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There were a couple of big name tight ends that found new homes this week. Sure they still have name recognition, but do they have value for the fantasy football owner?
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Dallas Clark had to learn about life after Peyton Manning last year. Now he put Indianapolis organization in his rearview mirror and joined forces with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Clark will turn 33 next month and has had his share of injuries, playing in just 17 games over the past two seasons.
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Clark only averaged 3.1 catches last year for 32.0 yards with a pair of touchdowns in 11 games. Given his age, declining skill set (i.e. drops and blocking deficiency), and injury history I wouldn’t count on Clark as a fantasy contributor. If he can show along the way that he still has something left in the tank, you can pick him off the waiver wire, but I wouldn’t target him in fantasy football drafts.
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Meanwhile Kellen Winslow is out in Tampa and has moved on to Seattle following their trade. Winslow is younger (29 in July) and is coming off a solid season (75 catches for 763 yards and two TDs).
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While Winslow seems to be forever banged up, he hasn’t missed a game in the past three years. He has never had more than five touchdowns in a season so his status as an elite tight end has never been achieved, but he has had at least 66 catches for 730 yards in each of the past three seasons and five of the past six.
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Winslow will have to share the load with Zach Miller in Seattle, a fact that diminishes the fantasy value of both player.
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In summary, while both moves made some noise due to the names of the players involved, neither figure to be draft worthy fantasy options.
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Also check out:

• 2012 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football DEF Rankings
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Running Backs
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Tight Ends
• 2012 NFL Draft First Round Skill Players: A Fantasy Perspective

The Texans were dealt a blow when rookie RB Ben Tate suffered a significant ankle injury in their preseason opener against Arizona. Tate was expected to part of a rotation with Arian Foster and Steve Slaton. Slaton didn’t do himself any favors as his fumbling issue surfaced during the game. Arian Foster, who was the favorite to start the season as their lead back, not only solidified that role, but improved his fantasy stock. As the unquestioned starting RB in a potent offense, Foster should be considered a low-end RB2.

In other news, Green Bay RB Ryan Grant left the Packers’ preseason game with an apparent concussion. While you shouldn’t worry about his Week 1 status, there is t he concern of future concussions. I’m not lowering my expectation for Grant, or his ranking, but I understand if you do.

Finally, don’t be alarmed if you don’t see Dallas Clark when the Colts open their preseason today. He is out with a minor leg injury. Its worth mentioning since he is one of the most highly ranked TEs in the game, but nothing to lose sleep over.

Dallas Clark is an absolute terror to opposing defenses. Last year he had 100 catches for 1106 yards and 10 TDs. Those are not just incredible numbers for a tight end, but incredible numbers for any position. I have him as my top rated fantasy TE, but where should he go in fantasy drafts?

Mock Draft Central has his ADP at 50, meaning he’d go with the second pick in the fifth round. ESPN has him at 54. As rankings roll out, I’m sure that 50 mark will be pretty standard. I’m wondering if he should go a couple of rounds earlier.

Clark was tied with teammate Reggie Wayne for fifth in the league in receptions, trailing only the injured Wes Welker, the Giants’ Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, and Brandon Marshall. In PPR leagues, that number has to be considered. Even in non-PPR leagues he was amazingly productive ranking 16th in receiving yardage and tied for 7th in receiving TDs. Only seven players had 1000+ receiving yards and 10+ TDs. Those players were Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Marshall, Wayne, and Clark.

There were only about 25-30 non-quarterbacks that scored more fantasy points than Clark  last year in non-PPR leagues, depending on your format of course. In PPR leagues, that number was even lower. There are probably about seven QBs that I would prefer over Clark (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Rivers, Brady, Romo, Schaub).

He has a rare combination of speed and size that makes him a difficult match-up for linebackers and safeties alike. He runs crisp routes and has the full confidence of one of the best QBs in the game. With Reggie Wayne tormenting defenses on the outside, Clark has a field day.

With his ability and the system he operates in, I can easily see him going somewhere around the 35-40 spot making him a late third or early fourth round pick.

2010 Prediction:  90 catches, 1000 yards, 10 TDs

Agree? Disagree? I’d love to hear your thoughts on how you value Dallas Clark.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Here we are. The fantasy football mother lode. The Colts have an offense that is nearly impossible to slow down. Their biggest concern is they are too good and shut it down early.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They take on the Titans on the road, the Jags at home, and the Raiders on the road. Though the week 16 match-up with Oakland appears favorable, you can’t count on the Colts’ starters to play the whole game.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Peyton Manning – Manning is consistently one of the top fantasy QBs. Everybody knows that.

Reggie Wayne – Though he has to share with the Colts’ plethora of other options, he still managed to average 1249 yards and 8.7 TDs over the past six years.

Dallas Clark – He’s so big and fast that it’s not fair he’s an excellent route runner with soft hands. He had 100 catches for 1106 yards and 10 TDs last year.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Joseph Addai – Everybody was ready to write him off because of Donald Brown’s arrival, but all Addai did was pick up 1164 total yards (828 rushing) and 13 TDs (10 rushing). He’s only 27 years old.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donald Brown – Brown has big play ability and the Colts would like to give him a larger role in the offense assuming he can stay healthy. The Colts have the ability to have two fantasy relevant RBs at the same time.

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie – I like Garcon more than Collie (or Anthony Gonzalez). He took his game to a new level in last year’s playoff fun. Don’t think Manning didn’t notice. Collie has to have the upper hand for the slot position thanks to Gonzalez’s injury.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Anthony Gonzalez – After last year I am putting Gonzalez on “double secret probation”. A ton of fantasy owners got burned not so much by his injury, but by the fact that they wasted a roster spot for him for so long in anticipation of his return.

