The Football Fan Spot invited me to participate in an Expert Mock Draft with the following participants:

 

The Football Fan Spot
Fantasy Daddy
BeastOrBust
Lester’s Legends
Rotoprofessor
Walterfootball
FFToolbox
The Football Expert
Scardraft
The Sports Bank
Fantasy Pros 911
Draft Zoo

 

I landed the  first overall pick in the draft.

 


Fourth Round Pick
:  Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals
Ocho bounced back last year and I think he’s motivated to play well so he can stay in the limelight. T.O.’s arrival could take some of his production, but this is still a guy who is capable of 1200 receiving yards and 8 TDs.

 

Roster:
RB1  Adrian Peterson
RB2:  Ryan Mathews
WR1:  Brandon Marshall
WR2:  Chad Ochocinco

The Football Fan Spot invited me to participate in an Expert Mock Draft with the following participants:

The Football Fan Spot
Fantasy Daddy
BeastOrBust
Lester’s Legends
Rotoprofessor
Walterfootball
FFToolbox
The Football Expert
Scardraft
The Sports Bank
Fantasy Pros 911
Draft Zoo

I landed the  first overall pick in the draft.


Third Round Pick
:  Ryan Mathews
Mathews is stepping into a perfect situation. He will get the bulk of the carries in a potent offense. He should get most of the carries at the stripe.

Roster:
RB1  Adrian Peterson
RB2:  Ryan Mathews
WR2  Brandon Marshall

The Football Fan Spot invited me to participate in an Expert Mock Draft with the following participants:

The Football Fan Spot
Fantasy Daddy
BeastOrBust
Lester’s Legends
Rotoprofessor
Walterfootball
FFToolbox
The Football Expert
Scardraft
The Sports Bank
Fantasy Pros 911
Draft Zoo

I landed the  first overall pick in the draft.


Second Round Pick
:  Brandon Marshall
Brandon Marshall didn’t skip a beat when he went from Cutler to Orton or from Shanahan to McDaniels. Sure, he’s a bit of a pain, but the dude can flat out play football. He’s a virtual lock for 100 catches, and even though this isn’t a PPR league, securing a premier WR here is the direction I’m going in.

Roster:
RB1  Adrian Peterson
WR2  Brandon Marshall

The Football Fan Spot invited me to participate in an Expert Mock Draft with the following participants:

 

The Football Fan Spot
Fantasy Daddy
BeastOrBust
Lester’s Legends
Rotoprofessor
Walterfootball
FFToolbox
The Football Expert
Scardraft
The Sports Bank
Fantasy Pros 911
Draft Zoo

 

I landed the  first overall pick in the draft.

 


First Round Pick
:  Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

 

I believe Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew are pretty much on the sane level. I expect Chris Johnson to see a decrease in his workload after such a heavy one last year. MJD proved he could be the feature back, but doesn’t get enough help. Meanwhile, Peterson had a monster year despite Favre & Co. taking the lead role in the offense. I think the Vikes run more and pass less this year, which should be huge for All Day.

 

Yesterday I posted my first round mock for non-PPR leagues. Today I tackle the first round for PPR leagues.

 

1. Maurice Jones-Drew – I have him as my #2 in non-PPR leagues and his receiving ability is enough to put MoJo over the top. Not only is he a TD machine, he’s good for 40-60 receptions every year.

 

2.  Adrian Peterson – I’m just reversing the order moving All Day to #2. Not only did he catch a career high 43 passes last year, but Chester Taylor moved on to Chicago meaning that number could increase again.

 

3.  Chris Johnson – For the time being Johnson will stay at #3 in the ppr format as well. He has 93 catches in two seasons, not to mention the 2000 yard season, nearly 4000 total yards, and 26 total TDs. His biggest concern is the threat of a holdout.

 

4.  Frank Gore – Gore is an explosive back that is a nightmare both running and catching the ball out of the backfield. The Niners are committed to the offense, adding a tackle and a guard in the first round of this year’s draft.

 

5.  Steven Jackson – Jackson could lead all RBs in catches with rookie QB Sam Bradford using him as a safety net. He could approach 2000+ total yards. If he can find the end zone, he could climb even further up the list.

 

6.  Ray Rice – Rice is another good bet to lead RBs in receptions. He is very elusive. If it weren’t for Willis McGahee stealing looks at the goal line, he could be be a top three back.

 

7.  Andre Johnson – Johnson will likely catch 100 passes for 1500 yards and eight TDs. That’s a heck of a foundation for a team.

 

8.  Michael Turner – So he doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield. What he does do, though, is score TDs. He has 27 TDs in 27 games for the Falcons.

