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2009 NBA Mock Draft #4

24 June 2009
Here’s my fourth 2009 NBA Mock Draft. (Updated 6/25)

1.  Los Angeles Clippers – Blake Griffin
No doubt.
Previous pick:  Blake Griffin, Griffin, Griffin

2.  Mempis Grizzlies – Hasheem Thabeet
He’s slipping a little, but with such a short supply of big men, he’ll go #2 (maybe tot he Wolves) and learn to play Offense on the fly while he provides a defensive presence.
Previous Pick:  Jordan Hill, Hasheem Thabeet, Thabeet

3.  Oklahoma City – James Harden
Though he doesn’t fill an immediate need, Harden is a polished scorer who should take some pressure off of Durant.
Previous Pick:  Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Hill

4.  Sacramento Kings – Ricky Rubio
The Wolves may trade up to get Rubio, but if he’s there at four, he’ll be a King.
Previous Pick:  Ricky Rubio, Rubio, Rubio

5. Minnesota Timberwolves – Tyreke Evans
If the Wolves hang onto this pick, I believe Evans will be the choice. After trading Foye and Miller, the Wolves have an opening at the 2.
Previous Pick:  James Harden, Harden, Harden

6.  Minnesota Timberwolves – Stephen Curry
New Wolves GM saw firsthand what a shooter like Reggie Miller brought to the table.  Curry can run the point for the Wolves and open things up inside with his outside touch. 
Previous Pick: Brandon Jennings, Brandon Jennings 

7.  Golden State Warriors – Ty Lawson
I am going back to Lawson here.  He’s looked good in workouts and his blazing speed will translate well in Nellie’s uptempo offense.
Previous Pick:  Ty Lawson, Jrue Holliday, Curry

8.  New York Knicks – Jordan Hill
I have gone PG with my earlier picks, but an athletic big man would be a nice fit in D’Antoni’s offense.
Previous Pick:  Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings

9.  Toronto Raptors – DeMar DeRozan
With Evans gone I go back to DeMar DeRozan.  He’ll throw down plenty of Jose Calderon’s lobs.
Previous Pick:  DeMar DeRozan, DeRozan, Tyreke Evans

10.  Milwaulkee Bucks – Brandon Jennings
Another team I’ve changed my mind on a few times.  Jennings has the most upside of the PGs.
Previous Pick:  Stephen Curry, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holliday

11.  New Jersey Nets – Earl Clark
With Jefferson gone, the Nets could go for a wing player, but Clark’s size and athleticism make more sense here.
Previous Pick: DeJuan Blair, Blair, Earl Clark

12.  Charlotte Bobcats – Gerald Henderson
His Offense is great, but Larry Brown will love his Defense.
Previous Pick:  Wayne Ellington, Gerald Henderson, Henderson

13.  Indiana Pacers – Jrue Holliday
Holliday slides a bit, which makes the Pacers day.  Holliday will need to develop a bit, but his ceiling is high.
Previous Pick:  Eric Maynor, Maynor, Jonny Flynn

14.  Phoenix Suns – James Johnson
Poor man’s Shawn Marion.
Previous Pick:  Earl Clark,Clark, James Johnson

15.  Detroit Pistons –  Tyler Hansbrough
His energy and toughness should translate in the NBA.  Won’t be a star, but will do the little things.
Previous Pick:  Tyler Hansbrough, Hansbrough, Hansbrough

16. Chicago Bulls – DeJuan Blair
Blair gives the Bulls a big man that should be able to contribute right away.
Previous Pick:  Tyreke Evans, Evans, Blair

17.  Philadelphia 76ers – Johnny Flynn
Flynn gets to stay on the East Coast and gives the Sixers a PG that can run the offense and take the shot when needed to.
Previous Pick:  Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson, Lawson

18.  Minnesota Timberwolves – B.J. Mullens
Who knows what’s going to happen with this pick, but if the Wolves keep it they’ll take the big man here.
Previous Pick:  B.J. Mullens, Mullens, Mullens

19.  Atlanta Hawks – Eric Maynor
I still like Maynor in this spot.  A PG that should be able to play right away.  Ceiling isn’t high on him though.  Even if the Jamal Crawford deal goes down, they’ll still need a long term answer at Point.
Previous Pick: Patrick Mills, Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor

20.  Utah Jazz – Terence Williams
Jerry Sloan will love T-Will’s toughness on D.
Previous Pick:  Gerald Henderson, Terrence Williams, Chase Budinger

