2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Middle Reliever Options

26 March 2011

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Middle relievers don’t get the glory that starters or closers do, especially in fantasy baseball, but they can lower your ERA and WHIP while adding to your strikeouts without taxing your maximum innings pitched too heavily. Plus, if their closer gets hurt or is ineffective, you suddenly have a cheap closer.
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Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals: Clippard had 11 wins last year for the Nationals and four in 2009. He also racked up 112 strikeouts in 91 innings pitched to go along with a 3.07 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He could also earn some save opportunities if Drew Storen struggles. Clippard has 179 strikeouts, a 2.91 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP over the past two years.
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Jonny Venters, Atlanta Braves: Like Clippard, Venters will try to bridge the gap between the starter and an unproven closer. In his case it’s Craig Kimbrel. Venters could find himself in the closer role at some point. Even if he doesn’t, Venters could be useful to fantasy owners. Last year he won four games, sported a 1.95 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and struck out 93 batters in 83 innings.
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Matt Belisle and Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies: Belisle is a nice option because Huston Street can’t seem to make it through a season without getting hurt. Last year Belisle picked up seven wins, had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and had 91 strikeouts in 92 innings. Belisle was ineffective prior to last year so regression is a concern. Betancourt had five wins, a 3.61 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts in 62-1/3 innings. He has 527 strikeouts, a 3.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .220 BAA in 497-2/3 career innings.
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Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs: Marshall won seven games last year, had a 2.65 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts in 74-2/3 innings. Of course with Kerry Wood in the mix, he’s not as an attractive an option as last year.
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Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams, San Diego Padres: Gregerson won four games last year while posting a 3.22 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts in 78-1/3 innings. He had a BAA of .170. Gregerson had nearly identical numbers in 2009 (3.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .221 BAA, 93 Ks in 75 innings). Adams won four games last year with a 1.75 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, a .196 BAA, and 73 strikeouts in 66-2/3 innings. For his career he has a 2.31 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 246 strikeout in 237-2/3 innings. Adams would likely take over closer responsibilities if Heath Bell were to be traded.
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Nick Masset, Cincinnati Reds: Masset won four games last year with a 3.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 85 strikeouts in 76-2/3 innings. He has 155 strikeouts in 152-2/3 innings over the past two years.
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Clay Hensley, Florida Marlins: Hensley had three wins, a 2.16 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a .200 BAA, and 77 strikeouts in 75 innings last year. He could take over the Marlins’ closer gig if Leo Nunez struggles.
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Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox: Bard had a 1.93 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a .176 BAA, and 76 strikeouts in 74-2/3 innings last year. He has 139 strikeouts, a 2.61 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .197 BAA in 124 career innings. He could be in line, if he can hold off Bobby Jenks, for the Red Sox closer gig if Jonathan Papelbon struggles.
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Joaquin Benoit, Detroit Tigers: Benoit had 75 strikeouts, a 1.34 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a .147 BAA in 60-1/3 innings last year. Jose Valverde struggled in the second half last year. Benoit could step in if he failed to return to form.
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Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kuo took over for Jonathan Broxton last year, racking up 12 saves to go along with his three wins, 1.20 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, .139 BAA, and 73 strikeouts in 60 innings. If Broxton falters again, Kuo could once again step in. Even if he doesn’t close, his 309 strikeouts in 265-1/3 career innings are useful.
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Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Madson will open the season as the Phillies’ closer as Brad Lidge is on the D.L. Madson had He had five saves last year to go along with a 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts in 53 innings.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: 2011 fantasy baseball value picks, 2011 middle relievers, fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball strategy, middle relievers, MLB |

