LestersLegends.com

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By Jordan Hall
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The world runs on flash and sizzle. Fantasy baseball has never been the exception to that rule. In a sport based on consistency and reliability, hype more often then sensibility, runs drafts.
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In my first expert draft experience, I went in looking to get the most bang for my buck with each selection. A deep league, 15 teams with two catcher spots, the Blog Wars rumble figured to test each of our limits and it didn’t disappoint. However, time after time, I found myself going for old reliable instead of glitz or glamour.
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Given the success of last year’s Lester’s Legends squad, I was given the last pick in the first round, which was accompanied by the turn.
As the first round progressed, pitchers dropped heavily. I was worried that I was going to be stuck with Verlander and Halladay as my best options but by the time I was up Hanley Ramirez and Ian Kinsler were left on the board.
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Despite the fact that Ramirez had an absolutely abysmal season last year, I am banking on a rejuvenation this year playing for Ozzie Guillen and with Jose Reyes. I expect the Marlins to have a potent offense this year, with Hanley right in the middle of it.
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I was able to get my first sleeper of the draft with Kinsler in the second round. Always a threat to get to 30-30, he is entering this year completely healthy for the first time in ages. The Rangers will be great and Kinsler could lead the AL in runs scored.
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My next breakout candidate, Jay Bruce got sniped from me at 27. I wasn’t happy but there was no chance of him falling to me at the bottom of the third. From there I got proven run producers Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz. I’m definitely buying the Rangers offense this year, can you tell?
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In rounds 5 and 8 I let myself get sucked in to the high upsides of Matt Moore and Jordan Zimmermann. I decided to let my pitching go a little bit after a run on pitching in the 4th round but when Matt Moore was sitting there I couldn’t help but to pounce. Moore very well may lead the league in strikeouts someday. While I have no delusions that this is the year, there is no reason he can’t deliver 16 wins and around 200 strikeouts. If he can do that for me, I will definitely be pleased.
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Zimmerman is one of my major sleepers this season. He’s overshadowed in DC by Strasburg and Bryce Harper but he very well may be the most valuable National. He’s got a big arm and can miss bats with ease.
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I snagged David Ortiz at 105. He’s not sexy but he’s almost a lock for 30 homers and 100 RBI’s. There aren’t a ton of players out there like that.
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By rounds 13 and 14 I was looking to fill my outfield with reliable, under the radar guys. At this point I’m looking not for guys who will help me win the league, but rather not lose it. To my good fortune Angel Pagan and Ryan Raburn were sitting there waiting for me. These are two guys I absolutely love. Pagan will be leading off for the Giants. He’s got great wheels, a decent average, and plus pop potential.
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Raburn on the other hand is my favorite pick of the draft. He’s a masher ready to explode, though I will most frequently use him at second base. He’s had a spring to remember and has teetered on the brink of a breakout for a couple years. With regular at-bats and the Tigers lineup around him, 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s aren’t out of the question.
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From this point, I really just started to target guys to fill specific needs on my team. Value more or less went out the window. I was able to get Jed Lowrie who I absolutely love this season. A much ballyhooed prospect coming up the system with Boston that never panned out, he’s been given new life in Houston. There will be no threat to his playing time and I really expect his power to develop.
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David Murphy fell to me with my next pick. With Hamilton manning center most days, I expect between 400 and 500 at bats for Murphy. He’s a bit of a stat sheet stuffer as he does a little bit of everything. He should provide double digit home runs and steals.
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At 315 I got the steal of the draft in Henderson Alvarez. While the experts think he has limited strikeout potential, I strongly disagree. He has great velocity, sitting around 94 and a sharp slider that breaks not only away from righties but down as well. Couple that with a plus change up and I think he will be missing plenty of bats. He will have to face the Yankees and the Sox plenty but he has the electric arm to keep the potent Jays lineup in the game. This guy is a stud.
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I was able to get Ty Wiggington for his versatility. He figures to start everyday at first for the Phillies until Ryan Howard gets back and is a proven run producer when he gets playing time. I grabbed Angel Pagan clone Andres Torres in hopes of replicating the magic from a couple years ago.
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At this point, everybody is a lottery ticket. Eduardo Nunez was my last starter taken. While he gets no love, Nunez is going to play a lot this year. Jeter and A-Rod will be taking plenty of siestas during the dog days of summer this season. When they are out, Nunez will be in and he will be running. I would be surprised if he didn’t give me 25 stolen bases.
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I decided to use two of my bench spots as holding spots for two potential breakout rookies. Trevor Bauer has the potential to take over the 5th starter spot in the desert at any moment. He has the best stuff in the organization, he just needs a chance. When he comes up he will dominate. It’s only a matter of time.
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Mike Trout was my other rookie choice. I love how multidimensional he is. If he comes up he could easily slide into my outfield equation.
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While my team garnered no applause or made anybody jealous, it has great potential. While having the most popular or sexy name on your team is fun, winning is even more fun.
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I will keep you posted on my progress and you can check out the entire story with this link to the league office http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice? leagueId=121660.
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Feel free to drop me a line with comments at www.twitter.com/lefthandsmoke23