 

9.  Larry Fitzgerald – It’s a little worrisome that Matt Leinart is replacing Kurt Warner, but Fitz is truly a special athlete. He has great hands, leaping ability, and body control. He may not reach the 1400 yards and 10 TDs you’ve come to expect over the years, but he’ll still be highly productive.

 

10.  Reggie Wayne – Even when players emerge around him, he still manages to catch 100 balls for 1264 yards and 10 TDs. With Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and others  in the mix, it will be hard to double Wayne. He’ll chew up single-coverage.

 

11.   Brandon Marshall – Marshall has caught 100+ passes the last three years, and actually has an upgrade at QB (Henne) over last year (Orton). Hopefully his new home in Miami will keep him focused on football and away from the sideshow antics.

 

12.  Aaron Rodgers – Even in a PPR league, there is something to be said of a QB with Rodgers’ skill level, a ton of weapons, a good system, and the ability to provide bonus points with his feet.

 

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Click here to enter the Best Fantasy Football Team Name Contest for a chance to win some fabulous prizes.

 

It’s time for my first look at first round selections for fantasy football non-PPR 12-team drafts. Click here for my PPR league first round mock draft.

 

1.  Adrian Peterson – Will the fumbling issue continue to pop up? I say no. Sure, he’ll put the ball on the carpet a time or two, but that happens when you run as violently as All Day does. Judging by the way Peterson improved his receiving ability last year, I think he will have improved ball control this year. I also think Favre and the Vikings won’t be as pass-happy in 2010.

 

2.  Maurice Jones-Drew – The human bowling ball had no problems taking on a larger role in the offense. He is a virtual lock for 1500+ total yards and 12 TDs.

 

3.  Chris Johnson – I think the threat of a holdout is real. The longer it drags on into the summer, the further down the list Johnson will slide. More often than not players that holdout see their production suffer. Even if he and the Titans get on the same page, I’m expecting fewer touches. He was simply overused last year.

 

4. Michael Turner – Turner has to stay healthy, and Atlanta has to prove smarter than last year by letting his injury heal rather than rush him back. When he does play, he is a beast. He could easily lead all RBs in rushing TDs.

 

5. Frank Gore – There was some speculation that the Niners would add C.J. Spiller in the 2010 NFL Draft. Not only did they not take Spiller, they added two first round offensive lineman in Tackle Anthony Davis and Guard Mike Iupati. You have to like that commitment to the offense. With Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree keeping defenses honest, Gore could turn in a monster season.

 

6.  Steven Jackson – Jackson is as tough a runner as there is in the NFL. I gained so much respect for him the way he kept hammering away even though his team was miserable. There will be some growing pains with a rookie QB (Sam Bradford) under center, but that could just mean more check down looks for S-Jax.

 

7.  Andre Johnson – Aside from being kept in check by Darrelle Revis in the season opener (4 catches, 35 yards), AJ averaged 102.5 yards per game with 9 TDs. He is simply a nightmare to cover as he can beat you with his size and his speed.

 

8.  Ray Rice - Speaking of nightmares, imagine Ray Rice in the open field. I contemplated putting him at number seven, but I think Anquan Boldin’s arrival will reduce Rice’s touches just enough to put him below AJ. This is not a knock on Rice. I’d love to have him as my RB1.

 

9.  Aaron Rodgers – The NFL has gone the way of the pass. Fantasy still heavily rewards the run, at least in non-ppr leagues. Rodgers gives you the best of both worlds producing with his arm and his feet.

 

10.  Drew Brees – The sun will come up. Water will flow down stream.  Lindsey Lohan will find trouble. There are a few certainties in life. Drew Brees putting up monster numbers has become one of them.

 

11.  Peyton Manning – Manning is as consistent as Brees with a longer track record. His team usually has things wrapped up so early that he coasts when you need him the most.

 

12.  Ryan Grant – Grant quietly has produced back-to-back 1200 yard seasons. The passing game is so strong that it’s hard to keep Grant down. His 11 TDs last year further cement him as a first round pick in my eyes.

 

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knowshon-moreno
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Knowshon Moreno finally came to terms with the Denver Broncos.  Thankfully his holdout didn’t extend too far into Training Camp for Moreno to have a major setback.  He obviously won’t start the first couple of preseason games, but he should be able to get plenty of opportunities to compete for the starting Tailback gig.

Moreno was selected with the 12th pick in the NFL Draft, which is significant considering the shape their Defense was in last year.  He has the strength to run between the tackles, the speed to get outside, and the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  He’ll have to show he can pick up the blitz and he could be a three-down back eventually.  He’ll be pushed by fellow newcomer Correll Buckhalter, but Buck has been an career backup with a history of knee injuries, so I wouldn’t count on him to have too heavy of a workload.

