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2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Third Baseman: Lonnie Chisenhall

10 February 2012

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Cleveland Indian Third Baseman Lonnie Chisenhall had a modest .255-27-7-22-1 line in his 66-game debut. He didn’t blow you away, but remember that Chisenhall turned just 23 as the season came to a close. Obviously at that age there is plenty of room for improvement.
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He is locked in along with second baseman Jason Kipnis and catcher Carlos Santana as Cleveland goes with a youth movement.
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Chisenhall’s overall numbers weren’t great, but he did finish strong. After hitting .238 in 126 at bats from June-August, Lonnie hit .279 in 86 September at bats. He hit four home runs in September (21.5 HR/AB) and three prior (42.0 AB/HR). While you would like to see more at bats per strikeout than the 5.05 he averaged in September, it was more than a full at bat per strikeout better than June-August.
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Chisenhall didn’t exactly tear it up in the minors hitting .262 at the Double-A level and .267 for Triple-A Columbus. That said, he continued to move up the ranks to make it to the show at 22. The fact that he wasn’t overwhelmed with the jump is encouraging.
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The fact that he held his own against left-handed pitching also serves him well. He actually hit lefties (.260, .888 OPS) much better than righties (.253, .640).
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Chisenhall should not be thought of as your fantasy starter, even at a shallow position like third base. I wouldn’t even want him as my corner infielder either. Not with the bevy of first basemen available. You won’t have to either. With a Mock Draft Central ADP of 366, that would be the 31st round, which is more than most leagues have.
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Chisenhall is a guy to keep an eye on if he starts the season of the way he finished last year. He can also help out if your third baseman goes down with an injury.
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Should Justin Masterson Owners Be Nervous?

3 June 2011

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Justin Masterson is 0-3 in his past four starts with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.
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He has not been as effective, but the Cleveland offense isn’t being as helpful either. In his first six starts the Tribe averaged 6.3 runs. In his past five starts they’ve averaged just 1.6 runs. No matter how well you pitch, it’s hard to win when your team’s bats go silent.
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In those past four starts, two have been stinkers. Both against Tampa Bay. He allowed five runs in 5-2/3 innings on May 12th and seven runs (six earned) in five innings on May 29th. He other two starts he gave up a combined three runs over 15-2/3 innings.
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Two bad starts against a team that has his number (he had a 5.40 ERA against them last year, 7.71 in 2009, 5.65 in 2008) doesn’t take away from the season he is having. He has had quality starts in each of his other nine starts, and has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of them.
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Masterson hasn’t had the best luck in May, as evidenced by his .331 BABIP for the month. It was .255 in April. This month is likely just a way of evening things out. It will likely be somewhere around .300 by season’s end.
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While it’s not at the panic stage, fantasy owners should be a little concerned about his walk rate. Masterson had 13 walks in his first seven starts over 47 innings (2.49 BB/9) and 13 in his past four starts over 26-1/3 innings (4.44 BB/9). Control has been an issue for Masterson in the past so it’s something to keep an eye on.
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I wouldn’t blame you if you held him out of tonight’s game against Texas. They certainly have the ability to add to make his numbers continue to rise. There is no need for widespread panic though (even if the Rangers light him up). He has emerged as a reliable fantasy option and should continue to be. He just set the bar so high for himself with the way he started the season.
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If his owners are beginning to panic a bit, you could possibly get him at a discount. If he struggles tonight, it may be worth an inquiry.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: Cleveland Indians, fantasy baseball, Justin Masterson, MLB |

Should You Buy Low on Carlos Santana?

27 May 2011

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Carlos Santana enters today’s game hitting .203 with 21 runs, six home runs, 21 RBI, and a .706 OPS. In April, you could live with the poor average (.198) because he provided five home runs and 17 RBI in 24 games. This month, however, is a different story.
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Through 19 games Santana’s average is up to .210, which doesn’t exactly excite you, but he only has one home run and four RBI.
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He has a ton of potential, but the results haven’t been there. It’s tough to look at the past to see if a turnaround is in sight because he has played in just 89 games and has just 298 at bats.
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Fantasy owners haven’t given up on him yet as he is still owned in virtually every mixed fantasy league, but if there is ever a time for the taking, it is now.
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Given his struggles and small sample size it will take a bit of a leap of faith. He has delivered in the minor leagues, but there is a chance that he’s the catcher version of Chris Davis, who kills it in the minors, but struggles with major league pitching.
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Part of Santana’s struggles can be attributed to bad luck. His BABIP is a mere .216. In about the same amount of at bats last year for the Tribe Carlos had a BABIP of .216. Like his average that improved slightly yet remains below par, his BABIP has improved to .245 for the month, which is up from .194 in April.
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There is no guaranteeing that he’ll turn this thing around. If he can at least provide the home runs and RBI he is capable of, Santana will at least have some value. If you’re a gambler, it’s worth at least trying to pin down his asking price. If you find a realistic owner, you could possibly work something out. If that owner is holding out hope that Santana will perform like everybody expected him to, the bounty will likely be too high.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians, fantasy baseball, MLB |

Can You Trust Josh Tomlin’s Fast Start?

