LestersLegends.com » fantasy baseball strategy


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By Jordan Hall
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My wife and I watch this show called House Hunters on HGTV all the time. They chronicle a couple as they look at three new houses and ultimately decide which they will purchase and move in to. She likes seeing all of the latest styles in houses, allowing her to dream about the day we take the leap into home ownership. I simply like hearing the real estate agents with funny accents. Not to be stereotypical, but the women on the show all have a real negativity problem. They want the views of the high rises but don’t want to put up with inner city noise. They want something affordable but are picky about the countertops.
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The fact of the matter is that there are compromises that need to be made. You simply cannot have it all, all the time. With that being said, most couples find a happy medium and find a home that gives them that something they cannot live without.
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When searching the waiver wire this time of year, you need to look at things from a similar perspective. Guys that are going to give you everything you want are just not available. Unless you’re playing in a 6 team league, there’s nobody in free agency that’s going to make a 5 category impact for you.
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Obviously, this point in the year is a good time to identify your teams strengths and weaknesses and act accordingly.
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Right now my Blog Wars team is having major issues with saves and strikeouts. Because of this, I have begun to target specialty guys to help with my problems. I’m not looking for an ace that is going to give me great peripherals, I’m simply looking for a guy to miss bats. I was also able to turn my strength in depth into saves with the additions of Hector Santiago and Jonathan Papelbon, but that’s for a different column.
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You can and should do the exact same thing with your team. Regardless of the category, there are cheap targets out there that can make your team better rounded without sapping your other categorical success.
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Stolen bases are the easiest to find in free agency this time of year. While the obvious names like Emilio Bonifacio and Michael Bourn sit atop the leader board, there are plenty of guys out there stealing enough bases to be helpful. Take a look at Carlos Gomez or Brent Lillibridge when you are considering. Neither will help you in any other category, they are both stealing bases at a good clip right now and figure to see fairly consistent playing time throughout the duration of the season. I also like Eduardo Nunez and Alex Presley if the first two are unavailable.
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Homers are not quite as easy to find but it is doable. If you have a deep pitching staff, it’s not a bad idea to use some of your excess to try to snake an underrated slugger like Josh Willingham. He has consistently put up the numbers without the glitz and glamour, making him a perfect trade target. If Nolan Reimold is still available you should grab him, he seems to be breaking out.
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Undoubtably Ryan Raburn’s owner has dropped him for a Brent Morel type by now so you should definitely scoop him up. While he obviously is struggling, the home run numbers will eventually be there. The Tigers have shown tremendous loyalty to him and other veterans in the past, so I expect him to get 500 at bats despite his woeful start. If he stays in the lineup he will hit 20 bombs. That would look nice coming from your second basemen. There are plenty of parallels between this season and Michael Morse’s breakout in late 2010 and 2011 and there is no reason to miss out.
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Did you know that Ryan Sweeney is hitting .390, A.J. Pierzynski .348, and Robert Andino .316? None of those guys are going to help you in any other category but if all you lack is average, these are three cheap and fairly reliable choices. Playing time will not dry up for any of them and all hit in surprisingly good lineups.
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When it comes to pitching, cheap strikeouts are everywhere. A.J. Burnett has long been a poster child for this line of thinking but he’s been joined in the ranks buy guys like Jake Arrieta, Vance Worley, and Felix Doubront. All of these guys are likely free agents in your league and can instantly boost your strikeout total. There’s a chance that each will help you in the win column as well, and added bonus.
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There are options out there if your peripherals are struggling as well. I have been targeting Doug Fister while he has been injured and his value reduced. When he comes back he’s going to be a two category stud with WHIP and ERA. Eventually his value will rebound; now is the time to strike here.
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Jake Westbrook has quietly gotten off to a dominating start. His numbers have been great if you ignore strikeouts and I would suggest that you do just that. A WHIP of 1 and an ERA that’s not far behind is helpful even if he never struck a single batter out.
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Realize that the fantasy season is a marathon and not a sprint. We have but a couple weeks down and nobody is eliminated from contention just yet. With that being said, now is the time to act, especially in a Roto league. Don’t get buried so far in a category that you can’t dig yourself out. There are plenty of options out there as long as you are willing to put up with some noise to get the view.
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I would be happy to answer your fantasy questions or give advice. Drop me a line at www.twitter.com/lefthandsmoke23.
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joe-mauer
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By Jordan Hall

