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When the Los Angeles Dodgers face Arizona today they will have Hiroki Kuroda on the hill.  Eric Stults (thumb) went on the 15-day DL to make room for Kuroda.  Kuroda pitched opening day giving up 1 Run on 4 Hits in 5-2/3 Innings (1.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP).  Last year he was 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA.  He is not a Strikeout Pitcher, but he should help you in Wins, ERA & WHIP.  If you have him, activate him.  If he happens to be available, go ahead an pick him up.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Last week we looked at five late-round power options (click here to view) that would be available for owners in need of a little boost there.  What about those of us who are desperate for some speed?  No, I’m not going to name the Juan Pierre’s of the world, because I’m not sure how much playing time he’s actually going to get.

No, this list will be five players who look likely to play every day and make a strong contribution for you in the speed department:

Coco Crisp
Here is a player I love for 2009, as he will get out of the shadows of Boston and get to play everyday.  He stole 20 bases in just 361 AB last season, and has been at 20 or more four times over the course of his career.  With a full-time gig, there’s every reason to believe that he could reach 30 or beyond this season.

He’s not a huge power threat, but he has hit 16 in a season and it would not be surprising to see him reach double-digits for the first time since 2005.  He also will give you a solid average and could approach 90 runs scored, depending on how youngsters like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler continue to mature.

People forget how good of a player Crisp was before he joined the Red Sox.  There were those who thought he could develop into a perennial 20/20 player while with the Indians, and while you should not have those lofty expectations, you should certainly expect him to become a very usable OF’er in all formats this season.

Alexi Casilla
Here is a player that I liked last season, and while he didn’t provide as much speed as you’d expect, he did prove that he was more then capable of performing in the major leagues.  I know what you are thinking, a guy with just 7 SB last season is a good pick late in my draft if I’m looking for some speed?  Actually, yes, he is.

He is the same player who had 48 SB in ‘05 between Single & Double A, which he followed up with 50 SB in ‘06 between the same two levels.  In 2007 he had a total of 35 SB between Triple A and the Majors, and with a full year of experience under his belt I would expect him to settle in and begin running more.

He has the potential to provide a potent 1-2 punch at the top of the order with Denard Span (who isn’t on this list, only because I don’t think he’ll be sitting there over the last few rounds), and has the potential to close in on 30 SB with a solid average and plenty of runs.  That’s a great combo for a middle infielder, and certainly a player I’d watch closely.

Emmanuel Burris
Is he going to be the Giants starting 2B this season?  I believe so, which immediately makes him a player worth watching if you are in need of some speed.  He had 13 SB in limited playing time for the Giants last season, meaning that 25 over a full season would easily be attainable.

Across 2 levels of Single A in ‘07, the guy stole 68 bases in 86 attempts, so there really should be no doubting his speed.  The problem may be his experience, as he had just 62 AB at Triple A (and none at Double A), before being recalled last season.  While he did hold his own with the bat (he hit .283), it’ll be interesting to see if he could maintain that type of pace.  He made consistent contact (K% of 10.0%), so if he could continue that, as well as put the ball on the ground (GB% of 64.7%), with his speed he should be able to be successful.

I would expect the Giants to use him near the bottom of the order, however, which will influence his ability to score runs.  It’s possible he gets bumped up if he gets off to a hot start (and the Giants fail to add a middle of the order bat), but time will tell.  From a pure speed perspective, he’s a great gamble in the end game and provide a desperately needed spark atop the line-up.

Felipe Lopez
We’ve already talked about him here, so I’m not going to go into too much detail.  Lopez is a player who has had a very unique career, having stolen as many as 44 bases in a season, the year after he had hit 23 HR.  He’s only had double-digit SB in 3 seasons, and one of those did not come in ‘08 when he swiped just 8.

Still, now put atop the Diamondbacks line-up, I can envision a scenario with him stealing around 20 bases for the season.  I wouldn’t draft him looking for that, but if you want to take the flyer off the waiver wire for your MI spot, I could see that playing out.

Don’t look for him to be a 20/20 player, that HR season was an aberration.  Still, he’ll give you a decent average and should score some runs.  If he could get to the 20 SB plateau, he’d be worth using, but he’s probably the longest shot on this list.

Cameron Maybin
The make-up of the Marlins line-up will certainly play a huge role in what type of SB production Maybin may offer owners.  I certainly could see the scenario developing with him hitting atop the order and Hanley Ramirez batting third, meaning that Maybin will have the potential to be this seasons Carlos Gomez, a lot of speed but not a great average.

Gomez hit .259 last season, but stole 33 bases.  Maybin certainly has that type of speed, having stolen a total of 25 bases last season between Double A and the majors.  His biggest problem is just making contact, striking out 124 times 390 AB at Double A.  That certainly is going to contribute to him struggling with the average and possibly keep him from the major leagues.

