LestersLegends.com

 
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By Jordan Hall
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The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best rotations in baseball. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley; the Phils have it put together when it comes to their starting five. Nobody questions the process that they went through to get themselves into such a dominating position in the NL East.
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The process did cost them however. While it has taken some time, the jewels of trades that brought them Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, have started to figure things out. Far out of the spotlight, two young pitchers have worked themselves into a spot where they can start paying dividends for the clubs who believed in them enough to pull the trigger on such noteworthy deals.
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After being sent north of the boarder to complete the Doc Halladay trade, Kyle Drabek’s career looked in doubt at many points over the past two seasons. Bouts of inconsistency, immaturity, and lack of command tarnished his prospect to the point where he had almost been written off.
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Three starts into 2012 though, he has all of the cynics eating their words as he appears on the cusp of a breakthrough.
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J.A. Happ took less time to make a name for himself after being traded; unfortunately it was not for good reasons as he struggled to live up to the Astros trading of Roy Oswalt for him. Parts of two disappointing seasons of left him as nothing more than a reminder of what the Astros once had. Suffering through a season with an ERA over 5 left him completely off the fantasy radar.
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That is until now. While his start has not been world beating, it certainly points towards growth; something both the Astros and your fantasy team should take note of.
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Kyle Drabek has always had the stuff. He can dial it up and buckle a hitter. It was always the poise in question. Things seem to be working themselves out nicely in this regard. He seems to have dialed back on his fastball, trading velocity for command; the mark of a maturing pitcher.
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Through his first three starts, he has posted more than useful fantasy numbers. His ERA of 2 and a WHIP of 1.28 are certainly usable. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning at this point. He has walked an alarming 10 batters in his first 18 innings but he’s missing bats so regularly that it’s fairly easy to overlook.
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J.A. Happ has not posted as gaudy numbers this season as Drabek but he is proving to be a useful commodity in his own right. His peripherals are useful, he’s striking out a healthy amount of batters, and seems to be improving with each start. 7 walks over 16 innings is also a good sign.
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The biggest obstacle to Happ’s immediate value is his team. The Astros are obviously not providing him with a lot of run support. The offense is sad as all get out and it doesn’t appear that help is on the way. Couple that with the terrible bullpen giving away victories and Happ seems to be a fish out of water.
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Drabek and Happ share many characteristics, the least of which is not their minor league pedigree. Both came up as highly touted prospects, oozing tools and promise. That kind of talent doesn’t just bail on a player. It can be forgotten on misused, but it never leaves. Both of these players still harbor the talent that made teams give up their centerpieces for them. This is something that they have obviously never forgotten and neither should you.
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Is it safe to say that Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ have turned the corner and are on their way to superstardom? Absolutely not. What is safe to say however, is that they are off to hot starts and have given reason to believe that they, at their best, are quality pitchers.
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Sooner or later, somebody in your league is going to pick these guys up and ride their breakouts to success. I firmly believe that these two players are on their way to greatness. These are guys that can easily round out your rotation for this year and quite possibly could anchor your staffs in coming years. They have risen from the ashes to reclaim their stars, you may want to give them a chance to do it for you.
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I would be happy to answer your fantasy questions or give advice. Drop me a line at www.twitter.com/lefthandsmoke23
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Also check out:

• Is Todd Helton Done?
• Is Denard Span Back?
• Should You Bail on Adam Wainwright?
• Is Jake Peavy Back?
• Should You Be Concerned With Kevin Youkilis?

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Houston Astros starter J.A. Happ struggled mightily in his first full season with the club, going 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. After posting a 3.27 ERA in his first 289 innings, that wasn’t what they expected from Happ when he was the key piece in the Roy Oswalt trade.
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Perhaps he didn’t deal well with being dealt from a yearly contender to one of the worst teams in the game. At 29 though, there is still plenty of opportunities to turn things around.
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That’s what he has done so far in his two starts on the young season. He has faced a tough schedule with the Braves followed by the Marlins, but he has held his own. Happ sits at 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. The good news for fantasy owners is the fact that he has racked up thirteen strikeouts in twelve innings.
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His early 9.8 K/9 ratio is much better than his 7.16 K/9 career mark. Given his track record vs. his small 2012 sample size, I expect that number to regress back to the norm.
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Happ is readily available in most fantasy leagues. He is owned in less than five percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues. Should you run out and add him to your fantasy rotation?
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Not just yet. When his match-ups are favorable feel free to throw him out there as a streaming option. Until then, just keep an eye on him. He has the ability to get the job done, but given the state of the Astros I’d suggest making him prove it more before picking him up and hanging onto him.
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Also check out:

• Should You Own Adam LaRoche?
• Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Picks
• Overrated Fantasy Baseball Players
• Closer Talk
• Fantasy Baseball 2012: Early Trade Targets

