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The first month of the fantasy baseball season is behind us.  By now you have a good idea of what your team is, and equally as important, what your team is not.  If you find yourself at the bottom of the standings, the thought of clawing your way to the top may not be very realistic.  That doesn’t mean you have to waive the white flag.  There is plenty of baseball left to be played, plenty of time for your team to turn things around, and plenty of ways you can accomplish that goal.

A good start would be to assess your team.  What categories are you strong in?  Which ones are you week in?  Typical fantasy baseball leagues are 5×5 leagues, meaning there are hitter categories for Average, Runs, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, and Stolen Bases; and pitcher categories for Wins, Earned Run Average, Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts, and Saves.  You are awarded points based on your rankings in those categories.  If there are 12 people in your league the team that leads the category will get twelve points, and the team in last will get one point.  If you are dominating a category, perhaps you can make a trade to improve an underperforming category.  For example, if you are the league leader is Saves you get the same amount of points if you are ahead by one Save as you get for being ahead by 20 Saves.  Now say you’re middle-of-the-pack in the SB category.  If you can trade away one of your Closer for a speedster you can still win your Saves category, maybe by 10 Saves instead, and you can improve your ranking in the SB category.  You would still get your 12 points from the Saves category, but perhaps you would gain a couple points in the SB category.  If you can do a couple strategic trades you could make your way up the standings in no time.

Trading away your players isn’t the only way to improve your team.  Work the free agent pool.  If you are excelling in Average, perhaps you can afford to take on a speedster that is struggling at the plate for a week or two.  Sure, your average will dip a bit, but it’s a lot easier to raiser your team average than it is to rack up SBs.  Besides, if you’re only doing it in short spurts, you’re only talking about a small percentage of your overall At Bats.  If your average dips to a point you’re not comfortable with, stop using the speedster for a while.  You don’t necessarily have to drop the guys when you are done with them.  You can just stash them on your bench until you’re ready to use them again. 

Take some risks.  If you’re in last place don’t be afraid to shake some things up.  I don’t recommend trading away your key players because they have started the season slow, but perhaps you can find an owner who will.  You buy a solid player low, and reap the rewards when he turns it around.  If he doesn’t turn it around, the risk is minimal because you were struggling to begin with.

Finally, pay attention.  If a player gets hurt, you can stumble into a goldmine by simply picking up the replacement.  This is especially true for injured Closers.  The replacement is not typically owned, and can be a short-term boost to your Saves category.  Pay attention to match-ups as well.  If a guy struggles against a particular Pitcher, or even vs. righties or lefties, you may want to bench him against those match-ups.  One of the most satisfying things is to bench someone that goes 0 for 4.  Occasionally you’ll guess wrong, but if you do your research you’ll probably be ahead of the curve.

Follow these tips and you could find yourself looking down at the pack instead of up at it.

Now let’s take a look at some Pitchers that typically start off slow.  Some of these guys could be good Buy Low candidates.

Johan Santana – It’s pretty much common knowledge that Johan takes a little while to heat up.  I can’t post about slow starting Pitcher though and not mention him, even if it’s highly unlikely he’ll come available.  Before the All-Star break Johan was 8-7 with a 2.84 ERA and after the break he was 8-0 with a 2.17 ERA.  He posted ERAs of 3.24 & 3.74 in April and May.  For his career he is 26-19 with a 4.01 ERA before June and 83-32 with a 2.75 ERA after it.

Roy Oswalt - Roy started off really slow going 4-5 with a 5.45 ERA before June.  He was a sizzling 9-2 with a 1.96 in August and September.  For his career he is 62-44 with a 3.32 ERA before the break and 67-20 with a 2.89 ERA after it.  He’s not as high profile as Johan so if he starts slow, maybe you can wrestle him away from the competition.

Derek Lowe - Lowe had a great season last year, but he did register a 0-4, 6.11 ERA May.  He was 7-8 with a 3.85 ERA before the break and 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA after it.  That has been the trend for his career as he is 64-66 with a 3.91 ERA before the break and 62-41 with a 3.54 ERA in the second half.  Lowe is great buy low candidate if he struggles early.

Ted Lilly - Lilly is in the same category is Lowe.  He’s a prime candidate to pluck if he struggles early.  Last year he was 5-4 with a 5.54 ERA in April and May and 12-5 with a 3.42 ERA the rest of the way.  Historically Lilly is 50-46 with a 4.42 ERA before the break and 41-29 with a 4.37 ERA after the break.

Jesse Litsch – Litsch is another one that could be had if he struggles early.  Last year he was 8-6 with a 4.16 ERA before the break and 5-3 with a 2.60 ERA after the break.  He displayed a similar trend in 2007 as he went 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA before the break and 6-6 with a 3.54 ERA after it.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

There was a time when Alfonso Soriano was one of the most vaunted players in all of baseball, a consistent threat to post a 40/40 season.  His past two seasons have seen a decline in his production, in part due to injuries (he played in 135 and 109 games), calling into question just how valuable he still is.

