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Not according to Grant’s ADP at Mock Draft Central that has him going on average with the 21st pick. A number that is staggering to me, considering Grant is coming off a 1450 total yard (1253 rushing), 11 TD season. In fact, it was the second consecutive 1200+ yard season for the fourth year back that will turn 28 during the season.

He’s going after guys like Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, and Ryan Matthews who are far more unproven. He’s even going after WRs like Calvin Johnson and Miles Austin who have bigger question marks entering the new season.

Grant picked it up down the stretch averaging 92.7 total yards with 5 TDs in last year’s fantasy playoffs (Week 14-16). He didn’t turn in many monster weeks, but he didn’t have many duds either. He was a steady source of fantasy points all year long.

Grant has little competition for carries. Top backup Brandon Jackson always seems to get nicked up. Rookie James Starks isn’t ready to take on meaningful carries. Grant’s main threat is Aaron Rodgers stealing rushing TDs. The Packers would be wise to let Grant run in short TD passes and save their franchise QB from the hits.

Grant isn’t going to fool anyone for Ray Rice or MJD with his pass-catching ability, but he has averaged 24.3 catches for 152.7 yards in his three seasons.

I am expecting 1450 (1300 rushing) total yards and 9 TDs from Grant, which is enough to have him as my 8th ranked RB (click to see my updated 2010 fantasy RB rankings) and 9th overall (click to see my 2010 Top 50 fantasy rankings).

What are your thoughts on Ryan Grant? Would you take him in the first round of your fantasy draft?

Driver has been one of the most consistent WRs over the past 6 years averaging 1140.8 yards and 5.8 TDs per season. It’s nice to be able to plug in that kind of production without many worries.

Only this year, there are worries. For starters, Driver turned 36 in February. He takes good care of his body, but eventually Father Time catches up with you. Having both of his knees scoped earlier this year is evidence of that truth.

Age and injuries aren’t his only concerns though. He clearly is behind Greg Jennings in the pecking order, but it may not stop there. There is tight end Jermichael Finley, who outproduced Driver 34 receptions for 496 yards and 4 TDs to 21 catches for 269 yards and 1 TD over the past five regular season games and their playoff loss to Arizona. There is also the presence of James Jones, 26, who has been impressive in OTAs while Driver has been recovering from his surgeries.

Even if he does have a down year, why should you worry about it? You should because his ADP is 68 (26th WR) ahead of guys like Santonio Holmes and Wes Welker  (it’s how you finish, not how you start) and youngsters Mike Wallace, Robert Meachem, and Kenny Britt, who have considerably more upside. There are also QBs like Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, and Joe Flacco; RBs like Ricky Williams, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, and Clinton Portis; and TEs like Brent Celek, Owen Daniels, Visanthe Shianceo, Zach Miller, and Kellen Winslow, who on average are being selected after Driver. I would rather secure of legitmate QB/TE or add to my RB depth than gamble on an aging WR with question marks.

Prediction:  65 catches, 800 yards, 4 TDs

What kind of production do you expect out of Driver this year?

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The Packers enter the year as one of the most explosive fantasy units in the NFL. They have studs at QB, RB, WR, and TE. If you want a Packer on your team this year you’ll have to get ‘em early.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They should open the playoffs with a bang against the Lions even though it’s on the road. Things get tougher though as they travel to New England and come home to face the Giants. You’ll want to roll with Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley regardless of the match-up. You’ll have to make a decision on Ryan Grant and Donald Driver.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Aaron Rodgers – He’s my pick at the #1 2010 fantasy QB. He not only piles up passing numbers, but has rushing yards and TDs that put him over the top.  He has so many weapons to choose from.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Ryan Grant – Somewhat quietly ran for 1253 yards and 11 TDs last year. He added 25 catches for 197 yards. Grant scored six TDs in the last four weeks.

Greg Jennings – TDs were down (4), but he managed to catch 68 passes for 1113 yards. Not a bad year, but I’m certain he can do much better.

Jermichael Finley – Very athletic TE that is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare. He’s big and physical, but has the speed and athleticism making him a tough cover for secondaries and LBs alike. Finley had 55 catches for 676 yards and 5 scores and really made noise down the stretch averaging 67.4 yards and 0.8 TDs in his last five games. He really stepped it up in the playoffs grabbing six passes for 159 yards.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donald Driver – Despite finishing slow Driver had 70 catches for 1061 yards and 6 TDs last year. He’s 35 and had surgery on both knees. Time will tell if that will help or hinder is 2010 production. I’d take him as a WR3, but would prefer him as a WR4 at this point.

