LestersLegends.com Carolina Panthers


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Earlier this year I asked if Cam Newton owners should hit the panic button. I preached patience. He has rewarded his owners with three incredible performances in a row. Can he continue to put up big numbers?
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Newton had been decent most of the year, but was not living up to the expectations he came into the season with. Things started to turn in Week 12 when he threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns, while picking up 52 yards and two more scores on the ground against the Philadelphia Eagles. That was the type of game that fantasy owners were banking on.
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In Week 13 he didn’t run a touchdown in, but he had 78 yards rushing. He only threw for 232 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs, but his three touchdown passes made up for it.
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Week 14 is the start of the fantasy football playoffs in most leagues. Cam got his owners off to a great start with an early 72-yard touchdown run. He finished the day with 287 yards passing and two touchdowns. On the ground he had 116 rushing yards and a touchdown. A performance like that will almost assure that his owners will live to fight another day.
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Next week he faces the San Diego Chargers. They are by no means a defensive stalwart.  With Steve Smith and Greg Olsen giving Cam a terrific 1-2 punch, I like Cam’s prospects.
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In Week 16, which is most league’s championship, Cam has a juicy matchup against the Oakland Raiders. Even if your league plays the season out, you’ll be happy to know that the Panthers finish up against the New Orleans Saints.
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It was a bit of a bumpy road for Cam Newton. I don’t know if the lack of team success got to him. Cam has turned it on though, and the Panthers have responded by winning two of their past three games. Perhaps he can quietly provide the fantasy championship that you expected from him.
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Jonathan Steward running
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Despite a mere 142 rushing yards and 51 receiving yards the outlook for Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart is promising.
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Probably not this week as Carolina has the misfortune of facing the Bears, but brighter days lie ahead.
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Stewart dealt with a toe injury earlier in the season and has yet to touch the ball more than 13 times this season. Not to mention the struggles the Panthers have had on offense.
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Cam Newton has clearly regressed and team is sitting at 24th in the league in total offense (335.7 yards per game) and 28th in scoring offense (17.7 points per game).
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They rank 13th in the league in rushing yards per game at 113.7 ypg, but that number is misleading thanks to Cam Newton’s 45.5 ypg and 9.2 ypg they are getting on receiver runs . Plus, keep in mind that last year they were third in the league with 150.5 ypg.
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The Panthers have made a shift with J-Stew assuming lead back duties. They could also be making a change schematically.
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Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer suggests that the Panthers will “shift from the zone read package to more reliance on a power running game”. If they can get Johnson 12-15 carries things should start turning around for the Panthers and J-Stew’s fantasy owners.
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The biggest hurdle to clear will be the Panthers’ offensive line. If they can patch it together enough there could be some decent days ahead. His fantasy playoffs match-ups against Atlanta, San Diego, and Oakland looks promising.
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If you’re looking for some help at running back, give his owner a shout. Maybe you can get him on the cheap.
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After three games Cam Newton has more turnovers (five interceptions, one fumble) than touchdowns (two rushing, two passing).
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He is averaging 266.0 passing yards and 27.0 rushing yards. His passing total is up from the 253.2 he averaged last year, but he is well off the mark of the 44.1 rushing yards he averaged.
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Many of you were counting on Cam as your first or second round pick to deliver the goods. So far he has had one good game and two poor showings.
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In leagues that score passing yards at 0.05 points, rushing yards at 0.1 points, passing TDs at four points, rushing TDs at six points, and all turnovers at negative two points his weekly average has dropped from 25.44 ppg to 17.67.
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The Giants played a heck of a game on Thursday. That will happen. The fact that he failed to deliver the goods against Tampa Bay is more troublesome. Sure, he threw for 303 yards, but he only ran for four and his two INTs negated his touchdown pass.
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Although this week’s game was a disaster, there are some things to take away from it. For starters, by playing the Thursday game the team will have more time to prepare for next week’s meeting with Atlanta.
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It will also give Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart more time to heal so hopefully they’ll be at full strength at the skill positions.
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Another good thing that happened in Thursday’s bloodbath was the emergence of Greg Olsen. Newton repeatedly looked to Olsen (14 targets), who caught seven passes for 98 yards. It’s nice having that safety net. When Stewart (47 receptions last year) returns he’ll also help in that regard. Plus, Smith and LaFell give him excellent options on the outside.
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While Newton has not met expectations thus far, it’s not time to make any drastic moves. No way would you get equal value. You just have to show some patience and hope he turns things around. If you’re looking to acquire Newton, it’s a good time to send out the feelers in case his owner has become jittery.
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Carolina Panthers’ tight end Greg Olsen has shown signs of being a high-end tight end, most notably in 2009 when he caught 60 passes for 612 yards and eight scores. The Panthers are expecting  big things from Olsen (see Associated Press article). Should fantasy owners follow suit?
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Olsen has scored at least five touchdown in the past four seasons, and is coming off a decent 45 catch, 540 yard, five TD campaign. As they mention in the article, Jeremey Shockey, who isn’t expected to return, put up solid numbers as well. In fact, the two combined to catch 82 passes for 995 yards and nine touchdowns>
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While Panthers Coach Ron Rivera may be exaggerating a bit when he says that Olsen can put up numbers similar to Rob Gronkoswki and Jimmy Graham, it does stand to reason that Olsen can be more productive without sharing the load with Shockey.
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Will he reach the 700 yard mark for the first time in his career? There is a good chance. The odds are even longer that he’ll reach double-digit touchdowns, but it isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
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He’s a big dude at 6’5″ and 255 pounds, and though he doesn’t quite have the size as Gronk or Graham, he does have similar athletic ability. With offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski’s ability to tight ends , there is some pretty big potential there.
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Personally I still would rather have Olsen as my back-up fantasy tight end, but he does have some pretty good upside. You shouldn’t have to invest too heavily to acquire his services and he could easily outplay his draft position.
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Michael Turner running
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The NFC South is pretty loaded in the running back department.
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Atlanta’s Michael Turner leads the way. He ran for 1371 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. He gets a downgrade in PPR leagues as he only caught 12 passes for 85 yards last year, but he’s a solid RB1. Turner has averaged 91.7 rushing yards and 0.91 rushing touchdowns per game over the past three years. Jason Snelling is one of the game’s best handcuffs because the Falcons hardly missed a beat when he filled in for Turner in the past. If he is a restricted free agent, he could be back with the club. If he is unrestricted it could be hard for them to bring him back. The Falcons drafted Jacquizz Rodgers, but he’ll strictly be the third down back.
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Tampa Bay got a pleasant surprise from LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 1007 yards with six touchdowns. He did his damage in just 201 carries (5.0 ypc).  Cadillac Williams is a free agent, but has expressed his desire to return to the Bucs. Blount is expected to get the bulk of the carries while Cadillac would play in passing situations. Rookie Allen Bradford isn’t expected to steal too many carries.
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Jonathan Stewart (and his keeper league owners) are perhaps second only to DeAngelo Williams and his agent in interest in where D-Will lands next year. If J-Stew has the backfield to himself, he could easily produce top five numbers, though Cam Newton could steal some of his touchdown runs. If Williams returns, Stewart can still be a viable fantasy option. They can definitely coexist for the Panthers and fantasy owners alike. D-Will could also be an elite fantasy option this year if he lands in the right place. If he signs with the Broncos, he could replace Knowshon Moreno as the team’s lead back. D-Will is an important piece in determining next year’s fantasy running back landscape.
