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Full disclosure, I wouldn’t take Dustin Pedroia over Robinson Cano. I had Cano pegged as the top second baseman last year, and I’ll stand by that claim again this year.
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That said, it wouldn’t make anybody question your sanity too significantly if you opted to go with Boston’s little big man over his Yankee counterpart.
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Cano probably has a higher batting average ceiling than Pedroia, but you’re looking at a .305 lifetime average for Pedroia and a .308 average for Cano. In three of the past five years Pedroia actually finished with a better average. Cano is a more powerful hitter, but their OPSs (Pedroia .836, Cano .843) are nearly identical. Bottom line, that category is a wash.
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The remaining two categories are a split.
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Cano has the clear edge in  home runs and RBI, averaging 27.3 long balls over the past three years. He has also averaged 104 RBI, a number that is trending up. Meanwhile Pedroia has averaged 17.5 home runs and 81.6 RBI over the past 2.5 years. Obviously if you were looking for power numbers, Cano would be your guy.
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However , as I mentioned, they split the remaining four categories of 5×5 leagues. The run totals were fairly even last year, but Pedroia is averaging 110.9 runs over the past 3.5 years. Cano is 103.3. Pedroia has twice scored at least 115 runs.
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Where Pedroia really gains ground is in the stolen base category. He has averaged 21.4 over the past 3.5 years. The 26 bases Pedroia stole last year are only two less than Cano’s 28 over the course of his career. In the past three years he’s averaged 5.3 stolen bases.
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As I stated earlier, I still believe Cano is the top second base option, but if you are more interested in solid numbers across the board, and a bump in stolen bases, Pedroia could be your guy.
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david-ortiz-in-dugout
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Big Papi is off to a great start. The guy that has struggled to start the past few seasons is hitting .292 with 18 runs, six home runs, 18 RBI, and a .865 OPS. It’s hard to sit someone that is producing like Ortiz is, but this may be a good time to.
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While he is hitting .333 (12-36) against lefties this year, he hit just .222 against them last year, .212 against them in 2009, .221 in 2008. You get the point. For his career he is hitting .259 against them with an OPS of .799, as compared to .290 and .968 against right-handed pitching.
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This isn’t just ordinary left-handed pitching either. We’re talking C.C. Sabathia. He is one of the most dominating pitchers in the game.
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Big Papi, like most lefties, has had his struggles with Sabathia. His lifetime average is .237 (9-38) with two HRs (.714 OPS). Papi was one for three against him earlier this year, but was one for nine against him last year.
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You carry guys on your bench for a reason. It’s not just for Mondays and Thursdays when the baseball schedule is light. If you are locked in a close battle for batting average (weekly leagues), you probably have someone with a better probability to succeed.
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I’m not saying Big Papi can’t get it done against C.C. After all, he is one of the few guys that has had regular success (8-24) against Mariano Rivera. I just think if you have a solid option on your bench, you might as well let Papi sit this one out.
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josh-beckett-pitching
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Josh Beckett was a train wreck last year. He’s been alternating great and decent years since 2004.
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2004:  9-9, 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2005:  15-8, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2006:  16-11, 5.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2007:  20-7, 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
2008:  12-10, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
2009:  17-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
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Following that trend, he was due for down year, and did he ever.
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Beckett went 6-6 in 21 starts with a ridiculous 5.78 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He entered the year with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. After last year’s debacle, those numbers are up to 3.96 and 1.24, which is crazy considering he’s pitched 1528-2/3 innings.

Click to continue reading “2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Is Josh Beckett Done?”


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ESPN is reporting that the Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox rumors have finally come to fruition. They say where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and this one had enough to see with the naked eye from the moon.
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The left-handed slugger will turn 29 during the season, giving the Red Sox a powerful first basemen with a good glove in the prime of his career. Gonzalez, playing with little protection in a pitcher’s park, averaged 34.3 HRs and 105 RBIs over the past four seasons.
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The move effectively ends the Red Sox pursuit of bringing Adrian Beltre back as Kevin Youkilis will slide over to third base.
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In his new digs, Gonzalez should be right up there with the likes of Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard in fantasy rankings for the 4-7 slots following Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto.
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The Padres reportedly acquired prospects, including top pitching product Casey Kelly, for Gonzalez.


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Is this the year Clay Buchholz finally sticks in the starting rotation? He has all the tools, but once again the Sox are loaded at the position. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey certainly have their roles carved provided their healthy. That leaves a tussle between Buchholz, the expensive import Daisuke Matsuzaka, and the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield. Whether or not Buchholz can hold off the gyroballer or knuckleballer will go a long way in determining his fantasy value.

As long as he’s not traded, I’m going with the assumption that Buchholz will be a regular in the rotation. Dice-K will likely join him with Wakefield being the odd man out. Wakefield gives the Red Sox more flexibility in that he can pitch on much shorter rest, be it in long relief or a spot start. Plus, Clay and Matsuzaka have more upside.

Speaking of Buchholz’s upside, he’s a guy who threw a no-hitter in his second start. After a miserable 2008 campaign where he posted a 2-9 record with a 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, he got back on track with a 7-4, 4.21 ERA, 1.38 WHIP 2009 season.

2010 should be even better. Aside from having twice as many starts, which in and of itself will increase his fantasy value, the Red Sox bolstered their defense by adding Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre. Plus, the addition of John Lackey gives him another veteran pitcher to lean on and learn from.

Buchholz’s brilliant September in the heat of the Wild Card race should give him the confidence he needs to succeed. He was 4-1 in six starts with a sparkling 2.87 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .225 BAA. He even got a taste of the post season, earning a no-decision against the Angels. He gave up two runs in 5 Innings (3.60 ERA). He was in line for the win before Boston’s bullpen imploded. I expect big thing from Buchholz this year.

Prediction: 13-7, 3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 160 Ks

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones


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