LestersLegends.com

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By Matt Carpenter
twitter.com/carmatts
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Clayton Kershaw has quickly established himself as the Dodger’s ace, but can he be relied on as the anchor of your fantasy staff. In 2010, Kershaw racked up a 13-10 record, 2.91 ERA, 212 K’s, and 1.18 WHIP. Certainly everything but the wins qualifies him as an elite starter and the best may be yet to come.
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Entering his third full season, Kershaw will only be 23, when he takes the mound opening day. Kershaw’s stats are mouthwatering. In 2010, Kershaw ranked in the top ten in the following categories: K’s, BAA, K’s per nine innings, and hits per nine innings. Did we mention he’ll only be 23 this year? His great stuff combines with the fact that he is pitching in one of the best pitchers parks and in the weakest hitters division in all of baseball.
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The primary concern regarding Kershaw has always been his walk rate, which leads to short outings and cuts down on his chances for accumulating wins. Last season Kershaw improved his walk rate from 4.8 BB/9 and pitchers per plate appearance (P/PA) of 4.32 in 2009, to 3.6 BB/9 and 4.00 PPA in 2010. He also increased his innings per start ratio from 5.63 to 6.39, allowing him to reach the 200 inning’s pitched milestone for the first time in 2010. An interesting note is that Kershaw’s road ERA of 2.43 was actually better than his home ERA of 3.33 despite a BAA of .207 at the pitchers haven that is Dodger Stadium, suggesting he was unlucky at home and those numbers should improve.
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According to Mock Draft Central, Kershaw’s current APD is 52, the ninth pitcher off the board, right behind C.C. Sabathia and ahead of Dan Haren. His numbers are already top ten and still has as much upside as any pitcher in baseball. This will be the last year he is drafted outside of round three.
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

Now an early look at the NL West.

1. Will Chris Young continue to regress?
I’m not sure his average can dip any lower than .212 so I would expect that number to rise. Even if he gets up to his pathetic .235 career average, he’s useless unless he can get the HRs and SBs back. The problem is he didn’t steal a base after June last year. He did have 8 HRs in 108 September/October ABs (13.5 AB/HR). His numbers should be better than last year, but without a guarantee that he’ll get to at least a 20-20 level, I can’t justify taking on his average.

2. Can Troy Tulowitzki follow up his monster year with another one?
Absolutely. While he set the bar high with his .297, 101 Run, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB season, he already had a similar season in 2007. He absolutely punished the ball after the All-Star Break hitting .344 with 52 Runs, 16 HRs, 55 RBIs, and 9 SBs in 259 ABs. If he can get off to a better start, he should easily have his best average to date. He should also have more Runs and RBIs. He hit a fair share of HRs and destroyed his previous SB total. I’m not sure he increases in either category. In fact, I expect him to steal fewer bases in 2010.

3. Will Jorge de la Rosa be a solid fantasy option in 2010?
I have no doubts that he’ll continue to rack up the strikeouts. He has averaged 9.17 K/9 the past two seasons. He was 0-6 through May and went 16-3 the rest of the way. What really impressed me though is how he got his ERA (3.39) & WHIP (1.29) in order after June. You may be able to get him at a value because of the Coors Field stigma placed on pitchers.

4. Will Manny Being Manny mean better numbers this year?
Manny started on fire, got suspended for steroids, and wasn’t nearly the same hitter when he returned. He still managed to hit 19 HRs in 352 ABs (18.5). What suffered the most was his batting average. He hit just .229 in September. He’ll turn 38 in the beginning of the year, and I have a hard time believing he’ll ever be that .320, 35, 120 guy ever again. He’ll still put up good numbers. He’s too good of a hitter not to, but make sure when you draft him, you’re not drafting him on name value.

5. Is Clayton Kershaw ready to become a star?
Kershaw did everything you would want out of a pitcher last year except win. His ERA (.279), WHIP (1.23), strikeouts (185), K/9 ratio (9.74), and BAA (.200) were all very impressive. However he managed to go just 8-8. With numbers like that, the Wins are bound to come. With a little more luck, he could double his win output in 2010.