Be sure to enter the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Team Name Contest
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Playing on a team that finished with a Major League worst 56-106 record doesn’t get many people noticed. Neither does a .276-26-2-12-7 line. That said, Houston second baseman Jose Altuve is a player to at least keep an eye on.
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His numbers obviously don’t come out and grab you, but if you projected the numbers out to a 162 game schedule he would finish with 74 runs, six HRs, 34 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. There isn’t much there in the power category, but he can be helpful in runs, stolen bases, and possibly average.
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His minor league numbers suggest that he can be useful in those categories. He hit .324 in the minors, and the .276 average in the bigs is pretty impressive considering he jumped Triple-A ball. He scored three runs for every four games he played and stole one base for every three games he played.
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He will be turn 22 early in the season and given the way he handled himself in his first taste of the majors, I think he could be a bench option at second base or a decent option for your middle infield slot.
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What has me especially optimistic was his low BABIP for a player with his speed. It was just .309. He was at .438 in A+ ball and at .373 for Double-A Corpus Christi. If he can get that number up even into the .340s his average, runs, and stolen bases are sure to climb.
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Altuve has a Mock Draft Central ADP of 273, which puts him in the 23rd round of 12-team fantasy drafts. With the potential to hit .300 with 20+ stolen bases, he’s not a bad option there.
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Also check out:

• 2012 Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball First Base Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Options
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball Closer Options
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
• AL Only Fantasy Baseball Rankings
• NL Only Fantasy Baseball Rankings

We have teamed up with DraftStreet.com to offer an exclusive free contest to LestersLegends.com readers. The freeroll will have $100 in cash prizes, the top 5 get paid, and it is totally free to sign up. Click here to get in on the action.
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Brett Wallace was hitting .143 before taking the field on April 8th. He collected three hits that day, the first of ten multiple-hit games that he would have over his next 21 games. Wallace has hit .456 over that span.
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The power numbers haven’t followed. Though he hit a home run that day, he hasn’t hit one since. Oddly he had three RBI in his first six games and only six since despite hitting 313 points higher.
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The alarms are ringing for a big-time drop if you look at his BABIP, which at .471 is second only to Matt Holliday’s .492.
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Side note: If you’re interested in checking out BABIP and other interesting statistics, go to www.fangraphs.com.
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While that .471 BABIP is unrealistic, which in turn makes his .382 batting average unrealistic, Wallace has had high BABIP at every level.
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Single-A 2008:  .388
Double-A 2008:  .385
Double-A 2009:  .348
Triple-A 2009 (A’s):  .341
Triple-A 2009 (Cardinals):  .335
Triple-A 2010:  .343

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Even last year when he hit .222 with the Astros his BABIP was .326.
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What makes Wallace’s BABIP this year more impressive is the reduction of his strikeout rate from 34.7 percent to 20.2 percent. He’s putting the ball in play more frequently and he’s still finding the right places to hit the ball.
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I believe his will continue to be an asset in the batting average category. No, he’s not going to hit .380+ all year, but he has the tools to hit north of .300.
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Unfortunately he’s not going to help in the power department. He combined to hit 20 HRs in his three minor league stops in 2009 and 18 in 2010 at the Triple-A level, but he has just three home runs in 233 major league at bats. He may eventually develop into a 15-20 per year home run hitter, but that will take some time to grow into it.
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Brett Wallace won’t be your prototypical fantasy first baseman, but he does have value.
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Also check out Will Jason Kubel Cool Off?

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Carlos Lee’s days of 30+ home run seem like a distant memory. In fact, his HR totals have been in the decline since 2006.
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2006:  37
2007:  32
2008:  28
2009:  26
2010:  24
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While two dozen home runs are nothing to sneeze at, they are not the mark of an elite power hitter anymore. Lee will turn 35 in June so a return to 30 HR territory seems unlikely.
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His power wasn’t the only thing to go in 2010 for Carlos Lee. His streak of four consecutive .300+ seasons came to a crashing end. He didn’t just dip below the mark though, he plummeted by hitting .246. He struggled both at home (.258) and away (.234), in day games (.237) and at night (.251), against righties (.238), and even his .277 average against lefties was well below his .292 career mark.
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He failed to score even 70 runs for the third straight year. He’s averaging 64.3 runs per season over that stretch. Once a quiet double-digit base stealer, Lee has totaled just 12 during that same three-year stretch.
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So we have an outfielder with fleeting power that doesn’t score many runs or pick up steals. Are his days of fantasy relevance over?
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Not so fast. As a career .287 hitter I expect Lee to rebound in that department. He got off to such a slow start hitting .206 in April and May that it’s no wonder he hit just .246.
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There were bright spots though in June and August when Carlos Lee looked like his old self. In June he hit .283 with 13 runs, five HRs, and 20 RBI. In August he hit .288 with 15 runs, five HRs, and 25 RBI.
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His overall RBI total of 89 wasn’t quite up to snuff, as he’s had at least 99 for seven straight years. Considering his batting average, that’s a pretty good number though.
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Another positive is his first base eligibility. Being able to plug him in at 1B or OF is an advantage. Perhaps that, and name recognition, has him a little bloated in fantasy drafts given the age, lack or runs and stolen bases, and diminishing HR and RBI totals. Mock Draft Central has him at 133, which puts him in the 12th round.
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That’s a little early for my tastes, especially considering he could be traded to a contender as a salary dump, where he could be a part-time player, much like Lance Berkman was last year.
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While I don’t think Carlos Lee’s fantasy days are over, I don’t think he’s a good enough value. If he slips in your draft, he’s worth a shot, but don’t pay face value on his past production. Look for someone with a little more upside.
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What’s your take on Carlos Lee?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Maybe has-been is too strong of a word for Berkman, but his HR total has dipped three straight years, and his numbers took a pretty sharp decline last year thanks to injuries. He’s no longer considered a second round pick. Even the third round seems premature for my 11th ranked first basemen (click to see rankings).

