Is Hakeem Nicks Overvalued?

Aug 9, 2010


Image courtesy of Icon SMI

 

Hakeem Nicks had a solid rookie season for the Giants last year. He caught 47 passes for 790 yards (16.8 ypc) and 6 TDs. He had 411 yards after the catch, which is an impressive number given his relatively few receptions. He is big at 6’0″, 215 lbs with good speed, making him difficult to bring down. He should turn in another solid season, but are people drinking a little too much of the Giants’ Kool-Aid?

 

Nicks has an ADP of 53 (19th WR) according to Mock Draft Central. I have him as my 24th WR (click to see my WR rankings), but I wouldn’t be comfortable taking him quite so early. I prefer the likes of Dwyane Bowe, Percy Harvin, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Pierre Garcon, and others that have lower ADPs. If Nicks is on my team, it will be as a WR3. I don’t see that happening based on this scenario.

 

It’s not that I dislike him, but I am going to temper my expectations. I am predicting 65 catches for 950 yards and 6 TDs. Not bad numbers, but not numbers you expect out of the fifth pick of the fifth round in fantasy drafts either. Not unless they are coming from a tight end.


The problem is the Giants have a lot of options in the passing game. Steve Smith is the clear #1. Mario Manningham figures to see at least as many targets as Nicks. Kevin Boss and Ahmad Bradshaw, provided they can stay healthy, should also have decent roles in the passing attack.


I’m also expecting a more balanced attack this year. The Giants attempted 542 passes to just 443 running plays. I would expect fewer attempts from Manning and more carries from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Andre Brown, if he can recover from his Achilles injury, could formulate the three-head monster the Giants used with great success in 2008.


If the Giants are running more and passing less, it stands to reason the G-men WRs will suffer, especially considering how many quality options they have. Throw in his injury history from last year, and I just can’t trust him quite at 53.


What are your thoughts on Hakeem Nicks?

 

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2 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. giants fan
    October 31st, 2010 at 10:55 pm #

    damn kinda trashin my man here…To be honest I was a little worried when the G-men drafted him but in my most unbiased opinion…hes going to be great. the tools are there, he has tons of potential. midway through the season hes the clear #1 but steve smith still gets his targets. hes a big play guy…cathces it short and runs for the td…hes done it many times. the guy gets in the endzone and i love it !

  2. LestersLegends
    October 31st, 2010 at 10:57 pm #

    NY hype had me skeptical about Nicks and Shonn Greene. I was right about Greene (so far), but dead wrong about Nicks. He’s a beast.

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