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The price is going to be right for McNabb. His ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 103, which puts him as the seventh pick in the ninth round of 12-team fantasy drafts. He is the 14th QB coming off the board. I actually have him as the 11th QB (click to see my ranking), which would make him a starter, but he clearly has some risk associated with him.

He made the obvious switch from the Eagles to the Redskins. While Mike Shanahan’s concurrent arrival helps, there is still something to be said about switching teams after eleven years with an organization. Even if the transition is flawless, there are other factors that could jeopardize your fantasy team.

McNabb will turn 34 this year. While that isn’t nearly as old as the QB the Vikings are waiting on, it’s still an age where you feel the bumps and bruises a little more. If we were talking about an Iron Man like Favre or Peyton Manning, I wouldn’t stress it as much, but this is a guy who has missed multiple games in five of the past eight seasons. Washington tied for 4th in the league with 46 sacks allowed last year. They addressed their line adding rookie LT Trent Williams, but it is still cause for concern.

As are his lack of playmakers. His top wideout Santana Moss is a major downgrade from the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson. Devin Thomas (40 career receptions), Malcom Kelly (28 career receptions), and Terrence Austin (rookie) have to prove they can excel at this level. Tight Ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis both have ability, but how often will they both be running routes at the same time. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker aren’t making anybody envision Brian Westbrook.  McNabb has dealt with inferior talent before, but he at least had Westbrook to lean on.

McNabb also isn’t the runner he once was. He hasn’t topped 250 rushing yards in a season since 2003. He has only had 4+ rushing TDs twice in his career, the last one being in 2002. McNabb only has two years of 3600+ passing yards and has thrown 26+ TDs just once, back in 2004 when he had Terrell Owens.

So do you trust him as your starting fantasy football QB? Personally I do not. I would rather address the position early and get someone that I rank in the top 8 or so. If you do take McNabb, I urge you to add a high-end backup QB. One that you could envision becoming your full-time starter. Just in case.

What do you think of Donovan McNabb?

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Hakeem Nicks had a solid rookie season for the Giants last year. He caught 47 passes for 790 yards (16.8 ypc) and 6 TDs. He had 411 yards after the catch, which is an impressive number given his relatively few receptions. He is big at 6’0″, 215 lbs with good speed, making him difficult to bring down. He should turn in another solid season, but are people drinking a little too much of the Giants’ Kool-Aid?

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Knowshon Moreno got a small dose of the NFL last year as Denver limited his carries with five games of ten or fewer carries. They wanted to make sure they didn’t overwork the rookie. Despite getting a little over 15 carries per game on the year, Moreno had 1160 yards (947) rushing and 9 TDs (7 rushing).

In the games he topped 15 carries he averaged 89.8 total yards (74.8 rushing) with 4 TDs in nine games. True, he never topped 100 rushing yards in any game on the year, but clearly the potential is there.

I expected him to have a more prominent role in the offense this year as he is their top weapon now that Brandon Marshall is gone, but his hamstring injury has me worried. Depending on how he responds to the injury, his numbers could be dramatically lowered. However, it happened at the right time and maybe he doesn’t miss much time. Not only could he eventually see more 15+ carry games once he’s back to full strength, but he could also see an increase in the 28 catches he had last year.

When all is said Moreno has the chance to be a top 15 RB (click to see my 2010 RB rankings) with 1450 total yards (1150 rushing), close to 40 catches, and 8 TDs.

People are going to be scared off because of his injury. I don’t blame them. His ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 32, but that number is going to drop. I will still take a chance on  him though. I just like his upside. He is a powerful runner that can score TDs and catch passes. He’s young, athletic, and didn’t get overworked last year. Without Marshall the Broncos should be a more run-oriented offense, which could lead to a monster season for the second year back.

What do you expect from Knowshon Moreno?

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The job of backup RB for the Jaguars was a lot like being the backup Vikings QB last year. There was not a lot of activity after Maurice Jones-Drew (312 carries) and David Garrard (77 carries) had their say. After the 363 touches that MoJo endured last year, one would imagine that the Jags would like to reduce his workload some in 2010.

That should play right into the hands of Rashard Jennings, a 6’1, 235 lb second year back. Jennings did not get a lot of work last year, but made the most of his opportunities by running for 5.2 yards per carry (39 carries for 202 yards). He also caught 16 passes for 101 yards and had a rushing TD.

Jennings will get some competition from rookie Deji Karim, but Karim is probably better suited for third-down duty at 5’9″, 209 lbs. Karim has blazing 4.37 speed and should serve as a change of pace back. Jennings would be more suited to carry the load if MJD went down. Even though MoJo is basically a sure thing at the stripe, Jennings could steal some of his short TDs.

Jennings has an ADP of 256 according to Mock Draft Central, which puts him as the fourth pick in the 22nd round, meaning he’s likely to go undrafted in most fantasy leagues. While I wouldn’t recommend stashing him on your bench, I would suggest keeping an eye on Jennings to see what kind of playing time he’s getting.  If nothing else he should get more work in than last year.

Prediction:  500 total yards (375 rushing), 4 TDs

What do you expect from Rashad Jennings?

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After last season’s playoff success in which he piled up 263 yards and 2 TDs in wins over Cincinnati and San Diego, Shonn Greene began climbing up draft boards in the minds of fantasy owners. Then the Jets signed LaDainian Tomlinson rather than bringing Thomas Jones back. That only strengthened the case for fantasy owners. While LT may still have a little left in the tank, it seems like he’s closer to E than Jones is.

While I like the second-year back out of Iowa, I am not as high on Greene as most are. Mock Draft Central has an ADP of 14 for Greene, which seems a bit high. Personally I don’t even have him that high among RBs (click to see my RB rankings) let alone all players.

He is going ahead of guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Cedric Benson, and Ryan Grant. I can see passing on the QBs since there are plenty of good options later in the draft, but an unproven RB over Moss and Wayne, who you can basically pencil in for 1000+ yards and 10 TDs? I don’t see how you do that based on a handful of games. Even guys like Grant and Benson, that have proved they can contribute for a full season without getting hurt, seem like wiser decisions to me.

The Jets do have an excellent offensive line and play smash mouth football, but don’t expect them to be as run heavy this year. Mark Sanchez is older and wiser. Plus, the Jets brought in Santonio Holmes to help the Jets have a more balanced offensive attack.

Taking a guy 14th overall in a fantasy draft that has just two career TDs is risky, especially when he caught as many passes during the regular season as you did. It’s not like I would expect him to improve dramatically in the pass-receiving department. Even in his one breakout year of college he caught just eight passes.

LaDainian Tomlinson will catch the ball out of the backfield, and with 138 career rushing TDs look for LT to get the call at the stripe. So basically you’re looking at a yardage machine that won’t get many receiving yards and is unlikely to crack double-digit TDs. That doesn’t sound like a top 15 pick to me.

Prediction:  1280 total yards (1180 rushing), 6 TDs, 12 catches

What do you expect from Shonn Greene?

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