Brandon Marshall
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The New York Giants made a splash by signing Brandon Marshall to join forces with Odell Beckham, Jr. to give the G-Men one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.
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The clear winner in this signing is Eli Manning. He now has two top 20 receivers at his disposal. The Giants offense is heavily geared towards the passing attack and this will help. If receivers try to take Odell away, Marshall will make them pay. Play Odell without help over the top, you’ll pay. It’s great news for Eli.
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Brandon Marshall also gets a boost. He gets an upgrade at quarterback and is in a more favorable offense. He finished with just 59 catches for 788 yards and three touchdowns. In 2015 he had 109 catches for 1,502 yards and 14 touchdowns. Look for Marshall to land somewhere in the middle of those two campaigns. He’s a solid WR2 going into 2017.
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You would think that Odell Beckham, Jr. takes a little hit as Marshall will command a lot of targets, but I think there is plenty to go around. Beckham had 101 catches for 1, 367 yards and 10 TDs. He wasn’t as dominant as he was in previous years, but it’s hard to be upset about his production. He should be able to match last year’s production. Marshall will take some of the attention away from Beckham. He should also push him to be at his very best
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Sterling Shepard’s value takes a hit. He caught 65 passes for 683 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie. I think he can match or beat the receptions and yardage totals, but he likely takes a hit in the touchdown department. One would have predicted he take a major leap in his second year, but that isn’t likely to be the case now that Marshall is in town. He’ll likely remain on the WR4-5 radar.


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This week’s topic
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The one player whose fantasy value is most stronglycorrelated to the system he plays in (affecting him either positively or negatively).

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My response:
My initial thought was Deion Branch. After all he was a quality receiver for the Patriots, struggled in Seattle, and was a quality receiver when he returned to New England.  While he certainly fits the bill, injuries also played a role in his Seattle regression.
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After further consideration I came to Brandon Marshall.
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Marshall is a physical specimen at 6’4″, 230 pounds. He flourished in Denver posting three consecutive 100 catch seasons. It didn’t matter if it was Jay Cutler or Kyle Orton under center. Marshall was a force in Denver. His antics led to his departure, and one could argue that he couldn’t have found many worse landing spots.
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Marshall still caught over six passes per game for the Dolphins, but only managed to score three touchdowns. He didn’t catch is second touchdown reception until Week 14. While he reached the 1000 yard mark for the fourth straight year, it’s only because he averaged 101.7 yards per game over the past three weeks. In his first 11 games, Marshall averaged 64.5 ypg.
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All indications are that the Dolphins will be looking for a new quarterback, which will make it Marshall’s fourth in four years. They also have major question marks at running back. The state of the Broncos offense is in complete disarray. Time will tell what their system will like like next year. While the move to Miami may have increased the value of Marshall’s bank account, it took a hard hit on his fantasy value.

 

Brandon Marshall Stabbed

23 April 2011


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ESPN is reporting that Brandon Marshall was stabbed in the stomach by his wife Michi Nogami-Marshall. He had surgery last night and is expected to be released from the hospital. Marshall is not expected to miss any time, assuming there is time to miss. Unfortunately this is the type of incident that makes Brandon a risk on fantasy football draft day.


Image courtesy of Icon SMI

 

A typical fantasy football league consists of 12 teams nine starters (QB, two RBs, three WRs, TE, K, D) and anywhere from five to seven bench players. If you go with the latter bench allotment, you’re looking at 16 roster spots or 192 draft picks. By that definition, any sleeper should have an average draft position about 180 or lower.

 

Miami Dolphins WR Davone Bess sports an ADP of 241 according to Mock Draft Central. That would make him the first pick of the 21st round and somewhere around the 80th WR taken. That would make him a WR6 in 12-team leagues.

 

He had 76 catches for 758 yards and 2 TDs last year and 54 catches for 554 yards and a score as a rookie. I don’t expect him to suddenly break out as a third-year receiver like many have before him, but I think there is room for growth.

 

For starters, Chad Henne gained valuable experience last year, and will be more comfortable under center. They also added Brandon Marshall, who will command significant defensive attention.

 

With the focus on Marshall, the running game, and the Wildcat, Bess could go unattended. He has soft hands and a quick first step. The receptions could pile up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him approach 90-100 receptions. The main drawback is he is an afterthought in the red zone. I don’t expect that to change. Still, he should be a solid WR4 or WR5 this year. He gets and added bump in PPR leagues.

 

Prediction:  90 catches, 900 yards, 3 TDs

 

What are your thoughts on Davone Bess?

 

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The Dolphins made big noise this offseason by landing Brandon Marshall. He has a chance to have the biggest impact of any player switching teams for the 2010 season.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Favorable
Sure the take on the Jets in Week 14, but if you can survive that game, it’s smooth sailing. They finish with two home games against the Bills and the Lions.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Brandon Marshall – Some people don’t care for Marshall, but they most likely haven’t been a Marshall owner the past three years. The Broncos switched from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton and he didn’t miss a beat. Chad Henne has a big arm, and could lead Marshall to another monster year.