According to Mock Draft Central he currently has an ADP of 24.12, the eighth outfielder coming off the board.  Is that a valid draft position?  Should he still be selected among a drafts first two rounds?

Let’s first take a look at his numbers from last season:

453 At Bats
.280 Batting Average (127 Hits)
29 Home Runs
75 RBI
76 Runs
19 Stolen Bases
.344 On Base Percentage
.532 Slugging Percentage
.305 Batting Average on Balls in Play

We first have to discuss the injuries.  Last season marked the second consecutive year he missed time with a leg injury (quadriceps and calf, respectively).  He also suffered a broken finger last season, but that I would classify more in the fluky category.  The consistent leg injuries have got to be a concern at this point, because it plays a huge role in his potential value.

The advantage he used to give you in both power and speed helped to make him one of the best in the league.  He’s had three seasons of 40+ SBs and another two with over 30.  The past two seasons has seen him post a pair of 19 SB years, however.

Considering that he is hitting atop the Cubs line-up, meaning he does not have the RBI potential that most power hitters possess, the loss of excessive SB puts a major dent in his value.  If he is healthy and plays a full season then I easily could see him returning to the land of 25 SB, but at 33-years old it is hard for me to imagine him eclipsing that mark.

Yes, I know that he was on a better pace then that last season, but he was not in 2007.  Throw in the risk of him potentially going down once again, and it all adds up.

We all know that he has power, which is something that has never been called into question.  He has had at least 28 HR a season every year since 2002, including four years of over 30, and another one over 40.  While it was thought that the move from RFK to Wrigley Field would only enhance his power numbers, that has not been the case.

His FB% has actually been below his 2006 pace since signing with the Cubs, though he has been right around his career average:

• 2004 – 47.3%
• 2005 – 47.1%
• 2006 – 51.4%
• 2007 – 46.3%
• 2008 – 48.0%

Think he was out to prove his value in that 2006 season and in turn cash in on a lucrative free agent contract?  It certainly is not very far-fetched and the numbers don’t lie.  He is more of a mid-30’s guy, as opposed to the player who exploded for 46.

He’s a career .282 hitter and has only once reached the .300 mark (in 2002).  He’s never shown the ability to be an elite hitter, thanks mostly to below average plate discipline.  He’s struck out 21.7% of the time over his career, and has been even worse the past three seasons:

• 2006 – 24.7%
• 2007 – 22.5%
• 2008 – 22.7%

Couple that with a 5.7% career walk rate and you get the idea.  Don’t look for things to suddenly change.  You know exactly what you are going to get.

Yes, he should have the ability to score runs hitting atop the Cubs line-up.  He’ll have some very talented hitters looking to drive him in, including Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee.  In 2007 he crossed the plate 97 times, despite the injuries, so a healthy Soriano could easily exceed the 100 mark.  Realistically, I’d bank on him at least surpassing 90 this season.

With all that said, let’s see what I’d project for him this season:

.282 (158-560), 33 HR, 81 RBI, 95 R, 22 SB, .314 BABIP, .328 OBP, .530 SLG

Those would be extremely impressive numbers, but are they second round impressive?  While he has the potential to significantly exceed these numbers, at this point there is too much risk of the injury.  He also does not bring the RBI potential of a slugger, nor the excessive SB potential of a speedster.  That makes him a “tweener”.

To me, the loss of speed is the reason why I’m not going to select him.  Carlos Beltran is going right around the same spot (21.29 ADP), and while he doesn’t have extreme SB potential either, he at least brings 100 RBI potential.  What about Carlos Lee, with an ADP of 25.72?  He too does not bring speed, but he has more RBI and a higher average.

There are just other options available I’d rather take, meaning that I would pass on Soriano in the second round.  If he’s there in the third, then yeah, but not before.  What about you?  Is Soriano a player you want in the second round?  Why or why not?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Here is a list of guys who typically get off to slow starts.  If you draft them, be patient.  If you didn’t take them, they may good buy low candidates.

Ryan Howard - Howard is a beast so he probably isn’t going to come available, but don’t be discouraged by a slow start.  Last year year he hit .234 with 28 HRs and 84 RBI in 96 games before the All-Star break and .276 with 20 & 62 in the last 66 games.  For his career he hits 47 points higher after the break.

Ichiro Suzuki – Ichiro hit .252 in March & April last year and .323 the rest of the way.  His April swoon may seem uncharacteristic for Ichiro, but he is a .294 hitter in April and a .337 hitter thereafter.  If he struggles early, maybe you can surgically remove him from somebody’s team.

Bobby Abreu - You may assume a slow start is due to relocation, but remember he hit .269 with just 3 HRs in 28 April games last year.  Historically, April is his worst month.  He has a .282 average and 31 HRs and 154.  He has at least 40 HRs & 170 RBI in every other Month but September (35 & 163).  Plus, he hits .303 in the other months.  He could be primed to take off someone’s hands if he starts slow.

Written by Eric Stashin the Rotoprofessor

There are people who will tell you that this column is completely pointless because under no circumstances should a pitcher be taken this early.  It really doesn’t matter who the pitcher is, there is just too much inherent risk involved to waste an early round pick.

