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The price is going to be right for McNabb. His ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 103, which puts him as the seventh pick in the ninth round of 12-team fantasy drafts. He is the 14th QB coming off the board. I actually have him as the 11th QB (click to see my ranking), which would make him a starter, but he clearly has some risk associated with him.

 

He made the obvious switch from the Eagles to the Redskins. While Mike Shanahan’s concurrent arrival helps, there is still something to be said about switching teams after eleven years with an organization. Even if the transition is flawless, there are other factors that could jeopardize your fantasy team.

 

McNabb will turn 34 this year. While that isn’t nearly as old as the QB the Vikings are waiting on, it’s still an age where you feel the bumps and bruises a little more. If we were talking about an Iron Man like Favre or Peyton Manning, I wouldn’t stress it as much, but this is a guy who has missed multiple games in five of the past eight seasons. Washington tied for 4th in the league with 46 sacks allowed last year. They addressed their line adding rookie LT Trent Williams, but it is still cause for concern.

 

As are his lack of playmakers. His top wideout Santana Moss is a major downgrade from the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson. Devin Thomas (40 career receptions), Malcom Kelly (28 career receptions), and Terrence Austin (rookie) have to prove they can excel at this level. Tight Ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis both have ability, but how often will they both be running routes at the same time. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker aren’t making anybody envision Brian Westbrook.  McNabb has dealt with inferior talent before, but he at least had Westbrook to lean on.

 

McNabb also isn’t the runner he once was. He hasn’t topped 250 rushing yards in a season since 2003. He has only had 4+ rushing TDs twice in his career, the last one being in 2002. McNabb only has two years of 3600+ passing yards and has thrown 26+ TDs just once, back in 2004 when he had Terrell Owens.

 

So do you trust him as your starting fantasy football QB? Personally I do not. I would rather address the position early and get someone that I rank in the top 8 or so. If you do take McNabb, I urge you to add a high-end backup QB. One that you could envision becoming your full-time starter. Just in case.

 

What do you think of Donovan McNabb?


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Not according to Grant’s ADP at Mock Draft Central that has him going on average with the 21st pick. A number that is staggering to me, considering Grant is coming off a 1450 total yard (1253 rushing), 11 TD season. In fact, it was the second consecutive 1200+ yard season for the fourth year back that will turn 28 during the season.

 

He’s going after guys like Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, and Ryan Matthews who are far more unproven. He’s even going after WRs like Calvin Johnson and Miles Austin who have bigger question marks entering the new season.

 

Grant picked it up down the stretch averaging 92.7 total yards with 5 TDs in last year’s fantasy playoffs (Week 14-16). He didn’t turn in many monster weeks, but he didn’t have many duds either. He was a steady source of fantasy points all year long.

 

Grant has little competition for carries. Top backup Brandon Jackson always seems to get nicked up. Rookie James Starks isn’t ready to take on meaningful carries. Grant’s main threat is Aaron Rodgers stealing rushing TDs. The Packers would be wise to let Grant run in short TD passes and save their franchise QB from the hits.

 

Grant isn’t going to fool anyone for Ray Rice or MJD with his pass-catching ability, but he has averaged 24.3 catches for 152.7 yards in his three seasons.

 

I am expecting 1450 (1300 rushing) total yards and 9 TDs from Grant, which is enough to have him as my 8th ranked RB (click to see my updated 2010 fantasy RB rankings) and 9th overall (click to see my 2010 Top 50 fantasy rankings).

 

What are your thoughts on Ryan Grant? Would you take him in the first round of your fantasy draft?


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Hakeem Nicks had a solid rookie season for the Giants last year. He caught 47 passes for 790 yards (16.8 ypc) and 6 TDs. He had 411 yards after the catch, which is an impressive number given his relatively few receptions. He is big at 6’0″, 215 lbs with good speed, making him difficult to bring down. He should turn in another solid season, but are people drinking a little too much of the Giants’ Kool-Aid?

 

Nicks has an ADP of 53 (19th WR) according to Mock Draft Central. I have him as my 24th WR (click to see my WR rankings), but I wouldn’t be comfortable taking him quite so early. I prefer the likes of Dwyane Bowe, Percy Harvin, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Pierre Garcon, and others that have lower ADPs. If Nicks is on my team, it will be as a WR3. I don’t see that happening based on this scenario.

 

It’s not that I dislike him, but I am going to temper my expectations. I am predicting 65 catches for 950 yards and 6 TDs. Not bad numbers, but not numbers you expect out of the fifth pick of the fifth round in fantasy drafts either. Not unless they are coming from a tight end.