Packers Defense/Special Teams – They play the Lions and Bears twice, which could account for 10 INTs or more. They also play the Bills. Unfortunately they face Minnesota twice, the Eagles, the Jets, the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Patriots, and the Giants.

Two Star Fantasy Options
James Jones –  He’ll need an injury to become a factor, as well as improved hands. He can be used as a spot starter in favorable match-ups. Last year against Detroit twice, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay he had 198 yards and 4 TDs. If Driver’s knee become an issue, his value will increase dramatically.

One Star Fantasy Options
Jordy Nelson – Nelson is even farther down the food chain, but does have good hands. If given the opportunity he can contribute. Until then, he should remain on the waivers.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

I’ve been invited to participate in Fantasy Trader’s fantasy football roundtable.

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This week’s topic:
Jermichael Finley went bonkers late in the year. He notched 70+ yards in four of the last five and scored four of his five touchdowns over that span as well. Fact or fiction for 2010?

Click here for the full article.

My response:
Absolute fact. The only thing that will hold him back is injury. He’s a huge target (6’5″, 247) with great speed and athleticism. His body is very fluid as he’s able to make adjustments to the ball. He also possess soft hands.

He’ll be just 23 next year and he’s already formed a great rapport with Aaron Rodgers, who’s easily one of the top tier fantasy QBs. The ageless wonder Donald Driver has to slow down at some point, which should open up even more opportunities for Finley.

He was a beast down the stretch and Arizona could not check him in the playoff shootout. I currently have him as my 5th ranked fantasy TE, and I think he actually may move up the more I process his explosiveness.

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Greg Jennings hardly missed a beat in the transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers.  His TD total dipped from 12 to 9 without #4, but his receptions jumped from 53 to 80 and his yardage from 920 to 1292.  Aaron Rodgers should be even more comfortable this year, assuming the Packers aren’t serious about the Michael Vick Sweepstakes. 

Jennings had five 100+ yard games and had 90+ yards and/or a TD in 12 of his 16 games. Aside from TDs (3 home, 6 away) Jennings’ home-road numbers were nearly identical. The bulk of his receptions (48) were thrown ten yards or less, but he did show the ability to get deep with ten receptions on passes thrown over 20 yards, including four 41 yards or more.

Jennings is going in the second or third rounds of fantasy drafts and could be a great value depending on how late you get him. I’m expecting 85 receptions for 1300 yards and 10 TDs.

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I love Ryan Grant as an RB2, but he needs to find the end zone.  He had an impressive 1200 yard season, but scored just 4 rushing TDs, which matched Aaron Rodgers for the team high.  He also needs to bump that 3.9 yards per carry up over 4 and cut down on his three lost fumbles.  He is a gifted runner though and can catch the ball out of the backfield.  With no contract issues this offseason he should be able to get off to a better start than the 46.5 yards per game he averaged in the first four weeks.  It’s not often that a 1200 yard back has as much room for improvement, which is why I like Grant in ’09.

He starts the season off with Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Minnesota (possibly without the Williams Wall).  He goes on bye and then faces Detroit and Cleveland.  He has one more soft matchup against Detroit in Week 12, but you may be wise to move him before then.  He faces Baltimore in Week 13 and has a fantasy playoff schedule of the Bears (in Chicago), Pittsburgh, and Seattle.  Perfect Sell High candidate if you can find a taker.

Grant will likely go in the third round of fantasy drafts and should put up 1500 total yards and 8 TDs

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Not many players, perhaps in NFL history, had to deal with as much scrutiny as Aaron Rodgers did last year.  It’s one thing to follow a legend, but basically being thrown into a media circus as that legend attempts to make a comeback is a completely different matter.  It was crystal clear that the Green Bay Packers chose Aaron Rodgers over Brett Favre.