His 2009 dip is actually not that uncommon for Berkman. His even year/odd year splits since 2002 are staggering.

Even year averages:  .309, 104.8 runs, 36.5 HRs, 119 RBIs, 9.5 SBs
Odd year aveages:  ..283, 88.5 runs, 27 HRs, 89.3 RBIs, 5.8 SBs

If his eight-year trend were to continue, his fantasy owners would be in store for a big payday. For a guy that turns 34 tomorrow (happy early birthday Lance), I don’t quite see that happening. At his age, injuries are more likely to pop up, and you’re more likely to take longer to recover from them, especially as the season wears on. 

The good news if you’re trying to draft him, he’s historically does the bulk of his damage in the first half of the season. His  OPS (.994 compared to .937) is significantly better before the All-Star game. His AB/HR ratio is 15.3 before the break and 18.9 after it. He also has 0.76 RBIs per game before the break and 0.63 after it.  The past two years, in particular, he had 40 HRs before the break and 14 after it.

My suggestion if you take Berkman in your draft is to try to move him in July or early August. Get good value as you head down the home stretch.

Prediction:  .300, 90 runs, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 4 SBs

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin

Now an early look at the NL Central.

1. Can the Cubs’ offense bounce back?
Geovany Soto had a miserable season hitting .218. He was brilliant in Triple-A Iowa in 2007 and had an amazing Rookie season. I fully expect him to bounce back in 2010. Even if he is an average of his past two years, he’d have a decent season. Just don’t reach for him. Assuming Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy, they should have better seasons as well. Marlon Byrd hit 70 percent of his HRs at Rangers Ballpark so I expect him to take a step back in Chicago. At his age (34), I don’t expect Derrek Lee to match the 35 HRs and 111 RBIs. As a whole, though, I do think the Cubs will be much-improved on offense next year thanks to the addition by subtraction of Milton Bradley.

2.  Can Carlos Marmol get it done at Closer?
His BAA was equally nasty as a closer and a setup man, though his ERA and WHIP both improved when he took over at closer. He has both the stuff and demeanor to get the job done. I think he can be a high-end closer next year despite entering the season with just23 career Saves.

3.  Is Joey Votto set to bust out big time?
Joey’s average and OPS  soared dramatically in his second full season. Despite playing in 20 fewer games he had 13 more runs, six more doubles, one more HR, the same amount of RBIs, and 11 more walks. As long as he stays healthy, Votto should emerge as one of the games best hitters.

4. How about Jay Bruce?
I’m not sure he’ll light the world on fire, but he should be improved. Hard not to when you hit .223. I’m encouraged by the way he played in September when he hit .353 with 4 HRs and 16 RBIs in 34 ABs.

5. Is Lance Berkman’s dip a sign of things to come?
I don’t think so. He’s about as steady as they come. Gone are the days of 40 HRs and 120 RBIs, but he should still be good for 30 & 110.

6. Is Tommy Manzelli going to be a viable fantasy option?
I don’t think so. He didn’t exactly put up monster numbers for Triple-A Round Rock last year, hitting .289 with 68 runs, 9 HRs, 56 RBIs, and 12 SBs in 530 ABs.

7.  Is Casey McGehee for real?
He had an impressive Rookie season hitting .301 with 58 runs, 16 HRs, and 66 RBIs in 355 ABs. I like the way he responded in September hitting .337 with 5 HRs and 26 RBIs after struggling in August hitting .241. I wouldn’t want him as a starter, but his 2B/3B eligibility make him a decent bench option.

8.  Can Garrett Jones continue to be a power threat?
He certainly hit his share with 21 in 314 ABs for a 14.9 AB/HR ratio. It is highly unlikely that he can maintain that ratio. His OPS of .939 was also significanly higher than the majority of his minor league stints.

9.  Will Mark McGwire be a distraction?
I don’t think so. He came clean early enough where is shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Cards.

10.  Will Ryan Franklin continue to be an elite closer?
Franklin was one of the surprise closers last year when he recorded 38 saves with a 1.92 ERA. His numbers were significantly worse after the All-Star break.

0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, .165 BAA
3.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .284 BAA

While he was a pleasant surprise last year, I see no reason to believe he can match his 2009 production.