LestersLegends.com

Written by Alex Woods
BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

As we creep closer to the February 18th NBA trade deadline you will begin to hear more and more players rumored to be on the verge of getting traded.  Often a trade will have a significant impact on the player that has been moved.  It is very common for a player to become super productive or vice-versa in his new home.  This article will explore if it is possible at all to predict what type of shift in production we can expect as the result of a trade.

Lets take a hypothetical, yet highly likely situation: The news is in Tyrus Thomas has been traded.  The question now is do you rush out and look to acquire him at all costs? This article will explore using a number of advanced statistics from hoopdata.com to evaluate how a player will fit in to his new home.

We have worked out a very simple methodology that will allow you to quickly evaluate the potential impact from the player in questions move.   Hoopdata.com calculates a number of statistics around most of the major statistical categories.  The metrics we recommend for evaluating player potential are highlighted in the table below:

Table 1. – Describes Advanced Basketball Statistics For Evaluating Trade Impact

Once a trade has been announced the methodology for evaluating potential is fairly simple.  Essentially take a look at the team the player of interest is headed to and see if there are any players who dominate any of the statistics listed in the table above.

For example, if Tyrus Thomas is traded to the Washington Wizards we would immediately see if any of the remaining Wizards dominate one of the metrics above. For example, is there a player who is grabbing the majority of the teams rebounds when he is on the court as evidenced by the TRR metric? If so, this would be a negative on Tyrus Thomas’s potential future output.

Next, we would take a look at Ty Thomas’s strengths.  His TRR is about 16, which is significantly higher than the league average of 9.9.  That means Ty Thomas grabs 16% of all rebounds in play when he is on the court.  If there was not a remaining player on the Wizards with a high TRR we would make the conclusion that Ty Thomas could step right in and see some upside to his rebounding numbers.

For scoring upside we recommend using the effective field goal percentage metric.  This will tell you if the player is taking (and making) a lot of bad shots or not.  (See recent BCRT fantasy basketball strategy series article: Fantasy Basketball Metrics: Effective Field Goal Percentage – A Tool to Identify Breakout/Underperformers)   This metric can be highly useful to identify players who are taking good shots and have the potential to see an increase in scoring with a change to the right environment.  It is probably useful to check the team EFG% and see if the team as a whole is disciplined and good at getting good shots.  A player traded to a wild west offensive with a low EFG% may fall into bad habits and actually see his scoring numbers and percentages decrease.

Thus far the methodology presented is pretty straightforward for most of the offensive statistics.  However for defensive statistics there is a twist.  Since a player’s defensive statistics are largely influenced by the atmosphere of the team he is playing on we suggest going to the team metrics and using the DEFR rating.  Essentially, this metric will tell you how many defensive plays a team is making on average per game.  If the number is high, you can assume the team is committed to playing defense and your player will see a boost across his defensive statistics as well.

This article has introduced a number of new fantasy basketball metrics.  While there are a number of different applications, we have focused specifically on using them to evaluate player upside after a trade has taken place.  Good luck and get ready for some big transactions!

Read More Fantasy Basketball News, Strategy & Advice at BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.

Brian of EmptyTheBench.com was responsible for this week’s Fantasy Hoops Roundtable debate topic.

Click here to see the full article.

This Week’s Topic:
Which NBA team do you feel is least fantasy hoops friendly as a whole? Please explain why.

My Response:
The team I feel is the least conducive to fantasy success is the Cleveland Cavaliers. I know they have LeBron James, but his rebounding ability steals from their bigs and his passing ability steals from their guards. After King James the pickings are slim.

Mo Williams is solid, but he’s probably in the bottom third of NBA #2 men. They have a trio of big men in Shaq, Big Z, and Varejao that somewhat cancel each other out. They don’t have a true point guard and their wing players are below average. 

***Update: Mo Williams out a month (click to see the next course of action).

It gets even worse when you look at the other side of the ball. As of Friday, January 15th they are #3 in scoring defense allowing just 94.3 points per game. They allowed 100+ points in just 11 of their first 41 games (26.8 percent). They also lead the league with lowest field goal percentage allowed at .434. Plus, they are eighth in the league with three-point percentage allowed at .338.

Panelists
Brian of EmptyTheBench.com
Ryan Lester of LestersLegends.com
Alex/Mike of BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com
Erik of PointsInThePaint.com
Nels of GiveMeTheRock.com
Tommy of HoopsWorld.com

Written by Alex Woods
BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

Balance is the key to winning a fantasy basketball championship.  While it is entirely feasible to win by punting a category your best shot is to take a balanced approach by assembling a team that is competitive across all categories.

In a previous article from our BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Fantasy Basketball Strategy Series (Unlocking Player Performance – FSPI) we explored a metric called Fantasy Sports Performance Index (FSPI) from NBA.com.  The metric is a useful way to evaluate player potential as well as balance your lineup.

The issue with using FSPI to identify the statistical shortcomings of your team is that it can be tedious to assemble and maintain a spreadsheet that summarizes your team and each player’s associated FSPI.

This is where the BasketballMonster.com Team Analysis Tool comes into play.  After entering your team into a web form all you have to do is push a button and you are presented with a color-coded table showing your team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Using the Team Analysis Tool’s output one can quickly see where it makes sense to target trades.  Obviously if your team is heavily weighted in one category (indicated by green boxes) and light in another category (indicated by red boxes) it makes sense to go out and start looking to make a trade.

The Team Analysis Tool can also be used to guide your waiver wire acquisitions.  Look for borderline players on your team that hurting you more than helping you and replace them with free agents who can help balance your team.

Below is a screen shot of the Team Analysis Tool output for my team.  Looking at the analysis I can easily see that my team is light on blocks and free throw percentage.  I am also positioned nicely in assists.  From these results it is clear that I should look to trade Rondo and Scola who hurt me in free throw percentage and blocked shots for a player that can help in those categories.

When offering trades do not forget the previous BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Fantasy Basketball Strategy series article: Fantasy Basketball: Its All About 2 for 1.  The output from the Team Analysis tool should give you all the information you need to offer and pull off a 2 for 1 deal.

Hopefully the BasketballMonster.com Team Analysis can help you to better understand your team.  The output is very valuable in that it can very clearly highlight your teams strengths and weaknesses.  When used correctly it can help you to optimize your lineup and give you a competitive advantage over your fellow fantasy basketball managers.

Read More Fantasy Basketball News, Strategy & Advice at BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

Time for another fantasy basketball roundtable.

Mike of BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com was responsible for this week’s Fantasy Hoops Roundtable debate topic.

Click here to see the full article.

This Week’s Topic:
Is it worth it to play match-ups in Rotisserie style fantasy basketball leagues?

My Response:
I think it’s more of a factor in daily transaction leagues than weekly lineup leagues since both the favorable and unfavorable match-ups are likely to balance out when you look at a weekly schedule.

It is also more of a factor in capped daily transaction leagues. If there is no limit to the number or players you can use in a give week, then odds are you won’t have many decisions to make whether to sit or start someone. If you are worried about field goal percentage, free throw percentage, or turnovers you may sit a guy, but for the most part you try to play as many guys as you can in a given week.

In capped weekly transaction leagues, where you have a set amount of starts per week, this really becomes important. You’ll start your top performers regardless of the match-up. The best players have a tendency or rising to the occasion. Once you figure out how many games you have remaining, you then look at the match-ups or your borderline players. Not only should you consider who your players are facing, you should evaluate your opponents’ strengths and weaknesses and set your lineup accordingly.

Plain and simple, it is an important factor, but one of many when you set your fantasy lineup.

Panelists
Brian of EmptyTheBench.com
Ryan Lester of LestersLegends.com
Alex/Mike of BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com
Erik of PointsInThePaint.com
Nels of GiveMeTheRock.com
Tommy of HoopsWorld.com

Written by Alex Woods
BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

Fantasy Basketball really is a very different animal than Fantasy Baseball or Fantasy Football. Unlike football and basketball where there is an extreme talent cliff, you can usually find players who can contribute in a category in which you need help on your fantasy basketball waiver wire. This article will explore the 2 for 1 trading strategy and how it can be exploited in shallower fantasy basketball leagues to provide an edge.

It is an established fact that the talent cliff in fantasy basketball occurs much earlier than in any other sport. There are only a handful of NBA players that can contribute in multiple categories while not hurting you in another. After these players come off the draft board you are really drafting specialists to fill needs on your team. Moreover, in all but the deepest leagues you can almost certainly find a player in the waiver pool who will address one of your team’s deficiencies. However, few fantasy basketball owners seem to be aware of this fact. The goal then is to exploit it. The more top talent your team can acquire, the better your chances of winning. Don’t be afraid to trade away a hot player with a weakness for one of the NBA’s elite.

The best way to target an elite player for trade is via the 2 for 1 trade package. The best players are those who contribute in multiple categories without killing you in another. The 2 for 1 package can be delivered in many forms. It can be a straight up you unbalanced where you offer two players for the other teams star, or it could come disguised; meaning that you include in the package a player from the other team of sub par talent that you really have no intention of keeping.

If your league is competitive, owners should be on to the 2 for 1 strategy and it will be very difficult to pull off. However, that should not stop you from trying. In fact, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk recommends that you always have at least one 2 for 1 trade package on the table. Furthermore, stay away from straight up 2 for 1 trade proposals, it is best to disguise your offer into a traditional 2 for 2 offer as it seems less likely that you are trying to conduct a grand theft basketball move.

