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There is some speculation that Chad Ochocinco could land with the Patriots when the lockout comes to a close. The Patriots have had success taking talented players with less than perfect pasts. Does he make sense for New England though?
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At 33 he is no longer the threat that he once was. Ocho has just one 1000 yard season in the past three year, and at 1047 yards it was well off the 1374 he averaged from 2003-2007. 43 (8.6 TDs per season) of his 66 career touchdowns came from that stretch giving him an average of. The past three years he averaged 806  yards and 5.7 touchdowns. He averaged 92.4 receptions from 03-07 and just 64 over the past three years.
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Everything depends on Ochocinco’s mental state. If he commits himself to the game, like he did in 2009, Ocho can put up solid numbers once again. He would have to limit some of the sideshow activities and focus on football.
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The thing the Patriots have going for them is they are not afraid to step on toes. Randy Moss was abruptly shown the door when he started to create tension in New England’s locker room. When players’ worth on the field no longer justifies their paychecks, the Patriots aren’t afraid to move on. With a strong-minded coach and quarterback, the Patriots simply wouldn’t put up with Ocho’s ways.
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Most of the drama is usually occurs when his team isn’t winning. When things were going good in Cincinnati, Ocho’s antics were cute and funny. When they were losing it was looked at as a distraction. If the Patriots were to continue their success, which is a strong possibility, then it should be less of an issue for Ochocinco to walk the line.
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While he would’t replace Randy Moss as a deep threat, Ocho would help. Deion Branch did an admirable job for the Patriots following his trade from Seattle, but he would likely have a hard time holding off Ocho for snaps.
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Ocho’s days of being a WR1 are long over. Mostly he would be a WR3 that could potentially produce like a WR2. We’ll just have to stay tuned to see where he lands.
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Also check out:

Laveranues Coles Bengals
Image from ESPN Photos

As long as Carson Palmer is healthy, he’s likely the best QB Coles has ever played with (at the time, relax Favre fans).  Though he throws a good deep ball, he also made a living hitting Housh on shorter routes.  Now that Housh is gone, Coles can fill that role. Plus, if Chad Ochocinco is truly back to form, Coles should find plenty of opening to do his thing.  He’s a good route runner with terrific hands and toughness.  I don’t know if he can match the TD total (7) from last year simply because Chris Henry is Palmer’s weapon of choice in close, but Coles should be a good value, especially in PPR leagues.

Coles will likely be selected in the 7th or 8th round of your fantasy draft, and should be good for 85 receptions for 1000 yards and 5 TDs.  I wouldn’t be enamored with his as my WR2, but he’s a solid WR3.

Chad Ochocinco TD
Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Which Ochocinco will show up?  The one that averaged 1339 yards and 8 TDs from 2002-2007 or the one that phoned in the 2008 season?  He has said all the right things this offseason and has been relatively quiet considering who we’re dealing with.  He plans to tweet during games, but as long as it only costs him money and not playing time, I’m not too concerned.  He is going to draw attention to himself.  That’s what he does.  As long as he’s productive, I can care less.  Personally I don’t see what the big deal if players tweet during games.  I don’t know why the NFL would be opposed to something that would improve the communication with the fans.

Back to Ocho.  He admitted he didn’t work out last year, which rightfully upset Bengals fans and his fantasy owners.  He’s in much better shape and has been on the same page as Carson Palmer.  He is a slight risk as a WR2 simply because of his mindset, but he easily can put up WR1 numbers.  He is going in the 4th or 5th rounds in fantasy drafts, but he could easily put up 2nd round numbers.  I think the risk is worth it personally.  I think he’s good for 80 catches for 1100 yards and 7 TDs in 2009.


Written by
Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Chad Ochocinco is a character, if nothing else, which brings him into the limelight.  That exposure helps to bring him to the forefront of fantasy owners’ minds, but does he still have the talent to justify selecting him?

Remember, this is the same player who posted six consecutive seasons of 1,100 yards or more from 2002-2007, and five straight of 7 TD or more.  Of course, he had also played in 16 games in each of those seasons, something he was not able to accomplish in 2008.

Injuries helped to limit to him to just 13 games (10 starts), missing the final two games of the season and not starting the two he did play in during December.  It’s easy to point to that for his significant falloff, but he did not manage a single 100-yard receiving game during the season.

His longest catch of the year was just 26-yards, with only three of his receptions going for 20+ yards and none for over forty.  This is the same player who had at least 16 catches of over 20 yards from 2003 through 2007, so it is apparent that he has lost a step or two. 

Of course, the absence of Carson Palmer likely contributed to his 53 reception, 540 yard season, but I would ask you to then explain for T.J. Houshmandzadeh (92 receptions for 904 yards), who didn’t seem to miss a beat?  Obviously, a healthy Palmer in 2009 will likely mean at least a marginal improvement for Ochocinco, who has a rapport with his QB.

Is that rapport enough to think he’s going to fully rebound into the player he once was?  Doubtful, to say the least. 

With Houshmandzadeh now in Seattle, the Bengals brought in veteran Laverneous Coles to play opposite Ochocinco, forming a solid, though unspectacular veteran duo.  With neither likely to have “breakout” potential, the defenses aren’t going to be forced to focus on one or the other.  Basically, he’s not going to get the benefit of the defense focusing on the WR opposite him (like Lee Evans should in Buffalo, thanks to the signing of Terrell Owens).

With that said, let’s take a look at how I would project him for 2009:

Receiving: 72 catches, 950 yards, 7 TD

All of this is not to say that Ochocinco could be a solid play in all formats, but he’s clearly not a #1 WR anymore and maybe not even a #2.  The statistics I’m expecting from him would place him as a solid #3 in all formats however, so consider drafting him to fill out your WR slots.  He has the potential to have a huge rebound season, but given his performance last season and the uncertainty that Carson Palmer will be able to be the same QB he once was, there is a huge shadow of doubt hanging over him.

What do you think of Ochocinco?  Will he rebound from 2008?  How far?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Yesterday I gave you the Sell High Candidates.  Today I flip it up and give you the Buy Low ones.  These are guys who have started off slow.  Now is the time to pluck them from your competition before their value increases.

Peyton Manning - How often is it that Peyton Manning has more INTs than TDs after three games?  How about only 3 TDs in three games?  There are about a dozen QBs who have had better starts than Peyton.  If you can somehow package a RB or a WR with little brother Eli and snag Peyton, why wouldn’t you?  How about Aaron Rodgers?  You have to be more confident in Peyton’s ability to score big throughout the year.  This could be a great year to own him since they aren’t running away with the division.  They likely won’t be closing shop in Week 16 this year.  He has the bye week to continue to get healthy and work out his kinks.  You need to strike now before he gets hot.

Joseph Addai - You probably should have tried to get him a week ago, but he’s has less than 200 total yards and 3 TDs right now.  If you can acquire him for Sell High candidate Michael Turner, I say do it now.    Once Saturday gets healthier Addai will be ripping it up again.

Laurence Maroney - He’s done absolutely nothing.  He is averaging 22.3 yards per game.  Why would yo even consider him?  He finishes stong.  Nine of his twelve career TDs have come in the second half, with six of them coming in December.  If you can get him for bargain bin value, why wouldn’t you?  Even if he doesn’t rebound, he likely won’t cost you much.  If you have guys on bye early at RB you can afford to stash him on your bench.

Braylon Edwards - He has 73 yards in three games.  That’s pathetic.  That’s slightly better than what Maroney produced.  His QB situation is a mess, but eventually they are going to have to get him involved if they want to turn this thing around. 

Chad Ocho Cinco - He’s also off to a slow start.  I’ve told you already not to trust Ocho.  However, if you can acquire him as your third WR, don’t you think he’s worth the risk?  He still has a great QB throwing to him with a great WR opposite of him.

Don’t Trust Ocho Cinco

21 September 2008

I heard Charch talking about how he was down on Ocho Cinco the other day so I decided to delve a little deeper into #85.

If you look at Chad Ocho Cinco’s numbers over the past couple of seasons you have no reason to be concerned about his slow start.  If I round up his 1274 yard 2004 season he has five straight 1300+ yard seasons with at least 7 TDs each year.  However, if you look a little deeper into his numbers you start looking for the panic button. 

In his last 16 games has just five TDs.  That’s not exactly what you would expect from an elite reason in a full season’s worth of games.  If you go back a little further you’ll see that he has just 8 TDs in his last 24 games.  What’s worse is the fact that those 8 TDs came in four games.  So Ocho has scored a TD in every six games the last year and a half.  Even more alarms go off when you look at his December production.  How does 2 100 yard games and 2 TDs in nine December games the past two years?  Yikes.  How about when fantasty footballers need him the most?  In Weeks 14-16 over the past two years he’s averaged 58.7 yards without a TD.  That’s not cutting it.

Now, does that mean I’d swear Ocho off for good?  Absolutely not.  I wouldn’t cut him obviously, and I wouldnt’ be big on trading him unless I was getting a good deal.  On the flip side though, if his owner is getting antsy with Ocho, you may be able to sneak in and buy low on him.

 

The Benglas are such a mess.  Chad Ocho Cinco wants to get paid and then he gets hurt.  Carson Palmer gets his nose broken for him.  Rudi Johnson can’t play and expects to be traded.  Housh has been slowed by a hamstring injury.  Marvin Lewis, a great defensive mind, can’t field a strong defensive unit.  He tried to rid the team of Chris Henry and his distractions, but was forced to welcome him back.  What a mess.

