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Before we get started, check out my Week 17 NFL picks.

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard.

Last Week
Alex Smith over Peyton Manning:  Winner Smith 15.2, Peyton 9.6
Beanie Wells over LaDainian Tomlinson:  Loser Beanie15.3, LT 18.3
Ryan Grant over Steven Jackson:  Incomplete Grant 21.7, S-Jax DNP
Chad Ochocino over Brandon Marshall +2:  Ocho 8.9, Marshall (actual +2) 6.2 (4.2 actual +2)
Jermichael Finley over Brent Celek:  Loser Finley 8.0, Celek18.1
SS: Jason Snelling over Jamaal Charles:  Loser Snelling 7.4, Charles 12.4

Regular Picks:  2-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  2-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 37-39-1
Super Stretch Picks:  6-12
Overall: 43-51-1

Week 17 Picks

Jay Cutler over Tony Romo
Cutler is coming off a big game against the Vikings. He should dominate the Lions and actually make a run at evening his TD to INT ratio. Philadelphia will wake up the echoes of Romo’s December struggles.

Knowshon Moreno vs. Thomas Jones
I’m going with the Rookie over the veteran in this Week 17 match-up. Moreno faces Kansas City’s 31st ranked run defense (161.3 yards per game). Thomas Jones faces Cincinnati’s 2nd ranked run defense (87.7 ypg). The Bengals have allowed half as many rushing TDs as well.

Matt Forte over Ricky Williams
It’s been a forgettable year for Matt Forte as he saw a significant drop in his production. Ricky Williams was the exact opposite. This week though, it will look more like everybody anticipated from these two. Forte should destroy the Lions’ 24th ranked run defense (125.7 ypg) while Ricky should struggle against the Steelers’ 3rd ranked run defense (89.3 ypg). Pittsburgh has allowed 12 fewer rushing TDs.

Nate Washington over Chad Ochocinco
Washington takes on Seattle, who has allowed 27 passing TDs on the year. Washington is a good bet to burn them deep. Meanwhile Ochocinco has to lock horns with Darrelle Revis, who has been shutting WRs down all year.

Steve Breaston over Miles Austin
Breaston faces Green Bay, who despite ranking 12th with 220.7 passing yards per game, have allowed 28 passing TDs. That ranks them 29th in the league in that category. The Eagles held Austin to just one catch the last time they played. I’m expecting Romo to struggle so why not hitch my cart to that prediction.

SUPER STRETCH

Jason Snelling over Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower (individually)
I suspect that Michael Turner will be out again this week, which means Snelling would get the bulk of the work. He takes on Tampa Bay, who ranks 30th against the run (156.5 ypg) with 16 rushing TDs allowed. Beanie and Hightower are both capable of putting up solid games, though they will likely struggle against Green Bay’s #1 run defense (85.7 ypg, 5 TDs).

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Putting the final piece of your fantasy football puzzle together

I’ve uncovered some guys you can plug in to your lineup if you are dealing with an injury or tough matchups.   Check back following the games to see the stat line of guys profiled.

QB
Seneca Wallace - Seneca had a decent showing against the Jets in the snow.  The weather and Arizona’s Defense are much more fantasy friendly.  Wallace and Company will try to send Holmgren off a Winner.
Stat Line:  24 of 43 for 250 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 carries for 14 yards

RB
Ryan Grant - Detroit makes everybody look a little better than they are.  Heck, New Orleans had four first half rushing TDs against them.  Ryan Grant should have a nice game against them as Detroit finishes off their imperfect season.
Stat Line:  19 carries for 106 yards, 3 catches for 23 yards

Larry Johnson - LJ continues a strong second half surge.  He should pile up the yards against Cincinnati in what could be his last game in a Chiefs uniform.
Stat Line:  10 carries for 18 yards

WR
Steve Breaston - Arizona will use Seattle as a chance to right their wrongs heading into the playoffs.  If Boldin isn’t 100% he won’t go.  Breaston needs 85 yards for a 1000 yard season.  I can see him reaching that mark.
Stat Line:  5 catches for 91 yards, TD

Santonio Holmes - Holmes has three TDs in his last four games.  Against Cleveland there is a good chance he scores again.
Stat Line:  3 catches for 31 yards

TE
Gijon Robinson - With Indy already in, Gijon could get some more work in order to keep Dallas Clark healthy for the playoffs.  He’s had eleven catches for 128 yards in his past three weeks.
Stat Line:  Did not catch a pass.

K
Mason Crosby - In your fantasy Super Bowl, why not go with a guy who is facing the Lions.  He should be good for 4+ PATs and a FG.
Stat Line:  1 FG, 4 PATs

DEF
Green Bay - See above.
Stat Line:  1 Sack, 2 INTs

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Brett Favre (9.35) beat Kurt Warner (1.5) WHICH I WON.
Pierre Thomas (16.3) beat Michael Turner (13.0) WHICH I WON. 
LaDainian Tomlinson (11.0) beat Marshawn Lynch (9.4) WHICH I LOST.
Wes Welker (12.8) beat Andre Johnson (1.9) WHICH I WON. 
Terrell Owens (12.3) beat Anthony Gonzalez (3.8) WHICH I LOST. 
  
Super Stetch:  Shaun Hill (23.3) beat Tony Romo  (20.8) WHICH I WON.   

Regular Picks:  3-2 
Super Stretch Picks: 1-0   
Overall:  4-2

Season Record
Regular Picks:  49-31 (.613)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-7 (.533)
Overall:  57-38 (.600)

Quarterback
   
Tyler Thigpen over Tony Romo
Thigpen gets a pressure-free finish against Cincinnati.  Even if the weather is rough in Cincy, his running ability should make up for it.  This is basically a playoff game for Romo as he needs to win.  We all know how Romo performs in the playoffs.

Running Backs
   
LaDainian Tomlinson over Thomas Jones
LT has been a disappointment by his standards.  Thomas Jones has been one of the biggest surprises this year.  In Week 17 though, LT will deliver the goods vs. Denver while Jones will have his work cut out for him vs. Miami.

 
Cedric Benson over Ronnie Brown
Benson exploded for 171 yards last week against Cleveland.  He won’t match that production, but he should put up solid numbers against Kansas City.  Ronnie Brown faces a desperate Jet team.  I’m taking Benson is this battle of Class of 2005 first round backs.

Wide Receiver
  
Eddie Royal over Antonio Bryant
Royal faces San Diego in a battle for the AFC West.  I expect a lot of fireworks in this one with very little Defense.  Bryant faces the Raiders and shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha.   

 
Vincent Jackson over  Steve Smith
Vincent Jackson should factor in the San Diego-Denver shootout as well.  His size makes him a tough cover.  Smith has a nice matchup against the Saints, but I think Carolina will rely more on their ground game as usual.  

SUPER STRETCH 
 
Vince Young & David Carr over Jason Campbell
I figure both VY and Carr play about a half of football each.  I think in their scrub time they can muster up more points than Campbell vs. the 49ers.