There is one outlier scenario to note. In deeper leagues, the 2 for 1 is not overly advantageous and should used with caution. The reason is that in a deeper leagues the free agent talent pool can be extremely thin. The whole premise of the 2 for 1 is that you can successful pull from the waiver wire a player to address deficits in a given a category. If that option is not present the 2 for 1 strategy can backfire as you are unable to make up for the categories that the star player cannot contribute.

So there you have it, the 2 for 1 trade package is a great way to bolster your team in midsize leagues. Remember, there are only a handful of the leagues elite, don’t become to attached to your mid-tier players who have a weakness. Package them up, move em, and hit the waiver the wire to fill the gap. Now get to it and propose a few disguised 2 for 1 trade packages!

Read More Fantasy Basketball News, Strategy & Advice at BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

By Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

This article will explore how important match ups are in fantasy basketball. We all know fantasy football is game that is very dependent on defensive match ups so we wanted to see if defensive match ups were also a factor in fantasy basketball. In particular we wanted to focus our analysis on the impact of superior interior defense on the low post offense. To do this we examined average post player performance versus the leagues premier interior defenses.

A quick survey of the league indicates that only Boston, LA, Denver and San Antonio have the type of interior defense that one might want to shy away from. Boston has the combination of Garnett, Sheed, and Kendrick Perkins which is probably the best the league has to offer. All three are just about 7 feet tall and Garnett is former defensive player of the year. The Lakers are also a team of above average size. Between Gasol, Byum, Odom, and Artest, the Lakers have one of the best interior defenses in the Western Conference. Denver is the one Western Conference team that could challenge for that title with Nene, Birdman and Kenyon Martin combining like Megatron to have the Nuggets blocking shots into the upper decks. Finally, any discussion around interior defense cannot neglect the San Antonio Spurs who always bring it defensively. Duncan and McDysess are two old school defensive OGs who along with the excellent help-side defense of their teammates can really shut down the oppositions post game.

Lets dig right into some numbers. Table 1 shows the average point and rebound differential for NBA teams post players going against the four superior defensive teams used in our data set. In aggregate, post players can expect a dip in scoring (-3.07ppg) and rebounding (-0.71rpg) when going against the leagues top defenses. While these results are not large deviations from a given post players season average, the take away message is that you should not expect the monster game that will increase your season average when going against an elite defense.

A few more interesting things come out of this analysis. First, the impact of a superior post defense has a more profound effect on scoring than rebounding. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that while we have qualitatively identified 4 superior defensive teams it appears that Boston and Denver seem to be a tier above the San Antonio and LA defenses. In fact, if you remove SA and LA then the avg point and rebound differentials become -6 ppg and close to -1 rpg.

Table 1.

So the question remains, should you bench players based on defensive math ups. We will stick to the same recommendation that we made for football. Never bench your star players, but use defensive match ups as go/no-go decision metric for playing mid-tier players or inconsistent players.

So there you have it, defensive match ups do play a role in fantasy basketball, at least from the post players perspective. While the differentials are not drastic, they do support the fact your mid-tier players less likely to over perform against a superior defense. Luckily for you the NBA has largely become a guards game and there only a handful of defenses with sufficient personnel to create match up problems is the low post.

Read More Fantasy Basketball News, Strategy & Advice at BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

By Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

Of all fantasy sports the fantasy basketball draft is probably more important than any other fantasy sports draft to get right.  While you can always find talent in the middle rounds of a fantasy baseball draft, and football is filled with players who come out of nowhere to contribute, basketball has an enormous talent cliff after the top players come off the board.  There are simply not many players that can contribute across multiple categories in fantasy basketball without hurting you in another.   This article will explore which categories are most important to fantasy basketball success and which position is most important to address.

An analysis done by FantasyPros911.com reveals that the top 10 assists leaders provide 20% of the total assists from the top 100 players.  In comparison to rebounding and scoring, the top 10 players contributed 15% and 14% respectively.   What this confirms is that scoring and rebounding are easier to find on the waiver wire than assists.  Their analysis also revealed that steals trended similar to that of assists.  It should be no surprise that assists and steals come primarily from the point guard position.  So, if assists and steals are the scarcest statistics, and those stats come primarily from point guards we are going to make the conclusion that point guard is the most important fantasy basketball position to address.

Further supporting the scarcity claim is the final rankings from the 2008-2009 fantasy basketball season.  Looking at the top 25 players at the end of the season as ranked by Yahoo Sports, 10 of the 25 players qualified at point guard! The combination of the scarcity analysis and the fact that 40% of the top 25 players from last year qualified as point guards all confirm that the PG position is the most valuable position to address in fantasy basketball.

Read More Fantasy Basketball News, Strategy & Advice at BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com