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Darren McFadden was great last year. After combining for 856 rushing yard (1386 total yards) and five touchdowns in his first two disappointing years, he responded with a breakout season that saw him run for 1157 yards (1664 total yards) and ten touchdowns (seven rushing, three receiving). When somebody blows up like that you wonder if they can repeat their performance. Could it just have been a fluke? In Darren McFadden’s case though, you wonder if he could be even better.
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For the third straight season Run DMC missed three games (four in 2009).  If he could stay healthy and play in at least 15 games, a 2000 yard total season is well within reach.
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He certainly showed the explosiveness that we expected after he averaged 1738.5 yards and 15 touchdowns in his final two years at Arkansas. McFadden was tied for sixth with a 5.2 yards per carry average. He was tied for third among players with at least 200 carries. He also led all ball carriers with 14 runs of at least 20 yards.
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The Raiders are expected to retain Michael Bush, which at first glance is a negative. That said, the 6’1″, 245 pound Bush can share the workload to keep McFadden fresh and take some of the tough carries to minimize DMC’s injury risk.  With McFadden’s big play ability, losing some carries at the stripe doesn’t sting as bad.
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Another bonus that isn’t  an obvious benefit to McFadden is the stability that Jason Campbell brought to the Raiders. He didn’t put up monster numbers, but he was effective. Campbell is locked in as the starting quarterback, which should help him focus on improving his game. He’s in a contract year, which provides further incentive. Don’t expect a 4000 yard season out of Campbell, but he’s good enough to keep defenses honest and keep them from stuffing the box on McFadden.
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As long as he can stay healthy I believe McFadden can be a top five to seven fantasy back. What’s your take?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

No, I don’t expect Darren McFadden to put on a bunch of weight and start sippin’ sizzurp. He is, however, starting to enter Bust Territory. In two seasons McFadden has ran for a mere 856 yards with five rushing TDs. He has salvaged some of his reputation by adding 530 receiving yards, but 1386 total yards should be a single-season output for a guy that ran for 4590 yards (nearly 5000 total yards) with 41 TDs (plus 2 receiving and 7 passing) and became the fourth pick of the 2008 draft.

McFadden missed his second straight preseason game because of a hamstring injury, which is troubling for a guy that has missed seven games in his first two seasons. Not only is he missing the games, but he’s missing practice, which could cement Michael Bush as the Raiders’ primary ball carrier.

Bush was the better runner last year averaging 4.8 yards on 123 carries compared to McFadden’s 3.4 average on 104 carries. McFadden is better at catching the ball out of the backfield, but if he’s not careful, he could find himself relegated to third-down duty. Bush’s size (6’1″, 245 lbs) already makes him a better fit for the tough carries near the goal line. Rock Cartwright could also get some of those carries.

Despite the lofty expectations everybody have for McFadden, he has only topped 74 rushing yards once in his career, and that came in Week 2 of his rookie season. Only twice in his career has he had more than 14 carries. It’s like they don’t even know how to use him.

For some reason McFadden has yet to attempt a pass in the NFL. Correct me if I’m wrong, but he was running the WildHog formation in college, so why not play to his strengths? Makes no sense to me, especially when your starting QB’s passer rating and completion percentage were hovering around 50.

I would love to see McFadden get his act together, but my optimism is wearing thin. That sentiment isn’t shared with fellow fantasy footballers though, as his ADP is 78 (32nd RB). It’s actually a few spots higher than Michael Bush (83, 34). I’m sorry, but the sixth pick of the seventh round needs to offer a little more certainty for my tastes.

Currently I have McFadden as my 43rd ranked RB (click to see my rankings), but that number will go even lower if he doesn’t get his act together. Plus people will start using air quotes when they call him “Run” DMC.

What are your thoughts on Darren McFadden?

The Raiders offer little for fantasy owners, but at least they got rid of JaMarcus Russell. They don’t have many weapons on offense, but Jason Campbell is a clear upgrade.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
The Raiders take on the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 14 and then the Broncos and Colts at home. Zach Miller is probably the only guy you can count on in the fantasy playoffs.

