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The Jacksonville Jaguars can’t be pleased with star running back Maurice Jones-Drew missing the OTAs, but of course their preference is for the team to be united. For the fantasy owner, whose team is constructed of players from a multitude of teams, is this cause for concern?
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My gut says no.
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For starters, they are voluntary. Mojo is entering his seventh year in the league and has been a dynamic performer each and every year. He knows what it takes to get ready for the rigors of the season. It’s not like he’s sitting on his couch playing some advanced copy of Madden 13. He is preparing for another season.
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For the record, the past two years he has not attended OTAs. The past two years (one by choice, one by lockout) he has worked out on his own. Despite knee concerns he combined for 3621 total yards and 18 total touchdowns.
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Oh, and he managed to run away with the NFL rushing title last year.
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There aren’t many players with his consistency. Since taking the lead back role, MJD has ran for at least 1324 yards with at least 317 receiving yards. For those of you in PPR leagues, he has had at least 34 catches in those three years as well.
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Mojo’s touchdown production has gone down from 13.5 TDs/yr over his first four seasons to 9.0/yr over the past two, but that has been more of a function of Jacksonville’s offense rather than an indictment on Jones-Drew. Besides, who’s complaining about a two-year average of 1800+ total yards and nine scores?
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Mojo is a gamer and is still at the top of his game. If he starts to miss mandatory workouts then you can start to go in panic mode. For right now, just take a deep breath and trust him.
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That said, if you are in a keeper league and his owner is the panicking type, it wouldn’t hurt to inquire about him.
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Also check out:

• 2012 Early Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2012 Early Fantasy Football TE Rankings
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Running Backs
• 2012 Top Five Rookie Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
• 2012 NFL Draft First Round Skill Players: A Fantasy Perspective

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Blaine Gabbert is one of the few rookie quarterbacks that is going to get a chance to start out of the gate. That’s if he can beat out incumbent David Garrard.
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While Garrard is not a bad quarterback by any means, there is definitely an argument to be made for starting the Gabbert era sooner rather than later.
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Garrard has been a highly accurate quarterback, completing over 60 percent of his passes for the past four season. Over that stretch he was on target 62.7 percent of the time. Considering he hasn’t exactly had elite receivers to work with makes the numbers that much more impressive. Garrard threw for 71 touchdowns with just 41 interceptions.
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He has also shown the ability to deliver with his feet, averaging 277.3 yards at a 4.2 ypc clip over the past four years. Garrard added another 11 rushing touchdowns to his totals.
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So why would you want to replace an effective quarterback?
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For starters, he’s 33. I know Brett Favre and Warren Moon (among others) continued to play at a high level long after turning 33. There have been even more quarterbacks that have gone the wrong direction. Besides, when the Jaguars used a tenth round pick on Gabbert, any notion that Garrard was still their franchise quarterback was quickly put to rest.
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Plus, Garrard’s effectiveness has not translated to team success. Since Garrard made a name for himself in 2007 during the Jaguars playoff run the team has been a combined 20-28. When you’re not winning and you have a shiny new toy on the sidelines, the calls from the fans for a change can become deafening.
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Speaking of fans, as a NFL team that is less stable financially than most, I’m sure they are cognizant of how important Gabbert could be for ticket sales. Jags fans have watched Garrard play. Aside from winning, the next closest thing to putting butts in the seats is hope.
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Even if Gabbert starts, his production will likely be inconsistent. The condensed training camp simply limited the amount of reps he received. I wouldn’t hesitate to draft Gabbert in dynasty leagues or two-quarterback leagues, but I’d employ a wait-and-see approach in redraft leagues.
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What’s your take?
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football RB Rankings - PPR
• 2011 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football DEF Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football IDP Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Football K Rankings