Offensively, if they can put together a healthy unit, they should be fine.  Carson Palmer is still a Top Ten QB in this league.  He’s big and strong and can make all of the throws.  They have a trio of capable backs in Chris Perry, Rudi Johnson, and Kenny Watson.  If Chad Johnson can deal with his partially torn labrum, he’s still one of the top receivers in the game.  T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a big-play threat and a TD machine. Chris Henry is a very talented receiver, but is far too often finding himself on the wrong side of the law.

Defensively, they are a mess.  They will miss Justin Smith and Madieu Williams, who have moved on to the 49ers and Vikings respectively.  Sure, Rookie LB Keith Rivers should help matters, but he can only do so much.  Landon Johnson and Dhani Jones will help at Linebacker.  Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph give them a pair of young, talented Cornerbacks.  Deltha O’Neal and Dexter Jackson provide some experience and leadership.  They just aren’t equipped to put pressure on the Quarterback, which makes life hard for everybody. 

So where do I see the Bengals finishing?  In a battle with Baltimore to avoid the basement of the AFC North.  Six maybe seven Wins.   Marvin Lewis will be shown the door after the season.  The roster blown up.  Yeah, it’s not going to be pretty.

Fantasy-wise the Bengals still have the goods.  Carson Palmer is a top-end starting QB.  Chad Ocho Cinco and Housh are top-end WRs.  Chris Henry will likely be a solid #3 or #4 WR when all is said and done (assuming he doesn’t get arrested).  Rudi Johnson, Chris Perry, and Kenny Watson are all capable of getting it done.  It’s just a matter of who will get the touches.  Ben Utecht is a sleeper candidate at Tight End.  Shayne Graham should be a solid Kicker.  I wouldn’t touch that Defense.

It’s time to take a look around the league and see what’s happening on the injury front.

Tom Brady – Yikes.  At least it’s not the same one that cost New England their Perfect Season.  It did cost him to miss a Preseason game.  Naturally, you’re not going to get much info for the Pats, but I think he’ll be fine.

Ronnie Brown - Now’s he’s dealing with a sprained thumb.  Hopefully this isn’t a sign of things to come for Ronnie.

Plaxico Burress - Don’t be alarmed when you see Plax missed tonight’s game.  He proved himself last year.

Glenn Dorsey - Kansas City’s prized rookie made his debut after being shelved with a sprained knee.

Marvin Harrison – Marvelous Marvin caught a pair of passes vs. Atlanta.  I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue getting on page with Manning when he returns.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - A sore hamstring kept Housh out of a second preseason game.

Tarvaris Jackson – The Vikes QB lands on the Injury Report with a sprained MCL suffered in their game against Baltimore over the weekend.  He’ll miss the all-important third preseason game vs. Pittsburgh (where the starters typically play into the 3rd quarter), but should be able to go in a tune-up game against Dallas.  Ultimately they may decide to hold him out until the Season Opener.  Unless you’re in a DEEP league or a two-QB league, you won’t be using T-Jack Week 1 anyway, but he could start off a little rusty against a tough Packer D.

Chad Johnson – Ocho Cinco hurt his shoulder while attempting to make a catch vs. Detroit.  Ocho will likely take the next week off.  There’s no need to risk further injury in a meaningless game.

Larry Johnson - LJ got some more work in rushing for 61 yards on 14 carries.  That has to be a little relief for LJ owners (myself included). 

Rudi Johnson – This is a who’s who of Bengal players.  Rudi missed a second game as well with hamstring concerns.  My guess is the Bengals are being cautious so their season doesn’t unravel before it starts.

Peyton Manning - Manning is a couple of weeks away from returning to practice.  He’s never missed a start so I wouldn’t be too worried if I were a Manning owner.

Deuce McAllister – Deuce made his return Saturday vs. Houston.  He carried the ball 4 times for 16 yards and caught a pair of passes for another ten.  It was good sign for the Saints.

Hines Ward – He hurt his ankle against the Bills last week.  He’s tough.  He’ll be fine.

See how I’m doing in the KFFL Analysis Draft.


I did my 13th Live Mock Fantasy Football Draft today using Mock Draft Central.  The thing I liked about this site is there is much more flexibility.  You can sign up for a variety of team sizes, rounds, and even styles.  If you are in a PPR league you can do a PPR mock draft.

