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Matt Forte had an unbelievable rookie season compiling 1715 total yards (1238 rushing) and 12 TDs (8 rushing). Jay Cutler was brought in to keep defenses from stuffing the box. He was going in the top five of fantasy drafts. Then 2009 happened.

It wasn’t an utter failure as he piled up 1400 total yards (929 rushing) and 4 TDs, but a far cry from his brilliant rookie season and fantasy owner’s expectations. He failed to top 70 rushing yards in 11 games last year. He had 62 or fewer total yards, without a TD I might add, in four of his first six games. Imagine getting 6.2 or fewer points from your number one pick four out of six times to start the year. He killed fantasy owners.

That’s why it shouldn’t be a surprise why his ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, sits at 44 (22nd RB).  I have him right around the same place (click to see my 2010 RB rankings). With Chester Taylor and Mike Martz in town, it’s easy to see why people have soured on Forte. He didn’t help matters when he ran for seven yards on four carries in the preseason opener against the Chargers. Things, however, may have changed in the Bears’ second preseason game.

Forte ripped off an 89-yard touchdown run on his way to 109 yards on five carries. Clearly the burst that seemed to be missing is back. While Chester Taylor’s arrival may hurt him in the passing game, and subsequently knock his PPR value down a bit, Forte could be better served by having fresh legs down the stretch. That could be important because the Bears play in Buffalo, Green Bay, and four times in Chicago from Week 9 (November 7th) on. With those potential bad weather games, Forte could be very busy as the season winds down. Having somewhat fresh legs will go a long way.

If you aren’t able to draft Forte, you may be able to get him early in the season as he plays the Cowboys, Packers, and Giants in Weeks 2-4. If he struggles early, he could become an excellent buy low candidate. With a fantasy playoff schedule of New England, Minnesota, and the Jets, he may not help when you need it the most, but he can help get you there.

What are your thoughts on Matt Forte?

At least when he was backing up Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor was a pretty valuable commodity. You knew that the pieces were in place, name an impressive offensive line, for big time numbers if AP went down. He also brought something (pass receiving ability) to the table that wasn’t a strength for All Day. 

After signing with the Bears, he finds himself in an offense where neither of those will be in play. First of all, Chicago’s line went downhill fast. Not only do the struggle to protect the quarterback, but they have trouble opening holes. The tried to put a band-aid on it with Orlando Pace, but that failed miserably. Plus, they are short of draft picks to add one in the draft. The odds of their line improving this year are slim.

Matt Forte has 120 catches in two years meaning Chester’s receptions (45 & 44 the past two years) will likely come down. He could be hard-pressed to reach the 762.5 total yards he’s averaged as Peterson’s backup.

To me signing with Chicago makes little sense. If I were Chester Houston or Philly would have been more ideal destinations. Not only would he have the opportunity for more touches, but he’d be on a contender.  

Taylor is still worth having at the end of your draft, but he doesn’t have the upside he once did.

Brett Favre looked way better in his second preseason game with the Vikings, leading them to a 17-10 halftime lead over Houston.  Favre was 9 of 13 for 105 yards and 1 TD.  The TD was on a nice screen that Chester Taylor took 28 yards to the house. 

Pass protection again was a bit of a problem as Houston put pressure on Favre.  They do have an above average line though, so that’s to be expected.  Favre wasn’t able to go deep, but their primary deep threat, Bernard Berrian, did not play as he’s nursing a hamstring injury.

Favre did look to Visanthe Shiancoe early, so you may want to move him up on your draft boards if you haven’t already had your draft yet.  Favre is a low end QB2 in my opinion.  Chester Taylor has value in flex positions, as well as the obvious Adrian Peterson handcuff.  Percy Harvin made a lot of mental mistakes.  His talent is there, but if he can’t clean that up his opportunities will be limited.

**UPDATE**
Brett Favre stayed in to start the 3rd Quarter and finished 13 of 18 for 142 yards and 1 TD.  He also did a cheap crack back block on Texans Safety Eugene Wilson.