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value OBP Options

25 March 2011

david-ortiz
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With more and more leagues turning to OBP rather than batting average, let’s take a look at some value options to help you in that category. Average Draft Positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Daric Barton, Oakland A’s: Barton was ninth in the majors with a .393 on-base percentage. His 110 walks were second to only Prince Fielder (114). Only two of Barton’s walks were intentional, compared to 17 for Fielder, which shows how keen an eye Barton really has. His ADP is 334, but gets a little boost in OBP leagues.
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Brett Gardner, New York Yankees: Gardner is especially valuable in OBP leagues thanks to his .383 mark that ranked 18th in the league last year. He walked 79 times in 569 plate appearances. Throw in 97 runs and 47 stolen bases and you have a true value at his 179 ADP.
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David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: Big Papi had a .370 on-base percentage thanks to 82 walks in 606 plate appearances. His OBP, along with his HR and RBI numbers, make him a nice value at 177.
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Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles: Scott had a .368 OBP last year, which raised his career average to .354 despite a career batting average of .268. With his OBP and the 25 HRs that he has averaged over the past three year, he’s nice bargain at 282.
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Hideki Matsui, Oakland A’s: Matsui had a .361 OBP last year, and his career mark is .369. He offers some pop and RBI production making him a solid pick at 265.
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Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds: Rolen had a .358 on-base percentage last year. His career mark is .369 as well. He plays a shallow position (3B) and should contribute in the HR and RBI categories as well making him a good value with his 168 ADP.
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Ike Davis, New York Mets: Davis posted a .351 OBP as a rookie. His minor league mark was .371. He could easily be in the top 25 in this category this year. His ADP of 199 makes him a strong value.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value Saves Options

24 March 2011

jonathan-broxton
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Everybody loves Brian Wilson because of that crazy beard. Mariano Rivera is…the…best…closer…ever. However the closer position, perhaps more than any other position, provides more value picks. Average Draft Positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton had just 22 saves last year, and even lost his gig to Hong-Chih Kuo, but was one of the top closers in 2009 when he saved 36 games and struck out 114 batters in 76 innings. He has the closer gig back, and if he can hold onto it, a return to 30 saves with 90 strikeouts is a strong likelihood. His ADP is 164, making him the 15th ranked closer, though he has top five potential.
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Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies: Lidge bounced back last year to save 27 games and post a 2.96 ERA. With the Phillies four aces, he should get plenty of save opportunities. With an ADP of 192 he’s a terrific value.

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Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds: Cordero has averaged 39.3 saves over the past four seasons. His WHIP is usually a little more robust than you want from your closer, which can explain his 196 ADP, but if you’re looking for steady saves, Cordero is a great option.
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Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox: Thornton has been one of the best setup men in baseball the past few years and finally gets his crack at the closer position. Chris Sale is there if he falters, but he should be a solid value with his 203 ADP.
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Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals: Franklin had 27 saves last year and 38 in 2009. His ERA jumped from 1.92 to 3.46, but his WHIP fell dramatically from 1.20 to 1.03. His ADP is 204.
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Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins: Judging by Nathan’s 209 ADP, he’s at a discount because of concerns surrounding his return from Tommy John surgery. He was a top five closer before being injured, so he’s worth the risk.
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David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners: Aardsma comes at a discount (217 ADP) because he will miss the start of the season as he recovers from a hip injury. He had 69 saves the past two years so he should be a nice value pick when he returns.
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The Rest:
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (226) gets his first crack at closing.
Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (227) is wild, but will accumulate saves as long as he can lock down the gig.
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates (230) has waiting in the wings if he struggles.
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles (236) will get first crack at closing in Baltimore, but they have options if he isn’t up to the task.
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays (248) faces a similar situation in Toronto.
Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (249) is a decent option.
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins (317) has anything but a firm grip on the Marlins’ closer gig.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: 2011 fantasy baseball value picks, fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball strategy, MLB |

2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value WHIP Options

23 March 2011

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Not everybody gets Cliff Lee to lower your team WHIP. That’s OK, there are value picks that can help you win the category. Average Draft Positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves: Hudson had a 1.15 WHIP last year, which is right in line with his career mark of 1.25. He’ll turn 36 this summer so injuries are a concern, but his ADP of 149 make him a nice addition to your fantasy rotation.
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Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds: Arroyo has a career WHIP of 1.31, but he’s posted 1.27 and 1.15 the past two years respectively. He isn’t a flashy pitcher, but he gets the job done. With an ADP of 323 he’s a nice late round option to fill out your rotation.
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Dallas Braden, Oakland A’s: Braden posted a rock solid 1.16 WHIP last year. He only walked 43 batters in 192-2/3 innings because he challenges hiters. His ADP is 385 so you can probably pick him up after the season begins if he starts hot.
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Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles: Guthrie had a 1.16 WHIP last year, and aside from a 1.42 disaster in 2009 he’s been 1.23 or lower the past four years. He’s thrown 812-1/3 innings since beginning his career with Cleveland in 2004 and has a 1.28 WHIP making the likelihood of another solid pretty high. He’ll likely go undrafted.
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Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers: Don’t overlook Kuroda, who has an ADP of 177, or you’ll miss out on a guy with a career WHIP of 1.18. He only issues 2.1 walks per nine innings and has a career BAA of .247.
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Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins: Pavano has a lifetime WHIP of 1.33 so temper your expectations, but after posting a 1.19 mark last year, he’s worth considering. Especially considering he has an ADP of 290.
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Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks: Kennedy thrived in his first year with the Diamondbacks, posting a 1.20 WHIP. He was even stronger after the break with his 1.14 WHIP. His BAA at home (.235) and on the road (.222), in the first half (.235) and in the second half (.219), and against righties (.238) and against lefties (.218) suggests that his success was no fluke. He’ll just have to cut back a bit on his walks.
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Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Hughes had a 1.25 WHIP last year, which nearly mirrors his career mark of 1.27. He’s hard on righties (.253 BAA) and lefties (.235), plus he doesn’t issue a ton of free passes. He’s a nice option with his ADP of 154.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value ERA Options

