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A flurry of activity is expected to take place in the next couple of weeks. Free agency will be the biggest piece of the puzzle to shape the 2011 fantasy football landscape, but trades will also play a major role.
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Three possible trade scenarios will have the biggest ripple effect for fantasy football owners.
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The Big Fish:  Kevin Kolb
Kolb is the name you’ve been hearing the most during the lockout. He’ll likely be the biggest name that is dealt, and will also likely shake things up the most. No matter where he’s dealt, he’ll be the starter so he’ll instantly find a place in most top 25 fantasy quarterback rankings. You probably won’t start him unless you are in a two-quarterback league, but he will find his way on fantasy teams as a QB2.
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The Kolb Factor Part I
No matter where Kolb is dealt you’ll see increased value for the receivers he’ll be targeting. The most likely destination is Arizona, which makes Larry Fitzgerald the prime beneficiary. Fitz had a solid season (90 catches, 1137 yards, six TDs) with Larry, Moe, and Curly at quarterback so getting a competent signal caller should return Fitz to the elite tier of fantasy receivers. The rest of the Cardinals’ receivers should get a boost as well, but none are worthy of being on most fantasy rosters. If the Eagles land Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the trade their fantasy defense will get up boost.
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The Kolb Factor Part II
This one is more of an insurance issue. If Michael Vick were to get hurt again, the Eagles’ skill position players like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Brent Celek could take a hit without as capable a backup in place. I wouldn’t change my rankings for any of those players, but it is something to keep in mind.
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Quietly Effective:  Kyle Orton
Orton was almost a secondary thought in the Jay Cutler trade, but he’s thrown for 7454 yards and 41 TDs (21 INTs) compared to 6940 yards, 50 TDs, and 42 INTs. Obviously if Orton gets a starting gig, he will once again have fantasy value again. I’d have to adjust my top 20 fantasy quarterback rankings to get him in.
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The Orton Effect
Like Kolb, a trade would hurt the contingency plans for the Broncos’ skill players should Tim Tebow get hurt. I wouldn’t bump Brandon Lloyd in the rankings, but I would be a little more concerned if I drafted him. He is rumored to land in Miami, which would help Brandon Marshall’s value immensely. Marshall would jump into the top 15 of my 2011 fantasy football wide receiver rankings.
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Should Be, But Won’t:  Carson Palmer
The Bengals are moving on. They selected Andy Dalton in the 2011 NFL Draft and it sounds like he’s going to get every opportunity to open the season as the Bengals’ starting quarterback. If Carson Palmer were traded he would find himself among the 2011 top 25 fantasy football quarterbacks. Mike Brown is stubborn though so a Palmer deal seems unlikely.
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This week’s topic:
The one player whose fantasy value is most stronglycorrelated to the system he plays in (affecting him either positively or negatively).

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My response:
My initial thought was Deion Branch. After all he was a quality receiver for the Patriots, struggled in Seattle, and was a quality receiver when he returned to New England.  While he certainly fits the bill, injuries also played a role in his Seattle regression.
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After further consideration I came to Brandon Marshall.
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Marshall is a physical specimen at 6’4″, 230 pounds. He flourished in Denver posting three consecutive 100 catch seasons. It didn’t matter if it was Jay Cutler or Kyle Orton under center. Marshall was a force in Denver. His antics led to his departure, and one could argue that he couldn’t have found many worse landing spots.
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Marshall still caught over six passes per game for the Dolphins, but only managed to score three touchdowns. He didn’t catch is second touchdown reception until Week 14. While he reached the 1000 yard mark for the fourth straight year, it’s only because he averaged 101.7 yards per game over the past three weeks. In his first 11 games, Marshall averaged 64.5 ypg.
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All indications are that the Dolphins will be looking for a new quarterback, which will make it Marshall’s fourth in four years. They also have major question marks at running back. The state of the Broncos offense is in complete disarray. Time will tell what their system will like like next year. While the move to Miami may have increased the value of Marshall’s bank account, it took a hard hit on his fantasy value.

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ESPN is reporting that Brandon Marshall was stabbed in the stomach by his wife Michi Nogami-Marshall. He had surgery last night and is expected to be released from the hospital. Marshall is not expected to miss any time, assuming there is time to miss. Unfortunately this is the type of incident that makes Brandon a risk on fantasy football draft day.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

A typical fantasy football league consists of 12 teams nine starters (QB, two RBs, three WRs, TE, K, D) and anywhere from five to seven bench players. If you go with the latter bench allotment, you’re looking at 16 roster spots or 192 draft picks. By that definition, any sleeper should have an average draft position about 180 or lower.

Miami Dolphins WR Davone Bess sports an ADP of 241 according to Mock Draft Central. That would make him the first pick of the 21st round and somewhere around the 80th WR taken. That would make him a WR6 in 12-team leagues.

He had 76 catches for 758 yards and 2 TDs last year and 54 catches for 554 yards and a score as a rookie. I don’t expect him to suddenly break out as a third-year receiver like many have before him, but I think there is room for growth.

For starters, Chad Henne gained valuable experience last year, and will be more comfortable under center. They also added Brandon Marshall, who will command significant defensive attention.

With the focus on Marshall, the running game, and the Wildcat, Bess could go unattended. He has soft hands and a quick first step. The receptions could pile up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him approach 90-100 receptions. The main drawback is he is an afterthought in the red zone. I don’t expect that to change. Still, he should be a solid WR4 or WR5 this year. He gets and added bump in PPR leagues.

Prediction:  90 catches, 900 yards, 3 TDs

What are your thoughts on Davone Bess?

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The Dolphins made big noise this offseason by landing Brandon Marshall. He has a chance to have the biggest impact of any player switching teams for the 2010 season.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Favorable
Sure the take on the Jets in Week 14, but if you can survive that game, it’s smooth sailing. They finish with two home games against the Bills and the Lions.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Brandon Marshall – Some people don’t care for Marshall, but they most likely haven’t been a Marshall owner the past three years. The Broncos switched from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton and he didn’t miss a beat. Chad Henne has a big arm, and could lead Marshall to another monster year.

Four Star Fantasy Options
None

Three Star Fantasy Options
Chad Henne – Henne was solid in his first NFL action this year, and with new weapon Brandon Marshall at his disposal, Henne has a chance of being a low end QB1 or a solid QB2.

Ronnie Brown – I’m a bigger fan in Brown than most. He is a super talented RB. His main problem is staying healthy. When he plays, he’s quite effective. Right now I consider him a low end RB2 or a high end RB3.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Ricky Williams – I’m loving the resurgence of Ricky’s career. He had 1121 yards and 11 TDs last year. He is 33 so don’t get too excited. He’s still the backup RB when Ronnie Brown is healthy. That said he’s a decent source for RB depth.

Davone Bess – He’s going to catch a lot of passes, so he should definitely be on the radar for those in PPR leagues. In standard leagues he’s nothing more than bench depth.

Dolphins Defense/Special Teams – Right off the bat I can tell you I like the fantasy playoffs matchup.They also play the Bills in Week 1, Raiders in Week 12, and Cleveland in Week 13. Fortunately their second meeting with New England is in Week 17.

One Star Fantasy Options
Greg Camarillo – He has great hands, but given the priority of the running game, along with Marshall and Bess, I’m not too concerned about losing out on Camarillo.

Brian Hartline – He’ll need an injury along the way to become fantasy relevant.

Anthony Fasano – He caught just 31 passes for 339 yards and a pair of scores. This after posting a line of 34-454-7. He’s a backup/spot starter at best.

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