Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on match-ups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one match-ups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the Super Bowl I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Vince Young over Donovan McNabb:  Loser VY2.55, McNabb 10.5
Frank Gore over Adrian Peterson:  Loser Gore 1.5, AP 2.2
Steve Smith over Vincent Jackson:  Loser Smith 10.8, V-Jax 18.2
Pro Bowl Picks:  0-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  6-5
Pro Bowl Picks:  0-3
Overall: 55-60-1


Super Bowl XLIV Picks

Drew Brees profile
Peyton Manning over Drew Brees +2
There isn’t much separating these two franchise QBs. I’m choosing the Colts to win the game, and I think Manning will be the Super Bowl MVP. Brees should have a solid game as well, but even with two spotted points, I think Manning comes out victorious.


Donald Brown over Reggie Bush
Both are secondary options in the running game, but I believe Brown will be more productive. I expect him to get plenty of touches towards the end of the game as Indianapolis wraps up another Super Bowl victory.

Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon over Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, and David Thomas
I’m mixing it up by taking the Colts’ WR triplets over the Saints triplets and their top two tight ends. The Saints WRs combined for 2705 yards and 21 TDs during the regular season while the Saints quintet combined for 3525 yards and 24 TDs. Even without putting Dallas Clark into the equation, I’m banking on the Colts’ wides.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on match-ups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one match-ups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the Pro Bowl I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Brett Favre over Peyton Manning +2:  Loser Favre 19.5, Manning 32.85 (30.85 actual +2)
Shonn Greene over Joseph Addai +1:  Loser Greene 4.1, Addai 10.3 (9.3 actual +1)
Austin Collie over Reggie Wayne:  Winner Collie 18.3, Wayne 5.5
Conference Finals Picks:  1-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  6-5
Overall: 55-57-1

Pro Bowl Picks


Vince Young over Donovan McNabb

The Pro Bowl seems like an ideal place for an athlete like VY to showcase his skills. There will be minimal defense played and look for VY’s revival to continue. McNabb is the elder statesmen of the NFC quarterbacks so I expect him to take a back seat.


Frank Gore over Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson is coming off a brutal loss to the Saints that saw him put the ball on the carpet multiple times. I think he’s there for the festivities, and as an ambassador to the game, but not to get a bunch of carries. Meanwhile, I think Frank Gore puts on a show for his home crowd.


Steve Smith over Vincent Jackson

This has more to do with the Quarterbacks that these WRs will be playing with than their abilities or match-ups. Once the starters (Matt Schaub and Aaron Rodgers) are out, Smith has a distinct advantage with McNabb and Romo over V-Jax with VY and David Garrard.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on match-ups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one match-ups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Kurt Warner over Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers (individually)
Warner:  10.25
Manning:  Loser  20.1
Rivers:  Loser 25.3
Felix Jones over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Winner Felix 9.1, LT 2.4
Marques Colston over Vincent Jackson +2 :  Winner Colston 14.3, V-Jax 13.1 (11.1 actual +2)
Divisional Round Picks:  2-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  5-3
Overall: 54-55-1

Conference Championship Picks

Brett Favre profile photo
Brett Favre over Peyton Manning +2
You have three elite QBs and Sanchez so it makes it difficult to do an out on a limb pick here. I’ll take Favre against the Saints and spot Peyton two points.

Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots
Shonn Greene over Joseph Addai +1
Greene has been running wild in the postseason, but he’s still not a sure thing. Joseph Addai gets it done on the ground and through the air, but the Jets have the best defense left in the field. I’ll spot Addai a point to make it more interesting.

Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots
Austin Collie over Reggie Wayne 
I respect Darrelle Revis enough that I’ll take Robin to outperform Batman this week. While Manning won’t completely shy away from Revis, he will be cautious when throwing at him.

Before we get started, check out my Divisional Round Rankings and Divisional Round Picks.