22 March 2011

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You didn’t get King Felix. That doesn’t mean your ERA is shot. Check out these value picks that will keep your ERA nice and low. Average Draft Positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals: While I don’t think his 2.70 ERA is realistic, you have to take notice when somebody turns in such a low number. He imploded in September posting a 5.94 ERA, but still managed a 3.53 second half ERA. His ADP is 207 making him a solid value. You could just choose to use him at home, where he sported a 1.74 ERA.
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Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves: Hudson has a little better track record of posting low ERAs. He lowered his lifetime ERA to 3.42, thanks to a 2.83 ERA last year. As long as he can avoid injury, Hudson has shown the moxie to keep the ball down and to keep the crooked numbers off the scoreboard. His ADP of 148 puts him in the 13th round of 12-team fantasy drafts.
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Brett Myers, Houston Astros: Myers comes in with a 163 ADP. His 3.14 ERA over 223-2/3 innings certainly helped fantasy owners last year. Can he repeat his strong showing in 2011? Even if he regresses some, he’s still as strong value. His lifetime ERA is 4.20 so even that number wouldn’t blow up your category.
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Gio Gonzalez, Oakland A’s: Gio is a bit of a risk as his ERA was 6.24 entering last year. He figured some things out and posted a 3.23 ERA last year. With an ADP of 170, it’s a gamble worth taking.
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C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers: Wilson handled the switch from reliever to starter as well as could be expected. His ERA was 3.35, but more importantly was a mirror image before the All-Star Break (3.35) and after it (3.36). His ADP is 184 meaning he’s a player to target in the middle rounds of your draft.
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Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kuroda quietly posted a 3.39 ERA last year. His ERA has been south of 3.80 in each of his three years in the league. There is no reason to think the success won’t continue. The price will be more than right with an ADP of 177.
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Jon Garland, Los Angeles Dodgers: He will likely start the season on the DL so you likely skip him in your draft. However, when he comes back, keep an eye on him. He pitched in the N.L. West last year with San Diego and had success. He sported a 2.72 ERA in six starts with the Dodgers in 2009 and posted a 3.47 ERA with the Padres last year. An ERA south of 4.00 seems likely.
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Dallas Braden, Oakland A’s: Braden’s ADP of 385 means he’ll likely go undrafted. His ERA over the past three years is 3.75. There are worse options to fill your rotation out with.
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Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins: Sanchez had an ERA of 3.55 last year. His career mark despite his struggle with injuries is 3.74. His ADP is 245 so it won’t take a huge risk on your part to give him a shot.
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Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds: Cueto has improved each of his three years in the league. His ERA was down to 3.64. He should be a solid bargain with his 269 ADP.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value Win Options