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Pierre Thomas looked to be in a great spot when the Saints signed him to a four-year extension. Then they went and drafted Mark Ingram. That move likely sealed the fate of Reggie Bush, who will be sent packing if he doesn’t take a large pay cut. Thomas will likely move to change of pace and third-down duty while Ingram would carry the bulk of the snaps. This is a messy situation that will cause fantasy owners some heartache. Ingram should be a solid RB2 while PT23 should be a solid RB3.
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The NFC South features three of the top quarterbacks in the league and a rookie that wants to become an icon.
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Drew Brees sets the bar for the NFC South, and you need a ladder to reach it. Brees topped 4000 yards for the fifth straight year, 4620 to be exact. His 33 touchdown passes marked his third straight year with at least 33. Brees is remarkably accurate, productive, and consistent. He’s a bona fide star and top tier QB1. It doesn’t seem to matter who is catching the ball for him.
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Matt Ryan made a nice jump into borderline QB1 territory last year. He threw for 3705  yards and 28 touchdowns. Roddy White is one of the most explosive receivers in the league. The Falcons traded the moon for rookie WR Julio Jones to compliment Roddy. I’m not sure Ryan can be much more productive than last year, given their commitment to Michael Turner and the running game, but he should be as good or slightly better. Ryan is a low-end QB1, high-end QB2.
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Josh Freeman quietly turned in a solid season, throwing for 3451 yards and 25 touchdowns. Perhaps as impressive was his INT total (6). He added another 364 yards on the ground. Given his size, I expect Freeman to record his first rushing touchdown next year. His numbers are a little bloated thanks to a five touchdown performance against a dismal Seahawks pass defense in Week 16, but he remains a terrific QB2. Freeman really developed a nice rapport with Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn is ahead of schedule on his ACL recovery and should be more effective in 2011.
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Then you have Cam Newton. He is an amazing athlete, capable of being very productive with his arm and his feet. The lockout could prevent Newton from becoming comfortable with the offense, but he will still have the instincts to make plays with his feet. He’s worth a look late in the draft as a QB2, but he could run hot and cold in 2011, especially if Steve Smith gets his wish and is dealt to a contender.
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The Panthers were 2-14 last year. Their 196 points scored last year was the lowest in the league by a mile. They scored 75 fewer points than an inept Cleveland Browns offense. That’s nearly five fewer points per game than the league’s second worst scoring offense. Their 143.1 passing yards per game was nearly 40 fewer than an Arizona team that is desperate for a quarterback change. Clearly the Panthers need better play out of their quarterback. The question is will it be Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, or Jimmy Clausen?
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So how bad was Jimmy last year? He completed 52.5 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and nine interceptions. He had a 58.4 passer rating. In his defense he had just one legitimate target (Steve Smith) in the passing game, and he actually had fewer fantasy points in non-PPR leagues than David Gettis. Smith will turn 32 in May and is on the downside of his career. An intriguing option would be to select Georgia WR A.J. Green with the number one pick. He is the top receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson and the Panthers could take a quarterback in the third round to compete with Clausen.
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The Panthers struggled on the defensive side of the football as well. They ranked 26th with 25.5 points allowed per game. Carolina allowed the tenth most rushing yards per game (123.8). Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus won’t help you score points on offense, but he would certainly beef up their defense. If he commanded double teams, it would open things up for everybody else. The Panthers could also consider Patrick Peterson, but cornerbacks traditionally have not gone that high in the draft.
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Without a second round pick it seems unlikely that the Panthers go in any direction other than quarterback. It will most likely come down to a decision between Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton. Sorry Jimmy. Gabbert is a safer choice while Newton has more  upside. Not only does Newton have incredible athleticism, but he has the ability to put butts in the seats and increase merchandise sales. If the lockout continues, that revenue stream would be desirable.
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If I were pulling the trigger on the Panthers’ first pick I would go with A.J. Green. I’d bring  back Matt Moore once the lockout is over and have an open competition at quarterback. If you struggle again this year, perhaps you land Andrew Luck next year.
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What would you do if you were calling the shots for the Panthers?


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