The problem is the Giants have a lot of options in the passing game. Steve Smith is the clear #1. Mario Manningham figures to see at least as many targets as Nicks. Kevin Boss and Ahmad Bradshaw, provided they can stay healthy, should also have decent roles in the passing attack.


I’m also expecting a more balanced attack this year. The Giants attempted 542 passes to just 443 running plays. I would expect fewer attempts from Manning and more carries from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Andre Brown, if he can recover from his Achilles injury, could formulate the three-head monster the Giants used with great success in 2008.


If the Giants are running more and passing less, it stands to reason the G-men WRs will suffer, especially considering how many quality options they have. Throw in his injury history from last year, and I just can’t trust him quite at 53.


What are your thoughts on Hakeem Nicks?

 


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Knowshon Moreno got a small dose of the NFL last year as Denver limited his carries with five games of ten or fewer carries. They wanted to make sure they didn’t overwork the rookie. Despite getting a little over 15 carries per game on the year, Moreno had 1160 yards (947) rushing and 9 TDs (7 rushing).

 

In the games he topped 15 carries he averaged 89.8 total yards (74.8 rushing) with 4 TDs in nine games. True, he never topped 100 rushing yards in any game on the year, but clearly the potential is there.

 

I expected him to have a more prominent role in the offense this year as he is their top weapon now that Brandon Marshall is gone, but his hamstring injury has me worried. Depending on how he responds to the injury, his numbers could be dramatically lowered. However, it happened at the right time and maybe he doesn’t miss much time. Not only could he eventually see more 15+ carry games once he’s back to full strength, but he could also see an increase in the 28 catches he had last year.

 

When all is said Moreno has the chance to be a top 15 RB (click to see my 2010 RB rankings) with 1450 total yards (1150 rushing), close to 40 catches, and 8 TDs.

 

People are going to be scared off because of his injury. I don’t blame them. His ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 32, but that number is going to drop. I will still take a chance on  him though. I just like his upside. He is a powerful runner that can score TDs and catch passes. He’s young, athletic, and didn’t get overworked last year. Without Marshall the Broncos should be a more run-oriented offense, which could lead to a monster season for the second year back.

 

What do you expect from Knowshon Moreno?


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The job of backup RB for the Jaguars was a lot like being the backup Vikings QB last year. There was not a lot of activity after Maurice Jones-Drew (312 carries) and David Garrard (77 carries) had their say. After the 363 touches that MoJo endured last year, one would imagine that the Jags would like to reduce his workload some in 2010.

 

That should play right into the hands of Rashard Jennings, a 6’1, 235 lb second year back. Jennings did not get a lot of work last year, but made the most of his opportunities by running for 5.2 yards per carry (39 carries for 202 yards). He also caught 16 passes for 101 yards and had a rushing TD.

 

Jennings will get some competition from rookie Deji Karim, but Karim is probably better suited for third-down duty at 5’9″, 209 lbs. Karim has blazing 4.37 speed and should serve as a change of pace back. Jennings would be more suited to carry the load if MJD went down. Even though MoJo is basically a sure thing at the stripe, Jennings could steal some of his short TDs.

 

Jennings has an ADP of 256 according to Mock Draft Central, which puts him as the fourth pick in the 22nd round, meaning he’s likely to go undrafted in most fantasy leagues. While I wouldn’t recommend stashing him on your bench, I would suggest keeping an eye on Jennings to see what kind of playing time he’s getting.  If nothing else he should get more work in than last year.

 

Prediction:  500 total yards (375 rushing), 4 TDs

 

What do you expect from Rashad Jennings?

 

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After last season’s playoff success in which he piled up 263 yards and 2 TDs in wins over Cincinnati and San Diego, Shonn Greene began climbing up draft boards in the minds of fantasy owners. Then the Jets signed LaDainian Tomlinson rather than bringing Thomas Jones back. That only strengthened the case for fantasy owners. While LT may still have a little left in the tank, it seems like he’s closer to E than Jones is.

 

While I like the second-year back out of Iowa, I am not as high on Greene as most are. Mock Draft Central has an ADP of 14 for Greene, which seems a bit high. Personally I don’t even have him that high among RBs (click to see my RB rankings) let alone all players.

 

He is going ahead of guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Cedric Benson, and Ryan Grant. I can see passing on the QBs since there are plenty of good options later in the draft, but an unproven RB over Moss and Wayne, who you can basically pencil in for 1000+ yards and 10 TDs? I don’t see how you do that based on a handful of games. Even guys like Grant and Benson, that have proved they can contribute for a full season without getting hurt, seem like wiser decisions to me.