Five Star Fantasy Options
None

Four Star Fantasy Options
None

Three Star Fantasy Options
Zach Miller – Miller caught 66 passes for 805 yards and 3 TDs. Campbell displayed the ability to get the ball to the TE in Washington, and with Miller as his best option, expect Miller to put up good numbers.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Jason Campbell – It’s not that I dislike Campbell, but Al Davis has left the cupboard pretty bare as far as options in the receiving game go. He’s a low-end fantasy backup at best. At least he’s not negative stars like his predecessor.

Darren McFadden – Fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Even after two uninspiring seasons, I’m willing to give McFadden another shot at redemption. The backfield isn’t as crowded with Justin Fargas out of the picture. Plus, having a competent QB helps. I wouldn’t count on Run DMC as a starter, but he’s a low risk, high reward depth option at this point.

Michael Bush – Bush is a tougher runner than McFadden, which could be more what Tom Cable is looking for. This is likely to be a true RBBC, which means both RBs will suffer.

Chaz Schilens – Schilens is probably a 1.75 fantasy star, but we’ll round up. He has good size (6’4″) and great speed. If he can prove that he’s healthy he can sneak up on some people. Consistency could be an issue.

Raiders Defense/Special Teams – The Raiders were improved on defense last year, and actually pretty tough against the pass. They don’t force many turnovers, but they do get a decent amount of sacks.

One Star Fantasy Options
Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy – Heyward-Bey is fast, but so is Usain Bolt. That doesn’t mean I would want him on my fantasy team. Murphy showed some signs last year, but they were mostly few and far between. Of the two I would go with Murphy every time.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

I like Darren McFadden.  I really do.  If he was selected by any other team in the league he’d have a much better career path by now.  Now’s he out for 2-4 weeks with torn meniscus in his knee.

Even when he returns things aren’t going to get better until someone other than JaMarcus Russell is under Center.  He just isn’t equipped at the time to be a starting QB on any team, let alone a dysfunctional one like the Raiders.  Unfortunately they cut the QB that gave them the best chance to win — Jeff Garcia.  With a strong defense and a seemingly mediocre division they would have been better off trying to grind out some Wins with Garcia.

The Raiders do not have one player you can count on for fantasy football production.  Even Zach Miller, who managed to have a great year despite Russell’s ineptness last season, can’t be counted on.  Even with Run DMC out a couple of weeks, you can’t count on Michael Bush to produce at the rate their offense is performing.

Quarterback
Matt Schaub - Schaub opens the season at home against the New York Jets, who look to have much improved defense under Rex Ryan.  The Jets are going to put a lot of pressure on the Texans.  Schaub is dealing with a sprained ankle, and with his injury history, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were knocked out of the game.

Running Backs
Chris Johnson - I know it’s tough to bench your #1 pick, but Johnson will have his work cut out for him facing the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers should be fired up to defend their title at home.  Johnson had a nice game against the Steelers at home last year (16 carries for 69 yards, TD), but playing in Pittsburgh is a different story.

Darren McFadden - Many are expecting Run DMC to make a big step forward in 2009.  While I agree with them, I don’t see it happening this week.  The Chargers’ defense was awful last year.  They want to make a statement to the NFL that they’re back.  The Chargers offense is so high-powered that the Raiders will likely being playing from behind, limiting the opportunities for McFadden to showcase his talents.  Finally, it’s not clear how the Raiders are going to split up their carries.  I’d look elsewhere for my RB2.

Wide Receiver
Dwayne Bowe - Kansas City is a mess.  Facing Baltimore is no way for Todd Haley to get off to a fast start.  Bowe will get plenty of Raven attention, and with either a injured Cassel or a backup QB under Center, I just don’t like Bowe’s prospects.

Braylon Edwards - Braylon is a guy that I expect to bounce back in 2009, but whoever wins the starting gig is going to be under heavy pressure.  If Edwards still has a problem holding on to the football, it could be a long game for the former Wolverine.

