LestersLegends.com » Denver Broncos


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By Mr. Destiny
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Tim Tebow has now won 4 out of his 5 starts despite a poor performance until the last 5 minutes of the game. He literally engineered and accounted for the bulk of a 95 yard drive. Tebow was sitting at a 6 point fantasy day before posting 92 yards total and the winning touchdown. I was patting myself on the back for advising to sit him this week, but 5 minutes was all it took to put a foot in mine and every other doubters mouth. Willis McGahee became an afterthought once he fumbled, ceding way for Lance Ball who took over for most of the game. I can’t imagine that was the primary reason for the benching, so it may be he tweaked the hamstring again. Every once of the Broncos receivers are still no trustworthy as anything but bench fodder, but it would have to be Decker if you absolutely had to start one.
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Shonn Greene exited this one early as well with a rib injury. He was back on the sidelines with his helmet on, but the solid performance of Joe McKnight allowed the Jets to keep him out as a precaution. Once again, it was Mark Sanchez which cost the Jets this game after throwing a pick six in the second half. McKnight’s fumble on the very next play during the kickoff did not cost the Jets, but it allowed the Broncos to hang around until the drama unfolded and Tebow took over. Plaxico Burress was the leading receiver as I projected, finishing with 64 yards on the day. Plax has been Sanchez’ go to guy and just as involved as Santonio Holmes. Given Sanchez’ struggles I actually like Plax more right now because of his red zone targets. Collectively both teams were 6-27 on third downs and each was facing an uphill battle in a game where defense ruled the day.
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Tim Tebow completed two passes last week. I know he won the game but that is just crazy. His own coach admits that he couldn’t run a traditional NFL option but for now the read-option is working. The Broncos take on the Jets tonight and fantasy owners need to decide if he should be in their lineups.
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Tebow has averaged an abysmal 121 passing yards in five games. Despite only completing 47 passes (9.4 per game) he has seven touchdown passes (1.4 per game). One of every 6.7 completions has gone for a score.
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He’s ran in two TDs this year. Typically a rushing TD accounts for 1.5 passing touchdowns. He’s also averaging 63.2 rushing yards per game. Typically rushing yards are worth twice as much as passing yards. If you transform his rushing numbers into passing numbers and add them to his current numbers he is in essence averaging 247.4 passing yards and 2.0 TD passes per game.
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The question is whether or not he can run on the Jets.
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The Jets have allowed 33 rushing yards this year but they haven’t faced a QB with the running ability of Tebow. Romo is mobile but he’s a pass first guy. They faced Brady twice, Joe Flacco, and Philip Rivers. They aren’t exactly going to take off an run. Jason Campbell and Ryan Fitzpatrick can move around in the pocket but they aren’t utilizing designed quarterback run plays.
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The Jets have been in the top ten in run defense the previous three seasons. This year, however, they rank 15th at 116.0 ypg. Although they haven’t allowed a quarterback to run for a touchdown, they have
allowed nine rushing scores. They allowed 11, 11, and 10 for the past three entire seasons.
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Darrelle Revis is a shutdown corner but when a team attempts eight passes (in a win) there isn’t much to shut down.
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The Jets also have time working against them. They played in the Sunday Night game against the Patriots. NFL teams take things one game at a time, and with a match-up against their biggest rival last week there is zero chance they let Tebow even sneak into their head a little.
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There isn’t a ton of film on the Broncos using the option offense and time is limited anyway. Plus, this is an offense that will continue to evolve.
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I don’t think this is an ideal situation to use Tebow but if this is a week that you’re playing without Big Ben, Drew Brees, or Matt Schaub (obviously more than just this week), Tebow is a risk/reward option. You likely could do worse.
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Eric Decker was one of last week’s surprising stars after catching five passes for 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns (25, 52). He also took a punt to the house in Week 1.
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Through the two games he is tied 15th among receivers with 166 yards. He is one of 15 receivers with at least two touchdown catches. He is one of nine players with at least three touchdowns on the year.
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This week could be different.
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For starters, Brandon Lloyd is expected to return. In the season opener he caught six passes for 89 yards. While Decker was the preferred option last week, that most likely won’t be the case this week.
