LestersLegends.com

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By Grant Miller
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For many fantasy football managers, Week 13 of the NFL season is not much different than most other weeks. Sure, some may be scrambling for a desperation win and hoping to grab that last playoff spot, while others have long ago thrown in the towel. But many of you attentive fantasy-footballers secured your playoff fate in Week 12 (or perhaps even earlier), and now you’re starting to think ahead. You’re beginning to ask yourself questions like, “What if Green Bay locks up home-field advantage before Week 16, and Rodgers only plays in the first half against Chicago?” On some level, this happens every year … and it never ceases to amaze me how quickly a fantasy team full of Pro-Bowlers can turn pedestrian in a week’s time.
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In the same vein, someone in the free agency pool always steps up, seemingly out of nowhere, with a dominant performance during the fantasy playoffs (see: Jerome Simpson, 2010; Jerome Harrison, 2009). Below are a few candidates that could potentially help fill a void or concern on your team during Weeks 14 thru 16. Format includes player, team, Yahoo owned %, and weeks recommended.
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These suggestions are intended for deeper leagues (12+ teams); most of these players are owned in less than 25% of Yahoo leagues. Run/pass defensive ranks are based on fantasy points allowed in standard scoring formats. Best of luck to you in making the right decisions for your playoff-bound teams.
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Quarterbacks
Rex Grossman, WAS, 10%, Weeks 14, 15, 16
Opponents: Week 14 vs NE (31st pass); Week 15 @ NYG (19th pass); Week 16 vs MIN (32nd pass)
I hate to lead off by recommending Grossman, but he’s put up decent numbers over the last two games against decent defenses (292/3/1 vs DAL, 314/2/2 @ SEA). As you can see, the upcoming schedule is about as soft as it gets. Now that he’s got Moss back, low-QB1 numbers in any of the matchups above should be expected.
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Matt Moore, MIA, 14%, Weeks 14, 15, 16
Opponents: Week 14 vs PHI (27th pass); Week 15 @ BUF (25th pass); Week 16 @ NE (31st pass)
Moore has been somewhat inconsistent (as you might expect), but the upcoming schedule speaks for itself. He put up 160/3/0 against Buffalo in Week 11. The biggest X-factor here is I’m not sure how the cold weather will affect him … although he did play college ball at Oregon State, so there’s that.
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Running Backs
Maurice Morris, DET, 37%, Weeks 14, 15, 16
Opponents: Week 14 vs MIN (10th run, 32nd pass); Week 15 @ OAK (27th run, 23rd pass); Week 16 vs SD (22nd run, 18th pass)
My recommendation of Morris is based primarily on the pass defenses of upcoming opponents. He had 9 catches and 120 total yards against Green Bay last week. Morris’ numbers will certainly be dependent on the health of Kevin Smith, but I’m betting Smith will continue to deal with the high-ankle sprain for the rest of the season.
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Javon Ringer, TEN, 14%, Week 15
Opponents: Week 15 @ IND (32nd run)
Say what you will about the resurgence of Chris Johnson, but it was Ringer who had 19 touches (14 rush, 5 rec) and 102 total yards against Indy in Week 8. CJ1K will net the lion’s share of touches, but I’d be willing to bet Ringer will get a significant amount of garbage-time work in this game.
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Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Davone Bess, MIA, 22%, Weeks 14, 15, 16
Opponents: Week 14 vs PHI (27th pass); Week 15 @ BUF (25th pass); Week 16 @ NE (31st pass)
Previously a PPR-lite machine, Bess has been very quiet this year … but I have a feeling a little regression toward the mean is in store. As I mentioned for Moore above, this schedule speaks for itself. He put up a season-best 5/92/0 against New England in Week 1, and scored his only TD of the season at Buffalo in Week 11.
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Brad Smith, BUF, 1%, Weeks 14, 15, 16
Opponents: Week 14 vs SD (18th pass); Week 15 @ MIA (22nd pass); Week 16 @ DEN (24th pass)
I would put Smith on a “stand-by” basis for now, but he sure looked good on Sunday, and I think it’s no coincidence that Fitzpatrick looked better too. Smith’s TD catch may have appeared somewhat fluky (semi-deflected pass), but it required a lot of concentration and determination to snag the ball and drag Cromartie into the end zone. Playoff schedule is soft, and I think he’ll see a considerable number of RZ looks.
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Tony Scheffler, DET, 4%, Weeks 14, 15
Opponents: Week 14 vs MIN (32nd pass); Week 15 @ OAK (23rd pass)
You won’t get a lot of yardage from Scheffler, but he has stolen away most of Brandon Pettigrew’s red-zone opportunities over the last few weeks. He’s scored a TD in 3 of his last 4 games. If you don’t own one of the top TEs (or if you’re just sick of Jermichael Finley), Scheffler is a modest plug-and-play.

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You never know what teams are going to look like from year to year. That is the case this year more than ever since there hasn’t been an early free agency period. Knowing that it’s ridiculously early to look ahead to Weeks 14-16 of a season that remains in question, I’ll forge ahead anyway. It’s beats thinking about the lockout. Click here to go the NFL.com’s interactive schedule.
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Week 14
Pittsburgh opens to fantasy playoffs taking on Cleveland at home in a short week (Thursday). Cleveland ranked 27th against the run. Though the Browns did a good job limiting Rashard Mendenhall to 120 yards in the two games, he managed to score three touchdowns against them.
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Cincinnati is holding out hope that Carson Palmer returns.  Chad Ochocinco likely won’t be back. Jerome Simpson and the other players in the passing game will welcome the sight of Houston’s league-worst pass defense in Week 14.
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Washington had the second worst pass defense last year, and it won’t get any easier in Week 14 as they have to take on the Patriots powerful attack.
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Matt Forte gets a crack at Denver’s second-worst run defense while Ryan Mathews gets Buffalo’s league-worst run defense.
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Dwayne Bowe gets to spend some time on Revis Island.
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Week 15
We don’t know who will be running the ball for the Dolphins next year, but we do know they have a good match-up in Week 15 against  Buffalo.
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Arian Foster should do some heavy lifting against Carolina.
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DeSean Jackson will get put to the test on Revis Island.
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Week 16
Peyton Manning have to be licking their chops when they see Houston on the schedule for the fantasy football championship. He combined for 701 yards and five touchdowns against them last year.
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Knowshon Moreno has yet to live up to his expectations, but this could be the year with John Fox as coach. He draws Buffalo this week.
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Hakeem Nicks has a date on Revis Island. Peyton Hillis faces Baltimore. Rest assured they know who he is now.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI
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I was asked to participate in the FantasyPros.com Featured Pros segment this week. Click here to see the full article and the responses from from The Scores Report, Chet Gresham from Razzball.
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Question 1
Give us 2 or 3 players that might be available off of waivers that you would target to stash away now for the playoffs (weeks 14-16), and tell us why.
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My Response:
Beanie Wells’ knee concerns me. Even if he’s able to go this week, I’m not convinced he comes away Monday without swelling. If they lose as expected to Kansas City this week, they will be 3-7. With nothing to play for, Arizona’s front office could shut down Beanie Wells, meaning Tim Hightower could get some starts down the stretch. They have a favorable schedule ahead with St. Louis, Denver, Carolina, and Dallas looming in Weeks 13-16.
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Arrelious Benn has scored in consecutive weeks and is finally showing up on the fantasy radar. He too has a nice stretch of games in Weeks 13-16 as he faces Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, and Seattle. If you aren’t able to get his teammate Mike Williams, Benn may be a sneaky force down the stretch.

The NFL schedule was released yesterday. I know it’s hard to speculate which teams will be good and which teams will be bad in early September, let alone late April. I’m gonna do it anyway. Here’s a look at some key match-ups in the fantasy football playoffs.

Week 14
Dream Match-ups:
Green Bay @ Detroit
If you are keeping Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, or even Jermichael Finely for you dynasty folks, you have to be thrilled with this opening round draw.

St. Louis @ New Orleans
My guess is the Saints will not have the NFC South wrapped up at this point and will lay the hammer down on the Rams. Good news for Brees and company.

Kansas City @ San Diego
Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson get a nice match-up as well.

Tough Draws:  
Miami @ NY Jets 
Brandon Marshall owners can’t like his date with Revis.

Marquee Match-ups:  
Tennessee @ Indy, NY Giants @ Minnesota, Philly @ Dallas, Baltimore @ Houston

Week 15
Dream Match-ups:
Cleveland @ Cincinnati 
Weather could slow the passing game, but Cedric Benson should run wild.

Kansas City @ St. Louis
Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and Steven Jackson could all rack up the yards in this match-up.

Marquee Match-ups:  
Houston @ Tennessee, New Orleans @ Baltimore, Philly @ NY Giants, NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (welcome back Santonio), Green Bay @ New England

Week 16
Dream Match-ups:
Tennessee @ Kansas City
Chris Johnson should go off.

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and Anquan Boldin are drooling.

San Francisco @ St. Louis
Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree are licking their chops.

Detroit @ Miami
If you survive Week 14 with Brandon Marshall, here’s your payoff.

Marquee Match-ups:
Minnesota @ Philly, NY Giants @ Green Bay, San Diego @ Cincinnati, New Orleans @ Atlanta

Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Fantasy Football Forum
How did the championship round go? You take home a title? Brag it up if you did. I am also pleased to offer you $10 off at Iwonmyleague.com if you want to get a trophy to commemorate your victory. Simply go to Iwonmyleague.com and enter the promo code AFIL2009. Be sure to check out their new Pigskin Collection trophies.

Here’s a look at how I fared in my leagues.

