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Last season Greg Olsen was a solid tight end in his second professional season, catching 54 passes for 574 yards and 5 TD.  Considering that he only started seven games and had Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman throwing him the ball, that’s actually pretty impressive.

He was actually the team’s second leading receiver in both catches (Matt Forte had 63) and yards (Devin Hester had 665), while leading the squad in TD.  Desmond Clark, who had been the starter, figures to be the second tight end this season, giving Olsen even more opportunity to mature and take the next step.

You also have to take into account that Jay Cutler will now be manning the QB position, a significant upgrade.  While Bears QBs combined for 3,229 yards and 14 TD, Cutler passed for 4,526 yards and 25 TD.  Needless to say, there are going to be significantly more opportunities to make plays, even in the dismal winter weather in Chicago.

Having not imported any significant WR to help upgrade the position, the extra completions have to go to someone.  While Forte figures to be one of the safety valves for Cutler, Olsen should be the other.  There were only seven tight ends who caught over 700 yards last season, a mark that I would fully anticipate Olsen exceeding.

The team’s tallest receiver stands at 6′3″, and that’s Brandon Rideau who has appeared in just two games after being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2005 by the Browns.  At 6′5″, Olsen should prove to be a prime target in the red zone and should be among the leaders in TE for TD.

With that said, let’s look at what I’d expect from him in 2009:

Receiving – 78 catches, 870 yards, 8 TD

Those numbers would easily place him among the top five tight ends in the league.  His ADP is currently at 79.75, the sixth TE coming off the board.  My original rankings had him at #7, but that obviously has changed.  When the new rankings come out, he’ll be at #5, having jumped ahead of Dallas Clark & Kellen Winslow.

What are your thoughts of Olsen?  How good do you think he could be?

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When to draft a tight end is always something that is tough to decide.  I compare it to drafting a catcher in your fantasy baseball draft.  Do you reach in the early rounds and get one of the elite?  Do you wait and hope one of the middle tier players can emerge?  Do you just wait until the last few rounds and pick up the scraps, figuring that there’s not much of a difference once you miss out on the elite?

Let’s take a look at when some of the tight ends are coming off the board and if they would be considered a good pick:

• Jason Witten (42.50)
  We’ve spoken about him in the past, but more importantly the idea of drafting a tight end in the fourth round.  Just how much of an advantage do you really think he gives you here?  No other tight end is coming off the board, on average, until the fifth round.  You would also be passing up on WR who have the potential to easily out-produce him or a #2 RB (Darren McFadden or Derrick Ward, for example), which doesn’t make sense, does it?  I’m all for position scarcity and getting one of the top players at a position, but this is just a little too high for my tastes and appears to put your team at a bit of a disadvantage.  At this point, I would ask you, if he was a WR would you select him in the fourth round?  If the answer is no, then don’t select him this early just because of the position he plays.
• Antonio Gates (51.24) & Tony Gonzalez (54.78)
  Both of these are going, on average, in the fifth round, a little bit more palatable of a spot.  By now you likely have both of your RB and either a pair of WR or a WR and a QB spot covered.  The WR coming off the board are probably comparable players and these two were the top two tight ends in TDs last season.  If you want to get one of the elite guys, this seems like the perfect round to do it.
• Dallas Clark (61.77)
  The consolation prize, if you will, as he’s the one TE who is kind of on the edge.  He could be among the elite, but he also could be as good as the rest of the pack.  Going on average in the sixth round, this one almost seems like a waste to me.  I know he has the advantage of Peyton Manning, but just because you miss the big three don’t feel forced to take Clark the next time you pick.  You could likely do just as well in the next round or two, instead strengthening your RB spot in this round (Knowshown Moreno, for example, has an ADP of 63.36).
• Kellen Winslow (75.70) & Greg Olsen (81.89)
  The seventh round appears to be the round for the high upside TEs and if I had my choice, this is where I’d be selecting.  Both of these guys will, at worst, likely be an average TE in 2009 but also could emerge among the elite in the game.  Considering the rest of your roster should be pretty well set at this point, the gamble is more than worth taking.
• Chris Cooley (86.30) & Owen Daniels (92.93)
  Missed out on all the rest?  Now is the time to just grab one of these guys and fill the void.  If you miss out on them, you might as well wait a while because how big of a difference is there really going to be between John Carlson & Vishante Shiancoe?  Probably not a very big one.

So, what do you think?  Which grouping of TEs do you like to shoot for?  What’s your strategy when it comes to the position?

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Tony Scheffler is a decent TE option as Kyle Orton has a tendency to throw to Tight Ends. He is, however, playing in an offense that typically doesn’t utilize TEs with great frequency. That said, as long as he’s healthy the Broncos will look for ways to get him the ball.  I wouldn’t look to draft Scheffler until the 15th round or so. I’m expecting 35 catches for 500 yards and 4 TDs.

 

Kevin Boss has the ability to be a solid fantasy TE, it’s just a matter of opportunity.  It appears as if Travis Beckum will take away some of Boss’ chances.  Still, Boss is a big, athletic target who Eli will utilize in the red zone.  Don’t expect a major step forward for Boss.  I’m expecting him to catch 35 passes for 450 yards and 5 TDs.

 

Jeremy Shockey could just as easily be one of the top ten fantasy this year as he could be a bust.  If he doesn’t let his big mouth and massive ego get in the way, he will be a bargain, going somewhere in the 12th round or so in fantasy drafts.  He also needs to stay healthy something that isn’t a given either.  I’m expecting 60 catches for 700 yards and 3 TDs. Though I expect more from him, his risk factor has him lower in my rankings.