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By Marc Mancuso

As Chris Rock used to say… “Insurance is around in case s&*t happens.” For these guys its happened too much over the last 2 years so getting their backup is a smart move. These are insurance policies (handcuffs) for 1st/2nd rounders who are not in a defined timeshare AND either coming off injuries in 08, aging, or have an injury history.

In this age of multi-back attacks, some folks are not into this strategy, but I have to disagree. I recall my best fantasy team ever in 2005 when I had Domanick Davis as my lead back who went down to injuries during the season. I had the foresight to grab Jonathan Wells who saved my season and took me to the promised land of a fantasy championship. Wells got the bulk of the carries and I took him in the final rounds of the draft.

You will NOT see the RB1A’s of the world (LenDale White, Jonathan Stewart, Ahmad Bradshaw, etc.), but you will see guys who can save your season if your stud goes down.

Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers – LT has brought much happiness to FFL owners over the years, but father time is catching up fast to him. Sproles, like Rudy is 5 foot nothing a hundred nothing, but unlike him he is electrifying and doesn’t get killed on the field. Sproles has made a career of proving the doubters wrong, and San Diego nearly cutting LT should tell you how highly they think of him. Look for Sproles starting in round 8 in 12 team leagues.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – “Shady” backs up Brian Westbrook who is coming off yet another surgery and is always a threat to miss games. The knock on McCoy is that he can’t pass block and that is a concern in the West Coast offense. The good news is that his performance in camp has shown he’s an adequate blocker and he already resembles Westbrook’s running and receiving style. If Westbrook goes down McCoy becomes a very desirable starter in 12 team leagues. Like Sproles you’re looking to grab him starting in round 8.

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons – Michael Turner coming off 382 touches (376 carries, 6 receptions) in 2008 scares me and I need to be prepared if the Burner goes down. Norwood has been a threat to score each time he touches the ball and has been for the last three years. People are overlooking Norwood yet again, and you can grab him late and be assured that if Turner hits the skids that you’ve got a game breaker on your roster which will only cost you a 10th round or later pick

Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins – Another forgotten man who when given the opportunity can save your season as he did in 2006 when Clinton Portis went down with injuries. Unfortunately for Betts, Portis has been very durable over the years, which has limited his value. However, given how the game is, it may be a matter of time before Portis is sidelined due to the overall workload and the law of averages in such a violent sport. Betts’ combination of running and receiving skills make him a very smart handcuff for Portis owners. As long as Jason Campbell is the QB, don’t expect Washington to turn into the Saints anytime soon, so they will continue to be a conservative offense. The best part is that Betts is pretty much off the radar for many folks so you can hold off until after round 12 to grab him.

Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings – News flash – Adrian Peterson is a beast. Coming into the NFL he was a brittle beast. While he’s avoided the injury bug since joining the league, his upright running style and heavy workload is a risky proposition. Taylor is a very productive back when given the chance, and he can produce solid results in the event that he needs to fill in due to injury. Smart owners should begin looking to handcuff Peterson with Taylor starting in round 9.

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers – There is no real competition for Frank Gore and he’s looking fantastic in camp, so he will be getting the rock a lot this year. However, this is the same Frank Gore who has been hobbled in recent years and has an injury history dating back to his days at Miami. Coffee may not be as skilled as some of the other backs listed here, but opportunity is everything in fantasy and he has gotten good reviews from his coaches thus far. You should be able to grab him in the final rounds if you have roster space. In keeper leagues he has even more value.

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We’ve done the Big Dog RBs, Second Tier RBs, Third Tier RBs, Fourth Tier RBs, and Serviceable RBs, now it’s time to look at the Scrap Pile.  These are RBs that you’ll only use for bye weeks or in case of injury.

Ahman Green – He’s on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off an injury-plagued season.  However, he is still a starting RB (for the time being) so he’s worthy of a roster spot.  If he can stay healthy and Houston’s passing attack is on, there could be some decent weeks for Ahman.

DeAngelo Williams – He had close to 900 total yards last year while finishing strong (242 yards & 3 TDs in his last three games).  He also had 121 yards in Week 6 and 82 in Week 13 so he displayed some signs of life.  However, the Panthers brought in Jonathan Stewart for a reason.  DeAngelo may hold the starting job out of the gate, but he could easily be lapped.