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By Mitch Charette
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The fantasy baseball draft is almost upon us–and we all have countless questions. As a fantasy baseball manager, you know the names you don’t have to worry about–Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, and Joey Votto. I think you get the point.
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The ever growing question burning inside of us owners however–who should we draft and who should we avoid?
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I am going to dissect six players from each position–three you should have no worries about and three you should consider avoiding.
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As a reference I will be using Matthew Berry’s Top 250, RotoChamp’s ADP, and statistics from Yahoo®.
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Catchers
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Must Draft: Mike Napoli
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You Should Not Fear Drafting
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Carlos Santana (CLE): Carlos is definitely in the top tier of catchers. The only thing scaring fantasy baseball managers is his .239 AVG in 2011. With phenomenal power numbers last season–84 R, 27 HR, 79 RBI–you should expect his 2012 campaign to be even more powerful. I also expect his AVG will raise at least 25 points and he may give you a few stolen bases.
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Brian McCann (ATL): One word can be used to sum up McCann–reliable. Expect this career .286 hitter to produce a 70 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, and .290 AVG stat line.
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Buster Posey (SF): Buster Posey had his season cut short at 45 games due to a horrific home plate collision–but he is ready to be the heart of the Giants’ lineup once again. Compared to Joe Mauer–and possibly more powerful–this young fantasy stud will produce at a top tier level. Expect Buster to bat over .300 with 80 R, 20 HR, and 80 RBI.
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You Should Avoid Drafting
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Geovany Soto (CHC): With a lengthy injury history, Soto should scare you away. In three years he has averaged only 358 AB, and burdened fantasy owners with a .248 AVG. Stay away from the once promising Catcher.
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Kurt Suzuki (OAK): What worries me most about Suzuki is not is sub-par stats in 2011–54 R, 14 HR, 44 RBI and a .237 AVG–but the fact that the Oakland Athletics have gotten worse offensively. I would expect very similar numbers from Kurt in 2012, with the possibility of being even worse.
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J.P. Arencibia (TOR): Although his power numbers in 2011 were actually decent, with 23 HR and 78 RBI–his AVG was heinous at .219. I see J.P. as too much of a detriment to my team according to AVG to appreciate his power.
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First Base
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Must Draft: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez
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You Should Not Fear Drafting
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Prince Fielder (DET): Prince finds himself on a team with less speed, fewer offencive weapons, and is now located in an unfriendly park for left-handed hitters. With all that said–it’s still Prince Fielder. You may see his numbers drop ever so slightly, but should still expect 110 R, 35 HR, 110 RBI and an AVG of .295. No worries here.
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Eric Hosmer (KC): Hosmer may not have the gaudy power numbers like Prince Fielder–but he has tremendous upside. With his ADP of 52 in mind, he could be an absolute steal in the 4th to 5th round. Hosmer should produce solid numbers with 80 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI and an AVG hovering around .300.
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Michael Morse (WSH): Another player with huge upside and a very undervalued ADP at 82. Drafting Morse in the 6th or 7th round could be the best pick of the draft. With eligibility at OF and 1B–and producing numbers in 2012 to the tune of 90R, 35 HR, 90 RBI, .285 AVG–Morse is as good as they come in the middle of a draft.
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You Should Avoid Drafting
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Lance Berkman (STL): Last year Lance Berkman froze time. I do not see him producing like he did in 2011 with Pujols no longer protecting him. Age will catch up with Lance this season in what is a very strong and youthful field at 1B. I expect modest numbers close to 75 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI and .280 at the plate. Those numbers do not compensate for the possibility he falls off the radar this year.
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Kevin Youkilis (BOS): As a Bostonian–this pains me. The facts of the matter though, are too convincing–declining numbers, injury concerns, and the prescence of age in his game. Kevin will still be a solid player, but the injuries force me to say stay away from him. The numbers won’t be all that great either–70 R, 20 HR, 70 RBI and .275 batting.
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Freddie Freeman (ATL): Sorry Atlanta fans, I am not sold on this guy. I havent seen the numbers backing up his projections and the power isn’t all that great. He is compared to Eric Hosmer–but why? A stat line projection of 70 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI and .280 AVG doesn’t put him on my team at 1B.
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Second Base
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Must Draft: Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia
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You Should Not Fear Drafting
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Dan Uggla (ATL): The ugly part of Dan Uggla is his AVG of .233 in 2011. I expect it to be higher at .260 in 2012–and his power numbers are quite the commodity to have at second base. He should hit 35 HR with 90 RBI and 90 R in 2012. A second basemen with those power numbers is very difficult to
pass on.
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Ian Kinsler (TEX): A projected 2012 season of 105 R, 25 HR, 75 RBI and 25 SB is more than enough to find Kinsler a spot on your team. He has an injury risk attached to his name–but his upside is far too good. If it were not for the injuries every season–Kinsler could easily push Dustin and Robinson out of
the top dog slots.
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Brandon Phillips (CIN): Brandon Phillips is not as fast or powerful as he used to be–but he will not hurt you in any category. A 90 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI and 15 SB player that bats .285 is about as safe as they get. Also, he is a 2nd round talent that often gets pushed to the 4th. Look to steal him in your draft.
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You Should Avoid Drafting
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Chase Utley (PHI): Chase Utley used to be among the best in fantasy baseball–but his hip and knee issues appear to be forever lingering and hurt is value ten fold. When healthy, Chase can hit 20 HR and steal 15 bases to go along with 70 R and 70 RBI. His health is too much of a concern year in and year
out to deal with.
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Kelly Johnson (ARI): Ugly AVG, mediocre runs and RBIs leave Kelly in the dust. When playing good, he is amazing and hits a lot of home runs. The problem here–he never continues to play well. I expect a black hole of an average at .240 and not enough upside to upend that stat.
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Jemile Weeks (OAK): Jemile has potential to be a SB machine–possibly racking up 40. The issue for me is once again the Oakland Athletics. The lineup is so inept–I would stay away from any Athletic. Weeks will only produce 70R and 50 RBIs.
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Third Base
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Must Draft: none