He’s going to be up at some point, having had cups of coffee in both 2007 & 2008, so monitor his situation.  If you are looking to get some speed, he’s certainly a player worth gambling on as he has been touted as one of the best prospects over the past few seasons.

Who did I miss?  What players are you focusing on for some end-game SB?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

Looking for a possible power option late in your draft?  I’m sure that’s a situation many of us are going to find ourselves in.  I know from experience, sitting there at the tail end of my draft just trying to find a name who can provide some power after I didn’t quite get enough in the early rounds.  Well, here are 5 names that are likely to be had after the 18th round who have the potential to significantly help your team in power:

Travis Hafner – Cleveland Indians
He is just 2 seasons removed from a 42 HR campaign, and I find it extremely hard to believe that at 31-years old (he turns 32 in June), he has just completely lost that type of potential.  Problems with his shoulder led to his demise last season, limiting him to 198 AB with 5 HR and hitting .197.  This is a player with a career .284 average and was between 24-42 HR the previous four seasons.

We aren’t talking about a guy who’s going to hit .310 with 40 HR, 110 RBI and 100 R, like he once was.  Would you complain with a late round pick who goes .275 with 28 HR, 85 RBI and 85 R though?

If he’s healthy, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t be that type of player.  No one would project him out to that level, but the upside is there.  There’s that disclaimer to consider, which is why he should be nothing more then a late round flyer in all formats.  That way, if he fails, he doesn’t hurt your team in the least, but if he rebounds it is huge dividends for all.

Billy Butler – Kansas City Royals
I know, given his numbers last season you have to wonder why you would even consider taking him.  We’re talking about a player who had just 11 HR last season and was so bad that he was demoted in June.  Still, 9 HR and a .305 average after the All-Star Break gives plenty of reason for optimism.  He’ll be 23 in April, which tells me that there is plenty of reason to believe the power is still developing.

At Single A in ‘05 he showed the potential, hitting 25 HR in 379 AB.  Even in Triple A in ‘07 (prior to being recalled), he hit 13 HR in 203 AB.  The power is there, he just needs to start hitting the ball in the air more.  In the major leagues, his career FB% is just 33.8%.  As he matures, I fully believe the power is going to come around, with 2009 likely to be the first time owners see his full potential.

I’m not saying he’s going to hit 30+ HR this season, that’s just too big a jump to predict.  I would think 20-25 as very realistic, however, making him a great pick at the end of your draft.

Matt Joyce – Tampa Bay Rays
After hitting 12 HR in 242 AB last season for the Tigers, there are people who are expecting him to fully breakout with regular playing time likely coming with the Rays.  At 24-years old (he’ll turn 25 in August), maybe that’ll be the case but I can’t say that I’m sold on it fully.  That’s not to say that I don’t think he has a chance to hit between 20-25 HR, because I do, but raising your expectations any higher then that would be a mistake.

At Double A in 2007, he had 465 AB and hit 17 HR.  Last season, his success came courtesy of a FB% of 47.5% and a HR/FB of 14.1%.  While I could believe him keeping up that type of HR/FB, a regression in the FB% is likely.  If he had enough AB’s to qualify, it would have placed him ninth in the league and that just isn’t going to happen over a full season.

Is he a good late round pick if you are in need of a bit of power from your OF?  Absolutely, but temper your expectations.  I would put his upside at around 25, not beyond that.

Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics
We all know the story of Jack Cust, don’t we?  He brings with him a tremendous amount of HR ability, but with it comes literally no batting average.  If you are looking for power and nothing else, however, who cares?

I know the HR/FB rate seems very unrealistic at 29.7%, but that was actually a decrease from his ‘07 season (31.7%).  Someone puts up a stat once, we call it an aberration but if he repeats it, we call it a trend.

I have to believe that he is what he’s shown us over the past 2 seasons, so 30 HR is a number that we can almost expect from him.  If you need average, I’d avoid him, otherwise he’s a good source of power at the end of your draft.

Adam LaRoche – Pittsburgh Pirates
Another player whose story is pretty well known; terrible in the first half, tremendous in the second.  Over the past 3 season, let’s take a look at his second half lines:

• 2006: .323, 19 HR, 48 RBI
• 2007: .312, 8 HR, 37 RBI
• 2008: .304, 14 HR, 42 RBI

Could this be the season where he finally puts things together for a full season?  It’s possible, and I would be willing to bet on it with one of my last picks in a draft.  I would be even more apt to do so if I’m making the pick of him as a reserve and I have a bench deep enough to stash him away and wait and see what happens.  Either way, he’s proven to be a player well worth using once the All-Star Game has come and gone, but if he could put it all together a 30 HR campaign is certainly in reach.