I’m not a believer in that strategy.  I feel like the right pitcher is worth an early round pick.  For years Johan Santana has helped fantasy owners to victory so why shy away from him?  I wouldn’t waste an early pick on just any pitcher, but for a true ace…  For a pitcher who can buoy your rotation…  For the best of the best, I do believe it is worth it.

With that said, does Tim Lincecum fall into that category?  There’s no doubting his abilities, he proved that last season when he posted the following line:

18 Wins
227.0 Innings
2.62 ERA
1.17 WHIP
265 Strikeouts (10.51 K/9)
84 Walks (3.33 BB/9)
.313 BABIP

I know people want to point to those innings and say that he is too big of a risk due to injury.  There is just no way his arm can handle that load, especially given his delivery.  That’s another argument that I just don’t buy.  Who’s to say what a pitcher’s arm can or cannot handle?  Everyone is different.  Everyone can handle different stresses and different workloads.

We’ve all heard about how Lincecum’s delivery was designed, so that really isn’t a concern for me.  Could he get injured?  Of course, that’s always a risk, but one that is there for any player.  How do you think people feel who have already drafted Alex Rodriguez with one of the first five picks on draft day.  Now he could be out of action for a month or more, putting a dent in their plans.

How about Carlos Lee last season, who had been carrying fantasy rosters to victory and then in the blink of an eye, his season was over.  We can discuss the fears of Josh Hamilton’s ability to stay healthy as well, but that hasn’t stopped people from grabbing him in the first round (despite my thoughts).

Talent is talent.  There are always risks, but a potential injury to a pitcher should not preclude you from selecting him.

With all that out of the way, now it’s time to decide if the talent is actually there for him to be selected that early.  Everyone knew he could be one of the best in the league, I just don’t think anyone saw it coming so quickly or completely, but is it repeatable?

The Giants have done anything they could to improve their club, outside of landing the big bat they desperately needed (aka Manny Ramirez).  They strengthened their bullpen.  They added a veteran presence to the rotation.  They fortified their defense on the infield.

Will that lead to more wins, or at least the same number?  It’s impossible to say.  The Giants should be good, but we don’t draft on win potential.  I can say that till I’m blue in the face.  It’s just too risky, too unpredictable.

His WHIP was strong, and should continue to be so.  Yes, he doesn’t have the best control, but he made significant strides from his rookie campaign:

• 2007 – 4.00 BB/9
• 2008 – 3.33 BB/9

Over his minor league career he posted a BB/9 of 3.3, though that was over just 62.2 innings.  A regression could be in order, but even if he does fall slightly, it’s not going to have a huge impact.  That’s because with his strikeouts, he can maintain a tremendous WHIP even with a higher BABIP (since there are few balls put in play).

Last season his BABIP was .313, placing him in the lower half of the league.  With a shortstop with a bit more range now there, those hits could decrease as well and his BABIP should shrink.

In total, a repeat of his 1.17 WHIP could certainly be in order, though a light increase is also possible.  Last season that placed him in the Top 15 of the league.  As long as he doesn’t start walking the ballpark or suddenly stop striking people out, he’s likely to be in the Top 30 again, if not better.

How about the strikeouts?  That number last season was one of the elite.  His K/9 (10.51) was the best in the league by over a strikeout per 9 innings (Volquez was second with a 9.46).  Since 2005 only three other pitchers have posted K/9 over 10 in a season: Scott Kazmir, Erik Bedard and Mark Prior.

I know, with that crew as company, let the injury questions return, right?  Nolan Ryan used to plow people down year in and year out and no one had injury concerns about him, so let’s move on.

It’s tough to expect any pitcher to be able to repeat that type of strikeout performance.  Johan Santana, who showed the potential to reach that plateau season-in and season-out, actually only reached it twice.  Instead, he generally sat in the 9.25 – 9.61 range (excluding last season).  It’s very likely that Lincecum can’t match the production here he showed.

There’s no doubt about his talents, and before I make my ultimate decision, let’s take a look at the numbers I’d expect him to post this season:

205.0 IP, 17 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 222 K (9.75 K/9), 80 BB (3.51 BB/9)

What this decision really comes down to is if you would rather take Lincecum or a hitter like Lee or Prince Fielder.  It’s an extremely tough decision, since you are really comparing apples and oranges.

The line I projected for him is a tremendous line, an elite line.  I still don’t put him as the top pitcher off the board, that honor goes to Johan Santana until he proves differently (that’s a discussion for another day).  I did put Lincecum as the second best, but to me, I’d much rather grab him in Round #3.  The hitters that are available are just too good to pass up.  Factor in the likely regression, however slight it is, in WHIP and K’s, and it makes the decision a little easier.

If I miss out on Lincecum, I know that C.C. Sabathia or Brandon Webb is likely to be sitting there when I pick again.  Yes, there’s a falloff in the strikeout department, but not enough to make me reach for Lincecum.

What about you?  Is Lincecum someone that you would like to grab in Round 2?

Picture courtesy of Icon Sports Media, Inc.