Playing in the AFC West, Denver has some nice matchups.  They face Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland to start the season, so it’s important he win the starting job by then.  He has another nice three game stretch starting in Week 13 when the Broncos face the Chiefs, and going into the fantasy playoffs when they face Indianapolis and Oakland again.  It’s not all a walk in the park though as Denver takes on New England (Week 4), Baltimore (Week 8), Pittsburgh (Week 9), Washington (Week 10), New York Giants (Week 12), and Philadelphia (Week 16).

If you’ve drafted already, perhaps you were able to sneak him a little later, but now that he’s signed he’ll likely go in the third or fourth round of fantasy drafts.  I’m expecting 1200 total yards and 8 TDs with 45 receptions.

Beanie Wells
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Hopefully Beanie Wells’ ankle injury isn’t a sign of things to come for this talented back.  Not that I’m comparing him to Adrian Peterson, but they were both talented backs with injury history in college.  While Beanie will never reach the ceiling that All Day is setting, he could be a very solid back, especially with the pressure that their passing game puts on defenses.  The Cardinals were miserable in that department last year with Edgerrin James losing a step and Tim Hightower lacking explosiveness.  The addition of Beanie Wells should change that, should he stay healthy.  Before you start moving him too far up your draft board, remember that Tim Hightower was fairly effective in short yardage situations, and that the Cardinals will likely utilize him in that role to minimize the beating that Beanie takes.

The Cardinals have a fairly difficult regular season schedule with St. Louis (Week 11) looking like the only cream puff.  Where the Cardinals players are most valuable is the fantasy playoffs as they square off with San Franciso, Detroit, and St. Louis.  If Beanie can stay healthy I’m putting him on a 1150 total yard, 7 TD season.

Pierre Thomas running

Pierre Thomas has been a trendy pick in fantasy football leagues this year.  The hype train has finally let Reggie Bush off.  Pierre Thomas is the more complete Running Back and will take the lion’s share of the carries as well as the goal line duties.  He has bulked up to handle the beating that 100+ additional carries will bring.  He gave a glimpse of what he can do with regular touches last year in Weeks 11-16 when he averaged 112.83 yards (79.16 rushing) on 15.5 carries and 3.2 receptions with 9 TDs.  Reggie will still get his touches, but Pierre is clearly the feature back.

Reggie Bush Leaping
That doesn’t mean that Reggie Bush should be an afterthought.  If he can stay healthy, he is still one of the most explosive players in the league.  He will likely have more receiving yards than rushing yards.  He should have 70+ receptions to lead all Running Backs.  He will add a Punt Return for TD if he is given the opportunity, though at this point I would take that duty away for his health’s sake. 

In an offense like the Saints have matchups are almost irrelevant, but I’ll point out his favorable matchups against Detroit (Week 1) and St. Louis (Week 10) and his challenging ones against Philly (Week 2), the Giants (Week 6), Carolina (Week 9), New England (Week 12), and Washington (Week 13).  Their fantasy playoff schedule is Atlanta, Dallas, and Tampa Bay, which is fairly difficult.

Pierre Thomas will likely go in the second or third round in your fantasy draft.  I expect him to be very productive with 1400+ total yards and 10+ TDs.  Meanwhile, Reggie Bush should have around 1100 total yards (400 rushing, 700 receiving) with 8 total TDs.  Bush will be drafted in the third or fourth round, with a significant bump in PPR leagues.

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Marshawn Lynch tackled
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Well, Marshawn Lynch’s three-games suspension was upheld so you’re looking at 12 games of fantasy production from Beast Mode.  The good news is he’ll be there at the end of the season when it counts the most.  The suspension should drop him in drafts to at least the third round so he could end up being a great value.  There are some major concerns with Lynch though, other than the suspension.  The offseason addition of Dominic Rhodes means that the Bills will have three capable RBs, along with Fred Jackson.  While Lynch should remain the lead back, clearly the other two will cut into his production.  As long as he gets the ball at the stripe, he should be fine.  That’s where the other problem lies.  The Bills also added Terrell Owens, who puts up TDs in a hurry.  If Lynch is sharing his yardage with Jackson and Rhodes and TDs with T.O., that diminishes his fantasy value dramatically.

Lynch misses one of the Bills’ best matchups in Week 3 when they face New Orleans.  Playing in the AFC East he has a pretty tough schedule.  They also draw Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.  They open the fantasy playoffs with a favorable matchup against Kansas City, followed by New England and Atlanta.

The odds seem to be stacked against Lynch this year.  He’s missing three games, will share yards and TDs, and if he messes up one more time, he’ll be done for the year.  Plus, if Buffalo is successful without him, they may ease him back to the rotation slowly.  He’s a tough one to put numbers to, but I’m guessing he has 1000 total yards and 6 TDs.


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