6. Can Kyle Blanks hit 30 HRs this year for the Padres?
Blanks was impressive at times last year hitting 10 HRs in 148 ABs. While his foot should be healed for the upcoming season, I’m afraid 30 HRs may be too tall an order for the young slugger. Had he got more seasoning last year, it would improve his odds, but I still think he’s a long shot to hit even 25 HRs.

7. Will Adrian Gonzalez get traded?
Doubtful. He’s only due $10.25 million over the next two years. They still need to put butts in the seats so don’t look for Adrian to be gone anytime soon.

8. Will Matt Cain be overpriced in 2010?
Probably. If you’re drafting him on the 2.89 ERA he posted last year, you’re probably looking for trouble. While I think he should post a solid ERA, it will likely be at least a half a run higher in 2010. Even as brilliantly as he pitched last year he managed to win just 14 games. Even Tim Lincecum managed just 15 wins last year. The Giants just don’t have the horses on offense to win a bunch of ball games. What you’ll get is a guy who wins around 13 games, with a 3.30ish ERA, 1.25ish WHIP, and 180 Ks, which likely won’t justify where he’ll be drafted.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Francisco Liriano – Liriano exploded on the scene in 2006 going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA.  He missed 2007 and struggled early last year following Tommy John surgery.  After tearing up the Minors, Liriano returned to go 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .236 BAA in eleven starts in August and September.  His September numbers (4.66 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .289 BAA in five starts) were a little alarming, but he was probably dealing with arm fatigue.  The Twins are one of the best at pacing their starters so that shouldn’t plague Liriano in 2009.  If he stays healthy he should be able to win 16+ games with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Joba Chamberlain - The Yankees are taking it slow with their young star as well.  When he’s healthy he is nearly unhittable, as evidenced by his career 2.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .217 BAA.  With the addition of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, and a healthy Chien-Ming Wang, there won’t be as much pressure on Joba to perform. He’ll settle into that fifth spot in the rotation, behind Andy Pettitte, and the early schedule should allow him the opportunity to miss a start or two if that’s in his best interest.  The limitations the Yankees will put on him will keep him from having a monster year, but he should be able to win 12-14 games with a low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. 

Yovani Gallardo – A knee injury cost Gallardo the opportunity to build on the solid 2007 season (9-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA).  In just four starts last year Gallardo had a 1.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .256 BAA.  With the departure of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, Gallardo will have a chance to be a key member of the Brewers Pitching Staff.  With their solid Offense, he could win 14-16 games if he stays healthy with low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. 

David Price - Price toyed with Major League competition last year posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a .176 BAA.  His success spilled over into the postseason posting a 1.59 ERA in five relief appearances.  Whether Tampa Bay uses his as a Reliever or a Starter, Price will give your fantasy team a boost in ERA and R.

Jonathan Broxton – Broxton took the Closer job last July and ran with it.  He recorded 14 Saves with a 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .200 BAA with 42 Ks in 29.3 Innings after the All-Star Break.  He was solid in a setup role the previous two and a half seasons so his success isn’t a fluke.  Now that the Dodgers have secured Manny Ramirez’s services, they’ll likely build on their success of last year meaning Broxton could have plenty of Save opportunites.  I don’t think he’ll have a problem reach 30-35 Saves.

Josh Johnson – Johnson went 7-1 last year with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.  Opponents did bat .275 on him, but his other numbers are still solid.  In 2006 he was 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .236 BAA.  He is also trying to continue a successful return from Tommy John surgery.  If he stays healthy he could win 12-14 games with a sub-4.00 ERA

Clayton Kershaw – Clayton went 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a .265 BAA.  He did show improvement after the All-Star Break going 5-3 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .262 BAA.  In the Minors he went 12-10 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.  His K/9 ratio in the Minors was 11.3, and a decent 8.4 in the Bigs.  He could win 12+ games with a sub-4.00 ERA.

