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Donald Driver is 36 so I’m not expecting him to put up a 1200+ yard season like he did from 2004-2006. I don’t even expect a 1000+ yard season like he did from 2007-2009. What I’m wondering is if Donald Driver will have any fantasy value in 2011.
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Driver dealt with a myriad of injuries last year, which is not uncommon for a player his age. He still managed to play in 15 games, but he was far less productive than we’ve come to expect of him. Driver caught just 51 passes for 565 yards and four touchdowns. Hardly the numbers you would expect from a receiver of his stature. They look more like the numbers of an average tight end. Things may not get better in 2011.
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For starters, Jermichael Finley is healthy. If he can avoid the injury bug look for Finley to put up some monster numbers. Also back to health is Ryan Grant, who could help lead to a more balanced attack. That’s good news for Aaron Rodgers staying healthy and the defense staying rested, but it doesn’t help a player like Driver that will be fighting to get targets.
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He would have stood a chance to have some fantasy relevance if James Jones did not return, but that wasn’t the case. Jones is back and will surely see more playing time than Driver. The same goes for Jordy Nelson who shined in the Super Bowl. Both of them will be cutting into Driver’s reps and looks. Finally, Greg Jennings is the Packers’ primary option.
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Driver may do the right things on and off the field. He could be a great mentor to the young wide receivers. Unfortunately fantasy football doesn’t reward that kind of play.
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Driver has a MockDraftCentral ADP of 64, which puts him as a low-end WR5 or high-end WR6. Only four slots ahead of Jordy and one ahead of Roy Williams. I say no thanks. Give me someone with some upside. What’s your take?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football DEF Rankings

Driver has been one of the most consistent WRs over the past 6 years averaging 1140.8 yards and 5.8 TDs per season. It’s nice to be able to plug in that kind of production without many worries.

Only this year, there are worries. For starters, Driver turned 36 in February. He takes good care of his body, but eventually Father Time catches up with you. Having both of his knees scoped earlier this year is evidence of that truth.

Age and injuries aren’t his only concerns though. He clearly is behind Greg Jennings in the pecking order, but it may not stop there. There is tight end Jermichael Finley, who outproduced Driver 34 receptions for 496 yards and 4 TDs to 21 catches for 269 yards and 1 TD over the past five regular season games and their playoff loss to Arizona. There is also the presence of James Jones, 26, who has been impressive in OTAs while Driver has been recovering from his surgeries.

Even if he does have a down year, why should you worry about it? You should because his ADP is 68 (26th WR) ahead of guys like Santonio Holmes and Wes Welker  (it’s how you finish, not how you start) and youngsters Mike Wallace, Robert Meachem, and Kenny Britt, who have considerably more upside. There are also QBs like Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, and Joe Flacco; RBs like Ricky Williams, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, and Clinton Portis; and TEs like Brent Celek, Owen Daniels, Visanthe Shianceo, Zach Miller, and Kellen Winslow, who on average are being selected after Driver. I would rather secure of legitmate QB/TE or add to my RB depth than gamble on an aging WR with question marks.

Prediction:  65 catches, 800 yards, 4 TDs

What kind of production do you expect out of Driver this year?

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The Packers enter the year as one of the most explosive fantasy units in the NFL. They have studs at QB, RB, WR, and TE. If you want a Packer on your team this year you’ll have to get ‘em early.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They should open the playoffs with a bang against the Lions even though it’s on the road. Things get tougher though as they travel to New England and come home to face the Giants. You’ll want to roll with Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley regardless of the match-up. You’ll have to make a decision on Ryan Grant and Donald Driver.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Aaron Rodgers – He’s my pick at the #1 2010 fantasy QB. He not only piles up passing numbers, but has rushing yards and TDs that put him over the top.  He has so many weapons to choose from.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Ryan Grant – Somewhat quietly ran for 1253 yards and 11 TDs last year. He added 25 catches for 197 yards. Grant scored six TDs in the last four weeks.

Greg Jennings – TDs were down (4), but he managed to catch 68 passes for 1113 yards. Not a bad year, but I’m certain he can do much better.

Jermichael Finley – Very athletic TE that is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare. He’s big and physical, but has the speed and athleticism making him a tough cover for secondaries and LBs alike. Finley had 55 catches for 676 yards and 5 scores and really made noise down the stretch averaging 67.4 yards and 0.8 TDs in his last five games. He really stepped it up in the playoffs grabbing six passes for 159 yards.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donald Driver – Despite finishing slow Driver had 70 catches for 1061 yards and 6 TDs last year. He’s 35 and had surgery on both knees. Time will tell if that will help or hinder is 2010 production. I’d take him as a WR3, but would prefer him as a WR4 at this point.