21.  New Orleans Hornets – Jeff Teague
Teague gives the Hornets a combo guard who could backup CP3 or play alongside him.
Previous Pick:  Chase Budinger, Budinger, Jeff Teague

22.  Portland Trailblazers – Omri Casspri
The Blazers covet Casspri, which is why they moved up two spots to get him.
Previous Pick: Jrue Holliday, Darren Collison, Collison

23.  Sacramento Kings – Austin Daye
Daye won’t start out of the gate, but is a nice backup to Jason Thompson.
Previous Pick:  James Johnson, Johnson, Austin Daye

24.  Dallas Mavericks – Darren Collison
The Mavs still get their guy at a lower price and pick up a couple second round picks.  Not bad.
Previous Pick:  Darren Collison, Austin Daye, DaJuan Summers

25.  Oklahoma City – Sam Young
Young can defend and score.  Not a lot of upside, but should contribute right away
Previous Pick:  Gani Lawal, Lawal, Sam Young

26.  Chicago Bulls – Chase Budinger
Bulls get the athletic wing with good range after Omri moves up to the Blazers.
Previous Pick: Derrick Brown, Omri Casspri, Casspri

27.  Memphis – Taj Gibson
The bottom of the draft is a crapshoot, but Gibson would give Memphis depth in the frontcourt.
Previous Selection:  Sam Young, Young, Taj Gibson

28.  Minnesota Timberwolves – Derrick Brown
The Wolves added Guards and a Center, so adding an athletic Wing is all that’s left.
Previous Pick:  Terrence Williams, DaJuan Summers, Patrick Mills

29.  New York Knicks – Patrick Mills
The Knicks will take their PG with the pick they bought from the Lakers.
Previous Pick:  Omri Casspri, Patrick Mills, Derrick Brown

30.  Cleveland Cavaliers – Wayne Ellington
Ellington can score, which should help take some pressure off LBJ.
Previous Pick:  DaJuan Summers, Nick Calathes, Wayne Ellington

Previous Mock Drafts
Mock Draft #1:  5/21/09
Mock Draft #2:  6/11/09
Mock Draft#3:  6/17/09

The Timberwolves didn’t waste any time making the first post-Kevin McHale move when they dealt Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the Washington Wizards for the #5 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.

The Wolves will also acquire Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, and Darius Songaila.  None of which will be Timberwolves relevant, let alone fantasy relevant.

In Foye the Wizards get a young combo guard, that should improve with a more defined role.  He can play alongside Gilbert Arenas and provides insurance in case Arenas can’t get healthy.  Miller gives the Wizards a wing player that can stretch the floor with his three-point ability.  He is also a solid rebounder and passer.  With Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and possibly Arenas as the main options, Miller and Foye will have a lot less pressure on them.  I don’t think they are good enough to be the 2nd and 3rd options on a team.  When Big Al Jefferson went down they were thrust  into the top two options. 

The Wolves could do a number of things now as they possess four first round draft picks.

2009 NBA Mock Draft #3

17 June 2009

 

Here’s my third 2009 NBA Mock Draft.  Click here for my latest 2009 NBA Mock Draft (6/24).

1.  Los Angeles Clippers – Blake Griffin
Blake is a lock for the #1 pick.
Previous pick:  Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin 

2.  Mempis Grizzlies – Hasheem Thabeet
Thabeet’s defensive presence is too much for Memphis to pass up.  They are set at Guard already with Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo so drafting Rubio or Harden doesn’t make sense. 
Previous Pick:  Jordan Hill, Hasheem Thabeet

3.  Oklahoma City – Jordan Hill
Hill is an athletic big man that should be able to get out an run with Westbrook, Durant, and Green.
Previous Pick:  Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill

4.  Sacramento Kings – Ricky Rubio
The Kings need Rubio’s star power in the worst way.  Not to mention his ability to handle the rock.  He could help bring Kevin Martin to the next level.
Previous Pick:  Ricky Rubio, Ricky Rubio

5. Washington Wizards – James Harden
Harden’s smooth play should translate well with Jamison, Bulter, and company.
Previous Pick:  James Harden, James Harden

6.  Minnesota Timberwolves – DeMar DeRozan
Though a PG makes more sense, the Wolves need players who can play right away.  DeRozan’s athleticism should get him minutes right away at 2 or 3.  
Previous Pick: Brandon Jennings, Brandon Jennings 

7.  Golden State Warriors – Stephen Curry
I keep changing my mind with Golden State’s intentions.  Curry’s stock rises again.  Curry and Ellis form an interchangeable backcourt.
Previous Pick:  Ty Lawson, Jrue Holliday

