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When I put together my early 2011 fantasy football running back rankings Peyton Hillis missed the cut. After 1654 total yards (1177 rushing, 477 receiving) and 13 touchdowns (11 rushing, 2 receiving) there are questions at the validity of my rankings. Well, I’m here to defend my rankings.
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Cleveland GM Tom Heckert admitted that Hillis received too many touches last year. After just 68 carries and 18 catches in his first two seasons, Hillis had 270 carries and 61 catches. His numbers suggest that the heavy workload led to Hillis wearing down. After 11 touchdowns in the first 11 games, he went scoreless in the Browns’ final five games. After averaging 116.6 total yards through the first 13 games, he averaged 46 over the final three games.
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If that decline doesn’t give you pause, you have more intestinal fortitude than I do.
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Let’s not forget that Montario Hardesty missed all of last year with a knee injury. Hardesty was drafted in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft with the notion that he would challenge for the starting gig. He injured his knee early and the rest is history.
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Reports suggest that  Hardesty’s knee rehab is on schedule and he shouldn’t miss any training camp when and if the lockout is lifted. If he is even close to 100 percent, he’ll cut into Hillis’ carries, which would jive with Heckert’s plans to lessen Peyton’s workload.
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It’s not that I dislike Hillis, but there are a lot of good backs this year. Arian Foster, AP, CJ2K, Jamaal Charles, Turner, Mendenhall, Run DMC, Rice, McCoy, and MJD. That’s ten backs that I think without question should be ranked ahead of Hillis. Throw in veterans Gore and S-Jax and you have 12. Shonn Green is expected to carry a heavier load. J-Stew could be operating with D-Will, which could make him shoot up the draft board. Matt Forte has a better track record of success.
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Maybe Green or Forte could be bumped for Hillis, but they don’t give me a bad feeling like Hillis does.
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Finally, we have to discuss the elephant in the room. I am generally not a superstitious person, but Hillis is on the Madden cover. While I would not necessarily let that affect my drafting decision, you are tempting fate when you take the bruising running back.
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Where do you rank Peyton Hillis?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings

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While the AFC East running back landscape is a mess, the AFC North is a goldmine.
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Ray Rice is a force, both running and catching the football. He regressed some last year, but still managed 1776 total yards (1220 rushing, 556 receiving) and six touchdowns (five rushing, one receiving). Willis McGahee is up in the air, but it makes sense for him to return to Baltimore next year. Rice is a top five to eight fantasy running back depending on your format.
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Rashard Mendenhall followed up his 1108 yard, seven touchdown season with an even more impressive 1273 yard, 11 touchdown season. Mendy is a clear RB1 and a top eight to ten fantasy running back depending on your format. I actually like him a little better than Ray Rice in non-PPR leagues. He may make some bonehead comments, but he is a fantasy force with little competition for carries.
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Cedric Benson is a free agent, but is likely to return to Cincinnati. He is a workhorse back that should crack the 1000 yard mark again. Benson is a solid RB2 that also shouldn’t receive much competition for carries. If he does part via free agency, all bets are off in Cincinnati.
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Peyton Hillis‘ impressive season landed him on the cover of Madden 12. Obviously there is a curse that supposedly goes with it, but after the way he ran roughshod on the Ravens last year, he may be able to stand up to the curse. He slowed towards the end of the year, and the Browns have already stated that they want to reduce his carries. Montario Hardesty should be in the mix for carries, but Hillis has earned the feature role. Hillis is a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2.
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Also check out:

• AFC East Running Back Situations
• AFC East Quarterback Situations
• AFC North Quarterback Situations
• AFC South Quarterback Situations
• AFC West Quarterback Situations
• NFC East Quarterback Situations
• NFC North Quarterback Situations
• NFC South Quarterback Situations
• NFC West Quarterback Situations

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This week’s topic:
What top 15 running back do you feel is poised for a fall?
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My response:
Even before winning the Madden NFL 12 cover contest, I was down on Peyton Hillis. Now that he also has the Madden Curse to deal with, that pretty much sealed his fate for me. The likelihood that he will be available when I am comfortable drafting him is razor thin.
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Browns GM Tom Heckert admitted that the Browns overused Hillis last year. There is little chance he gets as many touches this year. Montario Hardesty should be fully recovered from his ACL surgery, which will put them both smack dab in the middle of a RBBC. Hardesty was supposed to be the featured back before suffering the injury. Obviously Hillis played his way into a healthy workload, but he will have to share.
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As Colt McCoy becomes more comfortable in the offense, I anticipate the Browns attempting more than the 478 passes they did last year, which could also cut into the workload.
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Hillis finished the season averaging 35.7 rushing yards in his last three games and 54.4 in his last five. After scoring 13 touchdowns (11 rushing) in his first 11 games, he failed to score in his final five. Like I said, the writing was on the wall before the Madden cover. Do you really want to test the Madden Curse with an early draft pick?

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Like the AFC East this division is split between teams that have established quarterbacks and teams that are hopeful that their young quarterbacks will deliver.
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Ben Roethlisberger may be better equipped to deal with the lockout than any quarterback in the league. After all he sat out the first four games last year and stepped in with a three-touchdown performance in his season debut. Despite playing in 12 games he finished with 3200 yards and 17 TDs (5 INTs). Big Ben knows the offense and knows his players. If the lockout drags on, the veteran Steelers could actually be at an advantage. Big Ben is a solid QB1 that you should to be get at a good value.
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Joe Flacco had a solid season throwing for 3622 yard and 25 TDs (10 INTs). Unfortunately his number seem to decline at the end of the year. Last year he averaged 169.7 passing yards in Weeks 14-16 and 249 yards in the first 12 games. In 2009 he averaged 210 yards in Weeks 14-16 and 240.1 in the first 12 games. In fantasy championship week, typically week 16, he has averaged 134 yards the past two years. The Ravens added speedster Torrey Smith to help stretch the defenses. He should be a nice compliment to Anquan Boldin. Flacco remains a borderline QB1 and should put up solid numbers once again.
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Colt McCoy is back with some experience under his belt. He didn’t light the world on fire, but he didn’t crash and burn either. He completed 60.8 percent of his passes, a number that should rise as he is well-suited for the West Coast Offense the Browns run. They could have added Julio Jones, but opted to trade out of the sixth pick in the draft. They did add Greg Little in the second round, who could end up being one of the best receivers in this class.
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Finally we have the Cincinnati Bengals. Carson Palmer is as good as gone. Whether he is traded, retires, or just sits out the year is the question. Andy Dalton was taken in the second round and he has a good chance to open the season as the starter. Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are also likely to be gone, but Jerome Simpson came on at the end of the year and they added A.J. Green in the draft. With Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham, Dalton has a good chance to be a solid QB2 as a rookie.
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Also check out:

• AFC East Quarterback Situations

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Having fun with the SMW Clothing t-shirt contests? Good, because the fine people over there are hooking you up with another chance to add to your wardrobe.
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For this week’s contest, you have to guess, without going over, how many total yards Cleveland running back Peyton Hills will get against Buffalo on Sunday. For the record, he’s averaging 116.5 total yards per game with a high of 220 yards and a low of 61.
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The Bills are one of the worst defenses in the league allowing more rushing yards (170.9 per game) than any other ream in the league.
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So leave a comment with your best guess and be sure to check out SMW Clothing.