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Image courtesy of ESPN Chicago
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Written by Aaron Somers from Blogging From the Bleachers
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Just over seven months ago the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays completed one of the bigger trades of this past offseason. The deal sent starting pitcher Matt Garza along with outfielder Fernando Perez and minor league pitcher Zach Rosscup to the Cubs in exchange for five players – outfielders Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer, catcher Robinson Chirinos, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, and pitcher Chris Archer.
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When the deal was completed on January 8th it was widely viewed as one that could prove to be a win for both sides. Tampa Bay was giving up the most experienced starter on their staff but were receiving a quality collection of players in return. Meanwhile, Chicago received a top shelf starting pitcher for what they felt included none of their top prospects. Most critics and media members alike seemed to agree.
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There was a minority who felt that Cubs had drastically overpaid, however. The thought was the package as a whole was was too much, but specifically the inclusion of both Lee and Archer was too risky for a player of Garza’s caliber. Ryan Maloney of Prose and Ivy, one of the top Cubs blogs out there, summed up the situation pretty well the day after the trade:

The Cubs make one move and I already think next year is going to be the year. It’s pathetic really. When will I ever learn? Probably never. I guess that’s part of the fun though in being a baseball fan, right? Especially in being a Cubs fan. No one utters This is the Year or Wait Until Next Year like a Cubs fan. As if (Carlos) Pena wasn’t enough (and really, he wasn’t … merely replacing (Derrek)Lee’s bat in the lineup wasn’t exactly what I thought was the move necessary to put us over the hump), then the Cubs go and bet the farm on Garza.
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About that. People saying the Cubs bet the farm? I think it’s overblown. We gave up a couple of top prospects and a talented, hard nosed outfielder we have no plans on ever really using again. Otherwise, we kept top pitching in addition to (Josh) Vitters and a number of other young top prospects in the organization, safe and sound. Enough about the Cubs betting the farm on Garza … although if we did, I might be ok with that. I’m just glad we didn’t have to.

Seven calendar months and half a season later, let’s take a look at how the trade has worked out for both sides and whether the early thoughts on the deal still hold true.

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Ryan Dempster was a roller coaster ride last year. Check out his ERA by month:
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April:  2.75
May:  4.54
June:  3.24
July:  5.03
August:  2.89
September/October:  4.59
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This year Dempster started off in the outhouse with a 9.58 ERA in April. He then went 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA in May and 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA in June. I wouldn’t quite call that the penthouse, but he has his numbers at least looking respectable at 5-6 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
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Since his back-to-back seven run disasters Dempster is 4-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He’s not going to fool anyone for Justin Verlander of Cliff Lee, but at least he’s looking like the pitcher that we’ve come to know over the past couple of seasons. We knew he wasn’t as good as the 17-6, 2.96 season he posted in 2008, but he combined to go 26-21 with a 3.75 ERA and 380 strikeouts in 415-1/3 innings in 2009 and 2010.
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Dempster has turned his season around, but I would be cautious using him on the road. He was blasted for six runs in five innings as recent as June 3rd. With a 6.86 ERA away from Wrigley I would only use him when the match-up is favorable. For instance, he faces the Nationals on the road on the Fourth of July. With Americana in the air I would roll the dice on that road start. It’s early enough in the week that you can make some adjustments if it doesn’t go your way.
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While I don’t think it will be entirely smooth sailing for Dempster the rest of the way, I do feel he will be a solid option for the most part.
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Also check out:

• Michael Cuddyer:  The Glue Guy
• Fantasy Baseball Youth Movement: This Year or Not?
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• Can Scott Rolen Keep Rolling?

Image courtesy of ESPN Chicago
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Matt Garza is getting rocked this spring. I’m not talking about a guy giving up the occasional long ball. I’m talking about a guy that had an ERA of 8.68 ERA entering Tuesday’s Cactus League action against a split Diamondbacks squad. I’m talking about a guy who got rocked for seven runs on eleven hit in three innings that limped away with a 10.38 ERA. I realize that you want your pitcher to get stretched out during spring training while avoiding injury. That’s what is important. Getting the occasional scoreless inning would be nice though.
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Garza got bombed during spring training in 2009 as well, posting a bloated 6.10 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .313 BAA. He didn’t let it ruin his season though. Garza posted a 3.82 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and .175 BAA in April that year. That month has been good for Garza through his career. He sports his best winning percentage (.667) of any month along with his lowest BAA (.219). His WHIP of 1.23 is second to only May’s 1.21 WHIP. His April ERA (3.67) is third lowest of any month, and 0.30 lower than his career mark.
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Matt Garza has historically been a fast starter.  His numbers before the All-Star Break (24-17, 3.82 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .242 BAA) are significantly better than his numbers after the break (18-27, 4.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .262 BAA). If history repeats, the beginning of the year is the best time to own Garza. If you can get him now while his owners are feeling buyer’s remorse, you should be able to get him at a discount. I wouldn’t blame you if you played the wait and see approach to make sure he gets back on track. Then reap the benefits. If you want to cut ties with him around the end of July when he historically begins to fade, you could again get good value for him.
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Fantasy baseball is a bit like a stock market in that sense. You want to buy low when you see a good value. Once it gets rolling you want to ride it while its hot and get off just in time. To me Matt Garza seems like that kind of stock right now. Get him at a discount while you can.
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks
• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
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• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Closer Rankings

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Alfonso Soriano turned 35 in January. He managed to play 147 games last year, but he missed 125 games combined the three previous seasons. He was once considered an elite fantasy outfielder, but those days are over.
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While his 24 HRs put him in a tie for 15th among outfielders, the rest of his numbers fall way short of upper echelon outfielders. His 67 runs were tied for 49th. His 79 RBI ranked 24th. He was once a stolen base threat, but his five SBs were worse than 75 outfielders. His .258 batting average was tied for 41st. Those simply aren’t the numbers we’ve come to expect from Alfonso Soriano…or are they?
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Granted he missed 98 games in 2008 and 2009, but his average line from 2008-2010 is .259, 69 runs, 24.3 HRs, 69.7 RBI, and 11 SBs. He’s simply not the same player that averaged 106.2 runs, 36.7 HRs, 92.2 RBI, and 30.7 SBs from 2002-2007.

The wait is over. If you grabbed Kerry Wood in your fantasy draft, you finally can use his services. No word on whether or not he’ll be eased into the closer’s role or get a baptism by fire. The good news is you have the weekend to see how things shake out before you have to set your lineup for next week. I wouldn’t necessarily drop Chris Perez right away in case Wood struggles or gets hurt again.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI