LestersLegends.com

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This week’s topic:
Which rookie’s fantasy stock fell the furthest due to the draft?
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My response:
While his long-term value may be solid, the immediate value of Ryan Mallett took a big time hit. Unless Tom Brady decides to stay home to spend time with Gisele, which would be as understandable as it is unlikely, Mallett isn’t seeing the field for years.
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Brady will turn 34 in August, so the waiting won’t last forever, but it will seem like an eternity for those who use a dynasty league pick on him. In redraft leagues you can forget about calling his name.
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There were a number of franchises looking for a quarterback in the draft. Miami, Seattle, and Arizona still don’t have their QB situation figured out. Mallett could have been a starter in a number of locations, but he gets clipboard duty in New England. It could be the best thing for his career, but that does little for fantasy owners.

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This week’s topic:
Which rookie’s fantasy stock jumped the most based on the team/system which drafted him?
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My response:
I would have to say that Daniel Thomas walked away from the draft in very good shape considering he was the 62nd player selected. Ronnie Brown and/or Ricky Williams will not be back next year, meaning Thomas has a chance to get a healthy share of carries right out of the gate.
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At 6’0″, 230 pounds Thomas has the size to carry the load. He ran for 1585 yards and 19 touchdowns at Kansas State and has enough speed and quickness to be effective at the next level.
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An added bonus is the Dolphins’ first round pick. Guard Mike Pouncey was taken to solidify their offensive line and improve the ability to run the football. Miami is one of teams most committed to running the football so Thomas should get ample opportunities.
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Honorable mention goes to Roy Helu, who was drafted with the 105th pick by the Redskins. Mike Shanahan keeps him out of the top slot.

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This week’s topic:
What top 15 running back do you feel is poised for a fall?
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My response:
Even before winning the Madden NFL 12 cover contest, I was down on Peyton Hillis. Now that he also has the Madden Curse to deal with, that pretty much sealed his fate for me. The likelihood that he will be available when I am comfortable drafting him is razor thin.
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Browns GM Tom Heckert admitted that the Browns overused Hillis last year. There is little chance he gets as many touches this year. Montario Hardesty should be fully recovered from his ACL surgery, which will put them both smack dab in the middle of a RBBC. Hardesty was supposed to be the featured back before suffering the injury. Obviously Hillis played his way into a healthy workload, but he will have to share.
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As Colt McCoy becomes more comfortable in the offense, I anticipate the Browns attempting more than the 478 passes they did last year, which could also cut into the workload.
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Hillis finished the season averaging 35.7 rushing yards in his last three games and 54.4 in his last five. After scoring 13 touchdowns (11 rushing) in his first 11 games, he failed to score in his final five. Like I said, the writing was on the wall before the Madden cover. Do you really want to test the Madden Curse with an early draft pick?

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This week’s topic:
What non-top 20 quarterback do you project to finish in the top 15?

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My response:
I was high on Kevin Kolb last year. Oops. Assuming that he gets dealt this year, I think he has a good chance to put up big numbers. He’s a bright kid and a football junkie. He just needs the chance.
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The early indication that his break is going to come with the Arizona Cardinals. What’s not to like about that destination?
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The Cardinals ground game is ineffective last year, thanks to yet another Beanie Wells injury. They added Ryan Williams in the draft. Throw in Tim Hightower and the Cardinals could finally have a more balanced attack. If not, Kolb will be forced to throw more. Either way, it spells success for Kolb, especially with a defense that ranked 30th with 27.1 points allowed per game.
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I like the Patrick Peterson pick, but they are still a long way off from shutting down teams. They are going to have to put points on the board to win, which means opening up the passing game. With one of the elite receivers in the game, Larry Fitzgerald, at his disposal, Kolb could do big things in 2011.
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Even if he lands in Seattle, he can still flourish in Pete Carroll’s system.

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This week’s topic:
Would you rather have LeGarrette Blount or Shonn Greene in redraft leagues?
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My response:
LeGarrette Blount was one of the major surprises last year when he ran for 1007 yards and six touchdowns. Perhaps more impressive was his 5.0 yards per carry. I was surprised that the Bucs didn’t add a speedy back to compliment Blount in the 2011 NFL Draft. Perhaps that is a sign that they are confident in their ability to re-sign Cadillac Williams. Blount could yield some carries to potential touchdown vulture Allen Bradford, but it appears Blount’s run as the lead back is safe.
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Greene, meanwhile will also take over as the lead back. At least that’s what is supposed to happen. Isn’t what we thought when Thomas Jones left town? LaDainian Tomlinson will be brought in to backup Shonn Greene. Meanwhile LT outperformed him in every category. More attemps, more yards, better yards per carry, more touchdowns, more receptions, more recieving yards, more touches per fumble. You get the point.
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LT will be back next year, and I do believe his role will be minimized. That said, I think Joe McKnight will cut into both Greene and LT’s production. LT will take the bigger hit, but both Greene and LT will probably come off the board a little sooner than they should.

It’s a close call, but I like Blount a little better for 2011 fantasy drafts.

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This week’s topic:
The one player whose fantasy value is most stronglycorrelated to the system he plays in (affecting him either positively or negatively).

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My response:
My initial thought was Deion Branch. After all he was a quality receiver for the Patriots, struggled in Seattle, and was a quality receiver when he returned to New England.  While he certainly fits the bill, injuries also played a role in his Seattle regression.
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After further consideration I came to Brandon Marshall.
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Marshall is a physical specimen at 6’4″, 230 pounds. He flourished in Denver posting three consecutive 100 catch seasons. It didn’t matter if it was Jay Cutler or Kyle Orton under center. Marshall was a force in Denver. His antics led to his departure, and one could argue that he couldn’t have found many worse landing spots.
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Marshall still caught over six passes per game for the Dolphins, but only managed to score three touchdowns. He didn’t catch is second touchdown reception until Week 14. While he reached the 1000 yard mark for the fourth straight year, it’s only because he averaged 101.7 yards per game over the past three weeks. In his first 11 games, Marshall averaged 64.5 ypg.
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All indications are that the Dolphins will be looking for a new quarterback, which will make it Marshall’s fourth in four years. They also have major question marks at running back. The state of the Broncos offense is in complete disarray. Time will tell what their system will like like next year. While the move to Miami may have increased the value of Marshall’s bank account, it took a hard hit on his fantasy value.

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This week’s topic:
What top 15 wide receiver do you feel is poised for a fall?
Click here for the full article.

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My response:
I’m sorry, but I’m not a believer in Brandon Lloyd next year. He was one of the best stories in the league last year when he caught 77 passes for a league-high 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Josh McDaniels is gone and John Fox isn’t going to be nearly as pass happy. He already started to show signs of slowing last year. He averaged 68.6 yards in Denver’s last seven games last year after posting a 107.6 average through the first nine games. Lloyd totaled 2370 yards and 15 touchdowns in his first seven seasons so I have every right to be a skeptic.
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Another factor is Demaryius Thomas’ eventual return. While he’ll likely miss the first half of the year, he should be in the mix for targets down the stretch. Eddie Royal and Eric Decker will also compete for looks. Plus, let’s not forget Fox’s penchant for running the football. The Panthers, even when they were struggling, were always one of the top running teams in the league. Knowshon Moreno should get plenty of looks.
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There just seems to be too many factors that aren’t in Lloyd’s favor. I hope he proves me wrong because I’d love to see that Cinderella story continue, but in terms of being a fantasy stud WR I think his carriage turns back into a pumpkin in 2011.