FFS EXPERT LEAGUE – WEEK 1: A LESSON IN MATCHUPS
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By Andy Boyum
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The draft is over, and the schedule is set. Time to pencil in your studs and ride them as far as possible? Not so fast.
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Having a successfully executed draft is only step one in a long journey towards a Fantasy Championship. Sifting through the weekly bye-weeks, injuries, trades and waiver-wire claims are also very important milestones to accomplish.
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But, you’ve heard it a thousand times. And now we’ll make it 1,001…Fantasy Football is all about the matchups! Yes, of course, there are certain guys you are going to play without question every week they are available. Rather, it’s those second, and third tier players who will keep you up evenings deciding which one should get the nod over the other.
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Sometimes though, it’s really not so much about figuring out which matchup you need to exploit in order to post the highest possible points for the week, as it is to simply figure out which matchup will yield more points to your player versus your opponents’ player of the same position.
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In other words, how many points will they get from Player X? And, do I need to start Player Y, or Player Z, in order to out-point them.
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This can happen to a lot of owners who either A) had a very good draft with a lot of good value players in the middle rounds to fill RB2/WR3, flex type spots, or B) for whatever reason did not have a very good draft, which in this case, is my situation due to getting stuck in the Auto-Draft meat-grinder.
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Teams with clear-cut #1’s and 2’s don’t usually have this problem, since the drop-off from their starters to the bench is very dramatic. But these types of teams rarely, in my experience, win it all. It’s the former teams that endure the weekly struggles of depth analysis that, if successful, will hoist their league trophy at the end of the season.
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It sounds simple enough, granted. If it was, however, there would be a lot less agonizing week after week from owners who are unable to accomplish this “simple” task. Moreover, longtime fantasy radio shows wouldn’t have over an hour’s worth of hold time just so you have the opportunity to ask the experts what you should do.
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Therefore, I will outline my Week 1 decision-making process, and how I intend to take down my first opponent of the year, Xtreme Team.
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My Roster:
Philip Rivers vs MN
Malcolm Floyd vs MN
Danny Amendola vs PHI
Jeremy Maclin @ STL
Adrian Peterson @ SD
Shonn Greene vs DAL
Owen Daniels vs IND
DeAngelo Williams @ AZ
Rob Bironas @ JAC
Ravens vs PIT
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His Roster:
Tony Romo @ NYJ
Miles Austin @ NYJ
Marques Colston @ GB
Mike Sims-Walker vs PHI
Arian Foster vs IND
Fred Jackson @ KC
Jermichael Finley vs NO
Rob Gronkowski @ MIA
Josh Brown vs PHI
Cowboys @ NYJ
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On paper these rosters aren’t even close. Xtreme should absolutely destroy me, especially since this is a PPR league. But upon closer review, this matchup is actually closer than meets the eye. In fact, Yahoo has projected Xtreme slightly favored at 112.36 to 110.48.
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How can that be, you ask? Matchups, I tell you! Let me break this down.
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Rivers is this weeks highest rated Quarterback going against Minnesota’s anemic pass defense. Romo, on the other hand, has to deal with the vaunted Jets secondary.
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Malcom Floyd may be the third, or even fourth option in the Chargers passing game, but the Vikings defense will spend much of the day in thin nickel coverage and matchups will be exploited. I see 4-5 catches for Floyd for 40-50 yards – that’s double digits. Miles Austin will be taking a long tour of Revis Island, bad hammy and all.
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Amendola will have a tough go of it in the slot versus Asante Samuel. Likewise goes for Sims-Walker on the end versus Nnamdi. This is a wash.
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Jeremy Maclin may be able to find some open space downfield. Colston has to deal with a bum knee and Charles Woodson. I’d take an undisclosed illness over that, any day.
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Adrian Peterson will get a ton of work. So will Arian Foster. This is Xtreme’s advantage due to the fact that San Diego will stack the box and game plan for AP, forcing McNabb to beat them on his own. Peterson could be rendered useless if the Vikings get down too far too fast.
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Shonn Greene should be able to find room to run on Dallas, especially with Terrance Newman out and Holmes & Burress stretching the field. Fred Jackson could find it tough sledding behind Buffalo’s pathetic offensive line.
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Owen Daniels should stay within a couple of points of Finley, but actually has the potential to pass him if Houston can control time of possession.
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DeAngelo’s last visit to Arizona yielded 158 combined yards from scrimmage. If preseason is any indicator, Aaron Hernandez seems to be more the preferential Tight End to Brady than Gronkowski.
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Tennessee should be able to move the ball up and down the field on Jacksonville, setting up Bironas all day long. I’m not sure I can say the same for Josh Brown, who may end up having to make every long distance FG opportunity count in order to score big.
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The Ravens defense is the Ravens defense…consistent. Over the last six regular season games versus Pittsburgh they have given up an average of 17 points, including holding them to two touchdowns or less in both matchups last season. Dallas will be without Terrance Newman, and Sanchez will exploit the matchup. If the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t get into a rhythm and keep their defense off of the field, it will be a long day for them. In this league we get a six point bonus for our defense if they hold them under 14 points, two points for under 20. Last year the Jets scored 367 points, or 22.9 points per game.
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The projected points are just about right for this week’s matchup. I feel very strongly that I may have more of an advantage than first glance would suggest. It will basically come down to whether or not Adrian Peterson can hang with Arian Foster.
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If Foster does not play, I will win easily. But I’m not expecting that.
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Last year Foster put up a ridiculous 231 yards and 3 TD’s against Indy in the season opener. The last time Peterson saw the Chargers, he hung a record breaking 296 yards and 3 TD’s on them.
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LESTERS LEGENDS – 1
XTREME TEAM – 0
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And that, my friends, is why Matchups Matter!
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Feel free to follow along…
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http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/2011ffsexpertleague
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Andy Boyum
Farmington, MN
Fantasy Football enthusiast since 1999
Commissioner: Purlple Pride Fantasy League 2002-present: 1 Championship (2004)
RT Sports Commissioner Money League Champion: 2003 & 2005
Keeper League Champion 2006, 07 & 09
Yahoo PPR Champion: 2010