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You Should Not Fear Drafting
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Evan Longoria (TB): Nagging injuries seem to be a concern–along with an off season foot surgery–but Evan is still most likely the best third basemen in baseball. Even during a bad 2011 season hitting just .244–Longoria still had 31 homers and 99 RBIs. If the injuries bother another drafter–shake his hand and reap the benefits of 40 HR and 110 RBIs.
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Adrian Beltre (TEX): Adrian Beltre his a remarkable hitter. A natural. He will most likely produce excellent numbers with .290 AVG, 30 HR, 80 R and 90 RBIs. If I were in the stock market, I’d be purchasing boat loads of this guy’s stock on a Texas powerhouse team.
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Ryan Zimmerman (WSH): I don’t think Zimmerman ever fully recovered from him abdominal injury last year. This year, I expect a big year from him. He may slip a little in the draft–which makes him even more appetizing. Look for a solid AVG at .290 with 85 R, 25 HR and 90 RBI.
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You Should Avoid Drafting
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Alex Rodriguez (NYY): Declining numbers across the board, age, and a much dimmer spotlight on him seem to be the ending trail of a once great superstar. A-Rod will still put up decent numbers in 2012 with 70 R, 20 HR, and 80 RBI–but those numbers are not worth where he will go in many drafts based off his name alone.
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Brett Lawrie (TOR): An up and coming talent and good numbers in 150 AB last season make him an attractive pick. I don’t think you can simply assume this will translate to 2012. I stay away from Brett solely based off the fact that he has not proven anything. If he is around late in the draft on the other hand–you may want to take him.
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Ryan Roberts (ARI): No way does Ryan Roberts produce the same power numbers he did in 2011. He has a horrific career .250 AVG–and will only record 65R, 15 HR, and 60 RBIs in 2012. I doubt he plays in every game–even when healthy–and the Arizona team does not help him offensively.
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Short Stop
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Must Draft: Troy Tulowitzki
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You Should Not Fear Drafting
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Jose Reyes (MIA): Jose Reyes will not get you more than 60 RBIs in 2012–but he will provide an AVG above .300, 100 R, and 40 SB. He did miss some time due to a hamstring injury in 2011, but this should not be much of a worry. Jose Reyes’ potential alone is enough to feel safe drafting him in a very weak SS position.
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Starlin Castro (CHC): The power numbers will not be what Cubs fans hope for–but an AVG hovering .300, 90R and 20 SB makes Castro a very good short stop. 10 HR won’t be such a bad thing to have either. I think his fans may be right about one thing–this kid can play.
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Elvis Andrus (TEX): Another speedy guy.He will get upwards of 40 SB and score 100 runs for the powerful Rangers offense. The batting AVG may suffer a little at .270–hardly worth considering not drafting him with this year’s selections at short stop. He will produce amongst the top.
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You Should Avoid Drafting
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Hanley Ramirez (MIA): Hanley Ramirez has all the talent in the world to be one of the best in the league. The problem is that he has shown he refuses to be. Two years in a row, fantasy owners have been disappointed by Hanley’s production–getting burned by their first pick. If it weren’t for short stop being a very weak position, Ramirez wouldn’t even be within the top 5. He still may not be. Last year’s injury and off season surgery should have anyone considering picking him very worried.
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Derek Jeter (NYY): Age is of the most concern here. He will still have a solid batting average around .280–but will only hit 10 HR with 55 RBIs. I consider the age a forgone reason for major regression and injury during 2012.
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Dee Gordon (LAD): A great base runner and run scorer–Dee Gordon–seriously lacks in the power department. Projecting only a couple home runs and less than 40 RBI–too many gaping holes in the stat sheet. If the AVG was something special, I may advise considering Dee–but he will be a .270 batter.
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Outfield
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Must Draft: Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury
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You Should Not Fear Drafting
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Ryan Braun (MIL): The only reason Ryan Braun is not on my must draft list is–well…what if he did dope? With the tiny miniscule chance he was on some type of illegal performance enhancer, you would see his production drop. Regardless of that fear, Braun should put up tremendous numbers. 100 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI and a .310 AVG is a dream for fantasy managers. You may see him steal as many as 20 bases too.
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Justin Upton (ARI): Read Ryan Braun’s stat line, and subtract 15 points from the batting average. Now you have Justin Upton. What I like about Upton is that he is just 24. He may very well end up the best fantasy baseball player–and may be taken at the beginning of the second round!
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Carlos Gonzalez (COL): Missing games due to injury really hurt Cargo’s stock. Had he not missed any games in the past two years–we’d be looking at possibly the first pick overall. I like everything about Carlos, and you will too when you see what he does for your fantasy team when you draft him–95 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, .295 AVG and 20 SB.
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You Should Avoid Drafting
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Curtis Granderson (NYY): This was a tough one. I personally think Granderson will continue to slug the heck out of the ball–but there is such a risk that he will not put up even close to his 2011 numbers. You will still be looking at 95 R, 30 HR, and 90 RBIs but the AVG will be around .250. Still very good power numbers, but he will not be worth the risk at as high as he will be drafted in most leagues. Don’t forget the chance that he may dissapear this year.
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Matt Holliday (STL): With injury problems and no more Pujols–Holliday will no longer be worth as high as most are going to pick him. So I say stay away. He will no longer steal bases but you should still see a 20 HR .300 AVG hitter in Holliday. With Pujols leaving, Holliday may not have the protection and his numbers will probably adjust accordingly.
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Desmond Jennings (TB): In 2011–with less than 250 AB–Jennings hit 10 homers and stole 20 bases. I do not think this is anywhere near his true power. Over the course of an entire season, I expect Jennings to hit 15 HR but seriously lack in the RBIs. He might have a chance at 40 SB–but I have not seen enough to convince me he is a worthy pick over other proven players.
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By Mitch Charette
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So you want to impress your friends this year by drafting the best team and owning the coveted bragging rights at the end if the season? You found the right article then. Throughout the years, as an avid fantasy manager, I have learned what it takes to draft not only a competitive team, but I have received first round byes four years running. I will not dazzle you with statistics and numbers, or recommend specific sleepers and warn you of busts. If you want to be spoon fed with exactly who to draft, then you shouldn’t expect to win. I will explain why later. What I will do though, is help with strategy.

