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Boser’s Tweetbeat – Sifting through the hashtags to bring you the hottest trending Twitter topics in the Fantasy Football industry.
By Ryan Boser

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ADRIAN PETERSON VS. ARIAN FOSTER
That didn’t take long. The debate for the rightful No. 1 pick in next season’s redraft leagues has already materialized. After compiling 18 touchdowns and 2,218 combo yards last year, Arian Foster did more than enough to earn the top billing for me. However, Adrian Peterson backers certainly have a solid case — he’s finished as a top-5 fantasy back in each of his first four seasons. His most productive year was 2009, with 18 scores and 1,825 combo yards. It’s no coincidence that it was the only season he’s lined up behind a quarterback better than Shane Falco. When Brett Favre struggled to move the chains in 2010, Peterson saw less scoring opportunities and got a preview of what’s to come in 2011. In addition to the probable lack of a passing threat, Peterson’s patty-cake offensive line does him no favors. Moreover, the Vikings’ offense will be in transition under new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, with a (potentially) shortened offseason program to acclimate. Peterson cleaned up the fumbling issues last season, and he’s dispelled early-career injury concerns. He’s the best running back in the NFL, and I consider him a safe, worthy top-3 selection.
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Arian Foster’s only done it for one year, but while some see this as a negative, I see it as fresh legs. Sure, things likely would have been different had Ben Tate stayed healthy last season. Instead, Foster emerged as a bona fide superstar, and Tate will enter 2011 as a redshirt rookie coming off a severe ankle injury. Gary Kubiak will return (by the skin of his teeth) with his zone-blocking scheme that fits Foster perfectly. He’ll have plenty of incentive to lean on the 2010 NFL rushing king — the pitchforks are sharpened and the torches are ablaze in Houston. Unlike fellow breakout back Peyton Hillis, Foster finished very strong, and had no problem shouldering a heavy workload. With Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson forcing defenses away from the line, Foster will again have plenty of room to operate, and it’s a safe bet that the No. 3 Houston offense will spend a lot more time in the red zone than the No. 23 Vikings. The versatile Foster is built for fantasy use, and at the end of the day, I think his situation trumps Peterson’s talent.
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THE FINLEY EFFECT
After a relatively slow start last season, Greg Jennings rebounded for a career year (76/1,265/12). It’s no surprise that his surge coincided with the ultra-talented Jermichael Finley’s season ending knee injury. While everybody seems to agree that Finley’s return will cost Jennings some looks in 2011, experts are split on the degree to which it will effect his production. In early mocks, I’ve seen Jennings drafted anywhere from third to eighth among receivers. Those bullish on Jennings will cite that the geriatric Donald Driver is clearly on the decline. They’ll argue that Aaron Rodgers’ magnificence can accommodate a top-level tight end, support an elite wide receiver, and part the Red Sea. I’m finding myself on the other side of the argument. Donald Driver’s decline was more than offset by the progression of James Jones and Jordy Nelson. The two had inconsistent moments, but the numbers don’t lie — they combined for 151 targets, 95 catches, 1,261 yards and seven scores. Jones’ status in Green Bay is on uneven ground, but Nelson appears ready to take the next step even if Jones departs.
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That brings us back to Finley. He’s an athletic specimen who’s literally open on every play, and with Jennings working downfield routes, Finley’s typically open quicker. The two have played exactly 16 full games together in the last two years, giving us a nice round figure to work with. Jennings’ production in the pieced-together season has been disappointing — 59/1,035/6. Coincidence or not, those numbers would’ve ranked 20th in standard scoring among receivers last season, one spot ahead of Braylon Edwards. I won’t go so far as to say he can’t be a No. 1 fantasy receiver, but unless Finley is sidelined again, I’ll have a hard time trusting Jennings in that spot.
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LION KING
Believe it or not, china doll Matt Stafford is at the center of heated draft discussions. There’s an aggressive assembly that views Stafford as a low-end QB1 with top-10 upside. Then there’s me and my red marker. I get it, Stafford has the blue chip pedigree, and he’s shown some promising flashes in his first two seasons. He has an upper echelon receiver in Calvin Johnson, and a decent set of secondary pass catchers that includes Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jahvid Best. You could even recklessly extrapolate his 2.5-game 2010 sample size into a mouth-watering 45-touchdown, 3,424-yard fantasy feast. Stafford certainly appears to have all the skills to excel in the NFL, except one — the ability to stay on the field. Yes, that’s a skill. Brett Favre wasn’t just the luckiest guy in the league for the last two decades. And it’s not like Bob Sanders habitually walks under ladders. Where there’s smoke there’s typically fire, and Stafford’s sending off more signals than Bear Grylls.
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As a result of knee damage and three injuries to his throwing shoulder, Stafford’s missed 19 of 32 career games (59%). His offensive line has improved in protection, but quarterbacks inevitably get hit, especially in a division with Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, and Jared Allen. I don’t necessarily disagree with the premise that Stafford has top-10 potential, but he shouldn’t be drafted that way. Until he can correct his horrific rate of DNP’s, I see him as a mid-to-low level fantasy QB2.
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MOCKING 2011
I’ve recently had the pleasure of partaking in a series of 2011 mock drafts with a group of around 25 fellow industry writers, analysts, and amateur comedians. We’re using a slow draft format with several drafts going on simultaneously, and this first series is strictly PPR. It’s been a blast, and with about a dozen mocks in the books, we’re beginning to accumulate some early ADP knowledge. There have been a few interesting nuggets that have jumped out to me. The momentum of Aaron Rodgers’ outstanding postseason run has propelled him past Michael Vick for top quarterback honors. There appears to be no consensus top wide receiver. And if you’re high on Josh Freeman, Jamaal Charles, and Hakeem Nicks heading into next season, join the club — their stocks are soaring.
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The “Draftmaster” series is organized by Jim Day of FantasyFootballWhiz.com, and with the help of Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay, here’s a first glimpse at our early results. If you’re a strong drafter with interest in participating in the Draftmaster series, feel free to reach out to Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) on Twitter for more information.
That wraps up my first installment of “Lester’s Tweetbeat.” Be sure to check back here in two weeks for the latest insider buzz circulating throughout the Twitterverse.
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Ryan Boser has contributed writing and analysis for FantasyVictory.com, KFAN AM 1130′s Fantasy Football Weekly program, and numerous other fantasy football outlets. Ryan’s own website, Out of My League, covers both fantasy football and the Minnesota sports landscape.