 

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer +2:  Loser Flacco 2.4, Palmer 13.5 (11.5 actual +2)
Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones +0.5:  Winner Benson 23.1, Jones 3.9 (3 actual +0.5)
Julian Edelman over Roy Williams and Chad Johnson (Individually)
Double Winner Edelman 16.4
Roy Williams 5.9
Chad Johnson 2.8
Wild Card Round Picks:  3-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:  3-1
Overall: 52-53-1

Divisional Round Picks


Kurt Warner over Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers (individually)
It’s hard to imagine Peyton being happy about drawing the Ravens, but very well could be given the alternative. The Jets are playing at a very high level defensively, and with their rushing attack, I’m not expecting a huge output by Rivers. While Manning dodges that Jets bullet, he does get to face an aggressive Baltimore team that forced more INTS (2) than TDs (1) when they squared off earlier in the year. I know the Saints are supposed to have a better defense this year, but they aren’t enough to slow Warner.


Felix Jones over LaDainian Tomlinson
Jones will be sharing the load with Marion Barber III, but Barber is banged up. LT will also be sharing the load with Darren Sproles. I’m going with Jones’ big play ability rather than LTs’ 3.3 yards per carry.


Marques Colston over Vincent Jackson +2
They both will square off against Pro Bowl Cornerbacks. Colston will see a lot of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, which should slow him, but V-Jax faces the league’s best CB in Darrelle Revis.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Jay Cutler over Tony Romo:  Winner Cutler 30.3, Romo 23.25
Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones:  Winner Moreno21.8, TJ 19.8
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 12.4, Ricky 3.5
Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco:  Winner Nate 8.3, Ocho 0.0
Steve Breaston over Miles Austin:  Loser Breaston 1.6, Austin 9.0
SS:
Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
Snelling:  Double Winner 16.8
Beanie:  1.9
Hightower:  2.8

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  2-0
Overall:  6-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 41-40-1
Super Stretch Picks:  8-12
Playoffs Picks:
Overall: 49-52-1

Wildcard Round Picks
Baltimore Ravens 2009 Football Headshots Carson Palmer
Joe Flacco over Carson Palmer +2
Though I expect Flacco to lose and Palmer to win this weekend, I still think Flacco has the better fantasy performance. The Jets are so tough against the pass and Ocho errr Chad Johnson is banged up. I’ll spot Palmer two points to make it a fairer fight.

Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots Thomas Jones
Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones +0.5
The running game is where I believe the Bengals will win this battle. I’ll spot Jones a half a point despite him having the better year.

Dallas Cowboys 2009 Football Headshots Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Julian Edelman over Roy Williams and Chad Johnson (Individually)
Edelman filled in admirably for Wes Welker last week and should be productive again this week against Baltimore. Roy Williams and Chad Johnson were both shutdown last week and I expect similar results this week against the Eagles and Jets respectively.

Happy Anniversary Mom & Dad!

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning:  Winner Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Loser Beanie15.3, LT 18.3
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson:  Incomplete Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2:  Ocho 8.9, Marshall (actual +2) 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek:  Loser Finley 8.0, Celek18.1
SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles:  Loser Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-39-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-12
Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17 Picks

Chicago Bears 2009 Football Headshots Tony Romo
Jay Cutler over Tony Romo

Cutler is coming off a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD to INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots Thomas Jones
Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones

I’m going with the Rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 match-up. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s 2nd ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

Matt Forte Ricky Williams
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams

It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg) while Ricky should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs.

Tennessee Titans 2009 Football Headshots Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots
Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco

Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn them deep. Meanwhile Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston profile Miles Austin profile
Steve Breaston over Miles Austin

Breaston faces Green Bay, who despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, have allowed 28 passing TDs. That ranks them 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

SUPER STRETCH
Jason Snelling profile Beanie Wells profile Tim Hightower profile
Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)

I suspect that Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) with 16 rushing TDs allowed. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s #1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre:  Winner Hasselbeck 17.1, Favre 11.2
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2:  Winner Charles 23.0, Mendenhall 19.1 (17.1 actual +2)

