Can Kevin Correia Sustain His Early Success?

May 10, 2011


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Kevin Correia has got out of the gates quickly winning five of his seven decisions while posting a 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
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He has given up two or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts. He had a solid season in 2009 going 12-11 with a 3.91 ERA in 198 innings for the Padres, but for the most part has been nowhere near a fantasy option. So at 30 has he finally arrived or will he come crashing down?
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There are some indications that it will be the latter. For starters, his WHIP is well off his career mark of 1.42. While it is possible to improve in that category, one that dramatic at his age seems unlikely for the course of the year.
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Correia’s BABIP is also significantly lower at .237. His career mark is .295, and in the past three years when he had 78 of his 112 career starts his BABIPs were .330, .294, and .302 respectively. The likelihood that his BABIP remains below .250 is low considering his history.
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Correia’s strand rate (70.5) is in tune with his history, but his K/9 is down significantly. Correia’s rates were 6.45 and 7.14 the past two years, but just 4.08 this year. If his K/9 rate continues to remain low, it could catch up with him.
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Another thing to be cautious of is the fast start Correia had last year. He was 4-1 in April with a 3.86 ERA before finishing 6-9 with a 5.77 ERA the rest of the way.
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The warning signs don’t mean you should avoid Correia. In fact, he makes a decent start tonight against a struggling Dodgers team. I’m just urging you to use caution with him.
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