5 May 2011

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Thomas Ondrey / The Plain Dealer
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Cleveland Indians pitcher Josh Tomlin is off to one of the more surprising starts in the league. He was decent last year going 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, but not many expected him to be one of the elite pitchers. That’s what he is right now.
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Tomlin is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. He is tied for seventh in wins with the likes of Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Dan Haren, and Tommy Hanson. I know A.J. Burnett and Carlos Zambrano also have four wins, but still it’s pretty elite company considering only 23 pitchers have four or more wins. His ERA ranks 14th.
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Wins are subjective because you can’t help the run support you get. ERA though is more under a pitcher’s control. Tomlin is one of eight pitchers with four or more wins and an ERA below 2.50.
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Tomlin’s WHIP is the second lowest in the league behind Josh Johnson’s 0.71. Only six pitchers (Tomlin, Haren, Jared Weaver, Kyle Lohse, Hudson, and Halladay) have four or more wins, an ERA below 2.50 ERA, and a WHIP below 1.00.
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You get the point. While he’s not considered an elite pitching talent, he is putting up numbers that put him in the conversation…until you start talking about strikeouts.
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Tomlin is tied for 81st entering Thursday’s games with 23 strikeouts. His K/9 ratio of 5.09 ranks 93rd. It’s actually slightly below the 5.30 mark he established last year. He was a little better last year for Triple-A Columbus at 6.71, but that is a far cry from a strikeout artist.
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Suddenly the foundation of Tomlin as a top fantasy option is starting to show some cracks. When you struggle to make batters miss, you put yourself at greater risk.
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Even more troublesome is his .157 BABIP, which is the lowest in the league. He also has the second lowest strand rate at 90.9 percent. That kind of luck isn’t likely to continue all year.
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The Tribe have improved so a double-digit win total isn’t out of reach. With his control the WHIP should remain an asset to fantasy owners. The ERA will definitely inflate, but it could still prove useful to fantasy owners, however without the strikeouts he is best used when he has favorable match-ups.
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He could also be used as trade bait. I consider him more valuable as an add-on to a two-for-one deal in which you’re looking to acquire the best piece in the trade. Nobody is going to give you much straight up for him, but he could be the piece to help you land a coveted player.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: Cleveland Indians, fantasy baseball, Josh Tomlin, MLB |

2011 AL Central Preview

28 February 2011

LestersLegends.com is teaming up with EE Sports World.com to break down all the divisions in baseball. My assignment was the AL Central. I’ll review the teams in the order I expect them to finish.
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First Place: Minnesota Twins
The key to the Twins success is the health of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan. Minnesota did an excellent job piecing things together last year with Jim Thome, Michael Cuddyer and company, but if they want to repeat as American League Central Champions, they’ll need Morneau’s bat. The Twins always seem to get by at closer so this isn’t nearly as primary a concern. Even if he falters, they have Matt Capps as an insurance policy.
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The Twins added Tsuyoshi Nishioka in the offseason to bolster their middle infield. The rest of their moves were just securing their free agents, namely Carl Pavano and Jim Thome. Delmon Young and Danny Valencia were pleasant surprises for the Twins last year while Michael Cuddyer once again showed his versatility. Denard Span struggled at times, but should bounce back.
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Francisco Liriano shined in the rotation, which will be the key to the Twins success. If they can get strong efforts from Liriano, Pavano, Scott Baker, and company there is a good chance that Ron Gardenhire pulls the right strings again to maintain A.L. Central dominance.
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Second Place: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox added some firepower in the offseason by bringing in Adam Dunn to join the likes of Alex Rios, Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, and Carlos Quentin. Juan Pierre will once again set the table, and Gordon Beckham looks to break out.
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The White Sox have a solid rotation, and should get a nice boost when Jake Peavy returns from shoulder surgery around the All-Star Break. Until then, it will be up to John Danks, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson to carry the load. The White Sox lost Bobby Jenks in the bullpen, but Matt Thornton and Chris Sale should be up to the task.
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Ozzie Guillen will be entertaining, or annoying depending on your point of view, once again. You cannot accuse him of not speaking his mind. The White Sox seem to have a mental block that keeps them from getting past the Twins. If they can overcome it, the division is theirs for the taking.
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Third Place: Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera is the most talented player in the division, but he may also be the most troubled. Good news for Tigers fans and his fantasy owners that his arrest happened before the season started. He’s dealing with a serious issue though that is bigger than baseball. Fortunately the structure of the season could be what he needs to keep his life in order.
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On a less serious note, the addition of Victor Martinez gives the team a little more firepower. With Austin Jackson, Ryan Raburn, Carlos Guillen, and Jhonny Peralta, the Tigers could have a potent offense in 2011. Justin Verlander anchors the pitching staff with Max Scherzer living up to his promise. There are question marks in the back end of their rotation, which makes it hard for me to imagine they can surpass the Twins or the White Sox.
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Fourth Place: Cleveland Indians
The Indians could actually surprise some people this year. Shin-Soo Choo is one of the most underrated players in the American League. Grady Sizemore is trying to recover from knee surgery. He was one of the most exciting players in baseball, and could really help their offense. Carlos Santana looks like one of the best young catchers in the league while Orlando Cabrera will provide veteran leadership. If players like Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta can take the next step, the Tribe have an outside shot of taking third place.
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That is, if they get the pitching they need. Fausto Carmona had a strong year, but if he loses his mechanics on his sinker, he can go south fast. Justin Masterson has the goods, he just needs to work on his control issues. Too many free passes lead to big innings. Chris Perez is a solid closer, but the rest of the pitching staff is loaded with question marks.
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Fifth Place: Kansas City Royals
Zack Greinke is gone. Jeff Francis, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, and Vin Mazzaro do not intimidate opposing batters. Joakim Soria is one of the best closers in the American League, but how many leads will he be able to protect? Speaking of protecting, who is going to protect Billy Butler in the Royals’ lineup? Mike Aviles had a strong finish to last year and Kila Ka’aihue has a cool name and some pop, but this is a team that is going to struggle to avoid 100 losses.
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