Colts Defense/Special Teams – The Colts face the Texans twice, the Titans twice, the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Patriots, Chargers, and Cowboys. Their easiest match-up is against the Raiders when they could be resting starters like Dwight Freeney in Week 16.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

In the battle to see who will fill Anthony Gonzalez’s shoes for the Colts, Round 1 went to Pierre Garcon, who caught a 48-yard game-winning TD from Peyton Manning with 3:18 remaining.  Though Garco trumped Austin Collie 10.8 to 0.4, they both had just one reception.

This was not a typical game for the Colts as they were thoroughly dominated in time of possession by a 3:1 ratio.  It’s hard to get a good read on a situation when you only run 35 plays.

Garcon did earn Peyton’s trust by delivering in the clutch so he shouldn’t be afraid to call his number next week against Arizona.  Unfortunately with a limited workload it’s hard to endorse using Garcon next week.

Though Garcon outperformed Collie, the real winner in the Colts offense was Dallas Clark, who scored on a 80-yard TD in Indy’s first play en route to a seven catch, 183 yard performance.  Reggie Wayne was a letdown with just 3 catches for 37 yards.

I’m interested to see whether or not T.O.’s departure will hinder Jason Witten’s production.  Love him or loathe him, T.O. did make life easier for Witten when he wasn’t making his buddy Tony Romo nuts.  Despite turning in a solid season with 81 catches for 952 yards 4 TDs, Witten’s numbers were way off his outstanding 96-1145-7 2007 performance.  Of course Tony Romo missed Weeks 7-9 where Witten had just 7 catches for 52 yards.  The Cowboys at least brought in Jon Kitna to be Romo’s backup, which is a major upgrade over Brad Johnson.  With a healthy and happy Romo, who not only got rid of the T.O. headache, but the Jessica one as well, and a good insurance policy, I see Jason Witten as the top Tight End again in 2009.  He’ll likely go in the 4th round of fantasy drafts, and should be the first one off the board.  As Romo’s most reliable weapon I expect Witten to catch 100 passes for 1150 yards and 8 TDs. 

Considering the season Philip Rivers had, it’s amazing that Antonio Gates had “just” 60 catches for 704 yards and 8 TDs.  While they are impressive numbers for a TE, they are far below the 79-993-10 he averaged the previous four years.  He battled through foot and ankle injuries that took away his leaping ability, which is one of Gates’ best assets.  Gates committed to working harder on his conditioning in the offseason and is in great shape.  With his explosiveness back, Gates can make a run at reclaiming his title of best fantasy TE.  Gates will be anywhere from the 2nd to 4th TE selected in fantasy drafts, most likely in the late fourth/early fifth round.  He should be good for 80 catches for 1000 yards and 10 TDs.

Tony Gonzalez made the move from Kansas City to Atlanta.  While he goes to an offense with more weapons (Roddy White, Michael Turner, Michael Jenkins, Jerious Norwood), he also goes to a team with a much better QB.  Matt Ryan had a solid Rookie season, and with the addition of Gonzo, he should take the next step towards fantasy greatness.  Atlanta will run more than KC did so I look for his numbers to drop a little.  I know he played for KC when they ran a lot an still produced, but he was younger and that was a better offense.  I still expect Gonzo to be a top three TE so it’s not like I don’t value him.  He’s going in the 5th Round of fantasy drafts.  I’m putting him on a 70 catch, 900 yard, 7 TD season.

Dallas Clark is the low end of the elite TE, but there is a drop off after he goes off the board (likely in the late 5th/early 6th round).  Clark put together another solid season with 77 catches for 848 yards and 6 TDs, showing the 58-616-11 he put up in 2007 wasn’t a fluke.  With Marvin Harrison gone, Clark should consider to be one of Peyton Manning’s primary targets.  I actually expect him to take a little step back this year simply because he was so productive last year.  I’m looking for him to have 65 catches for 850 yards, and 7 TDs.

#1  Antonio Gates

#3  Jason Witten
T.O.’s departure could actually hurt Witten a bit.  No, not emotionally, but T.O. did draw the opposing Defenses’ attention.  With T.O. gone Defenses will be able to key in on Witten more. He’s still going to produce, but I think his numbers will look more like last year than 2007.

#6  Owen Daniels
Owen finished as the sixth highest scoring Tight End despite having just two TDs.  He hasn’t exactly shown the ability to reach paydirt consistently yet, but I could see him improve in that area in 2009.  If he can score five or six TDs and maintain the 800 yard average he has the past two years, he could possibly crack the top five.

#8  Zach Miller
Zach nearly doubled his yardage last year going from 444 as a rookie to 778 in his second year.  He only scored one TD last year, which was down from three in his rookie season.  As he and JaMarcus Russell continue to build their rapport, I see that TD number going up next year.  800 yards and 4 or 5 TDs isn’t out of the question.

#9 Greg Olsen
Greg was one of the Bears’ top targets in the passing game.  He should be utilized even more next year as he continues to develop into one of the game’s best pass-catching Tight Ends.  I see him leading the Bears in receptions next year.  He should rack up at least 700 yards and four scores.

#10 Dustin Keller
With Kellen Clemens likely taking over the starting Quarterback job, Dustin Keller is going to be a big security blanket.  He caught 48 passes for 535 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie.  He had 388 yards in the second half last year.  He should build upon that success in his second year.