In order to keep the masses from revolting, Rodgers would have to prove to not only be durable, but to also be productive.  He had some bumps and bruises along the way, but he was able to fight through them and have an amazing season.  He was a dual threat passing for 4038 yards and 28 TDs and running for 207 yards and 4 TDs.  With a plethora of weapons like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Donald Lee, and Ryan Grant, I see no reason while Rodgers shouldn’t be a fantasy force again this year.

Rodgers should get off to a nice start out of the gates facing Cincinnati and St. Louis in Weeks 2 & 3 and Detroit and Cleveland in Weeks 6 & 7.  After that his road gets a little tougher.  In fact, he would be a guy who I would try to move after week 7.  Facing
Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh in Weeks 13-15, which is the heart of the fantasy playoffs, is less than desirable.  Despite the tough finish, he should still put up solid numbers.  3800 yards with 25 TDs and 200 rushing yards with 3 TDs is my low watermark for Rodgers.  Getting that production in the 4th or 5th round is a great value.

One thing I know for sure.  This offseason won’t be nearly as dramatic as last year’s for the Packers.  No worrying about who the QB is going to be.  No retirement and comebacks.  No media circus. 

The Offense is in good shape.  Rodgers looked solid for a debut QB.  Ryan Grant quietly ran for 1200 yards.  Brandon Jackson appeared to be a capable backup.  Greg Jennings hardly missed a beat without #4 and Driver had a solid campaign.  James Jones didn’t deliver as the #3 WR like many expected.  The Pack have enough young wides in place though, that I don’t see it being a key position to fill.  Donald Lee was decent at TE.  Even the backup QBs were addressed last year.

On Defense is where Green Bay needs to improve.  They took a major step back last year.  Injuries were part of the problem.  They have some key free agents on that side of the ball in Brady Popping, Mike Montgomery, Tramon Williams, and Atari Bigby.  Al Harris will turn 35 in December and Charles Woodson will turn 33 in October.  Clearly they will have to get  younger at Cornerback. They also need to give Aaron Kampman some help on the D Line.  Considering the QBs they faced in their division, it’s almost a crime that they only had 27 Sacks (25th in the league) last  year.

KFFL Free Agent Tracker:

I said few teams have had a more turbulent offseason than Miami.  Well, the Green Packers are the exception to that rule.  The face of the franchise retired to open the door to Aaron Rodgers, who has been waiting in the wings for a few years now.  Well, that was the least of the drama, as the Prodigal Son attempted to return to the team only to find out they changed the locks on him.  After a stalemate which included a candy-coated bribe, the drama played out with #4 moving on to the Big Apple.  Sorry to rehash that mess.

On to football.  Offensively there may not be a team with a wider differential of their expectations.  They have a ton of weapons on offense.  They have a stable of WRs in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Ruvell Martin.  They have a couple of solid backs in Ryan Grant, who was one of last year’s biggest surprises and second-year player Brandon Jackson.  They are solid at Tight End with Donald Lee.  Some why the hesitation to crown them one of the NFL’s best offenses.  Simple.  You don’t know what they are going to get from the QB position for the first time since the early nineties.  First, Rodgers is going to need to show he can deal with the pressure of replacing a legend.  Second, he needs to prove his body can hold up to the rigors of the NFL.  Finally, he’s got to show he has the talent to pull it off.    If he can deliver, the Packers shouldn’t miss much of a beat offensively.  If he can’t, however, it could be a long season in Titletown.

Defensively, the Packers have few worries.  They have a solid Defensive Line with Sackmasters Aaron Kampman & KGB.  They get strong play from their Secondary including stellar CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson and hard-hitting Safety Atari Bigby.  The crown jewel of the D though could be their linebackers A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett.

I expect the Packers to challenge for both the NFC North title as well as a Wild Card berth.  Ultimately I think they win nine games and come up short on both fronts.

Fantasy-wise the Packers have plenty to offer.  Aaron Rodgers is a possible starter in 12 team leagues, but more likely one of the top backups.  Ryan Grant is a Running Back that I mangaged to avoid, but he has the potential to be solid once again.  Brandon Jackson presents a nice sleeper pick that could be had in late rounds or in the waiver wire if Grant struggles.  At wideout Jennings and Driver are worthy of being #2-#4 WRs in most leagues.  James Jones is a nice sleeper pick.  At Tight End Donald Lee is a solid backup.  Mason Crosby is a possibility at Kicker and Green Bay Defense is a top end D.