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Like all fantasy sports, the key to building a successful team is within the draft. Baseball is by far the most complex fantasy sport. I will focus on a 12 team head-to-head league with the following categories up for grabs; AVG, HR, R, RBI, SB, W, SV, K, WHIP, and ERA. The exact number of teams in your league shouldn’t take any credibility from these guidelines, so let’s get started.

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Research: This should be common sense, but year in and year out there is always one or two managers showing up to my live drafts with nothing more than a fantasy baseball booklet bought at the news stand on the way. Don’t be that guy. If you don’t have time to properly draft a fantasy team, then you probably don’t belong trying to manage it. Take pride in your research, it will form the foundation of your team.

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First and foremost, know the players. When I say know the players, I am not talking about Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. I am talking about the lesser known, solid players. Being familiar with reliable players without the gaudy numbers gives you an advantage in the later rounds.

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Participate in mock drafts. Many of them. Completing one mock draft will not give you a true advantage point of where the public stands. Often, mock drafts are full of people simply passing time while bored. The more mock drafts you analyze, the better understanding you will have of when you can take chances or steal a player right out from under the rest of the league.

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Ignore hype. As you conduct your research, reading many articles and multiple rankings, you will find numbers of analysts touting relatively unknown players. Take all of this with a grain of salt. Personally, I tend to let someone else risk getting burned. Sure, sometimes these risks pay off and might make you look like a genius, but the majority of the time it is the consistent players with a history that bring your team to the playoffs.

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Draft Offense: Every draft you will see Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander going quick and early. Unless the rest of the draftees are clueless, I would be willing to bet the teams drafting pitchers within the first few rounds are struggling by the end of the season. It is very enticing to see these Cy Young winning pitchers on the available list, but remember one thing; they will only pitch every 4-5 days. They mean nothing if the rest of your staff is posting horrendous numbers. At minimum, your first three rounds should be devoted to sluggers. Look for AVG, HR, R, and RBI.

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To take this a step further, consider the positions in which you draft first. Every year, talent levels vary at different positions. Not paying attention to this could leave you with a gaping hole within your lineup. For example, you may consider drafting Tulowitski early, knowing that short stops with any substantial power numbers are very hard to come by. With the same strategy, remember that there are many more outfielders than specific infield positions. Just as important, you can sacrifice some stats for players that are eligible in multiple positions. This will help you ten fold when you catch the DL disease or find yourself lacking players during those pivotal “off” days.

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Draft players surrounded by other good players. A player may have all the talent in the world, but it does you no good if he doesn’t have anyone capable of scoring runs or racking up the RBIs around him.

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This is the reason you see multiple fantasy leaders from the same team. Stay away from teams like the Oakland Athletics.

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Last, but definitely not least when it comes to drafting offensive players, pay attention to every statistical category in your league’s scoring system. Complacent managers often find themselves drafting a team full of, for instance, home run hitters but fail to realize their team AVG will be amongst the lowest of the league.

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Pitching: This is what I concentrate on once the 5^th round comes along. After my first few years of managing a fantasy team, I was shocked to learn that three or four good pitchers produced just as well as one or two aces. As long as you pay attention to a few important things, you can get a much better bang for your buck per say by drafting pitchers in the middle rounds.

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Look at what teams these pitchers represent. Remember, the toughest category in most head-to-head leagues, when it comes to pitching, is wins. A second or third man in the rotation of a 90 win team could easily provide you with wins on a more regular basis than you think.

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Stay away from the injury risks! I cannot say this enough. Nothing is worse than losing a consistently good pitcher to the same injury he sustained last year. Stay away from pitchers like Clay Buchholz unless you are confident in the rest of your staff.

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I don’t feel the need to explain to you why you should look at K, ERA and WHIP. Every pitcher you select should be not much of a worry in at least two of these categories. Just remember to mix it up. You never want to leave yourself inept in one category. Do that, and you are down 0-1 before the week even begins.

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Relief Pitching: I cringe every second I am required to think about drafting for relief. It is, in my opinion, the hardest to draft correctly. Not because of complication, lack of depth on the draft board, or unfamiliarity, but rather because relief pitchers are often under harsh scrutiny and forever having their roles changed. One month you have the best closer in baseball in Sergio Santos, and next thing you know he is taking turns as set up man and cheerleader. Sorry, I just had flashbacks from last years Achilles heal of my team. The problem here is that one bad week for a relief pitcher, often means a demotion. Unless you have drafted the rock solid names like Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon, it might be inevitable you feel my pain. My advice? Draft three closers.

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The Late Rounds: After you fulfill your needs at pitching and stock up on a few more hitters during the middle rounds, there are only three words that should be going through your exhausted mind. Upside, upside, and upside. This is the fun part of the draft. Take your chance on Yoenis Cespedes (click here to read my take on him), the powerhouse looking Cuban player you saw all over ESPN. If people like him have already been drafted, good. You are probably already in position to rule this league and raise your arms in triumph over those dimwits who draft undeserving players early.

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Just as a visual aid, your draft should look somewhat similar to this:

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1-4: Sluggers at key positions.

5-9: Pitching. Don’t forget one or two decent closers here.

10-17: A mix of consistent hitters and pitching. To your discretion. Hopefully well researched.

18-20: Sleeper rounds.

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I hope this article is a start for you novice managers out there. And if you consider yourself an expert, I hope you can still take a point or two from this. Feel free to contact me at anytime for advice, discussion, or a good old fashioned intellectual debate.

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Twitter: twitter.com/mitchcharette

Email: mitch.charette@gmail.com

B/R Page: http://bleacherreport.com/users/844840-mitch-charette

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Looking for a possible power option late in your draft?  I’m sure that’s a situation many of us are going to find ourselves in.  I know from experience, sitting there at the tail end of my draft just trying to find a name who can provide some power after I didn’t quite get enough in the early rounds.  Well, here are 5 names that are likely to be had after the 18th round who have the potential to significantly help your team in power:

Travis Hafner – Cleveland Indians
He is just 2 seasons removed from a 42 HR campaign, and I find it extremely hard to believe that at 31-years old (he turns 32 in June), he has just completely lost that type of potential.  Problems with his shoulder led to his demise last season, limiting him to 198 AB with 5 HR and hitting .197.  This is a player with a career .284 average and was between 24-42 HR the previous four seasons.

We aren’t talking about a guy who’s going to hit .310 with 40 HR, 110 RBI and 100 R, like he once was.  Would you complain with a late round pick who goes .275 with 28 HR, 85 RBI and 85 R though?

If he’s healthy, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t be that type of player.  No one would project him out to that level, but the upside is there.  There’s that disclaimer to consider, which is why he should be nothing more then a late round flyer in all formats.  That way, if he fails, he doesn’t hurt your team in the least, but if he rebounds it is huge dividends for all.

Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
I know, given his numbers last season you have to wonder why you would even consider taking him.  We’re talking about a player who had just 11 HR last season and was so bad that he was demoted in June.  Still, 9 HR and a .305 average after the All-Star Break gives plenty of reason for optimism.  He’ll be 23 in April, which tells me that there is plenty of reason to believe the power is still developing.

At Single A in ‘05 he showed the potential, hitting 25 HR in 379 AB.  Even in Triple A in ‘07 (prior to being recalled), he hit 13 HR in 203 AB.  The power is there, he just needs to start hitting the ball in the air more.  In the major leagues, his career FB% is just 33.8%.  As he matures, I fully believe the power is going to come around, with 2009 likely to be the first time owners see his full potential.

I’m not saying he’s going to hit 30+ HR this season, that’s just too big a jump to predict.  I would think 20-25 as very realistic, however, making him a great pick at the end of your draft.

Matt Joyce – Tampa Bay Rays
After hitting 12 HR in 242 AB last season for the Tigers, there are people who are expecting him to fully breakout with regular playing time likely coming with the Rays.  At 24-years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), maybe that’ll be the case but I can’t say that I’m sold on it fully.  That’s not to say that I don’t think he has a chance to hit between 20-25 HR, because I do, but raising your expectations any higher then that would be a mistake.

At Double A in 2007, he had 465 AB and hit 17 HR.  Last season, his success came courtesy of a FB% of 47.5% and a HR/FB of 14.1%.  While I could believe him keeping up that type of HR/FB, a regression in the FB% is likely.  If he had enough AB’s to qualify, it would have placed him ninth in the league and that just isn’t going to happen over a full season.

Is he a good late round pick if you are in need of a bit of power from your OF?  Absolutely, but temper your expectations.  I would put his upside at around 25, not beyond that.

Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics
We all know the story of Jack Cust, don’t we?  He brings with him a tremendous amount of HR ability, but with it comes literally no batting average.  If you are looking for power and nothing else, however, who cares?

I know the HR/FB rate seems very unrealistic at 29.7%, but that was actually a decrease from his ‘07 season (31.7%).  Someone puts up a stat once, we call it an aberration but if he repeats it, we call it a trend.

I have to believe that he is what he’s shown us over the past 2 seasons, so 30 HR is a number that we can almost expect from him.  If you need average, I’d avoid him, otherwise he’s a good source of power at the end of your draft.

Adam LaRoche – Pittsburgh Pirates
Another player whose story is pretty well known; terrible in the first half, tremendous in the second.  Over the past 3 season, let’s take a look at his second half lines:

• 2006: .323, 19 HR, 48 RBI
• 2007: .312, 8 HR, 37 RBI
• 2008: .304, 14 HR, 42 RBI

Could this be the season where he finally puts things together for a full season?  It’s possible, and I would be willing to bet on it with one of my last picks in a draft.  I would be even more apt to do so if I’m making the pick of him as a reserve and I have a bench deep enough to stash him away and wait and see what happens.  Either way, he’s proven to be a player well worth using once the All-Star Game has come and gone, but if he could put it all together a 30 HR campaign is certainly in reach.

So, there are 5 good late game power options for you to consider.  Which one would you most like to own?  Is there someone I didn’t list you’re targeting?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 Draft Rules
written by: Delon Ferdinand

Spring training is under way, it’s time to roll up your sleeves and get down to the nitty gritty. Fantasy Baseball is upon us, which means you need help trying to decide a whole bunch of things. What round should I draft a pitcher? Should I spend high for a closer? Is Matt Holliday still a top 20 talent? All of these are great questions, but before you jump into the pool you need to know how to swim. So I’m here to offer you the top 5 fantasy draft rules for Baseball. For the sake of this article, we’re basing this on a standard Roto league with 5X5 scoring and 12 fantasy teams. We’ll dive into head to head and keepers on a later date. We also take our research based on the 2009 rankings from ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fox Sports and Sporting News.

1.  Stay far, far away from starting pitching in your first five rounds
Take it from me; I’ve been burned by this far too many times in my eleven-year history of fantasy baseball. However, starting pitching before round 5 creates headaches like you wouldn’t imagine. This includes 2009’s top studs like CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum and anyone else you might put up there. Stay away from these players if you want to build a successful fantasy team. It’s not that these guys aren’t good. Quite the opposite, but what you spend to get them is not worth it. Let’s look at the facts:

Let’s take a look at Johan Santana’s numbers against Ervin Santana’s. Based on all of the major rankings, Johan is being drafted in the first round, as early as pick seven and as late as pick ten. Ervin Santana is being drafted on avg. as high as the sixth round and as low as the seventh. Here are both of their numbers for last season:

Johan – 34 games, 16-7 record with a 2.62 ERA, 206 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP

Ervin – 32 games, 16-7 record, 3.49 ERA, 214 Ks, 1.12 WHIP

Stellar numbers for both of these guys, that’s for sure. Now let’s look at Johan’s last five years vs. Ervin’s last three years (he’s only been in the league for four seasons):

Johan – 33.6 games started, 17.2 wins and 7.8 losses, 2.82ERA, 237.8Ks and a 1.02WHIP

Ervin – 31 games started, 13 wins and 9.6 losses, 4.51ERA, 160Ks, 1.30WHIP

There is no question Johan is the better pitcher, that much is obvious. However, we’re talking about Johan giving you 2.6 more starts, 4.2 more wins with 2.2 more losses, 1.69 lower ERA, 77.8 more Ks and a 0.28 lower WHIP based on their averages. If you base it on their performance last season, Johan starts 2 more games, gives you an identical record, 0.82 lower ERA, 8 less Ks and a 0.03 higher WHIP. This is a difference between a Porsche and a Camry. Both get you from point A to point B. You can even listen to the radio the same way, but one will cost you 70K while the other will run you about 30K with fancy options. You have countless cases like this throughout the entire draft but you want to avoid the urge of taking a big name pitcher in the first five rounds. I’ll take big Teixeira in the 10 spot if he’s there over Johan and that brings us to our next point.

2.  Hitting, hitting and more hitting
Are you starting to get the theme of the article? I’m not against pitching; I just think there’s a certain place you take them. I cannot begin to stress how important it is to take an every day player vs. one who plays every five days. I believe most people know that already. The key is not to panic when you see other GM’s taking pitchers off the board. We’ve all been a part of the “pitcher run” on draft day when one GM sets it off by taking Johan, the next one takes Lincecum, then Sabathia goes and all of a sudden eight straight pitchers have been selected. You start thinking to yourself “I got to get a SP too, now is the time”. This would be the single biggest mistake you can make. Let the other GM’s take, you need to stick to the script. If someone wants to take Brandon Webb over Manny Ramirez, you need to be very glad they did. Don’t worry about which GM’s are getting who, you’ll get your starters and here’s why:

In baseball there are 30 teams. Each team starts 5 pitchers. That’s over 150 starting pitchers. Now for arguments sake, let’s say that only the first 3 starters for each team are the only ones worth starting on a fantasy team. That’s still 90 starting pitchers in the draft. In a 12-team league that means no matter when you start taking pitchers, every team in the league can have 7.5 really good starting pitchers. That’s more than enough to go around. Look at the Yankees first 3 starters, Sabathia, Burnett, and Wang. Looks good to me. Take Boston’s rotation of Dice-K, Beckett and Lester. All three will be drafted at some point. A small market team like the Royals brings Meche, Greinke and Bannister to the table. That’s not ideal but I’m willing to bet that all three find their way on someone’s fantasy team this season. Here’s a quick test:

34 games, 14-11 record, 3.98ERA, 183Ks, 1.32WHIP

25 games, 10-8record, 4.18ERA, 122ks, 1.35WHIP

One is Gil Meche and the other is John Maine. I’m sure a lot of you think the first is John Maine upon first glance. He was on the Mets, more wins, NL park, yadda, yadda, yadda. But the first one is Gil Meche. What’s the over/ under on Meche being drafted ahead of Maine this year? Point is, you’ll get your pitching. Don’t panic and get into draft day “runs” because everyone else is doing it.

