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Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks. Also check out this week’s Fourth & 1 Debate as we discuss unheralded players who will step in up this week (click here for the article).

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Philip Rivers over Drew Brees:  Loser Rivers 26.65, Brees 28.95
Matt Forte over Ricky Williams:  Winner Forte 15.6 Ricky 8.1
Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant: Winner J-Stew 18.6, Grant 4.1
Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald:  Loser Maclin 8.3, Fitz 20.3
Austin Collie over Chris Chambers:  Winner Collie 7.8, Chambers 1.1
SS: Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens:  Loser Thomas 2.5, T.O. 3.1

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 30-32-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-11
Overall: 34-43-1

Week 14 Picks

Quarterbacks

Vince Young over Carson Palmer
VY is facing a St. Louis team that ranks 25th in total yards allowed (363.7) and 28th in points allowed per game (26.2). They are actually middle of the road in passing yards allowed per game (217.5), but VY is a unique athlete that can contribute with both his arm and his feet. I just don’t see the Rams containing him. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer takes on the Vikings, who are coming off a bad loss, on the road. Jared Allen failed to record even a tackle last week so you just know he’ll be looking for redemption. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady
This is a battle of multiple Super Bowl winners that find their teams in a free fall. I think they’ll both win this week, but I like Big Ben to put up better fantasy numbers. Big Ben plays Cleveland’s 26th ranked pass defense (246.1) The Browns have allowed 18 passing TDs on the year. Brady faces Carolina, who ranks 6th in passing yards allowed (192.4) and 5th in passing TDs allowed (12).

Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton
Fitzpatrick has looked good at times.He as least has shown the ability to get the ball to T.O. and Lee Evans. He has a favorable match-up this week against Kansas City who ranks 28th with 250.6 passing yards allowed and 24th with passing TDs allowed (21). Orton takes on the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts rank 4th with 11 passing TDs allowed.

Running Back

Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2
Who would have guessed coming into the year that I’d be spotting Matt Forte 20 yards in a head-to-head match-up with Jamaal Charles? Charles has averaged nearly 100 total yards and a score the last four weeks and has a juicy match-up against Buffalo’s league worst run defense (172.1 ypg). Forte takes on Green Bay’s 4th ranked run defense (97.2). The Pack has allowed just 4 rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver

Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant
Walter has played decent over the last four games averaging five catches for 60 yards. He takes on Seattle who is 25th in passing yards allowed (243.5) and 28th in passing TD allowed (22). Bryant will have to deal with Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Have fun Antonio.

SUPER STRETCH

Joe Flacco over Brett Favre
Flacco hasn’t been nearly the same QB that he was earlier in the season. Things could change this week as he takes on Detroit’s league worst pass defense (274.8 yards, 28 TDs). Favre has struggled the past few seasons in December. He forced a couple of passes last week, which he’s avoided for most of the year. I’m afraid that he’s opened Pandora’s Box and he could do more of the same this week. He faces Cincinnati who ranks 12th in passing yards allowed (211.5), 8th in passing TDs allowed (13), and 6th in INTs (14).

Before we get started, check out my Week 13 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week

Aaron Rodgers over Drew Brees +1 and Tom Brady +1
Rodgers 29.9
Brees Loser 39.45 (38.45 actual)
Brady Winner 13.05 (12.05 actual)
Ricky Williams over Chris Johnson: Loser Ricky 17.5, CJ 24.6
Jason Snelling over Joseph Addai: Loser Snelling 3.3, Addai 8.2
Nate Burleson over Mike Sims-Walker: Tie Nate 4.6, Sims-Walker 4.6
Michael Crabtree over Steve Smith (CAR): Winner Crab 5.4, Smith 0.5
SS: Kyle Boller over Jason Campbell: Loser Boller20.7, Campbell 25.75

Regular Picks: 2-3-1
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall: 2-4-1

Season Record
Regular Picks: 27-30-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-10
Overall: 31-40-1

Week 13 Picks

Quarterback

Philip Rivers over Drew Brees
Brees is coming off a monster win against the Patriots in which he lit them up like a Christmas tree. He’s due for a bit of a letdown as he takes on Washington on the road. The Skins have actually been solid against the pass, although they did play some of the worst QBs earlier in the year. Rivers should have an absolute field day against the Brownies.

Running Backs

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
Forte should be able to put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air against the lowly Saints. Meanwhile Ricky has to face New England following an embarrassing loss. They focus on shutting Ricky down as Henne can’t beat them.

Jonathan Stewart over Ryan Grant
The Panthers best bet for winning is to pound to ball repeatedly with both J-Stew and D-Will. They should be able to do that with ease against Tampa Bay at home. Meanwhile, Ryan Grant faces Baltimore’s tough run defense.

Wide Receivers

Jeremy Maclin over Larry Fitzgerald
This match-up has concussion written all over it. Maclin should slide into the #1 role for the Eagles with DeSean Jackson likely to miss the game with a concussion. He should torch Atlanta. Meanwhile Fitz will likely have to deal with Matt Leinart again as Kurt Warner recovers from his concussion.

Austin Collie over Chris Chambers
The last time the Colts played Tennessee scored a pair of TDs. It’s really pick-your-poison will all the weapons at Peyton Manning’s disposal. The Titans will key in on Wayne, Clark, and Addai, which should allow Collie to make some plays. Chambers has been great since coming over to Kansas City from San Diego. This week he faces Champ Bailey and their tough pass defense.