Chester Taylor – If Adrian Peterson misses some time, Chester Taylor will vault into the Top Ten the weeks All Day is out.  As is, he’ll spell All Day and pick up some decent 40-60 yard games.  He’s probably the #1 handcuff out there.

Felix Jones – This dude is fast.  He’s from the University of Arkansas like Jerry Jones.  MB3 is the goods, but Felix will be taking carries for sure.  He’s also one of the best handcuffs given Dallas’ potent offense.

Deuce McAllister – He’ll turn 30 this year and is coming off an injury.  He also has to share the load with Reggie Bush in a pass-happy offense.  Things are stacked against him.  He will be the short-yardage guy though so he should score some TDs.  That said, I don’t see much more than 500 yards out of him.

Justin Fargas – You’ve got to feel a little bad for Fargas.  He ran for over 1000 yards last year for the sorry Raiders.  His reward?  The drafting of Run DMC.  He still should get some play though.  He clearly has big-game ability as evidenced by his three games of 139+ yards.  He averaged 106 yards and 0.6 TDs in Weeks 9-13.

Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall is interesting as the Steelers already have Willie Parker.  He’s got great speed with a great build.  He had a great Junior year for Illinois rushing for 1681 yards and 17 TDs.  He added 34 receptions.  Given his size over Fast Willie, he could get the goal line touches.

Ahmad Bradshaw/Derrick Ward - Ahmad didn’t do much in the regular season (190 yards), but looked pretty solid in the playoffs (208 yards in 4 games).  Ward looked good early, but didn’t didn’t do anything after Week 6 except for a big 154 yard effort in Week 13.  It’s likely that all three Giant RBs (Brandon Jacobs included) will get some touches.  If Jacobs goes down Bradshaw and Ward will have bigger roles.

Chris Brown – He was one of my Sleeper picks last year for Tennesse, and he did decent at times.  Now he’s on to Houston.  He seems older than the 27 he turned in April so there is still tread on the tires.  If (and most likely when) Ahman Green goes down, he’ll likely be thrust into the starter role.  Never much of a TD threat, he scored 4 in the last 5 weeks of the 2007 season. 

Chris Johnson – Replacing Chris Brown in Tennessee will be rookie Chris Johnson out of East Carolina.  He’s listed behind 2007 rookie Chris Henry, but the Titans must not have been thrilled with him given their 1st round selection of Johnson.  He’s not a big back, but could be a nice change-of-pace to LenDale White.  He’s lighting quick (4.24).  He had 1423 yards and 17 TDs rushing and another 528 yards and 6 TDs receiving.  He’ll have to prove he can stay healhty, but he’s a Home Run waiting to happen.

Jerious Norwood – His reign in Atlanta was short-lived as Michael Turner has stolen his starting gig.  He is lighting-quick though and should be a nice change-of-pace to Turner.  If Turner proves he can’t stay healthy or is not up to the task of being the Lead Dog, Norwood’s value will increase.

Warrick Dunn – Until he hangs up his cleats, I will not overlook Mr. Dunn.  He has quietly surpassed the 10,000 yard mark for his career.  How many people would have expected that.  Even in a down year he had close to 1000 total yards.  If Cadillac Williams isn’t up for the task, Dunn will still have some fantasy relevance.

Tatum Bell – If Kevin Smith doesn’t make the adjustments needed to be an NFL back suddenly Tatum Bell becomes interesting.  That said, the ceiling is rather low for Bell, and I wouldn’t get my hopes up if I were him.

Ladell Betts – He proved he’s more than capable if CP goes down.  However, Portis has been very durable in his career.  Betts will take touches away to keep CP fresh, but don’t look for major numbers out of Betts barring an unforseen injury.

Ryan Torain – He plays for Denver so never count him out.  The rookie out of Arizona State probably has the highest high-low differential in the league.

DeShaun Foster – He’s backing up Frank Gore now so there’s not much hope for Foster.  However, if Gore goes down, Foster is an adequate replacement.

Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith – If Larry Johnson suffers a setback, the load will likely be shared between Kolby, who ran decent down the stretch, and rookie Jamaal Charles out of Texas.

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