What Does MLB Postseason Success Portend?
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By Dan Rauer (http://dansotherworld.blogspot.com)
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There are many people in the sport analysis world that like to believe that the postseason is where the talent rises to its optimal level for a player. This is the time when adjustments are made, a new plateau is reached, breakout stars are defined, and they can continue down that path for the rest of that career. It has happened before at some point in the past; young players have become household names, stars have become elite players, all spurred by big performances in big moments.
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The question then becomes how reliable are these big performances in predicting the coming year. One rudimentary method is to use OPS (on base percentage+ slugging percentage) as a catch-all for production during the playoffs. For this exercise, I looked at the previous three years playoff heroes of varying nature. Who was identified were players that had a greater than .800 OPS for two consecutive playoff series in 2008-2010. For those players, that season’s OPS and the next season’s OPS were shown for comparison purposes. Here are the lists.
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A cursory look at the small data set here shows that it is unlikely that merely showing excellent performance during the postseason means an increase in performance for the following season. For many of these players, because the limit for a great playoff outing was set low for an elite player, the performance of the following season was merely due to traveling on the next step along the career continuum. It may also be that circumstances surrounding that player’s situation for the following season changed, whether it being on a different team or battling injuries during the season.
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It’s instructive to examine a couple cases more closely.
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From 2010, Curtis Granderson : The incredible 2011 season of Curtis Granderson is well-documented here and many other places. The turnaround really began in September 2010, when he had a .958 OPS with 9 HR and 25 RBI. This just continued into the postseason with a >1.000 OPS for all three series combined. This was an example of a player having a true breakout to another level, though it did start a month previously.
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From 2009, Carlos Ruiz: Carlos Ruiz had never been known as a dangerous hitter while on the high scoring Phillies teams of 2007-2009. In the postseason of 2009, he had an over 1.200 OPS in both the NLCS and World Series, showing both increased plate discipline (12 BB vs. 4 K) and power. In 2010, the increased plate discipline continued to the tune of a career high 55 BB and .400 OBP. This was an example of a player who used the postseason as a springboard to a career season.
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From 2008, Pat Burrell: This one is a cautionary case. Even though the performance during the 2008 regular season and postseason (the NLDS and NLCS, specifically) were in line with his career arc, the change in teams and ballparks along with sudden aging, caused a decrease in his production in the previous season. Be aware of changed situations for all-star level, but not elite players.
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In a sense, it is possible to take one’s game to another level during the postseason and maintain that type of performance during the next regular season. There’s just no certain way to predict who exactly that will be. In other words, don’t overpay for David Freese, he won’t have a 1.600 OPS next year.