8.  New York Knicks – Brandon Jennings
Having missed out on Curry, the Knicks turn to a kid with the confidence to play PG in Madison Square Garden.  Let’s just hope he has the game to match. 
Previous Pick:  Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry

9.  Toronto Raptors – Tyreke Evans
Tyreke is a big climber as well.  He’ll look good alongside Jose Calderon in Toronto’s backcourt.
Previous Pick:  DeMar DeRozan, DeMar DeRozan

10.  Milwaulkee Bucks – Jrue Holliday
Jrue slides back a bit because of Evans’ leap, but remains in the top ten.  Gives the Bucks a solid PG if Ramon Sessions bolts. 
Previous Pick:  Stephen Curry, Jonny Flynn

11.  New Jersey Nets – Earl Clark
Concerns about Blair’s knees allow Clark to move up a few slots.  The athletic big man is a nice fit alongside Lopez.
Previous Pick: DeJuan Blair, DeJuan Blair

12.  Charlotte Bobcats – Gerald Henderson
Henderson is a good fit. Brings it on both ends of the floor.
Previous Pick:  Wayne Ellington, Gerald Henderson

13.  Indiana Pacers – Jonny Flynn
Flynn slides a bit to the Pacers.  Flynn can get up and go in a hurry.  Can penetrate and kick out to Granger.
Previous Pick:  Eric Maynor, Eric Maynor

14.  Phoenix Suns – James Johnson
With Clark gone, the Suns turn to another athletic forward in James Johnson.  Could be a poor man’s Shawn Marion.
Previous Pick:  Earl Clark, Earl Clark

15.  Detroit Pistons –  Tyler Hansbrough
I just like Hansbrough in this spot.  Tons of energy and toughness.
Previous Pick:  Tyler Hansbrough, Tyler Hansbrough

16. Chicago Bulls – DeJuan Blair
I had the Bulls going small in the first two mocks, but with Blair dropping a bit they add more size in the frontcourt.
Previous Pick:  Tyreke Evans, Tyreke Evans

17.  Philadelphia 76ers – Ty Lawson
Lawson would give Philly a ton of speed and should create havoc on defense.  
Previous Pick:  Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson

18.  Minnesota Timberwolves – B.J. Mullens
I wanted to go PG here, but the Wolves could use B.J.’s size taking some pressure off of Al Jefferson down low.
Previous Pick:  B.J. Mullens, B.J. Mullens

19.  Atlanta Hawks – Eric Maynor
Maynor gives the Hawks a true PG to step in when Bibby leaves.
Previous Pick: Patrick Mills, Jeff Teague

20.  Utah Jazz – Chase Budinger
Budinger gives the Jazz a solid Wing player that can stretch defenses with his outside shooting.
Previous Pick:  Gerald Henderson, Terrence Williams

21.  New Orleans Hornets – Jeff Teague
Teague gives the Hornets a solid backup to Chris Paul.  His versatility should allow him to slide into the 2-guard spot if needed.
Previous Pick:  Chase Budinger, Chase Budinger

22.  Dallas Mavericks – Darren Collison
Collison gives the Mavs a polished PG to follow Jason Kidd.
Previous Pick: Jrue Holliday, Darren Collison

23.  Sacramento Kings – Austin Daye
He will need time to develop.  The Kings aren’t going anywhere for a while so they have the time.
Previous Pick:  James Johnson, James Johnson

24.  Portland Trail Blazers – DaJuan Summers
Summers gives the Blazers an athletic Wing player.
Previous Pick:  Darren Collison, Austin Daye

25.  Oklahoma City – Sam Young
Sam gives them a wing who can score and defend.
Previous Pick:  Gani Lawal, Gani Lawal

26.  Chicago Bulls – Omri Casspri
I still like Casspri for the Bulls.  Gives them another outside threat.
Previous Pick: Derrick Brown, Omri Casspri

27.  Memphis – Taj Gibson
Gives them frontcourt depth.
Previous Selection:  Sam Young, Sam Young

28.  Minnesota Timberwolves – Patrick Mills
They took a Wing and a Big Man.  If they don’t trade away their any of their picks, they’ll likely grab a PG.  Mills could develop into a good one.
Previous Pick:  Terrence Williams, DaJuan Summers

29.  Los Angeles Lakers – Derrick Brown
With Odom likely gone, the Champs could use Brown to soften the blow.
Previous Pick:  Omri Casspri, Patrick Mills

30.  Cleveland Cavaliers – Wayne Ellington
The Cavs need someone who can score to help King James.
Previous Pick:  DaJuan Summers, Nick Calathes