 

The Jets do have an excellent offensive line and play smash mouth football, but don’t expect them to be as run heavy this year. Mark Sanchez is older and wiser. Plus, the Jets brought in Santonio Holmes to help the Jets have a more balanced offensive attack.

 

Taking a guy 14th overall in a fantasy draft that has just two career TDs is risky, especially when he caught as many passes during the regular season as you did. It’s not like I would expect him to improve dramatically in the pass-receiving department. Even in his one breakout year of college he caught just eight passes.

 

LaDainian Tomlinson will catch the ball out of the backfield, and with 138 career rushing TDs look for LT to get the call at the stripe. So basically you’re looking at a yardage machine that won’t get many receiving yards and is unlikely to crack double-digit TDs. That doesn’t sound like a top 15 pick to me.

 

Prediction:  1280 total yards (1180 rushing), 6 TDs, 12 catches

 

What do you expect from Shonn Greene?

 

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You aren’t going to find many bigger Larry Fitzgerald fans than yours truly. I have forever loved the way he approaches the game. He learned how to prepare for an NFL season from Cris Carter and followed in his footsteps of gathering WRs around the league for a grueling camp.

 

Not only does he prepare intensely, and take young players under his wing (Sidney Rice last year for example), but he never seems to be in conflict with the team or his teammates, let alone not getting in trouble off the field.

 

On the field is where he truly captivates me. He does not have blazing speed, but he simply finds a way to get it done. He has great hands, footwork, leaping ability, vision, etc. I should stop before I am accused of a man-crush on Fitz.

 

In six NFL seasons he has averaged 87.2 catches for 1177.8 yards (13.5 ypc), and 9.8 TDs. In four of his last five years he had at least 96 catches and double-digit TDs. In three of his last five years he had 1400+ receiving yards.

 

He’s been just a bout a sure thing for double-digit TDs as any RB out there the past few years. Not only did I consider him a first round pick last year, I considered him a mid-round (6-8) first round pick.

 

Things have changed though. Kurt Warner is gone and Matt Leinart is at the helm. Leinart has had his share of bumps and bruises, but he has had some success with Fitz in the past.

 

In 2006 they played in eight games together when Leinart was the starting QB. Fitz averaged 5.25 catches for 74 yards with 4 TDs. Those aren’t the numbers you have come to expect from Fitz, but he has come a long way from 2006. I am counting on Leinart to do the same when he’s finally given another chance this year.

 

Not only did he lose his QB, but Fitz lost his running mate. While Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are quality WRs, they aren’t Anquan Boldin. I’m not sure how much that will affect Fitz though. Last year Boldin missed Week 9 and Fitz torched Chicago for 123 yards and 2 TDs. In 2008 Boldin missed Weeks 5, 6, 16 & 17 and Fitz caught 20 passes for 362 yards and 6 TDs in his absence. In 2007 Boldin was out Weeks 4, 5, 6 & 14 and Fitz caught 31 passes for 432 yards and 2 TDs in those four games.

 

I also think the Cardinals will lean much heavier on the run with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower taking some of the pressure off of Leinart. Kurt Warner was an elite talent so it made sense to rely on his arm. Leinart has ability, but there is going to be a philosophy change in the desert.

 

I’m not expecting another 1400 yard season for Fitz, but I do have him ranked high among WRs (click to see rankings) with a projection of 100 catches for 1250 yards and 10 TDs. Those are first round numbers, but I can see the argument that I’m being overly optimistic.

 

Mock Draft Central has Fitz with an ADP of 11. I would put him right around there as well. I would prefer RBs like AP, Chris Johnson, MJD, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, and Steven Jackson over Fitz. I would also rather have WRs Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne as well. I do like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees a lot, but I’d rather grab Fitz and settle for a Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub, or Rivers later.

 

That puts Fitz at the 10th pick in my book, so yes I do consider him a first round pick still. Remember, I may be a little biased since I am such a big fan, but there aren’t many guys that you can basically pencil in for 1000+ yard and 10 TDs. I believe Fitz remains on of them.

 

What do you expect from Larry Fitzgerald?

 

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I think C.J. Spiller is so full of talent that it oozes out of his pores. The kid is going to be the real deal. I just think people should lower their expectations for him in his first year. In keeper leagues, by all means he should be flying off the draft boards, but in standard leagues, he’s going a bit early for my tastes.

 

According to Mock Draft Central, Spiller has an ADP of 59, 27th among running backs. I have him a few slots down on the RB rankings (click to see my 2010 RB rankings), but there are players going after Spiller that I would absolutely prefer over the rookie.