I had third pick in an eight-team 17 round draft.  The sexy picks (LT & All Day) were gone, but Brian Westbrook has been equally as impressive the past couple of seasons.  With my 2nd pick I opted for his former teammate T.O.  He’s a pain-in-the-butt, but he puts up huge numbers.  In the 3rd Round I turned to Jamal Lewis, who quietly had one of the best fantasy seasons last year.  In the 4th Round I drafted Chad Johnson to corner the market on talented pain-in-the butt WRs.  In the 5th I opted for Torry Holt.  I didn’t want all loudmouth WRs.  In the 6th I went for Derek Anderson.  I’m not convinced he’ll repeat last year’s amazing numbers, but figured he was too good of a value to pass up here.  In the 7th I added Kellen Winslow.  Lot of Browns, but I figured why not?  In the 8th I opted for LenDale White for RB depth.  In the 9th I took Donald Driver for WR depth.  In the 10th I added Rudi Johnson for RB depth.  In the 11th I took Jay Cutler as a backup QB and in case DA’s year was a fluke.  In the 12th I went with Anthony Gonzalez for WR depth.  He should have some nice matchups with all of the weapons the Colts have.  In the 13th I figured it was time to go Defense so I selected Chicago.  In the 14th I went with more WR depth in Patrick Crayton.  T.O. and Witten demand so much attention that Crayton should be able to run wild.  In the 15th I added Defense depth with New England.  In the 16th I added Ryan Torrain.  The way Mike Shanahan operates, he could win that starting job in Denver. I finished up with a Kicker (Nate Kaeding). 

QBs
Derek Anderson
Jay Cutler

RBs

Brian Westbrook
Jamal Lewis
LenDale White
Rudi Johnson
Ryan Torrain

WRs
T.O.
Chad Johnson
Torry Holt
Donald Driver
Anthony Gonzalez
Patrick Crayton

TEs
Kellen Winslow

DEF
Chicago
New England

K
Nate Kaeding

Big Dogs
The beauty about the WR position is there are more Big Dogs than any other position.  For that reason, many fantasy footballers are contemplating grabbing stud WRs in the middle-to-late first round and early second round rather than mindlessly taking the best RB available.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at who those characters are.

Randy Moss – How can you start anywhere else after the historic season Moss produced last year?  The thing that worries me about Moss is he looked vulnerable to physical play during the playoffs.  If you’re expecting another 23 TDs, you’ll be disappointed.

Terrell Owens – So far so good in Big D for MeO, I mean T.O.  As long as he’s happy, he’ll continue to produce in bunches.  I can see T.O. lead all WRs in scoring this year.

Reggie Wayne – Well, he officially surpassed Marvin Harrison as the Top Dog in Indy, and I don’t see that changing any time soon.  You can pretty much pencil him in for 1300 yards and 10 TDs.  How many RBs can you say that with?  That’s why he’s a safer pick than a Clinton Portis or Willis McGahee.

Braylon Edwards – Braylon finally showed why he was a 3rd pick last year scoring 16 TDs.  I don’t see him reaching paydirt quite as often, especially with the addition of Donte Stallworth, but double-digits isn’t out of the question.

Andre Johnson – He averaged close to 95 yards and nearly a TD a game last year.  That translates to 1500 yards and 14 TDs.  Will he reach those lofty numbers?  I doubt it, but he’ll come close if he gets a full season in.

Larry Fitzgerald – I am a huge fan of Fitzy.  He just seems to get it.  Must be his Minnesota ties.  Every other year he gets 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  If he can avoid his even-year slump, he’ll be worth his weight in gold again for fantasy owners.

Steve Smith – Here’s a guy who NEEDS his QB to stay healthy.  He’s had two down years (compared to his 2005 masterpiece), but he still has what it takes to be an elite WR in this league.  If Delhomme goes down, he could easily lose his Big Dog status.

Chad Johnson – Ocho Cinco had 1440 yards and 8 TDs last year.  Unfortunately his TDs came in just 4 games last year.  That’s what bugs me about Ocho.  His end of the year stats look great, but he’s not as solid week-to-week like some of the Big Dogs.  His contract situation is a little scary, but I think he’ll play.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Unlike Ocho, Housh likes to spread the wealth out during his season.  He scored a TD in his first 8 games last year.  He’s not going to wow you with big yardage (only three weeks over 100 and none after Wek 6), but you’ll be happy with his production.

Marques Colston – I was tempted to put him a tier lower, but his improvement on an already outstanding rookie season was too hard to ignore.  If the 3rd Year Rule applies to Colston, the league better look out because he’s already blown up.  He caught nearly 100 balls last year for over 1200 yards and 11 TDs.  Those are solid digits.

Torry Holt – Holt had a down year by his standards last year, failing to produce either 1200 yards or 10 TDs for the first time since his rookie season.  I see Marc Bulger bouncing back this year though, and Holt will rebound with him.  He’s going to be a great value pick this year.

Plaxico Burress – I wasn’t going to put him in the Big Dog Club, but when you consider what he did last year despite knee and ankle injuries.  He scored in his first 6 games last year and racked up 1025 yards and 12 scores for the year.  It was his second straight double-digit TD year with the G-Men, and Eli’s added confidence (and pressure from NY media and fans removed) following the Super Bowl victory should keep the success going.

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