Packers Defense/Special Teams – They play the Lions and Bears twice, which could account for 10 INTs or more. They also play the Bills. Unfortunately they face Minnesota twice, the Eagles, the Jets, the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Patriots, and the Giants.

Two Star Fantasy Options
James Jones –  He’ll need an injury to become a factor, as well as improved hands. He can be used as a spot starter in favorable match-ups. Last year against Detroit twice, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay he had 198 yards and 4 TDs. If Driver’s knee become an issue, his value will increase dramatically.

One Star Fantasy Options
Jordy Nelson – Nelson is even farther down the food chain, but does have good hands. If given the opportunity he can contribute. Until then, he should remain on the waivers.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Hines Ward is an ageless wonder.  After failing to record a 1000 yard season since 2004, the 33 year old caught 81 passes for 1043 yards and 7 TDs in his 11th season.  Not only did he go for 1000+ yards, he played a full season for the first time since 2004.  The question is will he continue to roll, or is this the time for the vet to begin to decline.  If you’re thinking he won’t be as motivated after winning another Super Bowl, you couldn’t be more far from the truth.  He is an absolute gamer that can probably tolerate as much pain as anybody in the league.  As long as he can stay off the shelf, he should have another solid year.  Ward is going in the seventh round of fantasy drafts.  He makes a decent WR3.  I’m expecting him to catch 80 passes for 950 yards and 5 TDs. 

Santana Moss is a guy I hate to own and I hate to play.  He is very inconsistent (seven games with fewer than 50 yards) and he tends to miss or be hampered in a couple of games a year.  His name helps him get selected a bit earlier than he should.  He’s going in the seventh round of fantasy drafts on average.  He’s only had two standout seasons (2006 & 2005) in his eight years.  He’ll finish will solid numbers, but you could get burned a couple of times if you start him.  I’d take him as a WR3, but I’d prefer to have him as a WR4.  He should be good for 70 catches, 950 yards, and 5 TDs.

Donald Driver is another one that continues to turn out solid seasons.  He had 74 catches for 1012 yards and 5 TDs.  It was his fifth consecutive 1000+ yard season.  He hasn’t been the top threat the past couple of years, but Greg Jennings emergence hasn’t left Driver without fantasy relevance.  Don’t expect the huge games from Driver.  He had just two 100+ yard games last year, but he had nine games with 60+ yards.  Aaron Rodgers had a great “rookie” year for the Packers, and he should be even better without the distractions that dominated their camp last year.  He should be a great value as he’s being taken in the 8th round of most fantasy drafts.  He should be able to catch 80 passes for 1000 yards and 6 TDs.

Images courtesy of Icons SMI

One thing I know for sure.  This offseason won’t be nearly as dramatic as last year’s for the Packers.  No worrying about who the QB is going to be.  No retirement and comebacks.  No media circus. 

The Offense is in good shape.  Rodgers looked solid for a debut QB.  Ryan Grant quietly ran for 1200 yards.  Brandon Jackson appeared to be a capable backup.  Greg Jennings hardly missed a beat without #4 and Driver had a solid campaign.  James Jones didn’t deliver as the #3 WR like many expected.  The Pack have enough young wides in place though, that I don’t see it being a key position to fill.  Donald Lee was decent at TE.  Even the backup QBs were addressed last year.

On Defense is where Green Bay needs to improve.  They took a major step back last year.  Injuries were part of the problem.  They have some key free agents on that side of the ball in Brady Popping, Mike Montgomery, Tramon Williams, and Atari Bigby.  Al Harris will turn 35 in December and Charles Woodson will turn 33 in October.  Clearly they will have to get  younger at Cornerback. They also need to give Aaron Kampman some help on the D Line.  Considering the QBs they faced in their division, it’s almost a crime that they only had 27 Sacks (25th in the league) last  year.

KFFL Free Agent Tracker:

I said few teams have had a more turbulent offseason than Miami.  Well, the Green Packers are the exception to that rule.  The face of the franchise retired to open the door to Aaron Rodgers, who has been waiting in the wings for a few years now.  Well, that was the least of the drama, as the Prodigal Son attempted to return to the team only to find out they changed the locks on him.  After a stalemate which included a candy-coated bribe, the drama played out with #4 moving on to the Big Apple.  Sorry to rehash that mess.

On to football.  Offensively there may not be a team with a wider differential of their expectations.  They have a ton of weapons on offense.  They have a stable of WRs in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Ruvell Martin.  They have a couple of solid backs in Ryan Grant, who was one of last year’s biggest surprises and second-year player Brandon Jackson.  They are solid at Tight End with Donald Lee.  Some why the hesitation to crown them one of the NFL’s best offenses.  Simple.  You don’t know what they are going to get from the QB position for the first time since the early nineties.  First, Rodgers is going to need to show he can deal with the pressure of replacing a legend.  Second, he needs to prove his body can hold up to the rigors of the NFL.  Finally, he’s got to show he has the talent to pull it off.    If he can deliver, the Packers shouldn’t miss much of a beat offensively.  If he can’t, however, it could be a long season in Titletown.

Defensively, the Packers have few worries.  They have a solid Defensive Line with Sackmasters Aaron Kampman & KGB.  They get strong play from their Secondary including stellar CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson and hard-hitting Safety Atari Bigby.  The crown jewel of the D though could be their linebackers A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett.

I expect the Packers to challenge for both the NFC North title as well as a Wild Card berth.  Ultimately I think they win nine games and come up short on both fronts.

Fantasy-wise the Packers have plenty to offer.  Aaron Rodgers is a possible starter in 12 team leagues, but more likely one of the top backups.  Ryan Grant is a Running Back that I mangaged to avoid, but he has the potential to be solid once again.  Brandon Jackson presents a nice sleeper pick that could be had in late rounds or in the waiver wire if Grant struggles.  At wideout Jennings and Driver are worthy of being #2-#4 WRs in most leagues.  James Jones is a nice sleeper pick.  At Tight End Donald Lee is a solid backup.  Mason Crosby is a possibility at Kicker and Green Bay Defense is a top end D.

Third Tier WRs
We’ve profiled the Big Dog WRs and Second Tier WRs, now it’s time to examine the next wave of wideouts.  Again, these will be #2 & #3 wideouts for most teams.

Santonio Holmes/Hines Ward – Has Santonio Holmes officially surpassed Hines Ward as the top dog?  Juding by last year’s stats (942 yards, 8 TDs to 732, 7) and it appears that way.  I’m not quite ready to write Hines Ward off, but Holmes will likely be the first Steeler WR drafted.  They will probably be picked fairly close together and produce very similar numbers.

Marvin Harrison – Last year was a wasted year for the former Syracuse Orangeman.  Then he showed some bad judgement in the offseason.  Was last year the beginning of the end for #88?  I don’t think so.  I think he keeps himself in good enough shape, has one of the games best QBs slinging it to him, and has great knowledge of his system that he’s in for a nice rebound.

Calvin Johnson – Here’s a guy I’m high on.  He has the size and speed to be an elite wideout.  He was decent enough (756 yards, 4 TDs) as he was adjusting to the NFL.  Now that he has a year behind him, I can see his career taking off.

Dwayne Bowe – Bowe had a nice rookie campaign last year, nearly hauling in 1000 yards.  I see him leaving that mark behind as well as tacking on a couple of TDs to his decent five-spot he produced last year.

Roddy White – Roddy had a sneaky 1200 yards last year.  On name recognition alone I wouldn’t put him in this tier, but his numbers talk.  He was one of the top wideouts from Week 12 on (minus the dud he dropped in Week 15) scoring in 4 games and topping 140 yards twice.

Chris Chambers – I think San Diego was a good fit for CC.  With a full training camp and preseason with the Bolts, I expect him to do even better.   He’s one of the WRs I’m targeting for ’08.

Lee Evans – If someone can just convince Evans that December year round (17 of his 29 career TDs have come in December), he’ll make the leap into Big Dog status.  He almost always starts off slow out of the gate so he’s a guy you may want to hold off on using during the beginning weeks of the season.  However, targeting him for a midseason trade may not be a bad idea.  I think he can return to the 1000 yard territory with 8 TDs.  Let’s just hope they don’t all come in December.

Jerricho Cotchery – He’s produced back-to-back 82 reception seasons for the Jets.  He topped the 1100 yard mark.  He just needs to prove he can be more a factor in the endzone.  His measly 2 TDs conjure up thoughts of past Jet Wideouts like Keyshawn Johnson.

Donald Driver – Driver slid under the Third Tier wall like Indiana Jones in Raiders of the Lost Ark.  He failed to reach 1200 yards for the first time since 2003 last year, but his 1048 weren’t bad.  What was bad was the 2 TDs he scored.  Greg Jennings was clearly Brett’s go-to-guy last year in the red zone.  With a new QB though, the steady Driver could be leaned on heavier than the explosive Jennings.

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