Four Star Fantasy Options
None

Three Star Fantasy Options
Chad Henne – Henne was solid in his first NFL action this year, and with new weapon Brandon Marshall at his disposal, Henne has a chance of being a low end QB1 or a solid QB2.

Ronnie Brown – I’m a bigger fan in Brown than most. He is a super talented RB. His main problem is staying healthy. When he plays, he’s quite effective. Right now I consider him a low end RB2 or a high end RB3.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Ricky Williams – I’m loving the resurgence of Ricky’s career. He had 1121 yards and 11 TDs last year. He is 33 so don’t get too excited. He’s still the backup RB when Ronnie Brown is healthy. That said he’s a decent source for RB depth.

Davone Bess – He’s going to catch a lot of passes, so he should definitely be on the radar for those in PPR leagues. In standard leagues he’s nothing more than bench depth.

Dolphins Defense/Special Teams – Right off the bat I can tell you I like the fantasy playoffs matchup.They also play the Bills in Week 1, Raiders in Week 12, and Cleveland in Week 13. Fortunately their second meeting with New England is in Week 17.

One Star Fantasy Options
Greg Camarillo – He has great hands, but given the priority of the running game, along with Marshall and Bess, I’m not too concerned about losing out on Camarillo.

Brian Hartline – He’ll need an injury along the way to become fantasy relevant.

Anthony Fasano – He caught just 31 passes for 339 yards and a pair of scores. This after posting a line of 34-454-7. He’s a backup/spot starter at best.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

ESPN is reporting that Brandon Marshall will be out until the start of training camp following hip surgery. The Dolphins are convinced that his surgery will not affect the upcoming NFL season. He had surgery last year and showed no ill-effects as he caught 101 passes for 1120 yards and 10 TDs. Until he misses time in camp, I would have no worries as a Marshall fantasy owner. There is also no need to adjust your receiver rankings based on this news.

Not long after signing his tender Brandon Marshall had a new home. ESPN‘s Adam Schefter broke the news that the petulant wide receiver was traded to the Miami Dolphins for what is believed to be a pair of second round picks (2010, 2011).

Miami gets a major upgrade at WR, but he does come with baggage. While money shouldn’t be an issue after he signs a monster extension, going to South Beach could present its share of problems off-the-field. There are plenty of distractions.

On the field, it’s not a bad place for Marshall to land. While they are a run-heavy team, they do possess a young QB with a strong arm in Chad Henne. The uncertainty of his new home moves him down a couple of notches in my fantasy rankings (click to see), but he remains a top ten WR in my book.  Henne also moves up a few notches.

In Denver, Kyle Orton takes a big hit. Marshall’s departure leaves the Broncos without a legitimate threat in the passing game. Perhaps the move will allow Eddie Royal to rebound from a disastrous 2009 season that featured a 54 catch, 635 yard, and 5 TD drop-off from a solid rookie season.

***Update***
The Dolphins and Brandon Marshall agreed on a four-year extension.

Click here for the FantasyKnuckleheads.com’s take.

RP4
Written by
Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Eddie Royal return
Image courtesy of Icon SMI

In 2008, rookie Eddie Royal looked like a budding superstar.  He was the #2 wide receiver on his team, yet he was on the receiving end of 91 catches for 980 yards and 5 TD.  He was lucky enough to have a Pro Bowl quarterback at his disposal.  His reception total was the second most ever by a rookie (to Anquan Boldin’s 101).  Unfortunately, as we close in on the start of the 2009 season, everything has changed.

First of all, he’s now the main man on the outside for the Broncos, thanks to the antics of Brandon Marshall.  Will Marshall ultimately take the field this season as a member of the Broncos?  Unless something major changes, he certainly will, but in the his role could be limited thanks to his suspension during training camp and the wedge he’s driven between himself and the franchise.

Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler also had a falling out with the organization, leading to his trade to the Chicago Bears.  That leaves Kyle Orton to lead the offense, a certain downgrade.

Last season Orton completed just 34 passes of 20 yards or more, compared to Cutler’s 55.  He had 3 completions of 40 yards or more, compared to Cutler’s 7.  We’ll find out soon enough if it is the system, conditions or supporting cast, but you would be hard pressed to find someone who would consider Orton even close to the QB Cutler is.  Cutler has emerged as one of the elite, while Orton is anything but.

Now that we’ve covered the obvious, where exactly does that leave Royal?  Last season the Broncos put the ball in the air 620 times, third most in the NFL.  That allowed Marshall & Royal to combine for 195 receptions, but it is highly unlikely that the trend continues. 

