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C.J. Spiller was one of the most overdrafted running backs in the league last year. Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best seemed to draw more ire, but Spiller was taken higher in the draft and Mathews finished with 383 more total yards and six more touchdowns while Best finished with 602 more yards and five more scores.
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Spiller finished with just 283 rushing yards at 3.8 yards per carry, which isn’t nearly on par with his explosive speed. He played in 14 games as a rookie, yet finished with at least 50 total yards on just one occasion. For all the talk of his explosiveness, he had just one run and one reception over 20+ yards. To say his game didn’t translate at this level is an understatement of epic proportions.
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Two of his main issues were fumbles and pass protection. In just 74 attempts Spiller put the ball on the turf five times. Three of his fumbles were recovered by the defense. Failing to pick up the blitz and coughing up the ball are two of the quickest ways to a coach’s doghouse.
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Unfortunately for Spiller not having the OTAs costs him valuable time working on improving in those areas. You can work on ball control on your own, but it’s hard to simulate pass protection.
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Spiller has be compared to Jamaal Charles, but Charles was effective even when he wasn’t getting a lot of touches. In his rookie year he carried the ball just 67 times, which was actually seven fewer than Spiller. Yet he had 74 more yards thanks to a 5.3 yards per carry average. Charles had three more receptions, but 115 more yards. In basically the same amount of touches Charles outgained Spiller by 189 yards.
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Darren McFadden struggled early, but the signs were there. Even Reggie Bush, whose production has not nearly matched the hype, had been productive up until last year.
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Spiller should be significantly better in 2011. Not simply because the ball was set so low, but because he does have the talent. He’s worth a look as your RB4, particularly in PPR leagues. Don’t write him off just yet. You may be pleasantly surprised.
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Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings

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Stevie Johnson helped reinforce the third-year receiver theory big time last year. He had 12 catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns in his first two seasons. After a modest six catches for 71 yards in the first two games last year he exploded.
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From Week 3 until Week 11 Johnson averaged 82.1 yards with nine touchdowns in those eight games. Those aren’t WR3 numbers. Those are Andre and Calvin Johnson numbers.
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Alas, all good things must come to an end. After his three touchdown performance in Week 11, Stevie only reached paydirt one more time. Hard to be considered elite without scoring touchdowns. He also failed to reach 75 receiving yards in any of those games. Johnson wasn’t making up for it with yardage as he averaged just 57.5 yards over that span. He was still keeping PPR league owners happy, but snagging five receptions per game.
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Now that he has established himself as the team’s top offensive threat, he’ll start garnering more attention. The Bills are going to be proactive by moving him around, but without a true weapon to take some pressure away, Johnson could look for like second half Stevie Johnson. Lee Evans slowed big time last year. If he can play like he did prior to the 2009 season, Johnson will be a beneficiary.
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If the Bills want to get Lee Evans and C.J. Spiller more involved in the offense, those looks will have to come from somewhere. Johnson, who had 143 targets last year could see a few less passes his way.
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Before you get the impression that I am bashing Stevie, I do like him. I love that he kept working knowing he’d eventually get a shot. I just think he’s a victim of setting the bar too high. Going for 1073 yards and ten touchdowns makes it hard for him to match his production.
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Plus, you’re going to have to get him early. Currently he is the 14th ranked running back according to MockDraftCentral. I know Bills fan will argue his merit until they are blue in the face, but he is going, on average, ahead of DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Percy Harvin, and Wes Welker to name a few. I’m not sure I buy that.
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What are your thoughts on Stevie?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings

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The AFC East is a division without a dominant running back.
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Tthe class of the division is Shonn Greene, but isn’t that what we expected last year? LaDainian Tomlinson is still in the picture, but he seems to be a peace with not being the featured back anymore. Greene is a powerful runner that should have a solid season. He’s better suited to be an RB2, but if you went WR or QB with your first pick or two, he is capable of putting up RB1 numbers. Heck, he’s capable of putting up top ten numbers. LT should still be owned, but don’t reach because of his name. He’s best suited for PPR leagues. Joe McKnight also could work his way into the mix, but the lockout will probably lead to more of a veteran presence early. Rookie Bilal Powell is best suited for dynasty leagues.
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In New England you have a fantasy mess. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was voted Running Back Most Likely to Regress by his classmates. With Danny Woodhead and rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley the Pats’ running back pool is to murky to rely on. At some point it could sort itself out, but Bill Belichick is not concerned with fantasy numbers. Winning is the name of the game, and he’ll mix and match his RBs as he sees fit.
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Buffalo is a full-blown RBBC. Fred Jackson remains the starter and without OTAs will keep a foot up on second-year back C.J. Spiller. We’ve seen more committees lately that have allowed for two effective fantasy players to coexist so don’t be scared off. Jackson makes a solid RB3 and Spiller a solid RB4. If one of the backs goes down, the other’s value will jump dramatically. Once again Jackson will likely be undervalued on draft day.
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Then we have Miami. We still don’t know what will happen with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Assuming only one returns, that back will have the advantage on rookie Daniel Thomas thanks to the lockout. Both veterans have excelled in a RBBC so they will be willing to share the carries. Thomas will have to get up to speed quickly picking up blitzes to stay on the field. He very well could end up the top rookie runner this  year and has a bright future in keeper leagues.
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Now that you’ve strolled through the muddy AFC East running back terrain, be sure to wipe your feet.
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Also check out:

• AFC East Quarterback Situations
• AFC North Quarterback Situations
• AFC South Quarterback Situations
• AFC West Quarterback Situations
• NFC East Quarterback Situations
• NFC North Quarterback Situations
• NFC South Quarterback Situations
• NFC West Quarterback Situations

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The AFC East is truly a case of the “haves” and the “have nots”.
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The quarterback position is the most glamorous one in the league, and the Patriots have the most glamorous one at that position. Not only does Tom Brady have the model wife and movie star looks, but he puts up video game numbers. Most quarterbacks would struggle after losing a talent like Randy Moss, but Brady got better. He finished with 3900 yards and 36 touchdowns while throwing just four interceptions. Jay Cutler did that in one game last year. Look for Brady to be the class of the division and among the best in the league again.
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Mark Sanchez doesn’t put up the monster numbers like Brady as he three for just 3291 yards and 17 TDs (13 INTs) last year, but he’s also a winner having been to two consecutive AFC Championships. With their rushing attack Sanchez doesn’t have to carry the team, but he is more than a caretaker. Look for Sanchez to improve once again for the Jets, assuming he gets Santonio Holmes and/or Braylon Edwards back.
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While Ryan Fiztpatrick is a far cry from Tom Brady, he actually was fairly effective for the Buffalo Bills. He threw for 3000 yards and 23 TDs (15 INT) despite playing just 13 games. There were thoughts that the Bills would grab Blaine Gabbert in the 2011 NFL Draft, but Buffalo opted to stick with the Harvard quarterback. He developed a nice rapport with Stevie Johnson, which should continue going forward. Questions remain as to whether or not the Bills will pick up Lee Evans option. If he leaves, it will be a blow to Fitzpatrick. If he stays, Fitzpatrick makes a solid QB2.
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Then there’s Miami. Chad Henne isn’t the answer. There is some talk that the fins will deal for Kyle Orton. He was be a quality QB2 if  he’s reunited with Brandon Marshall. We’ll have to see who ends up getting the nod before we can rate their quarterback situation.

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Having fun with the SMW Clothing t-shirt contests? Good, because the fine people over there are hooking you up with another chance to add to your wardrobe.
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For this week’s contest, you have to guess, without going over, how many total yards Cleveland running back Peyton Hills will get against Buffalo on Sunday. For the record, he’s averaging 116.5 total yards per game with a high of 220 yards and a low of 61.
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The Bills are one of the worst defenses in the league allowing more rushing yards (170.9 per game) than any other ream in the league.
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So leave a comment with your best guess and be sure to check out SMW Clothing.