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Garage sales. Oh garage sales. Nothing is a testament to the American spirit like garage sales. Rolling the dice, driving around on your day off looking to turn someone else’s trash into your treasure.
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Last summer, my fiancé decided that a particularly glorious Saturday morning in late July would be perfect for the high adventure of the garage sale circuit. After an endless stream of garages filled with things she referred to as “cute,” we finally hit something that left a mark.
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It was a giant oval table and it was filled with underwear. Used underwear. While I was initially repulsed and astounded, a sort of wonder came over me, thinking, “somebody’s really going to buy used underwear at a garage sale?” And the answer was yes, somebody did buy a couple pair while we were there. I also found a classic MC Hammer cd while I was there; gold by any definition of the word.
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Turning someone else’s trash into your treasure is not a concept that is unique to garage sales. The same thought can be used in fantasy baseball. While some people meticulously pick out and target each player on their roster, most have a bit of a haphazard style when it comes to drafting their team. Just because someone owns a player does not mean that he values them.
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Here is a list of guys that are being undervalued in the fantasy world right now. These are guys that I think you can get for under market value and that will return you much more then their draft position in output. Trading in the early going is always risky because everything is still a mystery. You might end up with a couple pair of used underwear but I like the chances that these guys turn into
gold for you.
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Alfonso Soriano may be the most maligned player in baseball right now but the guy can still hit. Despite his advanced age he’s still a tantalizing power/speed combination. He figures to hit in the middle of the Cubs order and drive in a fair amount of runs. There’s a lot of forgotten potential with Soriano, try to take advantage of that.
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Joe Mauer is going as the 4th or 5th catcher taken. There was a point in time when he was referred to as the best pure hitter in baseball, don’t forget that. He still carries a lot of name recognition but many owners have forgotten why. Mauer has had a classic spring and looks to be fully healthy. I don’t think 20 homers and a .320 average are out of the question this year. Grab him now before he starts to evoke memories of the old Joe.
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Ryan Raburn has always had tremendous pop, he’s just lacked the opportunity. This season figures to be the season he gets enough at bats to make an impact. The fact that he qualifies at second makes him even more attractive as a breakout candidate. He will have runners on base for him and he has proven he can crush a fastball. 30 homers and 100 RBI’s are not unreasonable with good health, after his stellar spring. Lowball his owner before he breaks out in the regular season.
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While were on the topic of the boys from the Motor City, I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about the whole of the Tiger’s outfield. All three outfielders are going to be fantasy studs this year. Austin Jackson will sit atop the Tigers’ potent lineup. He will score tons of runs and has been given the green light to steal. 30 to 40 stolen bases are reasonable to expect. Brennan Boesch may be the most under respected outfielder in baseball. Hitting before Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will allow him to see all kinds of pitches to hit. He should excel in average, runs, RBI’s and homers. He’s a star sheet stuffer. Delmon Young will be the beneficiary of  hitting behind those two sluggers. RBI opportunities will be aplenty for Young, who seems to have been reborn in Detroit. All three are in for massive seasons. Send your trade offers now.
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17-7 with a 2.33 ERA. Not a bad year right? Well that was Clay Buchholz 2010 campaign. Last year was riddled with injuries but he is back now. I would expect his strikeout rate to jump this season and obviously he’s going to win a lot of ball games with the Sox behind him. He’s got incredible natural ability and it’s guys like that that dominate the strikeout category. He’s about to take a step into
ace status. This is your last chance to deal for him before he takes that step.
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Ryan Dempster had a down year by his standards last year and still wasn’t bad, registering 191 K’s and 202 innings. Two years ago he was even better, striking out 208 guys and winning 15 games. At age 35 he’s obviously regressing in his skill set but he was unlucky last year as well. The price is right, buy now.
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Feel free to drop me a line with comments at www.twitter.com/lefthandsmoke23


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By Mitch Charette
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S
o you want to impress your friends this year by drafting the best team and owning the coveted bragging rights at the end if the season? You found the right article then. Throughout the years, as an avid fantasy manager, I have learned what it takes to draft not only a competitive team, but I have received first round byes four years running. I will not dazzle you with statistics and numbers, or recommend specific sleepers and warn you of busts. If you want to be spoon fed with exactly who to draft, then you shouldn’t expect to win. I will explain why later. What I will do though, is help with strategy.

