Fantasy Baseball Preview | LestersLegends.com

The Bruce Is Loose

17 August 2011

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It’s that time of year again. It’s time for Jay Bruce to put on a show.
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Last year through July he hit .261 with 53 runs, ten HRs, and 53 RBI in 376 at bats. Then he caught fire and hit .338 in his next 133 at bats from August through October with 27 runs, 15 HRs, and 29 RBI. In 2009 he hit .207 with a .724 OPS before the All-Star Break and .326, 1.078 after it.
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It seems like he’s up to his old tricks again.
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Bruce actually put on a power show in May hitting .342 while clubbing 12 home runs with 33 RBI and a ridiculous 1.141 OPS, but then cooled to hit .236 in June and July with just five home runs and 19 RBI. It became frustrating for fantasy owners no doubt. In one league I nearly traded him for some speed as I couldn’t get him in the lineup over Matt Kemp, Mike Stanton, Cameron Maybin, and David Ortiz.
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Thankfully a deal never materialized because Bruce is on another bender. Since August 8th he is hitting .414 with nine runs, five home runs, and 17 RBI. In his past four games he has 11 RBI, with at least two in each game.
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Sometimes it’s the deals that don’t happen that end up helping you the most.
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I can see sitting him against a tough lefty, but don’t avoid southpaws completely. Bruce has eight home runs in 120 at bats against them and a solid .851 OPS.
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Can Nick Markakis Turn His Season Around?

10 June 2011

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Nick Markakis’ home run total decreased each year since 2007 (23, 20, 18, 12). He has four through sixty games, which puts him on pace for 11. He’s on pace for 68 runs and 51 RBI, which would also be career lows. His run totals have decreased each year since 2008 and his RBI total is on pace to decline for the third straight year.
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Markakis is no longer considered an elite fantasy outfielder. Right now, given the aforementioned decline in production and his .238 batting average, he is becoming hard to justify a roster spot. Yet, he is owned in 70 percent of fantasy leagues. When he was averaging a .300-99-20-100-11 line from 2007-2009 it was easy to give him the benefit of the doubt. Now he’s in his second season of mediocre play.
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I considered him a candidate to bounce back heading into the year, and things have gotten worse. Is it time to write Nick Markakis off or can he turn his season around?
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There is certainly room for batting average improvement. Not only because his .238 is well below the .298 lifetime average he had entering the season, but because his BABIP of .252 is well below his mark in other years. His career low was .314 in his rookie season. Since then it’s been .331, .350, .317, and .331. Baseball has a way of averaging itself out, so as his BABIP returns to form, his average should climb.
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He’s also a better second half hitter. His career mark before the All-Star Break is .284 and .305 after. The same goes for his OPS (.781, .859). He has seven more home runs in 470 fewer at bats. His sweet spot is June-August when he has hit .314. For some strange reason he only has five home runs in 134 June games, but August is his top month with 24. Even in his down 2010 season he finished strong hitting .344 with 21 runs, 4 HRs, and 15 RBI in his final 122 ABs.
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A return to the pre-2010 level seems like a long shot, but I still think he can help fantasy teams. If he’s available on your waiver wire, he’s worth a look. He’s also worth a trade attempt. You should be able to get him at a discount.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: Baltimore Orioles, fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball preview, MLB, Nick Markakis |

2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Can Danny Espinosa Deliver?

9 March 2011

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In Spanish, the word Espinosa means thorny. A rose is thorny. Danny Espinosa is much like a rose. He can be a thing or beauty for his fantasy owners, or he can be downright painful.
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Espinosa hit .214 in his brief taste with the Nationals last year, picking up 22 hits in 103 at bats. Of those 22 hits, half of them went for extra bases (four doubles, a triple, six home runs) to give him a solid .723 OPS. He also struck out thirty times. That’s a strikeout every 3.4 at bats. He also was caught stealing in both of his attempts. It seems his cup of coffee was more about the thorn than the rose.
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He has potential though. The California native hit .303 in his three years at Long Beach State and was selected in the third round with the 87th overall pick by the Nationals. He displayed a nice power/speed combo for Single-A+ Potomoc with 18 HRs and 29 SBs in 2009. His jump to Double-A Harrisburg was smooth as he hit 18 HRs again with 20 SBs. Espinosa then had 28 hits in 95 at bats for Triple-A Syracuse, before getting the call to the bigs.
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Espinosa should have no trouble beginning the season as the Nationals’ starting second basemen. He should form a double-play combo with Ian Desmond for many years to come. He’s not a player to consider as a starting fantasy second baseman, but he could provide bench depth or be used in the middle infielder slot in deeper leagues. His average draft position, according to Mock Draft Central, is 331. Odds are he’ll go undrafted in your league. That’s fine. Just keep an eye on him. If he starts off hot, he could be a sneaky power source.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview, Danny Espinosa, fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball preview, MLB, Washington Nationals |

2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Can You Trust J.P. Arencibia as Your Fantasy Catcher?

8 March 2011

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J.P. Arencibia’s potential breakout season was almost jeopardized before the season started when the Blue Jays traded for Mike Napoli. Fortunately for the young slugger, Napoli was subsequently shipped off to Texas, restoring Arencibia’s fantasy value.
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Arencibia failed to wow in his cup of coffee with the Jays last year. He hit just .143 (5 for 35) with three runs, a double, two home runs, and four RBI. He walked twice and struck out an alarming 11 times. With an on-base percentage, let alone average, below the Mendoza Line, I don’t blame you if you can’t bring yourself to trust the rookie in 2010. Just remember that you may be shying away from a good source of power.
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Arencibia has a long history of the long ball. In his three seasons at the University of Tennessee, Arencibia hit 33 HRs in 690 at bats. He had an OPS of .913 in his first year with the Vols, a 1.002 OPS in his second year, and a .995 OPS in his final year. He struggled a touch in his first taste of professional baseball, hitting .254 with a .686 OPS for Single-A- Auburn Doubledays. He then hit .315 with a .904 OPS for Single-A+ Dunedin and .282 with a .798 OPS for Double-A New Hampshire. He struggled once again when he made the jump to Triple-A hitting .236 with a .728 for the Las Vegas 51s. He came back the following year and hit .301 with 76 runs, 32 HRs, 85 RBI, and a .985 OPS.
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Last year’s struggles at the Major League level shouldn’t have been unexpected. He improved in his second and third years at Tennessee. He improved the next year after debuting in the Minors. He improved the following year after struggling with Triple-A pitching. He has shown that once he gets a taste for it, he knows what to work on to improve.
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Does that mean he’s going to suddenly hit .280 with 20 HRs? Probably not, but I do expect Arencibia to be much more comfortable at the plate next year. He has the power, and he is hitting in the right ballpark. Rogers Centre had the fourth highest home run ball park factor (1.358) in the league last year. The number was bloated, in part, because of Jose Bautista’s 33 home HRs, but it has been a top ten home run park for the better part of the past decade. The Jays aren’t afraid to swing for the fences. They have ranked first and fifth, respectively, the past two seasons in HRs.
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You don’t even necessarily have to draft J.P. His ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, is 311. Just keep an eye on him. If he starts off swinging the bat well, it would make a lot of sense to give him a shot.
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| Posted by LestersLegends | Categories: fantasy baseball, MLB | Tagged: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview, fantasy baseball, Fantasy Baseball preview, J.P. Arencibia, MLB, Toronto Blue Jays |

2011 Fantasy Baseball Profile: Is Julio Borbon a Good Source for Stolen Bases?

7 March 2011

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With 34 stolen bases in 183 games, it would be reasonable to believe that Julio Borbon would in fact be a good source for stolen bases in 2011. However, he wasn’t nearly as effective last year though as he had 15 SBs in 137 games (438 at bats) versus 19 in 46 games (157 ABs) in 2009.
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While I wouldn’t be stunned if he swiped thirty bases this year, I wouldn’t bank on it. He has a few things working against him. For starters, he isn’t patient enough at the plate. He worked just 19 walks in 468 plate appearances. He saw just 3.38 pitches per at bat. Even if he can return to the .300 level, his may not be on base as much as other speed options.
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Another thing working against him, and it should come as a surprise since he’s a lefty, but he struggled against lefties hitting just .247. David Murphy, also a lefty and who he’ll likely split time with hit .272 against southpaws. Murphy also hit .298 against righties, whereas Borbon hit .284 so don’t expect Borbon to always get the start against righties. While Murphy doesn’t possess the speed that Borbon does, he did manage 14 stolen bases last year. Plus, if the playoffs are an indication, Murphy had 27 at bats to Borbon’s nine. Any way you slice it, it looks like it’s going to be a pretty even share. The saving grace is the fact that Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz have a tendency to get hurt, which should allow both outfielders to get extra at bats.
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Borbon won’t take much of an investment, as his ADP, according to Mock Draft Central, is 280. Still, if you wish to acquire his services he’ll take up a roster spot. Perhaps he’ll be a terror on the basepaths. I just think there are better options available.
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What’s your take? Do you like Julio Borbon in 2011?
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