3.  PUNT a category
No matter how hard you try, you will not get 10s in every category. It’s hard enough to get 7s and 8s all year. If Baseball were a one-month season then you would have no problems. Since it’s a six-month season, the odds of you maintaining a 10 you have in HRS after the first two months are low at best. You can’t draft everyone. You can’t be heavy on the hitting and expect to dominate the pitching numbers. That would take finding an abundant amount of gems in the later round, along with waiver wire gold during the season. Everyone has a category they will do badly in. So why not go into the draft punting a category to strengthen the others. The two categories to punt are SB and SAVES. You punt HR, then you can say goodbye to RBIs too since they go hand in hand. If you punt ERA, say goodbye to having a good WHIP. Stolen bases and saves stand on their own. So you can lose either category and you’re only losing in one area. However, it is not a good idea at all to punt SB. Here’s why:

Stolen bases are like fantasy gold. You hold on to it when you have it. Then when you need to make a deal, there’s always someone who needs it badly. It’s incredibly valuable and you only get it during the draft. Try finding a 40-50 SB guy on your wire. That’s not happening, because even if that guy is there, you got 11 other GMs licking their chops at him. Plus, chances are he probably hurts you in other areas like maybe having a .208 avg. or something like that. Looking at you Juan Pierre. Saves however can be found everywhere.

Let’s say after May your team is down by 40 SB already. Jose Reyes has 20 SB to start the season. He’s a lock to get another 40 the rest of the way. Sounds like the perfect trade target for your team right? Now ask yourself if you think the GM holding Reyes would give him up. Probably not! But even if he was available, do you know what you would have to give up to get him? It’s just not happening. That’s how valuable stolen bases are. PUNT the saves and focus on shoring up everything else. Which leads us to:

4.  Do not spend high for closers
This one is short and self-explanatory if you’ve been reading the whole article. But delve into it deeper and this is why you don’t spend high for closers:

You have 30 MLB teams and that means 30 closer jobs. In a 12-person league that means 2.5 closers for everyone. There are probably 10 teams with closer by committees, so for arguments sake, there’s 20 rock solid closers. That’s still close to 2 per team. But closers lose jobs like bankers on Wall Street. Every week there’s a guy on your wire picking up saves. Pitchers go down more frequently than hitters. Imagine spending a 5th round pick on Mariano Rivera only to watch him hit the DL (he is almost 40 years old). Then you see a savvy GM pick up his replacement and gobble up all those saves you expected Rivera to get. Obviously injury hurts everyone. But a hitter plays in 150 games a year if he’s healthy. He hits the DL and misses 15 games and you still have 135 games with him. He still has a chance for some multiple home run games to make up for what he lost. Same with RBIs, but you can’t have multiple save games. Two weeks for a closer is 5-6 saves lost. Yet you drafted Rivera primarily for the 40 saves you expect out of him. That’s 15% of his total gone. Spending a 5th through 9th rounder on a closer is the second biggest mistake you can make. Not to mention all of the laughter you hear from GM’s once you do it.

5.  Always draft the all around player

This one is tricky, but benefits you in the long run. Remember it’s a marathon not a race. It happens all the time during the draft. You’re midway through and you’re looking at your team. You realize “man I need more HRs”. So against better judgment, you go ahead and select Adam Dunn two rounds earlier than he should be going rather than Vernon Wells. You’ve fallen in love with the 40 dingers because you feel you “need it” after looking at your team. In theory it should work but in actuality you’re making your team worse. Here’s the line on both for 2008:

Wells – .300avg, 20Hrs, 78RBIs, 63Runs, 4SB

Dunn – .236, 40Hrs, 100RBIs, 79Runs, 2SB

Wells missed 54 games last season. Project his numbers over a full season and you have:

.283, 25Hrs, 100RBIs, 88Runs, 8 SB

Anyway you look at it, Dunn will get you about 10 more hrs, probably 20 more RBIs with nearly identical runs missed games or not. Yet his avg. absolutely kills you. It’s like working out your arms and neglecting your stomach. You’d have big pythons with a beer gut. For me, I’ll take the well-rounded body thank you very much. It’s the same thing for SB. You pass on Matt Holiday for Ichiro Suzuki. Even though that makes more sense because Suzuki really helps you in average and runs along with the stolen bags. He’s still a three-category player while Holliday is a four-category player.