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Like all fantasy sports, the key to building a successful team is within the draft. Baseball is by far the most complex fantasy sport. I will focus on a 12 team head-to-head league with the following categories up for grabs; AVG, HR, R, RBI, SB, W, SV, K, WHIP, and ERA. The exact number of teams in your league shouldn’t take any credibility from these guidelines, so let’s get started.

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Research: This should be common sense, but year in and year out there is always one or two managers showing up to my live drafts with nothing more than a fantasy baseball booklet bought at the news stand on the way. Don’t be that guy. If you don’t have time to properly draft a fantasy team, then you probably don’t belong trying to manage it. Take pride in your research, it will form the foundation of your team.

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First and foremost, know the players. When I say know the players, I am not talking about Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. I am talking about the lesser known, solid players. Being familiar with reliable players without the gaudy numbers gives you an advantage in the later rounds.

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Participate in mock drafts. Many of them. Completing one mock draft will not give you a true advantage point of where the public stands. Often, mock drafts are full of people simply passing time while bored. The more mock drafts you analyze, the better understanding you will have of when you can take chances or steal a player right out from under the rest of the league.

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Ignore hype. As you conduct your research, reading many articles and multiple rankings, you will find numbers of analysts touting relatively unknown players. Take all of this with a grain of salt. Personally, I tend to let someone else risk getting burned. Sure, sometimes these risks pay off and might make you look like a genius, but the majority of the time it is the consistent players with a history that bring your team to the playoffs.

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Draft Offense: Every draft you will see Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander going quick and early. Unless the rest of the draftees are clueless, I would be willing to bet the teams drafting pitchers within the first few rounds are struggling by the end of the season. It is very enticing to see these Cy Young winning pitchers on the available list, but remember one thing; they will only pitch every 4-5 days. They mean nothing if the rest of your staff is posting horrendous numbers. At minimum, your first three rounds should be devoted to sluggers. Look for AVG, HR, R, and RBI.

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To take this a step further, consider the positions in which you draft first. Every year, talent levels vary at different positions. Not paying attention to this could leave you with a gaping hole within your lineup. For example, you may consider drafting Tulowitski early, knowing that short stops with any substantial power numbers are very hard to come by. With the same strategy, remember that there are many more outfielders than specific infield positions. Just as important, you can sacrifice some stats for players that are eligible in multiple positions. This will help you ten fold when you catch the DL disease or find yourself lacking players during those pivotal “off” days.

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Draft players surrounded by other good players. A player may have all the talent in the world, but it does you no good if he doesn’t have anyone capable of scoring runs or racking up the RBIs around him.

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This is the reason you see multiple fantasy leaders from the same team. Stay away from teams like the Oakland Athletics.

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Last, but definitely not least when it comes to drafting offensive players, pay attention to every statistical category in your league’s scoring system. Complacent managers often find themselves drafting a team full of, for instance, home run hitters but fail to realize their team AVG will be amongst the lowest of the league.

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Pitching: This is what I concentrate on once the 5th round comes along. After my first few years of managing a fantasy team, I was shocked to learn that three or four good pitchers produced just as well as one or two aces. As long as you pay attention to a few important things, you can get a much better bang for your buck per say by drafting pitchers in the middle rounds.

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Look at what teams these pitchers represent. Remember, the toughest category in most head-to-head leagues, when it comes to pitching, is wins. A second or third man in the rotation of a 90 win team could easily provide you with wins on a more regular basis than you think.

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Stay away from the injury risks! I cannot say this enough. Nothing is worse than losing a consistently good pitcher to the same injury he sustained last year. Stay away from pitchers like Clay Buchholz unless you are confident in the rest of your staff.

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I don’t feel the need to explain to you why you should look at K, ERA and WHIP. Every pitcher you select should be not much of a worry in at least two of these categories. Just remember to mix it up. You never want to leave yourself inept in one category. Do that, and you are down 0-1 before the week even begins.

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Relief Pitching: I cringe every second I am required to think about drafting for relief. It is, in my opinion, the hardest to draft correctly. Not because of complication, lack of depth on the draft board, or unfamiliarity, but rather because relief pitchers are often under harsh scrutiny and forever having their roles changed. One month you have the best closer in baseball in Sergio Santos, and next thing you know he is taking turns as set up man and cheerleader. Sorry, I just had flashbacks from last years Achilles heal of my team. The problem here is that one bad week for a relief pitcher, often means a demotion. Unless you have drafted the rock solid names like Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon, it might be inevitable you feel my pain. My advice? Draft three closers.

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The Late Rounds: After you fulfill your needs at pitching and stock up on a few more hitters during the middle rounds, there are only three words that should be going through your exhausted mind. Upside, upside, and upside. This is the fun part of the draft. Take your chance on Yoenis Cespedes (click here to read my take on him), the powerhouse looking Cuban player you saw all over ESPN. If people like him have already been drafted, good. You are probably already in position to rule this league and raise your arms in triumph over those dimwits who draft undeserving players early.

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Just as a visual aid, your draft should look somewhat similar to this:

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1-4: Sluggers at key positions.

5-9: Pitching. Don’t forget one or two decent closers here.

10-17: A mix of consistent hitters and pitching. To your discretion. Hopefully well researched.

18-20: Sleeper rounds.

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I hope this article is a start for you novice managers out there. And if you consider yourself an expert, I hope you can still take a point or two from this. Feel free to contact me at anytime for advice, discussion, or a good old fashioned intellectual debate.

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Twitter: twitter.com/mitchcharette

Email: mitch.charette@gmail.com

B/R Page: http://bleacherreport.com/users/844840-mitch-charette

free-agent-pool1

 

Are you hurting in the RBI category? Here are some reasonably available players that can help you out.
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Russell Martin, New York Yankees:  Martin’s monster five for five, two home run, six RBI day sways his numbers a bit, but he’s hitting .304 for this month with 14 runs, seven home runs, and 19 RBI. Martin plays catcher and is owned in 69.0 percent of Yahoo! and 52.2 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Lucas Duda, New York Mets:  Duda is also having a wonderful month for New York’s other team. He’s hitting .329 with ten runs, five home runs, and 19 RBI. Lucas is eligible at first base and outfield and is owned in less than ten percent of fantasy leagues.
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Kyle Blanks, San Diego Padres:  Blanks is starting to live up to his promise. He’s hitting .316 for the month with 14 runs, six home runs, and 18 RBI. Kyle is eligible at outfield (and first base in Yahoo! leagues) and is owned in less than 20 percent of fantasy leagues.
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Rod Barajas, Los Angeles Dodgers:  Barajas is hitting .370 in August with seven runs, five home runs, and 16 RBI making him a solid option if you’re looking for some pop at catcher. Rod is owned in less than five percent of fantasy leagues.
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Delmon Young, Detroit Tigers:  Delmon has found new life since going over to the Tigers. He’s motivated and hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera. In 11 games with the Tigers he’s hitting .313 with four runs, two home runs, and nine RBI. Delmon plays outfield and is owned in 46.0 percent of Yahoo! and 60.3 percent of ESPN leagues.
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John Mayberry, Jr.:  Mayberry is hitting .326 this month with 11 runs, six home runs, and 15 RBI. John plays outfield and is owned in less than ten percent of ESPN leagues.
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J.D. Martinez, Houston Astros:  Martinez is hitting .295 since coming up on July 30th with 14 runs, five home runs, and 24 RBI. J.D. plays outfield and is owned in ten percent of Yahoo! and 18.1 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Dodgers:  Rivera is hitting .315 for the month with ten runs, two home runs, and 18 RBI. Juan is eligible at first base and outfield and is owned in less than five percent of fantasy leagues.
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free-agent-pool
Brought to you in honor of Strikeout for Troops.

 

Some reasonably available players to assist you in the Strikeouts category.  Realize that some of these will come with high ERAs & WHIPs because if a Pitcher has low numbers in those categories and a good K total, they’re already spoken for.
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Rich Harden, Oakland A’s: Harden had 11 strikeouts his last time out to give him 60 on the year in 53 innings (10.2 K/9) of work. Aside from the nice strikeout ratio Harden is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He’s owned in about 20 percent of fantasy leagues making him a nice target. Harden’s next start is against the Yankees on Thursday.
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Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins:  Vazquez has turned it on collecting 21 strikeouts over 19 innings (9.9 K/9) in his past three starts. He also has a 2.45 ERA over his past five starts. He is owned in less than 40 percent of fantasy leagues. Vazquez’s next start comes Wednesday against the Reds.
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Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves:  Minor is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 17-1/3 innings (10.4 K/9) over his past three starts. Minor is owned in less than 15 percent of fantasy leagues. He makes a real nice start later today against the Cubs.
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Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox:  Floyd is 2-0 in his past thee starts with a 3.72 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts in 19-1/3 innings (8.8 K/9). On the year he’s 11-10 with a 1.19 WHIP and 117 strikeouts. Floyd is owned in less than half of fantasy leagues. He has a favorable match-up against the Mariners on Sunday.
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John Danks, Chicago White Sox:  Danks is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts in 19-1/3 innings (8.4 K/9) over his past three starts. On the year he has a 3.88 ERA and 104 strikeouts. Danks is owned in about 55 percent of fantasy leagues. His next start is on Saturday against the Mariners.
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Also check out:

free-agent-pool1

 

Are you hurting in the RBI category? Here are some reasonably available players that can help you out.
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Josh Willingham, Oakland A’s:  Willingham has 16 RBI since July 28th to bring his season total up to 66 on the year. He’s struggling with his average hitting .249, but it’s not stopping him from driving in the runs. Willingham has 19 home runs on the year as well. Josh is owned in about 30 percent of Yahoo and 60 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Yunieksy Betancourt, Milwaukee Brewers:  Betancourt had 15 RBI since July 27th entering last night’s game against the Cardinals to give him 50 on the year, which isn’t bad for a shortstop at this point in the season. He has a hit in 20 of his past 22 games, eight of them being multi-hit games. Yuniesky has been red hot since June, but is still only owned in a little under 30 percent of fantasy leagues.
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Mike Carp, Seattle Mariners:  Carp is hitting .310 with 12 runs, four home runs, and 18 RBI in 35 games (116 at bats) since debuting on June 8th. He’s riding a nine-game hitting streak. Mike is owned in less than fifteen percent of fantasy leagues.
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Rick Ankiel, Washington Nationals:  Ankiel has 11 RBI since July 29th as he’s finally finding a groove. He has a hit in nine of his past ten games. Rick is also owned in less than fifteen percent of fantasy leagues.
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Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rivera has ten RBI since July 31st to bring his season total up to 41. He has a hit in 11 of his past 12 games. Juan is owned in less than two percent of fantasy leagues.
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Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians:  Kipnis has six home runs and 11 RBI since debuting on July 22nd. Jason is owned in 30 percent of Yahoo! and 60 percent of ESPN leagues..
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Also check out:

 

free-agent-pool
Brought to you in honor of Strikeout for Troops.

 

Some reasonably available players to assist you in the Strikeouts category.  Realize that some of these will come with high ERAs & WHIPs because if a Pitcher has low numbers in those categories and a good K total, they’re already spoken for.
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Rich Harden, Oakland A’s:  Harden is 3-2 in seven starts with a 4.07 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts in 42 innings ( 9.64 K/9). Rich is owned in 12 percent of Yahoo! and 10.9 percent of ESPN leagues. His next start is on Sunday against Texas so you may want to hold off on throwing him into your lineup. Of course, if you’re in a weekly league where you are already out of the ERA and WHIP category for the week and need strikeouts, Harden can be used.
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John Danks, Chicago White Sox:  Danks had 28 strikeouts in his past 25-1/3 innings (9.95 K/9) while going 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. On the year he’s just 4-9 but has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts in 119-1/3 innings (7.01 K/9).  August has been rough, but Danks was untouchable in June and July. His next start is Sunday against Kansas City. John is owned in 53 percent of Yahoo! and 60.4 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals:  Hochevar had 20 strikeouts in his past 21-1/3 innings (8.44 K/9) while going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He’s won his past four decisions to improve to 8-8 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He hadn’t been a strikeout pitcher up to this stretch, but you can ride him while he’s hot. His next start is on Saturday against the White Sox. Luke is owned in less than ten percent of fantasy leagues.
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Cory Luebke, San Diego Padres:  Luebke had 18 strikeouts in 20-1/3 innings (7.97 K/9) in his past three starts while going 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. On the year’s he’s 4-6 with a 3.06 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts in 88-1/3 innings (9.27 K/9). Cory is owned in about 35 percent of fantasy leagues.
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Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox:  Peavy had 21 strikeouts in 27 innings (7 K/9) while going 1-2 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. On the year he’s 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts in 81-2/3 innings (6.94 K/9)
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