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ESPN is reporting that the Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox rumors have finally come to fruition. They say where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and this one had enough to see with the naked eye from the moon.
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The left-handed slugger will turn 29 during the season, giving the Red Sox a powerful first basemen with a good glove in the prime of his career. Gonzalez, playing with little protection in a pitcher’s park, averaged 34.3 HRs and 105 RBIs over the past four seasons.
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The move effectively ends the Red Sox pursuit of bringing Adrian Beltre back as Kevin Youkilis will slide over to third base.
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In his new digs, Gonzalez should be right up there with the likes of Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard in fantasy rankings for the 4-7 slots following Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto.
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The Padres reportedly acquired prospects, including top pitching product Casey Kelly, for Gonzalez.

Now an early look at the NL West.

1. Will Chris Young continue to regress?
I’m not sure his average can dip any lower than .212 so I would expect that number to rise. Even if he gets up to his pathetic .235 career average, he’s useless unless he can get the HRs and SBs back. The problem is he didn’t steal a base after June last year. He did have 8 HRs in 108 September/October ABs (13.5 AB/HR). His numbers should be better than last year, but without a guarantee that he’ll get to at least a 20-20 level, I can’t justify taking on his average.

2. Can Troy Tulowitzki follow up his monster year with another one?
Absolutely. While he set the bar high with his .297, 101 Run, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB season, he already had a similar season in 2007. He absolutely punished the ball after the All-Star Break hitting .344 with 52 Runs, 16 HRs, 55 RBIs, and 9 SBs in 259 ABs. If he can get off to a better start, he should easily have his best average to date. He should also have more Runs and RBIs. He hit a fair share of HRs and destroyed his previous SB total. I’m not sure he increases in either category. In fact, I expect him to steal fewer bases in 2010.

3. Will Jorge de la Rosa be a solid fantasy option in 2010?
I have no doubts that he’ll continue to rack up the strikeouts. He has averaged 9.17 K/9 the past two seasons. He was 0-6 through May and went 16-3 the rest of the way. What really impressed me though is how he got his ERA (3.39) & WHIP (1.29) in order after June. You may be able to get him at a value because of the Coors Field stigma placed on pitchers.

4. Will Manny Being Manny mean better numbers this year?
Manny started on fire, got suspended for steroids, and wasn’t nearly the same hitter when he returned. He still managed to hit 19 HRs in 352 ABs (18.5). What suffered the most was his batting average. He hit just .229 in September. He’ll turn 38 in the beginning of the year, and I have a hard time believing he’ll ever be that .320, 35, 120 guy ever again. He’ll still put up good numbers. He’s too good of a hitter not to, but make sure when you draft him, you’re not drafting him on name value.

5. Is Clayton Kershaw ready to become a star?
Kershaw did everything you would want out of a pitcher last year except win. His ERA (.279), WHIP (1.23), strikeouts (185), K/9 ratio (9.74), and BAA (.200) were all very impressive. However he managed to go just 8-8. With numbers like that, the Wins are bound to come. With a little more luck, he could double his win output in 2010.

6. Can Kyle Blanks hit 30 HRs this year for the Padres?
Blanks was impressive at times last year hitting 10 HRs in 148 ABs. While his foot should be healed for the upcoming season, I’m afraid 30 HRs may be too tall an order for the young slugger. Had he got more seasoning last year, it would improve his odds, but I still think he’s a long shot to hit even 25 HRs.

7. Will Adrian Gonzalez get traded?
Doubtful. He’s only due $10.25 million over the next two years. They still need to put butts in the seats so don’t look for Adrian to be gone anytime soon.

8. Will Matt Cain be overpriced in 2010?
Probably. If you’re drafting him on the 2.89 ERA he posted last year, you’re probably looking for trouble. While I think he should post a solid ERA, it will likely be at least a half a run higher in 2010. Even as brilliantly as he pitched last year he managed to win just 14 games. Even Tim Lincecum managed just 15 wins last year. The Giants just don’t have the horses on offense to win a bunch of ball games. What you’ll get is a guy who wins around 13 games, with a 3.30ish ERA, 1.25ish WHIP, and 180 Ks, which likely won’t justify where he’ll be drafted.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Is there anyone in Major League Baseball that produces like Adrián González with so little fanfare.  To do what he’s doing in a Pitcher’s park is simply amazing.  He’s batting .315 with 19 Runs, 9 HRs, and 20 RBI on the year, which puts him among the league leaders in all of those categories.  His OPS is 1.058.  It’s not like he’s a flash in the pan either.  Check out his past numbers
 
 - 2006:  .304, 83 R, 24 HRs, 82 RBI, .862 OPS
 - 2007:  .282, 101 R, 30 HRs, 100 RBI, .849 OPS
 - 2008:  .279, 103 R, 36 HR, 119 RBI, .871 OPS

It’s early, but he’s on pace for 123 Runs, 58 HRs, 130 RBI.  Yet his name is seldom mentioned when you are talking about the games best players.  I guess that’s what happens when you are playing in a small market like San Diego, and at a position dominated, at least in terms of media coverage, by guys like Albert Pujols, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, etc.  Since the start of the 2006 Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Carlos Peña, and Albert Pujols are the only First Basemen with more HRs.  Howard, Justin Morneau, Peña, Pujols, and Fielder are the only 1B with more RBI.

I’m certainly not asking for you to vote for him in the All-Star game.  Not with the start Albert Pujols is having.  I just wanted to help spread the word about San Diego’s best kept secret.

Baby Note:  The due date has come and passed.  Any day now.  Thursday at the latest.

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On to our regular scheduled program.

Sunday, May 25th
Adrian Gonzalez went 4 for 9 with a Run, 2 Doubles, 4 RBI, and a game-winning HR in the 18th Inning.  Carlos Quentin went 3 for 3 with 2 Runs, 2 HRs, and 3 RBI.  Kevin Kouzmanoff went 3 for 7 with 3 Runs, 2 HR, 2 RBI, and a Walk.  Bengie Molina went 4 for 4 with 2 Runs, 3 Doubles, and 3 RBI.  Jason Kubel and Eric Byrnes each hit a Grand Slam.  Carlos Lee had 4 RBI.  Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Seth Smith had 3 RBI.  Jorge Cantu scored 3 Runs.  Orlando Hudson, Nate McLouth, Geoff Jenkins (3 Runs), Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr. (3 Runs), Brandon Phillips (3 Runs), Joey Votto, and Andre Ethier each had 3 Hits.

Aaron Cook tossed a Complete Game giving up 1 Run on 4 Hits to improve to 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA.  Dustin McGowan (7 Innings, 1 Run, 7 Ks) improved to 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA in beating Gil Meche (6 Innings, 2 Runs).  Glen Perkins (7-2/3 Innings, 1 Run) improved to 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA as he outdueled Justin Verlander (7 Innings, 1 Run).  C.C. Sabathia (7 Innings, 1 Run) and Doug Mathis (6 Innings, 1 Run) dueled to no-decisions.  Jarrod Washburn gave up 2 Runs in a 6 Innings no-decision.  Micah Owings gave up 2 Earned Runs in 6 Innings to improve to 6-2 with a 3.73 ERA.  He hasn’t been hitting lately though.  Aaron Harrang struck out 9 in 4 Innings of scoreless relief.  Josh Banks pitched 6 scoreless Innings of relief for his first career Win.  Clayton Kershaw gave up 2 Runs in 6 Innings with 7 Ks for a no-decision.  Jose Contreras gave up 2 Run in8 Innings with 10 Ks in a no-decision.