The Packers enter the year as one of the most explosive fantasy units in the NFL. They have studs at QB, RB, WR, and TE. If you want a Packer on your team this year you’ll have to get ‘em early.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
They should open the playoffs with a bang against the Lions even though it’s on the road. Things get tougher though as they travel to New England and come home to face the Giants. You’ll want to roll with Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley regardless of the match-up. You’ll have to make a decision on Ryan Grant and Donald Driver.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Aaron Rodgers – He’s my pick at the #1 2010 fantasy QB. He not only piles up passing numbers, but has rushing yards and TDs that put him over the top.  He has so many weapons to choose from.

Four Star Fantasy Options
Ryan Grant – Somewhat quietly ran for 1253 yards and 11 TDs last year. He added 25 catches for 197 yards. Grant scored six TDs in the last four weeks.

Greg Jennings – TDs were down (4), but he managed to catch 68 passes for 1113 yards. Not a bad year, but I’m certain he can do much better.

Jermichael Finley – Very athletic TE that is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare. He’s big and physical, but has the speed and athleticism making him a tough cover for secondaries and LBs alike. Finley had 55 catches for 676 yards and 5 scores and really made noise down the stretch averaging 67.4 yards and 0.8 TDs in his last five games. He really stepped it up in the playoffs grabbing six passes for 159 yards.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Donald Driver – Despite finishing slow Driver had 70 catches for 1061 yards and 6 TDs last year. He’s 35 and had surgery on both knees. Time will tell if that will help or hinder is 2010 production. I’d take him as a WR3, but would prefer him as a WR4 at this point.

Packers Defense/Special Teams – They play the Lions and Bears twice, which could account for 10 INTs or more. They also play the Bills. Unfortunately they face Minnesota twice, the Eagles, the Jets, the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Patriots, and the Giants.

Two Star Fantasy Options
James Jones –  He’ll need an injury to become a factor, as well as improved hands. He can be used as a spot starter in favorable match-ups. Last year against Detroit twice, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay he had 198 yards and 4 TDs. If Driver’s knee become an issue, his value will increase dramatically.

One Star Fantasy Options
Jordy Nelson – Nelson is even farther down the food chain, but does have good hands. If given the opportunity he can contribute. Until then, he should remain on the waivers.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Greg Jennings hardly missed a beat in the transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers.  His TD total dipped from 12 to 9 without #4, but his receptions jumped from 53 to 80 and his yardage from 920 to 1292.  Aaron Rodgers should be even more comfortable this year, assuming the Packers aren’t serious about the Michael Vick Sweepstakes. 

Jennings had five 100+ yard games and had 90+ yards and/or a TD in 12 of his 16 games. Aside from TDs (3 home, 6 away) Jennings’ home-road numbers were nearly identical. The bulk of his receptions (48) were thrown ten yards or less, but he did show the ability to get deep with ten receptions on passes thrown over 20 yards, including four 41 yards or more.

Jennings is going in the second or third rounds of fantasy drafts and could be a great value depending on how late you get him. I’m expecting 85 receptions for 1300 yards and 10 TDs.

This is my preseason top ten.

Click here for my Midseason revised rankings.

Click here for my Second Half rankings.

1.  Larry Fitzgerald
It was actually close for me between Fitz and Andre Johnson, but after his playoff run, no way I can not chose #11.  He reached 1400 yards and double-digit TDs for the third time in his last four seasons.  Kurt Warner is back.  I knew about the leaping ability, his body control, great route running, and hands, but I did not know he had that extra gear that he kicked in during his long Super Bowl TD.  That HAD to scare Defensive Coordinators to death.