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Tennessee ranks third in the league with just 172.0 passing yards allowed per game. They are one of three teams, along with Detroit and surprisingly Seattle, that have allowed just one passing touchdown (which went to a running back). They also rank tenth in the league with a 57.1 completion percentage allowed.
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Last week they throttled the Ravens at home, forcing two interceptions and holding Joe Flacco to 197 yards on 15 of 32 (46.9%) passing. Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans were non-factors catching a combined five passes (12 targets) for 91 yards.
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In the opener they held Mike Thomas and Jason Hill to a combined 108 yards. That’s an average of 49.8 yards per game for the number one and two receives they have faced this year.
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One thing working in Decker’s favor is the long plays they have allowed considering yardage total they’ve yielded. Thomas had a 26-yard grab, Hill a 18-yarder, Boldin a 20-yarder, and Evans a 32-yarder.
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I think he still has some value, especially in PPR leagues, but it would be hard to consider him a fantasy starter this week considering Lloyd’s return and his opponent.
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Rumors are circulating that Knowshon Moreno will be relegated to the Denver Broncos’ third down back once free agency hits. DeAngelo Williams, who has a long history with new Broncos coach John Fox, is rumored to taking over as Denver’s primary ball carrier. Whether it’s D-Will or not, the Broncos have made it clear that adding a running back is one of the top priorities of their condensed free agency period.
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Does that mean that Knowshon Moreno’s fantasy value is dead? Not quite. He’s just 24 so he remains a somewhat valuable commodity in keeper and dynasty leagues. Who the Broncos sign will determine how big of  a hit he takes.
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While he dealt with injuries last year, which led to a 168 rushing yard regression, his yards per carry increased from 3.8 to 4.3 and his yards per game increased by 0.7. He had just one fewer combined touchdown despite playing in three fewer games and having 56 fewer touches. Moreno caught nine more passes (37) than in 2009 for 159 more yards for a ridiculous 28.6 yards per catch.
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Plus, at 5’11″, 210 pounds he’s more than just a change-of-pace back, though his toughness has been questioned.
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One thing going for him is John Fox’s ability to effectively run a dual running back attack. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were both valuable fantasy options prior to last year. He has also been rewarded for sticking with a highly touted running back that underachieved for two years when D-Will exploded for 1515 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2008.
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Moreno’s current Mock Draft Central is 18, which is probably high considering the plan to add a running back and Tim Tebow’s ability to run the ball at the goal line. Right now I’d like him as a RB3 (especially in PPR leagues). That will dip to RB4 if a veteran like D-Will is signed to take the lead back role.
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Brandon Lloyd’s Mock Draft Central ADP puts him at 15. Yahoo! has him at 16. Those rankings are absurd considering he led the NFL with 1448 receiving  yards last year. Lloyd was also tied for fourth with 11 touchdowns. He was the highest scoring receiver in non-PPR leagues.
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There are reasons for the low rankings though. For starters, Lloyd averaged 338.6 receiving yards over his first seven seasons. His high mark prior to last year was just 733 yards. He had 15 touchdowns before last year, with a high of six. If it were his magical third year in the league, the skepticism would be minimal. But a player that breaks out at 29 has to raise a few questions.
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Especially a player that saw his pass-happy coach (Josh McDaniels) given the boot and run-first/defensive-minded John Fox taking over. One of the Broncos’ priorities will be adding a running back once free agency hits. If that runner is DeAngelo Williams, coupled with Knowshon Moreno and running quarterback Tim Tebow, the passing game is sure to take a back seat to the ground attack.
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Plus, Lloyd didn’t exactly finish the season strong averaging 68.6 yards in Denver’s last seven games last year after posting a 107.6 average through the first nine games.
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However, Lloyd did play well with Tim Tebow. He caught four passes for 79 yards and a score in Week 15 against the Raiders. He followed that up with five catches for 11 yards against the hapless Texans secondary. He finished the year off with five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers.
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That strong finish keeps him 25 though. I think he’s a decent WR2, but I won’t be willing to make him a top 15 fantasy wide receiver pick. Not with those question marks.
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What’s your take on Brandon Lloyd?
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