Now you are ready to swim in the pool. You still need to have a good draft. You can’t use this strategy and then go out there and draft Carlos Lee with the 3rd overall pick and expect things to work out for you. You also have to work your waiver wire and make some trades along the way. Everyone has bad years and some players may be drafted in the first round but actually perform more like a 4th rounder. But if you follow these golden principles you should have a very good team ready to compete.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

It’s an interesting question as what you should do with your final round draft choice.  Do you take a rookie to stash away?  Do you take a player being pegged as a breakout candidate?  Do you take an injury risk sleeper?  Do you take a player who has completely fallen out of grace?

Obviously, this is only a relevant discussion if you are in a league where you draft reserves (which should be most leagues).  Otherwise, if you are drafting only players to use in your starting line-up, you obviously aren’t taking someone to stash away.  Instead, you are going to look for the player who best fits the position that is vacant.

Here is the last round of one of my drafts from prior to the 2008 season (3 OF’ers, no CI or MI):

1. Homer Bailey
2. Kevin Kouzmanoff
3. Mark Teahen
4. Kazuo Matsui
5. Chris Duncan
6. Troy Glaus
7. Greg Maddux
8. Stephen Drew
9. Mark Buehrle
10. Billy Butler
11. Jair Jurrjens
12. Melky Cabrera

The whole scope of possibilities was covered here as well as everything in between.  You had young players/rookies looked upon as good players to stash away (Bailey, Jurrjens).  You had breakout candidates (Kouzmanoff, Drew).  You had injury risk players (Glaus).  You had older stars who have fallen out of favor (Maddux).

The question is, which direction should you go?  Personally, I tend to lean towards the breakout potential player, unless I’m completely sold on a youngster that could be worth stashing or a veteran who is sitting there is just too good to pass up.  My pick in this draft was Kouzmanoff (boy, would I have rather been able to say it was Drew), and despite it not necessarily panning out perfectly, it is a pick I’d be willing to make again because it was my last pick and I was gambling on upside potential.  If the pick failed (and it pretty much did), what did it hurt?  The fact that I won the league tells you that it didn’t…at all.  If it had panned out, Kouzmanoff could have been my starting 3B.

This season, in the two expert mock drafts I’ve completed (though they don’t have benches) I’ve taken Aaron Hill and Mike Cameron.  Hill fits the mold of Kouzmanoff, while Cameron was a need pick more then anything.  Generally, I’d rather try to strike gold (like the person did with Drew in ‘08) as opposed to a veteran where you know what you’re going to get.  Hill is a player that I feel could produce as a starting 2B, so he’s a player that I’ll be targeting (and there will be an upcoming article discussing him as a sleeper coming soon).  He seems like a perfect end game play for upside potential.

What do you try to target in your drafts final round?

For more great fantasy info, check out Rotoprofessor.com.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Drafting high-level rookie prospects is one of the toughest decisions to make because there generally is so much uncertainty surrounding them.  Unless you are drafting deep into Spring Training, you never know for sure if they will break camp with the big league club, and if they don’t how long it will be until they arrive.  You also have the uncertainty of exactly how they will produce (will they be Ryan Braun or Alex Gordon?).

Last year the big two players people debated over were Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce.  I was involved in a draft where Longoria was taken in the sixteenth round (out of twenty-one rounds), while Bruce went undrafted.  Obviously, we all know that Longoria paid huge dividends to this owner (well, he would have if he had not grown inpatient and dropped him in mid-May, though his lose was my gain).

Obviously, gambling on rookies doesn’t work for all formats.  If you are in a league that has a very small bench (3 or less), you really don’t have the room to stash a player away, hoping that he gets recalled and makes an impact.  That makes this a non-issue and they should be left for the waiver wire unless you are 100% positive that they will break camp with the team.

Keeper leagues, on the other hand, it’s a no-brainer to take the risk.  When you have the option to get a player who could help you for not only this season, but future years as well, you have to roll the dice, especially in the later rounds.

It’s those yearly leagues where you have plenty of bench space available to you where you have to determine if it is worth taking the gamble and when.  Honestly, it’s a very low risk proposition, especially at the tail end of your draft once you have your starting line-up set in stone.  Taking a player like that to potentially hold onto makes tremendous sense to me.  He has the potential to perform as a starter and give your team a tremendous boost in the later rounds.

Once you decide to draft a rookie, the next question is how do you decide who?  First of all, I’d be much more apt to gamble on a hitter over a pitcher, despite the fact pitchers are more likely to arrive in the majors.  A rookie pitcher has proven to be inconsistent, they could dominate one game and get shelled the next.  That’s not to say that rookie pitchers are unusable, but I’d rather grab them off the waiver wire as opposed to using a draft choice.

That leaves great young hitters as the object of our affections here.  I would’ve supported owners drafting Longoria and Bruce last season from the sixteenth round and later.  I would’ve recommended the same thing with Ryan Braun prior to 2007 (in fact, I had grabbed him in the reserve round of my auction draft).

For me, taking a gamble from the sixteenth round and later on a potentially impact young bat is an easy call, if the right player presents himself.  For the past two years, there have been options available to us.  There could be this year as well, though time will tell.  Someone like Matt Wieters has been all the rage in expert mock drafts, though in my opinion people are going a little too crazy in reaching to draft him.  Matt LaPorta is another name to keep an eye on, though he’s more likely to go undrafted due to the position he plays.

So, how do you go about drafting rookies?  Do you avoid them?  Do you target them in the mid-to-late rounds?

For more great fantasy info, check out Rotoprofessor.com.