2.  Andre Johnson
I let the cat out of the bag already with Johnson, but a quick glance at his numbers (115 receptions, 1575 yards, 8 TDs) and you can see why he was 1-A prior to the playoffs.  His QB, Matt Schaub, has a tendency to get hurt.  Having his backup, Sage Rosenfels, leave for Minnesota hurts his value a little.  Not enough to knock him out of the second slot, but it’s a question mark that wasn’t there last year.

3. Calvin Johnson
Megatron is right on par with the top two.  He just happens to play for the lowly Lions.  He still managed 1331 yards and 12 TDs.  He’s just getting his feet wet in the league, and the Lions should be a little more stable at QB next year with Culpepper participating in OTAs and training camp.  Plus, they very well could be selecting a stud QB or Offensive Lineman in the draft.

4.  Reggie Wayne
Wayne had a down year for the Colts (1145 yards, 6 TDs), but with Marvin Harrison not returning, I see no reason why Wayne doesn’t bounce back with a 1400 yard, 10 TD season.  If the Colts didn’t have so many other weapons, I’d put him in the top three.

5.  Steve Smith
Smith had 1421 yards despite missing two games for breaking teammate Ray Lucas’ nose in the preseason, having a less than stellar QB, and playing on a run first team.  That speaks volumes about Smith’s ability.  I don’t think he’ll break anyone’s nose this year so he should play a full season, but the other two scenarios won’t change.  Still, he’s too good to move any further.

6.  Randy Moss
With Tom Brady back under Center, Randy Moss moves up a few notches from where he finished in 2008.  Will he snag another 23 TD passes?  Hardly.  How about close to 1500 yards?  Not likely.  However, a 1300 yards, 12 TD season should be easily attainable.

7.  Greg Jennings
Jennings meshed well with first time QB Aaron Rodgers proving he wasn’t a mirage created by Brett Favre’s gunslinging ways.  Jenning actually proved to be more of a possession receiver recording 55 first downs (compared to 37 in 2008).  He also improved by 27 receptions and 372 yards.  His TD total decreased from 12 to 9, but his yards per catch didn’t change dramatically (17.4 to 16.2).  Rodgers won’t have to deal with the Favremania this offseason and won’t have quite as much pressure on him to escape #4′s shadow.  They can just focus on playing football, something both Jennings and Rodgers do well.

8.  Anquan Boldin
Boldin would be higher if  he could stay healthy (16 missed games in six season) and if his contract status weren’t in question.  Playing opposite of Larry Fitzgerald helps.  Having Kurt Warner at QB also helps.  Even if he forced his way out of Arizona, he would still produce in a new system.  He’s that good.

9.  Roddy White
White was great last year catching 88 passes for 1382 yards and 7 TDs with Rookie QB Matt Ryan proving his 2007 numbers (83, 1202, 6) weren’t a fluke.  As Ryan grows as a QB so will Roddy.  Michael Jenkins took a step forward last year to give him a compliment at wideout.  Plus, Defenses have Michael Turner to worry about.

10. Terrell Owens
I’m sure you’re well aware that T.O. landed in Buffalo.  While it’s not an ideal situation, T.O. should be motivated to prove Dallas wrong.  He has double-digit TDs in seven of his last nine seasons.  Lee Evans is the best Wide Receiver mate that T.O. has seen in quite some time.  His deep ball threat will keep Safeties honest.  T.O. could be in for a very big year.  I have him at ten because being T.O., his mouth could get him into trouble at any time.

Images courtesy of Icon SMI

Past Top Tens
Running Backs

One thing I know for sure.  This offseason won’t be nearly as dramatic as last year’s for the Packers.  No worrying about who the QB is going to be.  No retirement and comebacks.  No media circus. 

The Offense is in good shape.  Rodgers looked solid for a debut QB.  Ryan Grant quietly ran for 1200 yards.  Brandon Jackson appeared to be a capable backup.  Greg Jennings hardly missed a beat without #4 and Driver had a solid campaign.  James Jones didn’t deliver as the #3 WR like many expected.  The Pack have enough young wides in place though, that I don’t see it being a key position to fill.  Donald Lee was decent at TE.  Even the backup QBs were addressed last year.

On Defense is where Green Bay needs to improve.  They took a major step back last year.  Injuries were part of the problem.  They have some key free agents on that side of the ball in Brady Popping, Mike Montgomery, Tramon Williams, and Atari Bigby.  Al Harris will turn 35 in December and Charles Woodson will turn 33 in October.  Clearly they will have to get  younger at Cornerback. They also need to give Aaron Kampman some help on the D Line.  Considering the QBs they faced in their division, it’s almost a crime that they only had 27 Sacks (25th in the league) last  year.

KFFL Free Agent Tracker: