LestersLegends.com

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Paul Maholm @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Maholm could find himself walking into the wrong locker room after seven years with the Pirates. He is 4-3 with a 4.73 ERA, but a solid 1.20 WHIP. He has been either really good (four starts with one or fewer runs) or really bad (four starts with four or more runs). He has a career ERA of 3.80 at PNC park.
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Season Totals: 23-15,  307-1/3 IP, 226 Ks, 3.66 ERA (125 earned runs), 1.22 WHIP (269 hits, 105 walks)

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Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava is off to a torrid start to the 2012 season. In 40 at bats over 14 games he’s hitting .350 with an impressive 1.091 OPS.
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Among his 14 hits are four doubles and two home runs. Perhaps equally as impressive have been his ten walks to give him a .491 on-base percentage. Nava has scored nine runs, driven in eleven more, and picked up a stolen base to round off his hot start.
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If you look inside the numbers, there could be cause for concern based on his BABIP of .375, but he’s always maintained a high number.
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Nava is not without his flaws. He’s hitting just .125 with a .563 OPS against left-handed pitching. Sure, he’s grilling righties to the tune of .500, 1.421, but his inability to hit southpaws is troubling.
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As is his home/away splits. He’s hitting .533, 1.708 at Fenway and .240, .683 elsewhere. He had similar differentials in 2010 with the Red Sox (.207 against lefties, .187 on the road vs. .250 vs. righties, .291 at home).
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Perhaps that’s why he’s owned in less than a quarter of fantasy baseball leagues.
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Nava crushed Single-A+ (.340, .943) and Double-A pitching (.364, 1.047) and held his own at the Triple-A level (.280, .811). He was hitting .316 for Pawtucket prior to his call-up. He’s getting the job done this year, but he does have limited fantasy appeal.
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Nava is best used in a serious streaming mode while the Red Sox outfielders (Ellsbury and Crawford) are on the shelf. At this point I would only use him during home games agaisnt right-handed starters. Once they return he’ll be a left-handed bench spot at best.
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Also check out:

• Are You Flipping For Felipe Paulino?
• Should You Consider Brian Dozier?
• Fantasy Feast Closer Report – 5/21/12
• Is Elliot Johnson a Short-term Fix?
• Christian Friedrich Off to a Sizzling Start

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A.J. Burnett vs. Chicago Cubs
His overall ERA of 4.78 and WHIP of 1.33 are misleading as he got torched for 12 runs on  12 hits in 2-2/3 innings by the Cardinals on May 2nd. He has spun quality starts in his other five starts. He’s 1-0 at home with a 1.57 ERA in three starts. He faced the Cubs last year, picking up a win with a 3.38 ERA over 5-1/3 innings.
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Season Totals: 22-15,  301 IP, 220 Ks, 3.74 ERA (125 earned runs), 1.22 WHIP (263 hits, 103 walks)

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Sure he’s only made four starts this year, but Kansas City’s Felipe Paulino is certainly turning heads. In three of his four starts this year he did not allow a run. His fourth start he gave up four runs in 5-2/3 innings, but he still maintains a 2-1 record with a 1.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
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Not only is he keeping the opposition from scoring and hitting with his .232 BAA, but he’s mowing them down via the strikeout. In 25-1/3 innings he has registered 29 strikeouts for a 10.3 K/9 ratio.
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Obviously with the success he’s had so far he looks good no matter what. He hasn’t allowed a run at home and has a solid 2.92 ERA on the road. He’s not getting dominated by right-handed hitters (.282, .744 OPS) and he’s absolutely destroying lefties (.196, .571).
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Paulino struggled with the Astros and the Rockies, but has found a home with the Royals. His ERA was north of 5.00 and WHIP north of 1.50 with Houston. He had a 7.36 ERA and 2.05 as a reliever with Colorado prior to coming over to Kansas City.
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That’s when he got on track. The Royals moved him back to a starter and he responded with a 4.11 ERA and 1.37 ERA in 124-2/3 innings. The success has clearly carried over this year.
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He is currently owned in about ten percent of fantasy leagues. He has some extra value because he qualifies at RP and SP. I don’t think he can continue on his current pace, but even if he slips to his 2011 numbers with Kansas City there is some fantasy value there.
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Also check out:

• Should You Consider Brian Dozier?
• Fantasy Feast Closer Report – 5/21/12
• Is Elliot Johnson a Short-term Fix?
• Christian Friedrich Off to a Sizzling Start
• Why Are People Lukewarm on Jonathan Lucroy?

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Philip Humber vs. Minnesota Twins
The last time I streamed him he threw a Perfect Game. While I don’t expect perfection, I do think he can build on the 2.08 ERA he’s posted in his past two starts going up against the Twins at home.
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Season Totals: 22-15,  296-2/3 IP, 216 Ks, 3.64 ERA (120 earned runs), 1.20 WHIP (257 hits, 100 walks)

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Jonathon Niese vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Niese got bombed his last time out, but he only surrendered two runs over 11 in his previous two outings. His ERA was 3.40 before getting rocked for eight runs in three innings. He is 1-0 with a 2.45 against the Pirates.
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Season Totals: 21-15,  289 IP, 211Ks, 3.71 ERA (119 earned runs), 1.21 WHIP (252 hits, 98 walks)

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I know the Minnesota Twins don’t exactly inspire confidence in fantasy circle as baseball’s worse team. Even fantasy staples Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau aren’t performing at the levels you’d expect. The only player to truly deliver this year has been Josh Willingham.
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Suddenly there is another player that is producing above expectations. That player is shortstop Brian Dozier. He is riding a six-game hitting streak that saw his average jump from .242 to .279. In fact, he has had a hit in eight of his last nine games and eleven of fourteen overall.
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The rookie has not been overwhelmed in his first taste of the bigs, sporting a .279-8-2-8-0 line in 61 at bats. He’s been decent against left-handed pitching (.250 vs. .292 against righties) and on the road (.263 vs. .297 at home).
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Dozier had exceeded at every step along the way. He dominated at Southern Miss, hitting .355 with a .917 OPS over his four years. He then hit .305 in his 1329 Minor League at bats with a .795 OPS.
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He really set the stage last year when he hit .318 with a .885 OPS for Double-A New Britain, along with flashing some speed with 11 stolen bases in 311 at bats.
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Dozier had been solid for Triple-A Rochester prior to his call-up hitting .276 with a .716 OPS, which is nearly identical to what he’s produced for the big league club.
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Dozier is owned in less than five percent of fantasy leagues. If he can continue to produce for the Twins, he’s a nice low-end option for deeper leagues.
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Also check out:

• Fantasy Feast Closer Report – 5/21/12
• Is Elliot Johnson a Short-term Fix?
• Christian Friedrich Off to a Sizzling Start
• Why Are People Lukewarm on Jonathan Lucroy?
• Should You Buy Low on Matt Moore?