 

For example, proven RBs like Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Marion Barber, and Clinton Portis are higher on my list. Spiller is also going before Jason Witten, Hines Ward, Tony Gonzalez, Brent Celek, among others.

 

So why would I wait on drafting Spiller so early? For starters he’s in a terrible offense. Buffalo ranked 28th in points last year with a mere 16.1 per game. They were 30th in passing yards per game at 157.2. The Bills ranked 16th with 116.7 rushing yards per game, and therein lies the problem.

 

The Bills weren’t hurting at RB when they drafted Spiller. Sure, they’ve had it up to their ears with Marshawn Lynch, but Fred Jackson quietly had a solid season. He had 1433 total yards (1062 rushing, 371 receiving) and 4 TDs (2 rushing, 2 receiving). Plus, the Bills have been unable to find a partner in a Marshawn Lynch trade, meaning they have three capable running backs.

 

Like I said, I love Spiller in keeper leagues, but I would want him as an RB3 or a flex player. I much rather make sure I had quality starters at QB, RB, WR, and possible TE (depending on who’s available) before I take part of a RBBC at best, or a three-headed monster at worst, for one of the most anemic offenses in the league.

 

Prediction:  950 total yards (700 rushing, 240 receiving), 6 TDs (4 rush, 2 rec)

 

What do you expect from C.J. Spiller?

 

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Jared Cook is a freakish athlete. He’s big and fast with excellent leaping ability. His athletic prowess is reminiscent of Vernon Davis, who finally broke out last year. It was Vernon Davis’ fourth year in the league, which doesn’t bode well for Cook because Davis was much more of a “can’t miss” prospect.

 

Cook’s athleticism led Tennessee to take him in the third round (89th overall pick) of the 2009 NFL Draft. He tore it up in the Titans first four preseason games catching 17 passes for 159 yards, which led to serious sleeper status for Cook in last year’s fantasy football drafts.

 

Unfortunately injuries and a poor work ethic kept him in Rip Van Winkle mode. Cook had just 9 catches for 74 yards in 14 games. His top two games were 27 & 29 yard efforts in Weeks 5 & 12.

 

If Cook is going to break out this year, it will be completely under the radar. The Titans brought Bo Scaife back so it will take an injury or a miracle for Cook to ascend to the starting tight end role.

 

If you read some of OC Mike Heimerdinger’s quotes regarding Cook, you get a feel for where he’s at.  ”He needs to become much more consistent week to week if he’s going to play for us”. Heimerdinger also said ”he has made some plays, but he still has a ways to go. He flashes that talent, but we need him to do it all the time.” Clearly consistency is the issue. Scaife doesn’t have the upside that Cook does, but if he is anything, he is consistent.

 

2007:  46 catches, 421 yards, 1 TD
2008:  58 catches, 561 yards, 2 TDs
2009:  45 catches, 440 yards, 1 TD

 

I wouldn’t rule Cook out from figuring things out down the road, but I think it’s going to some more time. At this time, just keep Jared Cook in mind as a possible sleeper candidate. Just make him prove his worth before you consider adding him to your fantasy team.

 

What do you expect from Jared Cook in 2010?

 

 

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Odds are that if you go to a game in Denver this year you’ll see a ton of people rockin’ Tim Tebow jerseys. They are jumping off the shelves like hotcakes as the number one selling jersey this year. While Tebow fans are clamoring to wear Tebow gear, I urge fantasy owners to look away.

 

In traditional non-keeper leagues, Tebow is not even worth a thought. Kyle Orton, barring injury, is settled in as the Broncos’ starting QB. Even if Orton is injured or ineffective, Brady Quinn is more prepared to take over. Tebow could get some looks in the Wildcat and possibly mop up duty, but he won’t get consistent playing time.

 

In keeper leagues I would probably avoid Tebow as well. There are enough question marks surrounding Tebow’s ability to adjust to the NFL that it isn’t worth sitting on him for a year. Even if he does win the starting job next year, you would expect there to be growing pains. Plus, he doesn’t exactly have a lot of weapons to throw to following Brandon Marshall’s departure. Even if your league keeps five to seven players, is Tebow really worth hanging on to?

 

Dynasty leagues in which you keep the bulk of your roster are the only ones where he should be considered. Even then, you have to have some faith that he’ll excel at the pro level. Personally I don’t think he’ll ever be a quality fantasy QB. He may win some games, but he’ll be hard to rely on week to week.

 

So if you want to rock his jersey, I’ll accept that (and quietly wonder why you didn’t go for a throwback Elway jersey), but if you draft him in your fantasy leagues I will look to have you committed. It’s for your own good.

 

What is your take on Tim Tebow?

 

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