So, there are 5 good late game power options for you to consider.  Which one would you most like to own?  Is there someone I didn’t list you’re targeting?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

2009 Fantasy Baseball Top 5 Draft Rules
written by: Delon Ferdinand

Spring training is under way, it’s time to roll up your sleeves and get down to the nitty gritty. Fantasy Baseball is upon us, which means you need help trying to decide a whole bunch of things. What round should I draft a pitcher? Should I spend high for a closer? Is Matt Holliday still a top 20 talent? All of these are great questions, but before you jump into the pool you need to know how to swim. So I’m here to offer you the top 5 fantasy draft rules for Baseball. For the sake of this article, we’re basing this on a standard Roto league with 5X5 scoring and 12 fantasy teams. We’ll dive into head to head and keepers on a later date. We also take our research based on the 2009 rankings from ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fox Sports and Sporting News.

1.  Stay far, far away from starting pitching in your first five rounds
Take it from me; I’ve been burned by this far too many times in my eleven-year history of fantasy baseball. However, starting pitching before round 5 creates headaches like you wouldn’t imagine. This includes 2009’s top studs like CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum and anyone else you might put up there. Stay away from these players if you want to build a successful fantasy team. It’s not that these guys aren’t good. Quite the opposite, but what you spend to get them is not worth it. Let’s look at the facts:

Let’s take a look at Johan Santana’s numbers against Ervin Santana’s. Based on all of the major rankings, Johan is being drafted in the first round, as early as pick seven and as late as pick ten. Ervin Santana is being drafted on avg. as high as the sixth round and as low as the seventh. Here are both of their numbers for last season:

Johan – 34 games, 16-7 record with a 2.62 ERA, 206 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP

Ervin – 32 games, 16-7 record, 3.49 ERA, 214 Ks, 1.12 WHIP

Stellar numbers for both of these guys, that’s for sure. Now let’s look at Johan’s last five years vs. Ervin’s last three years (he’s only been in the league for four seasons):

Johan – 33.6 games started, 17.2 wins and 7.8 losses, 2.82ERA, 237.8Ks and a 1.02WHIP

Ervin – 31 games started, 13 wins and 9.6 losses, 4.51ERA, 160Ks, 1.30WHIP

There is no question Johan is the better pitcher, that much is obvious. However, we’re talking about Johan giving you 2.6 more starts, 4.2 more wins with 2.2 more losses, 1.69 lower ERA, 77.8 more Ks and a 0.28 lower WHIP based on their averages. If you base it on their performance last season, Johan starts 2 more games, gives you an identical record, 0.82 lower ERA, 8 less Ks and a 0.03 higher WHIP. This is a difference between a Porsche and a Camry. Both get you from point A to point B. You can even listen to the radio the same way, but one will cost you 70K while the other will run you about 30K with fancy options. You have countless cases like this throughout the entire draft but you want to avoid the urge of taking a big name pitcher in the first five rounds. I’ll take big Teixeira in the 10 spot if he’s there over Johan and that brings us to our next point.

2.  Hitting, hitting and more hitting
Are you starting to get the theme of the article? I’m not against pitching; I just think there’s a certain place you take them. I cannot begin to stress how important it is to take an every day player vs. one who plays every five days. I believe most people know that already. The key is not to panic when you see other GM’s taking pitchers off the board. We’ve all been a part of the “pitcher run” on draft day when one GM sets it off by taking Johan, the next one takes Lincecum, then Sabathia goes and all of a sudden eight straight pitchers have been selected. You start thinking to yourself “I got to get a SP too, now is the time”. This would be the single biggest mistake you can make. Let the other GM’s take, you need to stick to the script. If someone wants to take Brandon Webb over Manny Ramirez, you need to be very glad they did. Don’t worry about which GM’s are getting who, you’ll get your starters and here’s why:

In baseball there are 30 teams. Each team starts 5 pitchers. That’s over 150 starting pitchers. Now for arguments sake, let’s say that only the first 3 starters for each team are the only ones worth starting on a fantasy team. That’s still 90 starting pitchers in the draft. In a 12-team league that means no matter when you start taking pitchers, every team in the league can have 7.5 really good starting pitchers. That’s more than enough to go around. Look at the Yankees first 3 starters, Sabathia, Burnett, and Wang. Looks good to me. Take Boston’s rotation of Dice-K, Beckett and Lester. All three will be drafted at some point. A small market team like the Royals brings Meche, Greinke and Bannister to the table. That’s not ideal but I’m willing to bet that all three find their way on someone’s fantasy team this season. Here’s a quick test:

34 games, 14-11 record, 3.98ERA, 183Ks, 1.32WHIP

25 games, 10-8record, 4.18ERA, 122ks, 1.35WHIP

One is Gil Meche and the other is John Maine. I’m sure a lot of you think the first is John Maine upon first glance. He was on the Mets, more wins, NL park, yadda, yadda, yadda. But the first one is Gil Meche. What’s the over/ under on Meche being drafted ahead of Maine this year? Point is, you’ll get your pitching. Don’t panic and get into draft day “runs” because everyone else is doing it.

3.  PUNT a category
No matter how hard you try, you will not get 10s in every category. It’s hard enough to get 7s and 8s all year. If Baseball were a one-month season then you would have no problems. Since it’s a six-month season, the odds of you maintaining a 10 you have in HRS after the first two months are low at best. You can’t draft everyone. You can’t be heavy on the hitting and expect to dominate the pitching numbers. That would take finding an abundant amount of gems in the later round, along with waiver wire gold during the season. Everyone has a category they will do badly in. So why not go into the draft punting a category to strengthen the others. The two categories to punt are SB and SAVES. You punt HR, then you can say goodbye to RBIs too since they go hand in hand. If you punt ERA, say goodbye to having a good WHIP. Stolen bases and saves stand on their own. So you can lose either category and you’re only losing in one area. However, it is not a good idea at all to punt SB. Here’s why:

Stolen bases are like fantasy gold. You hold on to it when you have it. Then when you need to make a deal, there’s always someone who needs it badly. It’s incredibly valuable and you only get it during the draft. Try finding a 40-50 SB guy on your wire. That’s not happening, because even if that guy is there, you got 11 other GMs licking their chops at him. Plus, chances are he probably hurts you in other areas like maybe having a .208 avg. or something like that. Looking at you Juan Pierre. Saves however can be found everywhere.

Let’s say after May your team is down by 40 SB already. Jose Reyes has 20 SB to start the season. He’s a lock to get another 40 the rest of the way. Sounds like the perfect trade target for your team right? Now ask yourself if you think the GM holding Reyes would give him up. Probably not! But even if he was available, do you know what you would have to give up to get him? It’s just not happening. That’s how valuable stolen bases are. PUNT the saves and focus on shoring up everything else. Which leads us to:

4.  Do not spend high for closers
This one is short and self-explanatory if you’ve been reading the whole article. But delve into it deeper and this is why you don’t spend high for closers:

You have 30 MLB teams and that means 30 closer jobs. In a 12-person league that means 2.5 closers for everyone. There are probably 10 teams with closer by committees, so for arguments sake, there’s 20 rock solid closers. That’s still close to 2 per team. But closers lose jobs like bankers on Wall Street. Every week there’s a guy on your wire picking up saves. Pitchers go down more frequently than hitters. Imagine spending a 5th round pick on Mariano Rivera only to watch him hit the DL (he is almost 40 years old). Then you see a savvy GM pick up his replacement and gobble up all those saves you expected Rivera to get. Obviously injury hurts everyone. But a hitter plays in 150 games a year if he’s healthy. He hits the DL and misses 15 games and you still have 135 games with him. He still has a chance for some multiple home run games to make up for what he lost. Same with RBIs, but you can’t have multiple save games. Two weeks for a closer is 5-6 saves lost. Yet you drafted Rivera primarily for the 40 saves you expect out of him. That’s 15% of his total gone. Spending a 5th through 9th rounder on a closer is the second biggest mistake you can make. Not to mention all of the laughter you hear from GM’s once you do it.

5.  Always draft the all around player

This one is tricky, but benefits you in the long run. Remember it’s a marathon not a race. It happens all the time during the draft. You’re midway through and you’re looking at your team. You realize “man I need more HRs”. So against better judgment, you go ahead and select Adam Dunn two rounds earlier than he should be going rather than Vernon Wells. You’ve fallen in love with the 40 dingers because you feel you “need it” after looking at your team. In theory it should work but in actuality you’re making your team worse. Here’s the line on both for 2008:

Wells – .300avg, 20Hrs, 78RBIs, 63Runs, 4SB

Dunn – .236, 40Hrs, 100RBIs, 79Runs, 2SB

Wells missed 54 games last season. Project his numbers over a full season and you have:

.283, 25Hrs, 100RBIs, 88Runs, 8 SB

Anyway you look at it, Dunn will get you about 10 more hrs, probably 20 more RBIs with nearly identical runs missed games or not. Yet his avg. absolutely kills you. It’s like working out your arms and neglecting your stomach. You’d have big pythons with a beer gut. For me, I’ll take the well-rounded body thank you very much. It’s the same thing for SB. You pass on Matt Holiday for Ichiro Suzuki. Even though that makes more sense because Suzuki really helps you in average and runs along with the stolen bags. He’s still a three-category player while Holliday is a four-category player.

Now you are ready to swim in the pool. You still need to have a good draft. You can’t use this strategy and then go out there and draft Carlos Lee with the 3rd overall pick and expect things to work out for you. You also have to work your waiver wire and make some trades along the way. Everyone has bad years and some players may be drafted in the first round but actually perform more like a 4th rounder. But if you follow these golden principles you should have a very good team ready to compete.