Brent Celek was a force in the Eagles’ playoff run last year catching 19 passes for 151 yards and 3 TDs.  He finished with 27 catches for 318 yards and 1 TD in the regular season, but it’s the postseason heroics that have fantasy owners grabbing Celek as their TE2.  The Eagles have a ton of weapons, but Celek should continue to progress.  Most of the Eagle WRs are smallish, so Celek should be a go-to-guy in the red zone.  He’s going around the 13th round of fantasy drafts.  I’m expecting 40 catches for 480 yards and 5 TDs.

 

Will Vernon Davis ever live up to the hype?  I’m afraid it’s now or never for Davis.  I just don’t know if he will ever have the discipline it requires to be a reliable TE.  Obviously Mike Singletary has had some issues with Davis, and if the team struggles like it’s projected to, there could be more issues.  Davis may have one of the best physiques, but it takes much more than that.  He’ll probably go anywhere between 13th and 15th round in fantasy drafts, but I’d let someone else have that headache.  I’m putting him at 38 catches for 420 yards and 3 TDs.

Anthony Fasano was very up and down last year with just four games with 40+ yards, but he delivered the goods with 7 TDs.  I wouldn’t expect him to come near that number, but he should be an adequate TE2.  He’s been going around the 13th round in fantasy drafts, but I would wait a couple rounds more provided there were comparable TEs still available.  I’m predicting 35 catches for 395 yards and 4 TDs.

 

Brandon Pettigrew has been slowed by a thigh injury this camp and his fantasy value is fading fast.  The more time he misses, the harder it will be for Pettigrew to catch up.  I wouldn’t even bother drafting him unless you are in a deep dynasty league.  Just keep an eye on him and watch how he progresses during the year.  If he shows signs of catching on, feel free to snatch him up.  At this point my expectations are very low.  20 catches for 320 yards and 2 TDs.

 

Bo Scaife had a great year with 58 catches for 561 yards and 2 TDs, but I expect him to take a major step back with the emergence of Rookie Jared Cook.  The Titans also brought in Nate Washington and Kenny Britt so look for them to rely on Scaife much.  He’s worth a roster spot until he proves otherwise, but I would wait until the very end of the draft to grab him.  I’m predicting 30 catches for 380 yards and 2 TDs.

 

Marcedes Lewis had a decent 2008 season with 41 catches for 489 yards and 2 TDs.  His 2007 numbers were fairly similar with 37-391-2.  He dropped a ton of passes last year though, and if that trend continues he could find himself on the bench.  He’s a decent bye week replacement.  I probably wouldn’t draft him, but would consider him when my starter went on bye.  My prediction is 38 catches for 420 yards and 2 TDs.

Todd Heap is no longer the player he once was.  Plus, the Ravens brought in TE L.J. Smith, which will cut down on Heap’s looks.  You can use him as a bye week replacement, but I wouldn’t do so against a team with a good pass rush.  Heap will be in blocking mode during those weeks.  I’m expecting 30 catches for 325 yards and 2 TDs.

Donald Lee regressed last year from 48-575-6 in 2007 to 39-303-5 last year.  The emergence of Jermichael Finley should continue to take a toll on Lee’s production.  Lee could be utilized more as a blocker with Finley getting the looks in passing situations.  It’s certainly something to monitor before you draft Lee.  I’d probably hold off on a backup until my bye week rather than roll with Lee.  I’m expecting 25 catches for 285 yard and 4 TDs.

Chase Coffman will eventually be an asset in the passing game for the Bengals, but he will have to make an adjustment to playing Tight End at the pro level.  That means learning how to block, something he wasn’t asked to do a lot of at Missouri.  Once he catches on, look for Coffman to be a decent TE2 option.  Again, I wouldn’t draft him unless you are in a deep dynasty league.  My prediction is 20 catches for 280 yards and 3 TDs.

Dustin Keller had a nice Rookie year with 48 catches for 535 yards and 3 TDs.  He was really beginning to pick up steam in Weeks 10-13 averaging 6.75 catches for 78.25 yards before the wings fell off the Jets and Brett Favre’s arm went limp.  With limited options to catch the ball and a green QB in Kellen Clemens or Mark Sanchez, look for Keller to see plenty of targets as their check down option.  I’m afraid the TDs are going to be few and far between, but he should be a solid, low end TE1 making him a solid value as he’s going around the 12th Round in fantasy drafts.  His value increases in PPR leagues.  I’m expecting 70 catches for 800 yards and 3 TDs.

Visanthe Shiancoe has to be pleased with the addition of Brett Favre as Favre has traditionally liked going to Tight Ends in the red zone (Mark Chmura, Bubba Franks, Donald Lee). He probably won’t see an increase in looks with the addition of Percy Harvin, who should get plenty of work in the slot, but he could keep his TD total high to maintain his fantasy value.  He’s going around the 12th Round of fantasy drafts and is a borderline TE1 and a solid TE2.  Personally I would TE earlier so I wouldn’t have to rely on Shiancoe as my #1.  With Adrian Peterson, Chestery Taylor, Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, and Harvin, there are a lot of mouths to feed on the Vikings.  Consistency will be an issue.  I think he’ll finish with 45 catches for 575 yards and 5 TDs.

Heath Miller has been a fairly consistent TE2 the past four years.  He has averaged 42 catches for 483 yards and 5.25 TDs.  He’s very athletic, but is often used heavily in pass protection that his numbers are what they could be if he played in another offense.  That said, he still is a nice backup Tight End and spot starter. He’s going around the 13th Round of fantasy drafts, although I would wait a bit longer for a TE2 had I already picked a TE1.  I see him having similar production as his aforementioned career numbers.  40 receptions for 480 yards and 5 TDs.