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To say that Matt Ryan exceeded expectations last year is a vast understatement.  He started off slow averaging 167.3 yards per game in the first four games with 2 TDs (0.5/gm).  He tore it up in October and November averaging 244.5 ypg with 11 TDs (1.375/gm).  He fizzled a bit down the stretch averaging 203.8 ypg with 3 TDs (0.75/gm).  You would expect some growth from him in his second year, especially with the addition of Tight End Tony Gonzalez, who will team with Roddy White to give the Falcons an excellent 1-2 punch.  Michael Jenkins made strides last year and should benefit from Gonzo’s arrival as well.  Throw in an excellent running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood and the Offense should be firing on all cylinders.

His fantasy schedule isn’t too frightening.  He plays at home against New Orleans, at NY Jets, and at home against the Bills.  His regular season is pretty tough being in a good division, facing the AFC East and the NFC East.  With his  weapons he still should be able to move the chains and put points on the board.  I’m expecting him to throw for around 3600 yards and 22 TDs.  He won’t dominate the fantasy scene, but he should be a pretty good value in the 8th round or so.

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Rivers has developed into one of the games best young QBs, but I think he takes a step back in 2009.  LaDainian Tomlinson played hurt last year, which limited his effectiveness and production.  Plus, not having Shawne Merriman reeked havoc on the Chargers’ Defense.  Having two healthy should change the way they attack defenses.  Rivers still has enough weapons in Antonio Gates, LT and Darren Sproles out of the backfield, Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, and Malcom Floyd to be a top end QB.   I just don’t see him approaching 34 TDs again.

Rivers has some tough matchups (Oakland twice, Baltimore, Miami, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Philly, and Tennessee) as well as some favorable ones (Denver twice, Kansas City twice, Cleveland, and Cincinnati).   His fantasy playoff schedule (Weeks 14-16) is fairly difficult as he faces Dallas, Cincy, and Tennessee.  Despite some tough matchups, I would still take Rivers in the 4th round.  I expect him to throw for around 3800 yards and 24 TDs.

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Not many players, perhaps in NFL history, had to deal with as much scrutiny as Aaron Rodgers did last year.  It’s one thing to follow a legend, but basically being thrown into a media circus as that legend attempts to make a comeback is a completely different matter.  It was crystal clear that the Green Bay Packers chose Aaron Rodgers over Brett Favre.

In order to keep the masses from revolting, Rodgers would have to prove to not only be durable, but to also be productive.  He had some bumps and bruises along the way, but he was able to fight through them and have an amazing season.  He was a dual threat passing for 4038 yards and 28 TDs and running for 207 yards and 4 TDs.  With a plethora of weapons like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Donald Lee, and Ryan Grant, I see no reason while Rodgers shouldn’t be a fantasy force again this year.

Rodgers should get off to a nice start out of the gates facing Cincinnati and St. Louis in Weeks 2 & 3 and Detroit and Cleveland in Weeks 6 & 7.  After that his road gets a little tougher.  In fact, he would be a guy who I would try to move after week 7.  Facing
Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh in Weeks 13-15, which is the heart of the fantasy playoffs, is less than desirable.  Despite the tough finish, he should still put up solid numbers.  3800 yards with 25 TDs and 200 rushing yards with 3 TDs is my low watermark for Rodgers.  Getting that production in the 4th or 5th round is a great value.

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If Kurt Warner can hold off Father Time for one more season, it should be a good one.  He has the best WR in the game in Larry Fitzgerald, and the best WR tandem in Fitz and Anquan Boldin.  He also has Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban at his disposal.  Beanie Wells should be an upgrade over Edgerrin James, which should help balance the offense a bit.  Despite that and Todd Haley’s departure, the Cardinals should still be a pass-first offense.  Warner has been nothing short of brilliant in Arizona throwing for 57 TDs the past two seasons.  He has such a quick release that he should be able to stay on the field.

Warner faces some tough Defenses this year (Indianapolis, Houston, Giants, Chicago, Tennessee, and Minnesota), but has a very favorable fantasy football playoffs schedule.  In Weeks 14-16 he faces  San Francisco, Detroit, and St. Louis. Weather shouldn’t be much of a factor as he has just two cold game opportunites when they play the Giants in Giants Stadium on October 25th and the Bears in Soldier Field on November 8th.