Now that we went through the majority of the #1 & #2 Running Backs, it’s time to look at RB3s.  These Backs are ones you would use in a flex position (if you have one in your league format), as bye week replacements, or spot starters based on matchups.  If you load up elsewhere early, they could serve as RB2.

Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay -  Ward ran for 1025 yards and 2 TDs on 182 carries for an amazing 5.6 yards per carry.  He added 41 receptions for 384 yards.  Not bad for a RB that didn’t even start for his team.  He left the incredible Offensive Line that the Giants provide him, but he should get more touches.  Don’t expect him to get too many carries though as Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams will likely be in the mix as well.  I can see Graham handing the red zone chances.  Ward’s best matchups appear to be against New Orleans in Weeks 11 & 16.  The rest of his schedule is pretty tough.  I expect Ward to produce 1200 total yards and 5 TDs.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice had decent production last year despite a limited role.  He had 454 yards on 107 carries (4.2 ypc) and added 273 yards on 33 receptions.  With Le’Ron McClain sliding over to Fullback, and McGahee moving to the backup role, Rice should get a much heavier workload in 2009.  Though McClain will get the ball at the strip and McGahee will get his touches, Rice should be a solid RB3, and even a nice RB2 in PPR leagues.  The Ravens have a some great matchups against Kansas City in Week 1, Cleveland in Weeks 3 & 10, Cincinnati in Weeks 5 & 9, Denver in Week 8.  Unfortunately they play the Raiders in Week 17.  Their fantasy playoff schedule starts off sweet with a game against Detroit.  Then they face the Bears and the Steelers.  If McGahee stays healthy, he’ll cut into Rice’s production, but I think he should be good for 1100 total yards, 4 TDs, and 55 receptions.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs – Larry Johnson reported to training camp lighter, hoping improved conditioning will lead to a more successful 2009 season.  Even more than his weight, though, has been his attitude.  He has stayed out of the headlines.  He’s not going to return to his old form, but he should be able to build upon the 847 yards on an impressive 4.5 ypc last year.  He only scored 5 TDs, but with Tony Gonzalez gone, that number could easily doubt next year.  Jamaal Charles will push him for time, especially on third downs, but that could help to keep LJ fresh.  LJ is a back who could put up first round numbers, which is sweet considering you can get him in the third or fourth round.  He loses a cushy matchup with Denver in Week 17, but still faces Oakland in Weeks 2 & 10 and Denver in Week 13.  He does have some tough matchups early against Baltimore in Week 1, Philly in Week 3, NYG in Week 4, Washington in Week 6, and Pittsburgh in Week 11.  He’s a good Buy Low candidate if he gets off to a slow start because his fantasy playoff matchups against Buffalo, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are sweet.  There is a huge variance in the numbers LJ could produce.  I think he has 1100 total yards and 8 TDs.

LenDale White – Tennessee Titans – LenDale retired the LenWhale moniker (at least temporarily) by putting down the tequila.  Even though he’s in better shape, I don’t see LenDale having anything close to the year he had last year.  Let’s face it, 15 TD seasons don’t come along very often.  With Albert Haynesworth residing in Washington, will Tennessee’s Defense be good enough to suffocate teams and allow LenDale to slowly wear them down in the fourth quarter?  That could be a big reason why LenDale gets much fewer than the 2000 carries he had last year.  The Titans don’t really have any cakewalks on their schedule until Week 14 against the Rams.  It’s hard to use a guy in the fantasy playoffs when you’re not sure how many touches he’s going to get in the game.  LenDale is nice to own, but he’ll be tough to use unless Chris Johnson goes down.  I’m guessing LenDale has about 600 total yards with 10 TDs.

Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders -  Run DMC had a pretty forgettable Rookie season thanks to a toe injury.  He had one monster week (164 yards. 1 TD vs. KC in Week 2) and one great week (10 carries for 38 yards, 2 TDs vs. Denver in Week 12).  He actually had more 50+ yard receiving games (3) than rushing (1).  Still, I believe he has too much talent to not have a much better Sophomore season.  He’ll be even more of an asset in PPR leagues, and I could see him throwing a couple passes this year to keep Defenses on their toes.  He has some good matchups this year against Kansas City in Weeks 2 & 10, Denver in Week 3 & 15, and Cincinnati in Week 11.  If you can get by the opening round of the fantasy playoffs against Washington, you’ll get the benefit of facing Denver and Cleveland in Weeks 15 & 16.  I’m predicting 1200 total yards and 8 TDs for McFadden.

Willie Parker – Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker will be pushed by Rashard Mendenhall this year, but I think he’ll hold him off for the most part, assuming he stays healthy.  I just wouldn’t count on him for anything more than a bye week alternative or spot matchup Back.  Those matchups are Weeks 3 & 10 against Cincinnati, Weeks 6 & 14 vs. Cleveland, Week 5 against Detroit, Week 9 against Denver, Week 11 against KC, and Week 13 against Oakland.  I’m guessing Fast Willie has 1000 total yards and 6 TDs.

Jamal Lewis – Cleveland  Browns – Jamal Lewis turns 30 this month and though he managed another 1000 yard season, he appears to be on the decline.  He is going to be challenged for carries by Jerome Harrison and possibly Rookie James Davis.  They both can provide a burst that Jamal just can’t muster.  Mangini will try to limit the workload early as Jamal recovers from ankle surgery, which would be unfortunate because they have three games against soft run D’s in the first four weeks.  Minnesota (assuming Pat & Kevin Williams are suspended) in Week 1, Denver in Week 2, and Cincinnati in Week 4.  Later they face Detroit and Cincy in Weeks 11 & 12.  The Bengals actually have a pretty sweet fantasy playoff schedule with tilts against KC and Oakland in Weeks 15 & 16, though the Browns could be playing for the future by then.  I expect 700 yards and 6 TDs from Jamal in 2009.

Cedric Benson – Cincinnati Bengals – Cedric Benson was a fantasy hero last year with two 150+ total yard games in Weeks 15 & 16.  He managed just 3.5 ypc for the year though and his plodding style may not work as well considering they face Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice.  They do have some pretty nice matchups though against Denver in Week 1, Cleveland in Weeks 4 & 12, Oakland in Week 11, and Detroit in Week 13.  His fantasy playoffs heroics will be hard to repeat against Minnesota and San Diego, but he could have a big finish in Week 16 against KC.  I’m predicting 900 total yards and 6 TDs for Benson.

Things sure have changed for the Raiders.  Instead of being the team that everyone loves to hate, they are the team that everyone loves to hate on.  They actually showed a little something at the end of the year winning their last last two games, including the game that eliminated Tampa Bay and sent Jon Gruden packing.  JaMarcus Russell played decent considering the lack of weapons.  Darren McFadden disappointed as a Rookie, but I expect him to make big strides in his second year.  Justin Fargas had a solid year, but I expect him to yield carries to Run DMC.  Michael Bush will likely be kept in the mix just because McFadden and Fargas are injury risks and his contract is minimal.  Besides a decent run game the Raiders have one of the best young Tight Ends in Zach Miller. Unfortunately for Miller, he doesn’t get much help.  Johnnie Lee Higgins is a solid return man and can stretch the field, but he’s not going to command a lot of attention.  Chaz Schilens showed some potential.  Javon Walker will l be back with the club because it will be difficult to release him because of the terms in his contract.  Ashlie Lelie won’t be back.  Ronald Curry probably has a 50/50 chance of being back.  After the Walker debacle don’t look for the Raiders to add a big time WR this offseason.  They have some free agents on their O-Line (C Jake Grove and G Cooper Carlisle).

On Defense the Raiders took care of one Cornerback spot by signing Chris Johnson to a multi-year deal.  They will likely slap the Franchise Tag on shutdown CB Nnamdi Asomugha.  Ricky Brown is a Restricted Free Agent and Rashad Baker is a Unresticted Free Agent, but I expect them both to come to terms with the Raiders.  There is a good chance S Michael Huff gets his walking papers.

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