21 March 2011

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Not everybody can land Doc Halladay or Jon Lester. Wins are hard to predict, just ask Felix Hernandez, but here are some value guys that in theory should help bolster your win total. All average draft positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: You know the Yankees are going to win games. Hughes has the talent to pick up a bunch of those victories. Though he slowed in the second half of last year, he finished with 18 wins. His ERA and WHIP should be solid enough, along with a fair amount of strikeouts, to make him a deal at his ADP of 154. Even with his disastrous 2008 season when he posted a 1.71 WHIP, Hughes has a lifetime WHIP of 1.27.
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Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins: Every year A.L. Central teams seem to load up to take down the Twins. Yet, almost every year the Twins raise another A.L. Central banner. Pavano has averaged 15.5 wins the past two years, including a solid 17-11 last year for the Twins. He once was a running joke for being injury prone, but has tossed 420-1/3 innings over the past two years. With an ADP of 295, you can hardly pass up the 14+ win potential.
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Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves: Hudson has an ADP of 151, so he’s a borderline value. Considering his ability to win at a high clip (lifetime .655 winning percentage) with a low ERA and WHIP (lifetime 3.42 and 1.25 respectively) I think he achieves value status.
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Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds: Arroyo won 17 games last year giving him three straight seasons with at least 15 wins. His ERA has been south of 4.00 the past two years making Arroyo a strong value with his ADP of 323.
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Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves: At some point Lowe will crap out or hang up his cleats, but until then he remains a solid pitching option. He has recorded at least 12 wins the past nine years, and has averaged 15 over the past three. His ERA and WHIP, aside from running high in 2009, have been solid since 2005. He’s just a nice veteran option to fill out your staff. His ADP is 331 so he’s not much of a risk if he struggles.
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Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Santana shook off the rust to win 17 games after dealing with elbow issues in 2009. He literally alternated good and bad months last year, but finished with a sub-4.00 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He also recored 169 strikeouts making him a solid value with an ADP of 211.
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Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Pelfrey won 15 games last year, and averaged 12.7 over the past three years. He was 10-3 at home with a 2.83 ERA making him a nice option to use when the matchups are right. His ADP is 265.
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Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: 2010 was a lost year for Beckett, but if he’s healthy he can be a dominant pitcher. His ADP of 176 makes him a great value pick.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball: Value Strikeout Options

20 March 2011

josh-beckett-pitching
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Everybody wants King Felix and Tim Lincecum, but there are some value picks that will help you dominate the strikeout category. All average draft positions are from Mock Draft Central.
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Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants: Sanchez was 13th in the majors last year with 205 strikeouts. While he hasn’t had trouble punching at least a guy out per inning his entire career, he does tend to issue a fair amount of free passes. Keep that in mind, but you aren’t going to get an elite strikeout guy at a value without having some risk. Still, his 164 ADP makes him worth the gamble.
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James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays: While Sanchez took a step in the right direction last year, Big Game James took two in the wrong direction.With an ERA and WHIP north of 5.00 and 1.45 respectively, I can understand if the thought of Shields on your team making you squeamish. His BABIP last year was .341, meaning a rebound should be in order.
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Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox: The dude is filthy. He struck out 181 last year. His WHIP isn’t pretty (1.39 last year, 1.49 career), but he was much improved in the second half posting a 1.34 WHIP compared to 1.44 before the break. The main source of the improvement was cutting his free passes in half, despite pitching just 24-2/3 fewer innings.
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Brett Myers, Houston Astros: Myers K/9 ratio (7.24) isn’t as good as the other guys, but he proved to be a workhorse piling up 223-2/3 innings pitched. He’s a durable pitcher, and that should help his counting numbers. If he can post similar peripheral numbers, his ADP of 163 will make him a steal.
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Gio Gonzalez, Oakland A’s: Gio’s K/9 decreased last year to 7.67 after sporting a 9.7 ratio in his first two seasons. Of course his ERA and WHIP went down significantly, which was more than a good trade-off. His ADP of 171 make him a nice choice to round out your rotation.
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Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins: He can’t pitch in the Bronx. That seems to be the case after posting the worst season of the past eleven years. The second worst also coming with the Yankees in 2004. He’ll turn 35 this summer so there is a chance that he won’t return to form with the Marlins, but with an ADP of 183 he seems to be worth the risk.
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Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: It’s hard to imagine a Red Sox pitcher, specifically Beckett to be a value pick, but his 174 ADP makes him one. Last year was horrible for Beckett. Between his back injury and general ineffectiveness, it was truly a lost season. When healthy he’s still a high-end strikeout pitcher. With the improvements Boston made on offense, he’s easily worth the gamble.
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Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins: Nolasco has the goods. He has 528 strikeouts in 555 innings over the past three years (8.6 K/9). His WHIP has been 1.28 or lower during that stretch while averaging 14 wins. He’s a nice option with an ADP of 166.
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Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals: Zimmerman is coming off 2009 Tommy John surgery. He recorded 27 Ks in 31 innings last year and seems to be back to the guy who struck out 92 in 91-1/3 innings prior to his injury. The Nationals will likely shut him down early, but he should be a nice value strikeout guy (ADP 181) while he’s going.
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