Arian Foster over Ryan Grant:  Loser Foster 2.0, Grant 9.7

Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson:  Loser Moss 13.0, DeSean 20.9

Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten:  Winner Finley 13.4, Witten 4.4
SS:  Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams:  Winner Ganther 10.0, D-Will 1.6

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks: 35-37-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-11
Overall: 41-48-1

Week 16 Picks

Alex Smith profile Peyton Manning
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning
I pair these former #1 picks that have had completely different paths to where they are today. Manning is having the second best season of his Hall of Fame career. Alex Smith is coming off a bad game against the Eagles, but has been very productive of late. Smith should absolutely pick apart the Lions this week. Meanwhile, there is debate as to how much Manning will play this week. Plus, the Jets defense is tough against the pass.

Beanie Wells profile Ladainian Tomlinson profile
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson
I pit a young, talented RB just kicking off his career against a Hall of Fame RB winding down his career. Both RBs have picked up steam as the season went on, but I feel it’s Beanie who will be more productive this week as he takes on St. Louis. LT goes up against Tennessee, who despite the recent injuries on defense, should put up more of a fight. That and they struggle defending the pass, which means Philip Rivers and Co. will be very busy.

Ryan Grant Profile Steven Jackson profile
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson
Grant is quietly putting together another solid year. He should go over 1200 yards, possibly this week as he takes on a Seattle team that’s going nowhere. December has been his best month as he has 8 TDs in 11 games, vs. 9 in the remaining 34. Jackson is gutting it out despite being all banged up. Jackson is playing on the road, where he averages 28.1 fewer total yards and has scored just one TD.

Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Football Headshots Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2
Marshall and Ocho have very similar numbers this year with Marshall having a slight edge. I believe that Ocho will score again this week to honor his fallen teammate. Marshall is playing in Philly so I’ll spot him 20 yards.

Jermichael Finley profile Brent Celek profile
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek
I’m going to ride Finley’s hot hand again as he takes on Seattle’s putrid pass defense. The Broncos are going to give the Eagles a fight, and I’m lowering my expectations on all of their offensive stars.

SUPER STRETCH
Jason Snelling profile Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots
Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles
Snelling should get to run as the lead back as the Falcons take on Buffalo’s league-worst run defense. Not only will he get the bulk of the carries between the 20′s, but will get the rock at the stripe. Charles has been amazing the second half of the season, but runs into a stingy Cincinnati run defense in what should be an emotional home game for the Bengals.

Before we get started, check out my Week 15 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Vince Young over Carson Palmer: Winner VY 15.0, Palmer 9.7
Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady:  Loser Big Ben 11.05, Brady 13.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton:  Loser Fitzpatrick 10.0, Orton 22.95
Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2:  Winner Charles 24.1, Forte 8.8 (6.8 actual +2)
Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant:  Loser Walter 1.7, Bryant 2.2
SS: Joe Flacco over Brett Favre:  Winner Flacco 15.7, Favre 14.4

Regular Picks:  2-3
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 32-35-1
Super Stretch Picks:  5-11
Overall: 37-46-1

Week 15 Picks
Matt Hasselbeck profile Brett Favre profile photo
Matt Hasselbeck over Brett Favre

I’m gonna pick on Favre again this week to make him prove the December thing is over. He’s averaging 197.4 yards, 1.1 TDs, and 1.6 INTs in his last ten December games. He faces a Carolina pass defense that is sixth in the league with 192.4 passing yards allowed and tied for third with 13 passing TDs allowed. Hasselbeck faces Tampa Bay, who ranks 28th with 24 passing TDs allowed.

Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots Rashard Mendenhall profile
Jamaal Charles over Rashard Mendenhall +2
Charles has been great for the Chiefs despite all of their inadequacies.Look for him to torch Cleveland’s 28th ranked run defense (148.1 ypg). They’re also 23rd with 14 rushing TDs allowed. I’ll spot Mendenhall 20 yards, but that still should not be enough against the stingy Packers run defense that’s allowed just 85.0 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

Houston Texans 2009 Football Headshots Ryan Grant Profile
Arian Foster over Ryan Grant
Foster is the latest Texan RB to take a crack at duplicating last year’s success. His path starts out smooth against St. Louis, who’s 27th in rushing yards allowed (147.2) and 31st in rushing TDs allowed (19). Grant is quietly putting together a nice season, but draws a tough match-up against Pittsburgh, who’s allowed 84.9 rushing yards per game and 4 rushing TDs.

D045594050.JPG DeSean Jackson
Randy Moss over DeSean Jackson
Most people wouldn’t touch Moss with a ten-foot pole in this match-up considering what went down last week. I’m from the camp that feels he’s respond to his critics with a big game. If you recall, the last time he faced the Bills he had 12 catches for 141 yards. The Patriots know they need Moss if they are going to challenge for another Super Bowl. Look for Brady to patch things up with his arm. San Francisco played inspired on Monday Night Football, and will try to bring that same energy to Philadelphia. The Niners give up yards in the air, but have only allowed 13 passing TDs, which ties them for third in the league.

Jermichael Finley profile Jason Witten profile
Jermichael Finley over Jason Witten
Finley’s size, speed, and athleticism make him a tough cover. Aaron Rodgers has been looking to him more in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is going to blitz Rodgers early and often so Finley could rack up the check-down looks. Jason Witten has played better of late, but draws a tough match-up against New Orleans.

SUPER STRETCH
Quinton Ganther profile DeAngelo Williams profile
Quinton Ganther over DeAngelo Williams
Ganther takes on the Giants, who are ranked 29th with 17 rushing TDs allowed. He also contributes in the passing game, which makes him a nice sneaky play. D-Will takes on the Vikings, who haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since 2007. They rank fourth in rushing yards per game (86.9) and are tied with New England for the fewest rushing TDs allowed (3). Carolina lost RT Jeff Otah for the year so they’ll have to take on the Vikings’ front four without either starting Tackle.

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks. Also check out this week’s Fourth & 1 Debate as we discuss unheralded players who will step in up this week (click here for the article).



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Philip Rivers over Drew Brees:  Loser Rivers 26.65, Brees 28.95
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 15.6 Ricky 8.1
Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant: Winner J-Stew 18.6, Grant 4.1
Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald:  Loser Maclin 8.3, Fitz 20.3
Austin Collie over Chris Chambers:  Winner Collie 7.8, Chambers 1.1
SS:
Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens:  Loser Thomas 2.5, T.O. 3.1

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 30-32-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-11
Overall: 34-43-1

Week 14 Picks

Quarterbacks
Vince Young Carson Palmer
Vince Young over Carson Palmer
VY is facing a St. Louis team that ranks 25th in total yards allowed (363.7) and 28th in points allowed per game (26.2). They are actually middle of the road in passing yards allowed per game (217.5), but VY is a unique athlete that can contribute with both his arm and his feet. I just don’t see the Rams containing him. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer takes on the Vikings, who are coming off a bad loss, on the road. Jared Allen failed to record even a tackle last week so you just know he’ll be looking for redemption. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Ben Roethlisberger Tom Brady headshot
Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady

This is a battle of multiple Super Bowl winners that find their teams in a free fall. I think they’ll both win this week, but I like Big Ben to put up better fantasy numbers. Big Ben plays Cleveland’s 26th ranked pass defense (246.1) The Browns have allowed 18 passing TDs on the year. Brady faces Carolina, who ranks 6th in passing yards allowed (192.4) and 5th in passing TDs allowed (12).

Buffalo Bills 2009 Football Headshots Denver Broncos 2009 Football Headshots
Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton

Fitzpatrick has looked good at times.He as least has shown the ability to get the ball to T.O. and Lee Evans. He has a favorable match-up this week against Kansas City who ranks 28th with 250.6 passing yards allowed and 24th with passing TDs allowed (21). Orton takes on the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts rank 4th with 11 passing TDs allowed.

