Can Scott Rolen Keep Rolling?

Jun 27, 2011

Scott Rolen had 12 RBI in March/April, but was hit .217. He straightened his average out in May to .271, but he only knocked in six runs. Rolen has put it together in June, hitting .306 for the month with 14 RBI. His OPS was around .700 entering the month, but he has the mark up to .736 thanks to his June .845 OPS. Can he keep it up?
If last year is any indication the answer is no.  He wasn’t terrible in the second half last year, but he was significantly better in the first half.
Pre-All-Star Break:  283 ABs, .290 batting average, 43 runs, 17 HRs, 57 RBI, .909 OPS
Post All-Star Break:  188 ABs, .277 batting average, 23 runs, three HRs, 23 RBI, .772 OPS
Rolen also tailed off in 2009 (.320 batting average, .909 OPS before the break, .282, .785 after it). The last time his OPS did not drop after the All-Star Break was 2007. The last time his average did not drop after the break was 2003. That’s a significant history of regression.
The good news is even if you should expect his numbers to fade, he can still be helpful. His second half numbers, aside from the lack of home runs, were still helpful to fantasy teams. He also plays a shallow position. As long as Rolen is healthy, keep trotting him out there. Sure he’ll get the occasional day off, but that should help in the long run.
Besides, he’s not guaranteed to fade just because he has a history or second half regression. The likelihood is stronger, but there’s no reason to hit the panic button until you have to.

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3 Responses so far | Have Your Say!

  1. Imaginary Diamond » Blog Archive » Fantasy baseball links: The rise of Lonnie Chisenhall; Scott Rolen starting to produce
    June 29th, 2011 at 5:07 am #

    [...] Scott Rolen be able to continue his hot hitting? Lester’s Legends takes a look at his impressive month of [...]

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