LestersLegends.com

Both Joseph Addai (shoulder) and Donald Brown (hamstring) missed practice again today, increasing the likelihood that both running backs will miss Monday’s rematch with Houston.
.
If they are unable to go, Mike Hart will make the start for the Colts. Hart had 11 carries in each of the past two games, running for 50 and 43 yards respectively. He had a TD in the Week 5 game against the Chiefs.
.
If you have alternative options, by all means use them on Sunday. It’s a real gamble waiting on a game-time decision on MNF. You’re better off playing it safe than taking the risk.
.
In one of my leagues I’m forced to take on that risk. It’s a PPR league so I’m receiver heavy. Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs are on bye. I have Joseph Addai and Mike Hart. At this point I’m rolling with Hart (along with Felix Jones) at RB. The alternatives aren’t very inspiring (Tolbert, MB3, Sproles).
.
If you have to take the risk (like me), Houston is middle of the road in run defense. Their yards allowed per game is 13th at 104.3, but that is in part because they have been torched through the air. They are allowing 4.2 yards per carry so whoever gets the nod should be able to find running lanes. They are tied for 25th in the league with six rushing TDs allowed.
.
.
Also check out:

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Many figured that Donald Brown would replace Joseph Addai at some point last year the way Addai replaced Dominic Rhodes many years ago. Brown’s injuries prevented that from even being an option. He set a season high with 14 carries in Week Three, but didn’t reach double-digits again until Week 16 when the Colts basically called it a season.

To say it was a disappointing season for Brown would be a major understatement. He was expected to cut into Joseph Addai’s production, and only managed 450 total yards (289 rushing) and 3 TDs. That’s not to say he can’t have a mulligan. In fact, I expect a much better 2010 from Donald Brown.

Addai had the lion’s share of the carries last year, but did it at a 3.8 ypc clip. With a 3.5 ypc in 2008, and a 4.1 ypc in 2007, Addai clearly isn’t a gamebreaker. Meanwhile Donald Brown has the ability to take on the distance at any time. Addai is also not a workhorse back. His high game last year was 79 rushing yards. He only topped 70 one other time., meaning Brown could see a lot more work in the ground game.

Where Addai has a clear edge is in pass protection and short yardage situations. While Brown has good enough size (5’10″, 210) to get the tough yards if needed, failing to pick up the blitz will keep Brown from topping 100 carries in 2010.

The Colts understand that you need at least two good backs to make a playoff run. They will want to ensure that Addai has space in the tank for the playoffs. I simply can’t imagine that Brown won’t get at least ten touches a game. If he does, he has the ability to serve as a decent flex start. If Addai were to miss any games with an injury, Brown could put up top 15 numbers. Addai suffered a concussion in the Colts’ third preseason game. He is expected to be ready for the season opener, but only time will tell. If he gets his bell rung during the season, Brown could step in and get a few spot starts.

Donald Brown is one of the best handcuffs and represents a good value with an ADP of 103 (41st overall RB) according to Mock Draft Central. I actually have him slightly higher (click to see my RB rankings). He has a ton of upside for a ninth round pick and makes a solid RB4.

What are your thoughts on Donald Brown?

Here we are. The fantasy football mother lode. The Colts have an offense that is nearly impossible to slow down. Their biggest concern is they are too good and shut it down early.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They take on the Titans on the road, the Jags at home, and the Raiders on the road. Though the week 16 match-up with Oakland appears favorable, you can’t count on the Colts’ starters to play the whole game.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Peyton Manning – Manning is consistently one of the top fantasy QBs. Everybody knows that.

Reggie Wayne – Though he has to share with the Colts’ plethora of other options, he still managed to average 1249 yards and 8.7 TDs over the past six years.

Dallas Clark – He’s so big and fast that it’s not fair he’s an excellent route runner with soft hands. He had 100 catches for 1106 yards and 10 TDs last year.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Joseph Addai – Everybody was ready to write him off because of Donald Brown’s arrival, but all Addai did was pick up 1164 total yards (828 rushing) and 13 TDs (10 rushing). He’s only 27 years old.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donald Brown – Brown has big play ability and the Colts would like to give him a larger role in the offense assuming he can stay healthy. The Colts have the ability to have two fantasy relevant RBs at the same time.