Previous Mock Drafts
Mock Draft #1:  5/21/09
Mock Draft #2:  6/11/09

 

The Los Angeles Clippers stole the show in L.A. by winning the Blake Griffin Sweepstakes by drawing the first pick in the NBA Lottery.  The Clippers had the third best chance of winning the lottery with 13.8% odds.  Memphis jumped up into the second spot with the sixth best odds and Oklahoma City jump into third with the fourth best odds.  Sacramento went into the lottery the statistical favorite to get the #1 pick at 25%, but they fell to the 4th pick.  Washington had the second best odds at 19.9%, but fell to the 5th pick.  There are still only three teams to have won the lottery with the best odds since 1990.  That isn’t how it’s supposed to work.  It’s a pathethic system.  Minnesota once again did not move up.  They never hav in their history.  They slid down to the sixth pick despite fifth best odds.

Here”s the Draft Order:

1. L.A. Clippers
2. Memphis
3. Oklahoma City
4. Sacramento
5. Washington
6. Minnesota
7. Golden State
8. New York
9. Toronto
10. Milwaukee
11. New Jersey
12. Charlotte
13. Indiana
14. Phoenix

NBA Lottery Tonight

19 May 2009

nba-draft-lottery

Team
Record
Combos
1st
2nd
3rd
Sacramento 17 – 65 250 25.00% 21.47% 17.72%
Washington 19 – 63 199 19.90% 18.78% 17.07%
LA Clippers 19 – 63 138 13.80% 14.24% 14.54%
Oklahoma 23 – 59 137 13.70% 14.16% 14.48%
Minnesota 24 – 58 76 7.60% 8.44% 9.47%
Memphis 24 – 58 75 7.50% 8.33% 9.37%
Golden State 29 – 53 43 4.30% 4.93% 5.77%
New York 32 – 50 28 2.80% 3.26% 3.87%
Toronto 33 – 49 17 1.70% 2.00% 2.40%
Milwaukee 34 – 48 11 1.10% 1.30% 1.57%
New Jersey 34 – 48 8 0.80% 0.95% 1.15%
Charlotte 35 – 47 7 0.70% 0.83% 1.01%
Indiana 36 – 46 6 0.60% 0.71% 0.87%
Phoenix 46 – 36 5 0.50% 0.59% 0.72%

One of my least favorite sporting events kicks off tonight. Yep, I’m talking about the NBA Lottery. I have two serious problems with it.

First, the whole idea of a draft is to allow the worst teams to improve for league parity. However, in the NBA the worst team isn’t always rewarded because they implemented a lottery so teams wouldn’t throw games in 1985 to get Patrick Ewing. That’s ridiculous. If you can’t trust that teams are on the up and up, then why bother watching it? I mean baseball, football, and hockey don’t have lotteries. Why should the NBA? Don’t tell me it’s because with only five people on the court, it’s easier to control the outcome. In baseball a Pitcher can walk batters and groove pitches. In football a QB could throw picks. In hockey it would be easy to pass the puck to the opponent. If teams want to lose without making it look obvious, it can be done.

The second reason is they don’t show you the selection process. I’m sorry, but if you don’t trust your teams enough to do the right thing, why should I believe the league will. There are too many examples of how teams beat the odds for high picks.

2009:  LA Clippers got the #1 with the 3rd best odds
2008: Chicago got the #1 pick with the 9th best odds
2007: Portland got the #1 with the 7th best odds
2006: Toronto got #1 with 4th best odds
2005: Milwaukee got #1 with 6th best odds
2002: Houston got #1 with 5th best odds
2001: Washington got #1 with 3rd best odds (Michael Jordan’s first pick, hmm)
2000: New Jersey got #1 with 7th best odds (Former NBA exec Rod Thorn’s first year with NJ, hmm)
1999: Chicago got #1 with 3rd best odds
1998: LA Clippers got #1 with 3rd best odds
1997: San Antonio got #1 with 3rd best odds
1996: Philadelphia got #1 with 2nd best odds
1995: Golden State got #1 with 5th best odds
1994: Milwaukee got #1 with 4th best odds
1993: Orlando got #1 with 11th best odds (1 in 66 chances, hmm)
1992: Orlando got #1 with 2nd best odds
1991: Charlotte got #1 with 5th best odds

In all their years in the NBA Lottery the Minnesota Timberwolves have never moved up in the lottery. Since 1990 only three teams with the worst record got the #1 pick. That’s not exactly the way it’s supposed to work.

Enough of my griping. Here’s a video of what’s up for grabs:


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