Running Back
Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Football Headshots Matt Forte
Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2

Who would have guessed coming into the year that I’d be spotting Matt Forte 20 yards in a head-to-head match-up with Jamaal Charles? Charles has averaged nearly 100 total yards and a score the last four weeks and has a juicy match-up against Buffalo’s league worst run defense (172.1 ypg). Forte takes on Green Bay’s 4th ranked run defense (97.2). The Pack has allowed just 4 rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver
Kevin Walter profile Antonio Bryant
Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant

Walter has played decent over the last four games averaging five catches for 60 yards. He takes on Seattle who is 25th in passing yards allowed (243.5) and 28th in passing TD allowed (22). Bryant will have to deal with Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Have fun Antonio.

SUPER STRETCH
Baltimore Ravens 2009 Football Headshots Brett Favre profile photo
Joe Flacco over Brett Favre

Flacco hasn’t been nearly the same QB that he was earlier in the season. Things could change this week as he takes on Detroit’s league worst pass defense (274.8 yards, 28 TDs). Favre has struggled the past few seasons in December. He forced a couple of passes last week, which he’s avoided for most of the year. I’m afraid that he’s opened Pandora’s Box and he could do more of the same this week. He faces Cincinnati who ranks 12th in passing yards allowed (211.5), 8th in passing TDs allowed (13), and 6th in INTs (14).

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.



Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Rodgers 29.9
Brees Loser 39.45 (38.45 actual)
Brady
Winner 13.05 (12.05 actual)
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson: Loser Ricky 17.5, CJ 24.6
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai: Loser Snelling 3.3, Addai 8.2
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker: Tie Nate 4.6, Sims-Walker 4.6
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR): Winner Crab 5.4, Smith 0.5
SS: Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell: Loser Boller20.7, Campbell 25.75

Regular Picks: 2-3-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 2-4-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 27-30-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-10
Overall: 31-40-1

Week 13 Picks

Quarterback
Philip Rivers Drew Brees profile
Philip Rivers over Drew Brees
Brees is coming off a monster win against the Patriots in which he lit them up like a Christmas tree. He’s due for a bit of a letdown as he takes on Washington on the road. The Skins have actually been solid against the pass, although they did play some of the worst QBs earlier in the year. Rivers should have an absolute field day against the Brownies.

Running Backs
Matt Forte Ricky Williams
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
Forte should be able to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air against the lowly Saints. Meanwhile Ricky has to face New England following an embarrassing loss. They focus on shutting Ricky down as Henne can’t beat them.

Ryan Grant Profile
Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant
The Panthers best bet for winning is to pound to ball repeatedly with both J-Stew and D-Will. They should be able to do that with ease against Tampa Bay at home. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant faces Baltimore’s tough run defense.

Wide Receivers
Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Football Headshots
Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald
This match-up has concussion written all over it. Maclin should slide into the #1 role for the Eagles with DeSean Jackson likely to miss the game with a concussion. He should torch Atlanta. Meanwhile Fitz will likely have to deal with Matt Leinart again as Kurt Warner recovers from his concussion.

Indianapolis Colts 2009 Football Headshots Chris Chambers profile
Austin Collie over Chris Chambers

The last time the Colts played Tennessee scored a pair of TDs. It’s really pick-your-poison will all the weapons at Peyton Manning’s disposal. The Titans will key in on Wayne, Clark, and Addai, which should allow Collie to make some plays. Chambers has been great since coming over to Kansas City from San Diego. This week he faces Champ Bailey and their tough pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH
Jacksonville Jaguars 2009 Football Headshots Buffalo Bills 2009 Football Headshots
Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens
David Garrard is so much better playing at home. With this week’s game in Jacksonville Thomas has a chance to put up real solid numbers. Meanwhile T.O. will have to lock horns with Darrelle Revis and the Jets. He’s been in the business of shutting down #1 WRs, and this week should be no different.

Matt Forte

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