KFFL Analysis League
Record:  9-4, Eliminated First Round of Playoffs

Fantasy Football Search League – I played in the third place game. Ryan Grant, Randy Moss, San Francisco Defense were my top performers. Marion  Barber III, Steve Smith (NYG) and Ocho played well for my opponent. I won the third place game.
Record:  7-6, First Round Bye, Eliminated Second Round of the playoffs
3rd Place Finish

Rotoprofessor Challenge
Record:  7-6, Eliminated First Round of Playoffs, Won 5th Place Game

My Keeper League – I played in the fifth place game. Kurt Warner, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas, Andre Johnson, Ocho, Larry Fitzgerald, Brent Celek, and Atlanta Defense were solid for me. Jonathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and Santonio Holmes were solid for my opponent. I simply crushed him.
Record:  6-8, Won first consolation round game, Won 5th Place game

Fantasy Trifecta League
Record:  3-10, Last Place Finish

Weekly Record:  2-0
Regular Season Record: 32-34
Fantasy Playoffs Record:  0-3
Consolation Round Record:  4-0
Overall Record:    36-37

I also participated in a couple of optimal lineup fantasy leagues. These are leagues that you aren’t allowed to make any waiver wire moves or trades. Each week your best lineup is automatically submitted.

FFPC Pros vs. Joes
Six divisions of 12 teams, each comprised of six experts and six average Joes. I won my division and finished third out of 72 teams. See the complete standings here.

Fantasy Players Network Challenge
Three divisions of 12 teams comprised of member sites of the Fantasy Players Network. I finished seventh in my division and 19th overall.  See the complete standing here.

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?

Before we get started, check out my Week 16 NFL picks.

Fantasy Football Forum
How did the second round of the fantasy playoffs go for you? You advance to the title game?

I’m in five leagues so I’ll recap each one.

KFFL Analysis League - I was knocked out of the playoffs last week. Such a shame as I would have dominated this week (Peyton, Mendenhall, Beanie, Chambers, Andre Johnson, Wayne, Gates, Baltimore D).
Record:  9-4, Eliminated First Round of Playoffs

Fantasy Football Search League – Reggie Wayne got me off to a nice start. Randy Moss, Laurence Maroney, and Fred Davis played well for me. Donovan McNabb, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Todd Heap, Brandon Marshall, and Fred Jackson played well for my opponent. I got cute and started Arian Foster, which blew up in my face. My playoff woes continued.
Record:  7-6, First Round Bye, Eliminated Second Round of the playoffs

Rotoprofessor Challenge - I was knocked out of the playoffs last week, but was in the fifth place game. I started off with Wayne and my opponent countered with MJD. Donovan McNabb, Ricky Williams,  John Carlson, and DeSean Jackson played well for me. I destroyed my opponent.
Record:  7-6, Eliminated First Round of Playoffs, Won 5th Place Game

My Keeper League – I missed the playoffs, but had a loser’s bracket match-up. My opponent got off to a big start with Dallas Clark. Fitz, Ocho,  and Andre Johnson were solid. Chris Johnson and Baltimore D was tough for my opponent. I managed to pick up the win.
Record:  6-8, Won first consolation round game

Fantasy Trifecta League – My nightmare came to an end.
Record:  3-10, Last Place Finish

Weekly Record:  2-1
Regular Season Record: 32-34
Fantasy Playoffs Record:  0-3
Consolation Round Record:  2-0
Overall Record:    34-37

That’s how my weekend of fantasy football went. How did you do?

Weather often plays a factor in the fantasy playoffs. Here’s a look at some key games where weather could play a role.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Normally Buffalo would be the problem site, but fantasy owners are fortunate this game isn’t in Foxboro. Feel free to use all of your regulars for both teams. The Bills running game gets an upgrade as New England is hurting up front.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
It will be cold, but nothing the players can’t handle. If Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are able to go, I would start them with caution though.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
It’s going to be a beautiful day in Denver. Use your Broncos with confidence. I hope you don’t have to rely on any Raiders.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Now we get to the game that will have the weather people excited. Luckily most of the snow will have fallen. Wind will likely be the main factor. Don’t bench McNabb, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, Michael Crabtree, or Vernon Davis because of the weather. I would be reluctant to use Alex Smith, however, but I would be reluctant to use him even if weather wasn’t an issue.

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Weather shouldn’t be an issue in this one. Plus, both teams are accustomed to weather this time of year.

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Snow shouldn’t be an issue, but the wind will be. This could be the worst weather game of the weekend. Downgrade both passing games. Ray Rice and Matt Forte should be very active both running and catching the football.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
It’s going to be cold in Bank of America Stadium tonight, but wind shouldn’t be much of a factor. Brett Favre doesn’t play as well when it’s cold anymore, plus Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin aren’t 100%. I’d downgrade their passing game. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor should be busy tonight.