Max Scherzer – Max failed to pick up a Win last year in seven starts (16 Games), but did manage a 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .234.  He recorded 66 Ks in 56 Innings (10.6 K/9).  He’s been battling shoulder inflammation and may not have a spot in the rotation initially, but he’s too good of a talent to not get a chance.  In thirty Minor League starts Max is 8-5 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  His Minor League K/9 ratio is 11.9.  Given that his role has yet to be determined, his Win total likely won’t help fantasy teams, but he’ll be a nice source for Ks, ERA, and WHIP.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Clayton Kershaw was one of the more hyped young pitchers of 2008, though his numbers did not quite match the attention he received.  That is somewhat similar to a young pitcher who made his debut in 2007, then took the baseball world by storm last season in the Giants Tim Lincecum.  Let’s take a look at how their rookie seasons stack up before we get into the rest of the information:

Kershaw (’08): 5-5, 4.26 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 100 K in 107.2 IP
Lincecum (’07): 7-5, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 K in 146.1 IP

Yes, Lincecum’s numbers were a bit better across the board, especially in the WHIP department.  It wasn’t that Lincecum had tremendously better control, because he was walking 4.00 batters per 9 innings in his rookie season, compared to Kershaw’s 4.35.  No, he was just less hittable, allowing opponents to hit .228 against him, compared to Kershaw’s .264.

That’s a big difference, but one that I would anticipate Kershaw, who hadn’t pitched above Double A prior to last season, to correct, at least partially, in ‘09.  It’s not like the number is terrible, not by any stretch, but there is plenty of room for improvement.  Had he had enough innings to qualify, he pretty much would have found him smack in the middle of the league, right in line with Barry Zito (.268), Dana Eveland (.266) and Jamie Moyer (.264).  Kershaw’s pure stuff is better than all of those pitchers, and I expect him to use it significantly better with a year under his belt.

The strikeouts are another number worth noting.  In his rookie year, Lincecum had a K/9 of 9.23 (a number he improved to 10.51 in his second season).  Kershaw was not quite at that level, but he did carry a very useful 8.36 K/9 in ‘08.  The number was better over the final 2 months of the season, when he had a K/9 of 9.00 (60 K’s over 60 innings).

In September Kershaw actually showed us a glimpse of just how good he could be.  In 6 appearances (5 starts), he went 3-0 with an impressive 3.45 ERA.

You would expect it to take young pitchers a little bit of time to adjust to facing major league hitters.  Tim Lincecum got beat up badly early on (7.71 ERA in June), but suddenly put things together in July of ‘07, going 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA in 5 starts.  Yes, he wasn’t quite as good in August and September, but overall his post All-Star Break ERA was at 3.39, compared to 4.63 prior to it.  It simply takes pitchers some time, so the fact that you saw Kershaw make improvements is a great sign.

The final number to look at is the number of HR’s that Kershaw gave up, nearly 1 per 9 innings.  Like his batting average against, it’s not an awful number, but it certainly isn’t a pretty one either.  In contrast, Lincecum’s HR/9 was 0.74 during his rookie campaign, which he reduced to 0.44 last season.  I don’t expect Kershaw to enjoy the same type of drop-off, but seeing that he did not allow a HR at Double A prior to his recall (61.1 innings), does give me some hope.

So, with all of that said, exactly what do I project Kershaw to do in ‘09:

194.2 IP, 14 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 191 K (8.85 K/9), 75 BB (3.48 BB/9)

I don’t see innings being an issue for him, as he threw a total of 169 innings this season.  As we saw with Lincecum in 2008, I feel like Kershaw is going to improve dramatically in his first full season at the major league level.  Don’t get me wrong, Kershaw is not going to put up a season similar to what Lincecum did, but with a strong line-up behind him, he should emerge as a solid #3 pitcher in all formats.

To me, he’s certainly a pitcher to target in the middle rounds of your draft this season, as he has the potential to exceed any expectations, even the very positive ones that I provided for you here.  He could be one of the elite, and I’d certainly recommend rolling the dice on him.

For more great fantasy info, check out Rotoprofessor.com.