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie – I like Garcon more than Collie (or Anthony Gonzalez). He took his game to a new level in last year’s playoff fun. Don’t think Manning didn’t notice. Collie has to have the upper hand for the slot position thanks to Gonzalez’s injury.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Anthony Gonzalez – After last year I am putting Gonzalez on “double secret probation”. A ton of fantasy owners got burned not so much by his injury, but by the fact that they wasted a roster spot for him for so long in anticipation of his return.

Colts Defense/Special Teams – The Colts face the Texans twice, the Titans twice, the Giants, Eagles, Bengals, Patriots, Chargers, and Cowboys. Their easiest match-up is against the Raiders when they could be resting starters like Dwight Freeney in Week 16.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

I’ve been invited to participate in Fantasy Trader’s fantasy football roundtable.

This week’s topic:
“Second verse, same as the first…”  Who were you a year early with?  One of your undervalued players from 2009 that did not pan out, yet you remain high on.

Click here for the full article.

My response:
Joseph Addai outperformed my expectations in 2009 with 1164 total yards (828 rushing, 336 receiving) and 13 total TDs (10 rushing, 3 receiving). I expected him to have a solid year, but I thought Donald Brown would have emerged and taken away some of the production.

Brown battled injuries and finished with 450 total yards (281 rushing, 169 receiving) and 3 TDs (all rushing). He clearly wasn’t the favored back in the playoffs either.

That just means Brown should be a better value in this year’s fantasy drafts. The Colts spent a first round pick on Brown, and I expect his role to increase next year. He has a burst that Addai doesn’t have anymore, and if Addai got injured, Brown’s numbers could take off.

Some of the best breakout performers in football fantasy leagues are rookies, who we’re not quite sure what we are going to get from.  Let’s take a look at who my Top 5 rookie running backs will be for this season.

1. Knoshown Moreno – Denver Broncos
He was ranked #19 on my Top 25 running backs list (click here to view), so naturally he’s going to take the top spot on this list.  He was the first back off the board, taken #12 overall, and enters the season with little competition in the backfield.  Does anyone really think Correll Buckhalter or LaMont Jordan offer much of a threat to his carries at this point?

Despite Mike Shanahan no longer leading the way, the Broncos have long been a team capable of creating running backs seemingly from nothing.  Moreno should be the next in a long line of success stories as he develops into a must use option in all formats.

2. Chris Wells – Arizona Cardinals
The other rookie who found his way into my Top 25 (#22), he posted back-to-back 1,000+ yards, averaging 5.9 and 5.8 yards per carry.  That may be college, but it is still worth noting.

With Edgerrin James jettisoned during the off-season, his prime competition will be Tim Hightower (399 yards and 10 TD last season).  I would be surprised if they didn’t at least split carries, but Wells has significantly more upside and should ultimately see the bulk of the carries.  He may lose some TD potential by sharing time with Hightower (which is the major difference between himself and Moreno), but that’s something that can be said about many at this point in the NFL.

3. Donald Brown – Indianapolis Colts
Even with Joseph Addai, the Colts saw an opportunity to add talent to the backfield and quickly took it.  It’s tough to imagine drafting a running back in the first round not to give him significant carries, so you have to imagine the Brown is going to get a chance to shine.

While Addai struggled last season, playing in only 12 games and picking up 544 yards, he began his career with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons.  It’s hard to imagine him not getting an opportunity to play as well, which certainly will decrease Brown’s potential value.  That’s what keeps him a step behind the other two backs selected in the first round, he’s definitely in a situation to share carries.

4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles
Make no mistake, McCoy is going to be the back to provide a rest for Brian Westbrook, who we all know always tends to be battling an injury.  If Westbrook were to go down, opening up more playing time for McCoy, he could prove to have significant value for fantasy owners in all formats.  At this point, however, he’s not likely to be more of a bye week fill-in, as he doesn’t have the potential to put up huge numbers on a week-to-week basis.

5. Andre Brown – New York Giants
Last season the Giants employed a three running back set, with Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw.  With Ward now calling Tampa Bay home, the Giants needed a new back to join their three-headed monster.  In the fourth round out N.C. State, they may have found that man.

At 6′0″, 224 lbs., his stature is very similar to that of Ward and the Giants may lean on him to mimic his performance if they determine that Bradshaw is better suited as a third down back.  If that were to happen, Brown could see significant carries and really be a weapon in deeper fantasy formats.  Wait and see, but he’s a player worth keeping an eye on.

Honorable Mention: Shonn Greene, New York Jets

What do you think of these rookies?  Who will have the biggest performance?  Who’s likely to fall flat?