SUPER STRETCH

Mike Thomas over Terrell Owens
David Garrard is so much better playing at home. With this week’s game in Jacksonville Thomas has a chance to put up real solid numbers. Meanwhile T.O. will have to lock horns with Darrelle Revis and the Jets. He’s been in the business of shutting down #1 WRs, and this week should be no different.

Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Jeff Garcia - The think I like about Garcia is he rarely turns the ball over.  He a nice safe play.  He should be good for 225 yards and a TD or two against New Orleans.  If you are in the position where you don’t want to take big risks this week, Garcia is your guy. 
Stat Line:  9 for 23 for 119 yards, TD, 7 carries for 42 yards (rushing yardage gave him a decent score)

RB
Jamal Lewis - Lewis hasn’t reached the 80-yard mark since Week 8 and he has just one TD in that four game span.  He wasn’t happy with the game plan that only afforded him 10 carries against Houston.  He should get more carries and greater production this week as he faces Indianapolis.
Stat Line:  24 carries fr 77 yards, 1 catch for 7 yards

Darren McFadden - McFadden scored twice last week, but Fargas had 24 carries to Run DMC’s 10.  I expect the carries to balance out a bit this week as they face Kansas City and McFadden continues to get healthier (toes).  His versatility makes him the guy at the stripe, as evidenced by his two one-yard TDs.  He could even throw on this week.
Stat Line:  7 carries for 13 yards, 3 catches for 50 yards

WR
Ted Ginn, Jr. - Ginn was a guy that I liked coming into this year, and he’s had a handful of games that have showcased his potential.  I see another solid performance from him this week as he faces woeful St. Louis.
Stat Line:  4 catches for 55 yards

Jabar Gaffney - Against the Steelers the Patriots are going to have to adjust their style of play.  Randy Moss will command plenty of attention.  Wes Welker will be second on the radar.  Gaffney will have the opportunity to make some plays.  I think he’ll step up his game.
Stat Line:  1 catch for 2 yards.  Yuck

TE
Greg Olsen - Olsen didn’t catch a pass last week against St. Louis so look for the Bears to get him involved against the Vikings.  The last time they squared off he had six catches for 74 yards and a score.
Stat Line:   1 catch for 7 yards.  Yuck

K
Rian Lindell - Until they prove me wrong I am going to keep picking on the 49ers.  They have allowed the most FGs and the most Kicker points. 
Stat Line:  1 FG

DEF
Miami - St. Louis has packed it in.  Miami got embarrassed by the Patriots last week.  I get the feeling the Dolphins are going to take it out on the Rams this week. 
Stat Line:  3 INTs

Happy Thanksgiving!

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Jeff Garcia (16.15) beat Donovan McNabb ( 3.65) WHICH I WON. 
Ryan Grant (8.6) over Ronnie Brown (4.7) WHICH I WON.
Darren McFadden (17.2) beat Chris Johnson (6.1) WHICH I WON. 
Terrell Owens (27.3) beat Brandon Marshall (  WHICH I WON.      
Calvin Johnson (12.6) beat Santana Moss (7.2) WHICH I LOST.     
Super Stetch:  Peyton Hillis (15.6) beat Brian Westbrook (3.4) WHICH I WON.      

Regular Picks:  4-1
Super Stretch Picks:  1-0  
Overall:  5-1  

Season Record
Regular Picks:  38-22 (.633)
Super Stretch Picks:  5-6 (.455)
Overall:  43-28 (.606)

Quarterback
 
Matt Ryan over Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan hasn’t threw a TD pass the past two weeks.  San Diego’s porous pass D should be the cure.  Cutler has 420 yards and 1 TD since throwing for 447 in Week 10 vs. Cleveland.  Facing the Jets on the road won’t be his cure.

Running Backs
 
Chris Johnson over Clinton Portis
Portis bounced back in a big way last week against Seattle with 143 yards on 29 carries.  This week he faces the Giants though, and yards won’t come as easy.  Chris Johnson has 118 yards the past three weeks.  I’m guessing Detroit is what he’s thankful for this Thanksgiving.

 
Darren McFadden over Matt Forte
McFadden rushed for two TDs last week against Denver.  Up next is Kansas City.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran for a couple more.  Meanwhile Forte faces Minnesota.  He’ll have to get his work in the passing attack because the Vikings don’t allow much on the ground. 

Wide Receiver
  
Antonio Bryant over T.J. Houshmandzadeh  
Bryant is having a nice little second half averaging 76.4 yards per game over his past five with a couple of scores.  Housh has been heavily targeted with at least six receptions in eight of his last nine games.  Bryant has a much better matchup this week though.  Tampa Bay goes up against New Orleans while Cincinnati has to face Baltimore.

 
Roy Williams over Dwayne Bowe
After T.O. begged for the ball last week, Romo granted his wish.  Romo will share the wealth a little more on Thanksgiving as Dallas faces Seattle.  Trades during the season are rare enough in the NFL, but the fact that Roy was dealt from one Thanksgiving Day team is kind of neat.  Poor Bowe won’t be thankful that Nnamdi Asomugha will be in his back pocket.   

SUPER STRETCH   
  
J.J. Arrington over Kevin Faulk
I’d be surprised if either of them scored this week, but they both will catch the ball out of the backfield while mixing in a few carries.  Faulk will likely get more touches, but he is facing a tough Pittsburgh team.  Arrington goes up against the other Pennsylvania team.  You know the one that is a complete mess.  I’ll step out and pick J.J. here.