Is Mike Sims-Walker Overvalued?
If you look at the aggregate numbers Mike Sims-Walker had a good season. He caught 63 passes for 869 yards and 7 TDs. In Weeks 2 through 11 he averaged 86.8 yards per game with 6 TDs in 8 games (he missed Week 5 and had a bye in Week 7). That’s an average of 13.18 fantasy points per game, which justifies his ADP of 18 among WRs (52 overall) according to Mock Draft Central. Who wouldn’t want those numbers?
There is more to the story though. For instance, he finished with an average of 29.2 yards over the last six weeks of the year, scoring just one TD over that stretch. Aside from a Week 15 six catch, 64 yard, TD performance, he was unusable in down the stretch.
He was also a guy to avoid like the plague in road games. His splits are staggering:
Home: 8 games, 44 catches, 637 yards, 6 TDs
Road: 7 games, 19 catches, 232 yards, 1 TD
What are you supposed to do with that?
It’s not like the Jaguars surrounded him with playmakers to take away some of the defensive focus on him in passing situations. Sure they have Maurice Jones-Drew, who commands the majority of the attention on offense, but that’s it. Mike Thomas (48, 453, 1), Troy Williamson, Kassim Osgood offer little help at WR. Marcedes Lewis (32, 518, 2) is a decent option at TE, but it’s not like teams are game planning for him.
Plus, he’s going to face some tough cornerbacks at home like Champ Bailey (Week 1), Asante Samuel (Week 3), Cortland Finnegan (Week 6), and Nnamdi Asomugha (Week 14). He’s going to have to be more productive on the road with that schedule.
These factors have Sims-Walker lower on my board (click to see my 2010 fantasy WR rankings) than the majority. I simply do not trust him as a WR2, especially one that is going off the board in the 5th round.
Prediction: 70 catches, 910 yards, 5 TDs
What do you expect from Mike Sims-Walker?
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