Because of his soft playoff schedule I have Warner ranked 4th on my QB board.  I expect a small dip in his production, but expect him to put up 4200 yards and 25 TDs.  You should get decent value on Warner as he’ll likely be drafted in the late third/fourth round.

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Tony Dungy is gone, but I can’t think of a QB more equipped to make the transition than Peyton Manning.  He had so much freedom with Dungy that he was pretty much running the show on Offense anyway.  He lost a weapon in Marvin Harrison, but let’s face it, Mavin wasn’t the same anyways.  Reggie Wayne should bounce back from a somewhat disappointing season.  Anthony Gonzalez should take the next step becoming a weekly fantasy football starter.  Dallas Clark is a top five TE.  Joseph Addai should bounce back giving them balance running the ball (along with Donald Brown) and another weapon in the passing game. 

Manning simply produces.  He has 4000+ yards in all but two of his eleven seasons.  He has never thrown for less than 26 TDs with nine of the seasons having betwen 26-31 TDs.  He has never missed a start.  Is he always the top fantasy scoring QB?  No.  He’s always in the conversation though.  There isn’t a more reliable option in fantasy fotoball. 

He has some tough tests (Miami, Tennessee twice, New England, Baltimore, NY Jets) and some favorable matchups (Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco, Denver).  His fantasy playoffs schedule (Weeks 14-16) is decent as he faceds Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. 

He should be good for another 4200 yards with 30 TDs.  He’ll be drafted mid-second/mid-third round.  He may not put up the numbers Drew Brees or Tom Brady does, but he’ll consistently put up big numbers.

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There is a high risk/reward for drafting Tom Brady.  He is coming off a major knee injury that cost him virtually the entire 2008 season.  He set the fantasy world on fire though in 2007 and you can argue he has an even better supporting cast with the addition of Joey Galloway.  Randy Moss put together a solid season with Matt Cassel at the helm, and should return to elite status with Brady back.  Wes Welker just goes out there and catches pass after pass.  He should have no problem catching 100 balls for the third straight year.  He fits so nicely in their system.

The Patriots are usually pretty hush hush regarding injuries, but Brady may play a little more extensively in the preseason since he missed a full season.  So far Brady’s knee is not a cause for concern.

The Pats have a fairly strong schedule facing the Jets and Dolphins twice apiece, plus Baltimore, Tennessee, Carolina, and Jacksonville.  When their Offense is clicking, it doesn’t really matter who they face.  The key will be how Brady handles the pass rush.  He’s a pretty cool customer, but it’s hard to predict how he’ll react when he gets
knocked down a couple times.  My guess is he’ll be fine, but the human psyche is quite unpredictable.  For the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16) Brady faces Carolina, Buffalo, and Jacksonville.  Carolina and Jacksonville are home games so all three have the potential for inclement weather.  It’s not a deal breaker by any means, but something to keep in mind when you are weighing Brady against Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or holding off on a QB for a few rounds as Brady will likely go in the late first/early second round.

It’s hard to project numbers for Brady, but I’ll put him on a 4400, 30 TD season.  Those numbers are better than what I projected for Drew Brees, but I would still take Brees ahead of Brady because of the uncertainty of his knee.

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Drew Brees has become the new Peyton Manning.  Not that Peyton isn’t a top tier QB anymore, but Brees has consistently delivered excellent fantasy football numbers the past three years.  He has thrown for 4400+ yards and 26+ TD the past three years.  Last year, he blew up throwing for 5069 yards and 34 TDs.  He had ten 300+ yard games (two 400+) and 11 multiple TD games.  He had only two games (vs. Washington & Carolina) where he failed to throw multiple TDs or for 250 yards.

Brees will once again be a top end fantasy QB.  He has a tough schedule facing Philadelphia, the Jets, the Giants, Miami, Carolina (twice), and New England.  His fantasy playoff schedule (Weeks 14-16) is relatively difficult as he faces Atlanta, Dallas, and Tampa Bay.  Regardless, Brees will still produce.  He should get better performances from Marques Colston and Reggie Bush in the passing game.  He will not only make due with the weapons he’s provided, but he’ll thrive. 

Drew Brees will likely be drafted in the late first/early second round of fantasy football drafts.  He will be one of the first three QBs taken along with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  He provides the least amount of risk of the big three as Brady is recovering from his knee injury and both MVP QBs had personnel changes as Tony Dungy retired and Josh McDaniels moved on to Denver.

I think he’ll take a step back this year with 4400 yards and 27 TDs.  Not quite last year, but still elite numbers.