With Knowshown Moreno brought in to improve a rushing offense that saw its leader have 343 yards, there should be a renewed focus on a ground attack.  Coupled with the regression in QB play, the strategy shouldn’t be a surprise.

Thanks to Marshall’s indiscretions, there’s one less receiver to target.  That’s good, because his receptions are going to go to someone.  It’s bad, because it is one less star for defenses to focus.  In turn Royal could see some double coverage this season, especially early in the season if Marshall does not take the field

While he was a second round draft choice, you also have to consider that his college career numbers at Virginia Tech were nowhere close to his professional success.  For his four-year career, he had just 119 receptions and 12 TDs.  Obviously, there’s no correlation, but you have to wonder if he will be able to repeat last season’s success, especially if Marshall is not a main focus of the offense and with Cutler no longer on the roster.

Let’s take a look at what I’d expect from him this season:

Receiving – 87 catches, 1,010 yards, 6 TD

Everything appears to be stacked against him from taking a huge next step forward this season.  That doesn’t mean that I would expect him to completely disappear into football obscurity, however.  He showed too much last season and should be able to post at least similar statistics, making him a low-end WR #2, but more of a great WR #3 in my book.  He was initially ranked as the #25 WR on our Top 25 list (click here to view), further cementing my view on him. 

What do you think of Royal for next season?  Do you think he’ll take a step forward?  Regress?  Post similar numbers?

By Marc Mancuso

Everyone wants to avoid overspeding these days. Things that may look nice and shiny and sound good are not always the path to happiness. These guys had amazing 2008 seasons, but they are bubbles waiting to burst. In keeping with the economic theme, past results are not predictors of future performance….

All Overvalued Team:
QB: Kurt Warner, ARI — I am seeing Warner go in rounds 3 & 4 of drafts. Really? The guy is 38 years old with a very suspect injury past, having played only two full seasons this decade (2001 and 2008)

RB: Michael Turner, ATL — The consensus #2 overall but I’m not buying it. Matt Ryan has new toys and its expected that the Falcons will open up the playbook in his sophomore season. That plus the dreaded rule of 370 to me sounds better at #6 than at #2.

RB: DeAngelo Williams, CAR — Timeshare with Jonathan Stewart again this year. Barring injury, DeAngelo will not reach his lofty 2008 numbers. Let someone else take the chance on a 1st round pick. T he Panthers didn’t see enough in DeWill or they would not have drafted Stewart as their top draft pick in 2008.

WR: Antonio Bryant, TB Those expecting a repeat of last season’s success will be disappointed. A very suspect QB situation, and three viable RB’s, point to fewer targets and particularly downfield targets. Awesome as a #3 but think twice about drafting him as your #2. Bryant has already gotten nicked in camp with a torn meniscus and will miss 3-4 weeks.

WR: Santonio Holmes, PIT A good Super Bowl does not a good fantasy player make (ala Deon Branch). I like his talent and speed, but he’s far too inconsistent to be a #2 WR. I am seeing him go in round 3 of drafts. Pittsburgh reverted back to a running team last year after putting up big numbers through the air in 2007. This despite injuries to Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, and Hines Ward never seems to age, are all factors will further diminish Holmes’ overall value.

WR: Brandon Marshall, DEN Elite talent, but too many question marks to consider him in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Kyle Orton does not have the gun that Jay Cutler had, and Marshall’s hip and hamstring issues, combined with a potential suspension, puts him in very high risk territory.

TE: John Carlson, SEA — Seneca Wallace is back on the bench, TJ Housh is on the team, and Nate Burleson is back and healthy and getting rave reviews thus far at camp. All signs point to Carlson going back to a middle of the road TE, who should not be considered a #1 option.

Brandon Marshall catch
Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Brandon Marshall, like Dwayne Bowe, is being sent a message as new Coach Josh McDaniels has Marshall listed on the second team on the Broncos’ depth chart.  Marshall has asked to be traded, had another run-in with the law, and has been unable to practice because of injury.  Not exactly the way to endear yourself to you new Coach. 

Marshall had two monster games in his return from suspension last year (18 receptions for 166 yards against San Diego & 6 receptions for 155 yards vs. New Orleans).  He only topped 100 yards one more time the rest of the way.  Yet, he finished with 104 receptions for 1265 yards and 6 TDs.  That of course was with QB Jay Cutler, who forced his way out of Denver.  New QB Kyle Orton doesn’t have the arm strength of Cutler, but he has proven to be a winner.  It will be interesting to monitor both QBs to see how they do in their new homes.  The questions surrounding Marshall make it difficult to rely on him as your #1 WR.  That’s the risk you’ll likely have to take on him as he’s going in third round of fantasy drafts.  I expect him to have another stellar year, assuming he does not get suspended.  He should catch 95 passes for 1200 yards and 7 TDs.  All things considered though, I would lean towards a WR that wasn’t quite as risky.


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