LestersLegends.com

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Jhoulys Chacin has hit a major speed bump on his road to fantasy stardom. After going 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA in his first 15 starts, he’s gone 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA over his past five. He did have a hard luck loss in the mix in which he allowed just one run over seven innings to the Nationals, but the other four starts have been disasters.
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With his recent string of bad outings can you continue to trust him? If last year is any indication then the answer is “yes”.
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Chacin’s 2010 season is eerily similar to last year. From April through June Chacin was cruising. He was 4-7, but had a solid 3.51 ERA. Then Chacin fell apart in July going 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA. Jhoulys then gathered himself to finish strong going 4-3 in August and September with a brilliant 2.13 ERA.
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One of Chacin’s main problems has been his control. His month walks/inning ratio has increase each month from 2.38 in April to 3.92 in May to 4.83 in June and now 5.87 ERA. It’s hard to be successful when you are issuing that many free passes.
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One sabermetric that could work against him is his BABIP. Even during his terrible July his monthly mark is .234, which actually increased his yearly mark to a still impressive .227. Considering he was .283 for Triple-A Colorado Spring and .285 for the Rockies, one would think that his luck would run out, which could lead to a rise in his peripheral numbers.
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His next start comes against the Dodgers. He’s facing Clayton Kershaw so a win in not a strong possibility, but he could return to form. I’m not quite willing to write him off, but I would certainly hesitate to you him against a potent offense until he proves otherwise.
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Also check out:

• Is Cameron Maybin Getting It?
• Week 17 Two-Start Pitchers
• Can Mat Latos Dominate Again This Year?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Run Scorers Vol. 7
• Is Cory Luebke For Real?

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Ubaldo Jimenez was placed on the 15-day disable list because of a cut on his thumb. He should be available on April 17th. Jimenez got off to a rough starting allowing five earned runs in six innings. Ubaldo got off to that incredible start last year, but historically April hasn’t been his strongest month. His April ERA is 4.38, which is the highest monthly ERA. The rest of the season he has a lifetime ERA of 3.44. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

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Dexter Fowler had a decent April that saw him hit .256 with 12 runs and four stolen bases in 82 at bats. He hit the skids in May batting .158 with six runs and two stolen bases in 57 at bats. After going hitless in eight June at bats he was optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs.
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It was there that he regained his confidence…and his stroke. He hit .340 in 27 games for the Sky Sox, scoring 23 runs in 27 games. When he returned to the Rockies, he brought his minor league success with him.
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Fowler hit .287 (25 for 87) in July for the Rockies with 21 runs. He went on to hit .275 in both June (25 for 91) and July (28 for 102) and .500 (6 for 12) in October. That’s an average of .288 (84 for 292) with 54 runs from July through October.
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While his overall HR (6) and RBI (36) numbers are far from impressive, he had five HRs and 32 RBI in those summer months. While I don’t expect him to turn into power hitter, he could hit around 8-10 next year if he can maintain that swing.
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That’s not why you’re drafting him though. You’re looking for runs and stolen bases. He has scored 73 runs in each of the past two seasons in just 433 and 439 at bats respectively.
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Perhaps the biggest disappointment was his regression from 27 to 13 stolen bases. If you take a chance on him, it won’t come at a high price. His average draft position, according to Mock Draft Central, is 236. That’s at the back end of the 20th round in 12-team leagues. It’s the perfect spot to take a player with 90 run and 30 stolen base potential.
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

ESPN is reporting that Colorado Rockies President Keli McGregor was found dead in his Salt Lake City hotel room. McGregor was just 48. Foul play is not suspected. McGregor leaves behind a wife and four kids. 

My thoughts and prayers are with the McGregor family and the Rockies organization. The sadness comes just days after Ubaldo Jimenez threw Colorado’s first no-hitter.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Ubaldo Jimenez has disproved the notion that the Colorado Rockies can’t have an ace pitcher. Instead of paying to bring in a big name free agent pitcher, they groomed one in Jimenez. He was solid in 2008 and saw across the board improvement in 2009.

2008: 12-12, 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .245 BAA, 172 K, 103 BB
2009: 15-12, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP .229 BAA, 198 K, 85 BB

The key to his success is his ability to produce ground balls. That’s almost a requirement in Coors Field. You keep the ball down, you keep it in the ballpark. He also did a good job of limiting free passes. He went from 4.67 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.51 in 2009. Couple that with an increase in K/9 from 7.8 to 8.2 and you can see why he was successful last year.

He was also very consistent last year.

Home: 102.3 IP, 8-5, 3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .234 BAA, 86 K, 40 BB
Away: 115.7 IP, 7-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .225 BAA, 112 K, 45 BB

And a force down the stretch.

First Half: 115.7 IP, 6-9, 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .247 BAA 101 K, 46 BB
Second Half: 102.3 IP, 9-3, 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .209 BAA, 97 K, 39 BB

We know he’s Colorado’s ace, but can he be your fantasy ace as well? With numbers like that I think so. I can see him being ranked in the top 12 by season’s end. Personally I would prefer him as a #2 fantasy pitcher (see my SP rankings). If I miss out on Lincecum, Greinke, King Felix, Johan, C.C, Halladay, Haren, and Verlander, I wouldn’t mind having Ubaldo paired with Cliff Lee, Beckett, Wainwright, Kershaw, or Cole Hamels. That would allow me to address another positional need first, and then adding two big guns to my pitching staff.

What’s your take? Do you see Ubaldo as a #1 or a #2 in 2010?

Prediction:  17-12, 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP,  195 K

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore