LestersLegends.com » Eli Manning


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Fantasy Loudmouth is sponsoring another fantasy football contest this week featuring two of the top quarterbacks this season.
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All you have to do is guess the combined passing yards for Tom Brady and Eli Manning in Week 9. Whoever comes the closest without going over takes home the prize.
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As always, be original. If somebody guessed a total you want, you’ll have to come up with another one. Just leave a comment with your best guess and be sure to check out Fantasy Loudmouth.
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The Giants are a hurting unit. They have been ravaged by injury this year, and their wide receiver corps is no exception.
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Hakeem Nicks is dealing with a knee injury. He’s able to play through it, but his four catches for 38 yards and a score on Monday illustrate that he’s not the same player that torched the Redskins for seven grabs and 122 yards in the opener.
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Domenik Hixon is out for the year after tearing his ACL. Had he not been injured he would be in line for extra looks against the Eagles this week.
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That’s because Mario Manningham will likely miss the game because of a concussion. Time is running out for Manningham to get cleared to play, and their Monday Night Football match-up is not doing them any favors.
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Without Manningham and Hixon the G-Men will need some people to step up.
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Enter Victor Cruz. Cruz dominated the preseason and will get a chance to show what he can do in real games. He got some action in on MNF catching two passes for 17 yards. One of his grabs went for a first down. Though he has a great deal of potential, he is not without his risks.
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Consistency has been an issue for Cruz, both in terms of his route running and hanging onto the football. Still, if you’re looking for a deep sleeper, Cruz could be your guy.
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Another option, primarily in PPR leagues is Brandon Stokley, who should be able to say he caught passes from Peyton and Eli after this week. He will work the slot, but at 35 his upside is very limited.
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Eli Manning under Center
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Eli Manning made some noise this summer by stating that he is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. While I am not going to defend his position, what do you want him to say?
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If he said he wasn’t a top quarterback he would probably be ripped even more for not being confident, because we all know without that trait you’ll be eaten alive in New York.
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I’m less worried about the words that are coming out of his mouth and more concerned about the passes coming out of his hand.
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Odd are good that Eli’s preseason has come to a close since there is no point risking injury right before the season kicks off. To say his preseason has been a struggle is a major understatement.
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Eli completed just 27 of his 55 passes (49.1 percent) for 314 yards. He threw two interceptions and failed to throw a touchdown in any of the Giants’ three games.Talk about a depressing start.
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After throwing 25 picks last year his fantasy owners and Giants fans alike would have liked to see a stronger start. Don’t get hung up on the INTs though because several of them came on deflections after the ball hit his receivers’ hands.
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It could be a tough adjustment for Eli as he adjusts to life after Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, but his early schedule is quite favorable.
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The Giants open at Washington and home against Seattle. They’ll get a test in Week 3 against Philly, but then get Arizona, Seattle, Buffalo, a bye, and Miami. On paper it looks like Eli will have every chance to get going early.
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If his struggles continue into the season I would start worrying about Eli, but until then I’ll consider him one of the top QB2s in the fantasy football.
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The NFC East has three established quarterbacks and one messy situation.
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Michael Vick is the number one fantasy quarterback in the division. He’s a bit of a risk in part because of injuries and in part because he’s never had a season like last year. He has the tools to succeed and the weapons around him to flourish, but we won’t know if he still has the drive to be a better quarterback. He’s easily a top tier QB1, but he has more risk than the likes of Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Manning. Kevin Kolb is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He could find himself traded, possibly to Arizona. He makes a decent QB2 if he’s a starter.
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Tony Romo put up big numbers when he is healthy. Dez Bryant is immature, but he gives Romo another quality weapon. He’s averaged 2699.5 yards and 1.9 touchdown passes per game over the past four years (51 games). His lack of playoff success keeps him from the Brady, Peyton, and Brees discussions, but he is possibly the best value among fantasy quarterbacks because of it.
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Eli Manning reached 4000 yards for the second straight season. Not bad for a team that historically likes to run the football. His career high of 31 touchdowns gives him an average of 29 over the past two years and 25 over the past six. He really formed a nice rapport with Hakeem Nicks and remains a solid QB1 if you want to address other needs or a high-end QB2.
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Then there is Washington. Donovan McNabb is as good as gone, which marks the second straight season he’s been sent packing. I don’t know if he’s a starting caliber quarterback anymore. Even if he finds a new gig, his fantasy days are most likely behind him. Rex Grossman could be brought back, but it appears John Beck could get a chance to show what he can do. This is a situation to avoid. Not only are the QB options mediocre at best, but they are running thin in the playmaker department.
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Image courtesy of Icon SMI

 

Hakeem Nicks had a solid rookie season for the Giants last year. He caught 47 passes for 790 yards (16.8 ypc) and 6 TDs. He had 411 yards after the catch, which is an impressive number given his relatively few receptions. He is big at 6’0″, 215 lbs with good speed, making him difficult to bring down. He should turn in another solid season, but are people drinking a little too much of the Giants’ Kool-Aid?

 

Nicks has an ADP of 53 (19th WR) according to Mock Draft Central. I have him as my 24th WR (click to see my WR rankings), but I wouldn’t be comfortable taking him quite so early. I prefer the likes of Dwyane Bowe, Percy Harvin, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Pierre Garcon, and others that have lower ADPs. If Nicks is on my team, it will be as a WR3. I don’t see that happening based on this scenario.

 

It’s not that I dislike him, but I am going to temper my expectations. I am predicting 65 catches for 950 yards and 6 TDs. Not bad numbers, but not numbers you expect out of the fifth pick of the fifth round in fantasy drafts either. Not unless they are coming from a tight end.


The problem is the Giants have a lot of options in the passing game. Steve Smith is the clear #1. Mario Manningham figures to see at least as many targets as Nicks. Kevin Boss and Ahmad Bradshaw, provided they can stay healthy, should also have decent roles in the passing attack.


I’m also expecting a more balanced attack this year. The Giants attempted 542 passes to just 443 running plays. I would expect fewer attempts from Manning and more carries from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Andre Brown, if he can recover from his Achilles injury, could formulate the three-head monster the Giants used with great success in 2008.


If the Giants are running more and passing less, it stands to reason the G-men WRs will suffer, especially considering how many quality options they have. Throw in his injury history from last year, and I just can’t trust him quite at 53.


What are your thoughts on Hakeem Nicks?

 

The G-Men had question marks at WR and turned out three that had solid seasons. The running game took a step back. I see the running game bouncing back at the expense of the air attack.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Difficult
First they have to travel to Minnesota in Week 14. They return home to face the Eagles. Then they travel to Green Bay in the fantasy championship.

Five Star Fantasy Options
None

Four Star Fantasy Options
Eli Manning – Manning had an impressive season throwing for 4021 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs, a 62.3 completion percentage, and 93.1 passer rating. All of those numbers, except for the INTs, were career bests. He is a decent starting fantasy QB, but as I said, I expect the Giants to utilize the rushing attack more.

Steve Smith – Smith came out of nowhere to deliver for the G-Men in a big way. He had 107 catches for 1220 yards and 7 TDs. I expect a step back from Smith, but he still should be a solid WR2.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Brandon Jacobs – His 835 yards and 5 TDs were a far cry from the 1089 yards and 15 TDs he had in 2008. He suffered through injuries last year, which have been a problem most of his career. If he can stay healthy he can approach double-digit TDs. I wouldn’t bank on 1000 yards for him though.

Ahmad Bradshaw – Bradshaw almost certainly will have more total yards than Jacobs. Health could be a concern for Bradshaw as well, but he is very talented.

Hakeem Nicks – Nicks had fewer catches (47) and yards (790) than Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, but he offers the most upside. He has big play ability. Consistency could be an issue.

Giants Defense/Special Teams – They had a myriad of injuries in the secondary, but should be improved in that department. They are always a good bet to pile up the sacks.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Mario Manningham – Manningham was second in receptions and yardage last year, but is likely to be the third receiver this year. There will be times that you want to use him, but he’s more of a depth option at this point.

Kevin Boss – Boss had 567 yard and 5 TDs last year, which is solid, but I don’t seem much room for improvement. He’s a high-end TE2, but I wouldn’t want him as my starter.

One Star Fantasy Options
Andre Brown – What will Brown do for you? He’s coming off a serious Achilles injury so you will have to see his progress before you consider him. He’s probably at least a  year away (if he ever makes it at this level).

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Eli Manning under Center
Image courtesy of Icon SMI

I like Eli more as a reality QB than a fantasy one.  Even with Derrick Wards’ departure, this is still a run-first team.  Without a clear #1 WR, it’s hard to consider Eli anything more than a backup fantasy QB, especially considering the swirling winds he often plays in at Giants Stadium.  The Giants have drafted plenty of WRs the past few years so it’s time for Steve Smith, Mario Manninghma, Sincorice Moss, and Rookie Hakeem Nicks to step up.  Domenik Hixon will likely be his most reliable WR.  Kevin Boss is a serviceable TE for Eli that can gain yards after the catch. 

Eli has some nice regular season matchups in Week 4 vs. Kansas City, Week 6,against New Orleans, Week 7 against Arizona, and Week 12 against Denver.  He has a tough fantasy playoff schedule at home against Philly, at Washington, and at home against Carolina.  He’d be a nice compliment to Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb, and Kurt Warner who have byes in Week 4, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning who have byes in Week 6, or Matt Hasselbeck who has a bye in Week 7.  I think you’ll see typical Eli numbers with 3300 yards and 21 TDs.


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