Steve Mitchell/US Presswire
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Rashad Jennings has earned a bigger role. Not only because Maurice Jones-Drew’s knee has been an issue for the second straight offseason, but because he’s been effective. The folks at DraftStreet Review are counting on Jennings as a sleeper, as are many in the fantasy industry.
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In 2009 Jennings ran the ball 39 times for 202 yards and a score, which was good for a 5.2 yards per carry average. He also ran for a touchdown. His carries were increased to 84 last year, and he responded with 459 yards (5.5 ypc) and four touchdowns. Jennings also saw his production as a receiver improve from 16 catches for 101 yards (6.3  yards per catch) to 26 catches for 223 yards (8.6 yards per catch).
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Jennings got the last two starts for the Jags last year and averaged 101.5 total yards with one touchdown. He won’t get extensive work like that unless Mojo goes down, but he can be still effective if he gets ten touchdowns.
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Not counting his two starts Jennings had ten touches in three of the 14 remaining games. In those games he averaged 73 total yards. Those are killer fantasy numbers, but solid in deeper leagues. His pass catching ability gives him a little bump in PPR leagues.
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Mojo had 312 carries in 2009 and 299 last year. Considering he missed the final two games, he actually had more carries per game last year (21.4) than in 2009 (19.5). Last year marked the first time MJD failed to reach 40 catches, but he still managed 34. He combined for 23.3 touches per game over the past two season. Those are simply too many touches, especially when you have a capable running mate. It’s worked with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. It’s worked with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Teams can produce two viable fantasy running backs.
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The Jaguars beat writers are suggesting a larger role for Jennings, which makes sense given the heavy workload that has defined the past two seasons for Mojo and the subsequent knee issues. John Oehser wrote on Jaguars.com that “while Jones-Drew indeed is the face and in a very real sense the spirit of the franchise – and while his role and production remain critical to the Jaguars – the NFL in recent years more and more is a two-back league. And for the Jaguars, getting Jennings involved in ’11 is likely to be key. He also noted that Jaguars’ General Manager Gene Smith praised Jennings’ receiving skills earlier this offseason.
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Jennings isn’t just a change of pace back. At 6’1″, 228 pounds he has the size to be a finisher and a goal line back. Maurice Jones-Drew thrives around the stripe, but perhaps that’s a duty that Jennings can share if he shows an affinity for it. He displayed that ability at Liberty where he ran for 15 touchdowns in his Junior year and 17 as a Senior. I certainly don’t expect a 50/50 split by any means
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Currently Jennings is the 42nd rated running back according to MockDraftCentral, which puts him as a RB4. That’s about where I’d want him. I could see using him as a RB3 in PPR leagues, but we truly have to wait and see what kind of workload he actually gets.
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My pals over at Fantasy Knuckleheads also tout Jennings as a sleeper. Their strategy is to not only handcuff MJD with Jennings, but “for owners who miss out on MJD early to take Jennings once their core of starting running backs is in place. This will enable them to start Jennings as a possible flex option even if MJD does start every game. Or, if MJD is eventually knocked out, Jennings will provide owners with a nice piece of trade bait if they are in need of a player at another position. Sound bit of advice from the Knuckleheads.
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The AFC South features three of the top running backs in the league.
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Arian Foster is arguably the top ranked fantasy player in the league. The furthest I could see him tumble, at least at this point, is to three. He racked up 1616 yards and 16 touchdowns. As good as those numbers are, he also caught 66 passes for 604 yards and two more scores. Week in and week out he was one of the top fantasy players in the league. Ben Tate and Derrick Ward will get some carries, but neither threaten the stud running back.
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One of the players (along with Adrian Peterson) that could conceivably go before Foster is Chris Johnson, who was generally the number one pick in last year’s fantasy drafts. Johnson’s “down year” looks like a career year for anybody else. He had 1609 total yards (1364 rushing, 245 receiving) and 12 touchdowns (11 rushing, one receiving). The Titans are going to be more creative next year to get him the ball in space, so CJ2K should be particularly effective in PPR leagues. He doesn’t really have a threat for carries and is a likely top three pick.
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Maurice Jones-Drew keeps turning out big year’s as well. There were concerns about his knee heading into last season, but he responded with a 1641 total yard (1324 rushing, 317 receiving), seven touchdown (five rushing, two receiving) season. Rashard Jennings will get some carries, but isn’t a big threat week-to-week. MoJo will probably be a top five to eight pick depending on your format. Personally, I prefer some of the younger guys like Rahsard Mendenhall and LeSean McCoy.
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Indianapolis is the only stick situation because Joseph Addai is a free agent. He is expected to return to the Colts though, and his knowledge of the system and ability to pick up the blitz will likely keep him as the main back. Donald Brown and rookie Delone Carter will also vie for touches.
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Also check out:

• AFC East Running Back Situations
• AFC North Running Back Situations
• AFC East Quarterback Situations
• AFC North Quarterback Situations
• AFC South Quarterback Situations
• AFC West Quarterback Situations
• NFC East Quarterback Situations
• NFC North Quarterback Situations
• NFC South Quarterback Situations
• NFC West Quarterback Situations

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The AFC South made a big splash in the quarterback department in the recent NFL Draft.
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The division continues to be dominated by the Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning is consistently among the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. He never has a shortage of weapons, and even when they break down like Dallas Clark last year, someone else (Jacob Tamme) steps up. One thing that needed more than a temporary fix was their offensive line. The Colts walked away from the draft with tackle Anthony Castonzo and guard Ben Ijalana. With better protection look for Manning to turn in another impressive season. Would you expect anything less?
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Matt Schuab regressed a little statistically, but that can be expected when you have the NFL rushing leader.  He still threw for 4370 yards and 24 touchdowns (12 INTs). With Andre Johnson, one of the more physical receivers in the league, look for Schaub to remain a quality QB1. The team did not give him any new weapons in the NFL Draft, instead using their first five picks on defense.
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In Jacksonville David Garrard will hold down the fort until Blaine Gabbert is ready to take control of the team. Garrard had a solid year throwing for 2734 yards and 23 TDs (15 INTs) while adding another 279 yards and five scores on the ground. The Jags are limited in the playmaker department. Marcedes Lewis scored ten touchdowns, but had just seven scores in four seasons before busting out in a contract year. Mike Sims-Walker is a free agent that will likely have a new home in 2011. Garrard is a quarterback to use during the bye weeks and little more.
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The Titans turned heads by taking Jake Locker with the eight pick in the draft. He will likely start the year on the sidelines while a veteran (possibly Matt Hasselbeck) acts as a bridge. Despite the presence of Kenny Britt, this is not a great quarterback situation. We’ll have to wait and see how this one plays out.
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Also check out:

• AFC East Quarterback Situations
• AFC North Quarterback Situations

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

If you look at the aggregate numbers Mike Sims-Walker had a good season. He caught 63 passes for 869 yards and 7 TDs. In Weeks 2 through 11 he averaged 86.8 yards per game with 6 TDs in 8 games (he missed Week 5 and had a bye in Week 7). That’s an average of 13.18 fantasy points per game, which justifies his ADP of 18 among WRs (52 overall) according to Mock Draft Central. Who wouldn’t want those numbers?

There is more to the story though. For instance, he finished with an average of 29.2 yards over the last six weeks of the year, scoring just one TD over that stretch. Aside from a Week 15 six catch, 64 yard, TD performance, he was unusable in down the stretch.

He was also a guy to avoid like the plague in road games. His splits are staggering:

Home:  8 games, 44 catches, 637 yards, 6 TDs
Road:  7 games, 19 catches, 232 yards, 1 TD

What are you supposed to do with that?

It’s not like the Jaguars surrounded him with playmakers to take away some of the defensive focus on him in passing situations. Sure they have Maurice Jones-Drew, who commands the majority of the attention on offense, but that’s it. Mike Thomas (48, 453, 1), Troy Williamson, Kassim Osgood offer little help at WR. Marcedes Lewis (32, 518, 2) is a decent option at TE, but it’s not like teams are game planning for him.

Plus, he’s going to face some tough cornerbacks at home like Champ Bailey (Week 1), Asante Samuel (Week 3), Cortland Finnegan (Week 6), and Nnamdi Asomugha (Week 14). He’s going to have to be more productive on the road with that schedule.

These factors have Sims-Walker lower on my board (click to see my 2010 fantasy WR rankings) than the majority. I simply do not trust him as a WR2, especially one that is going off the board in the 5th round.

Prediction:  70 catches, 910 yards, 5 TDs

What do you expect from Mike Sims-Walker?

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The Jaguars could have the steepest drop-off from their top fantasy option to their other options.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:  Moderate
The Jags take on the Raiders (home), Colts (away), and Redskins (home). The schedule looks very promising for Maurice Jones-Drew. The passing game could really struggle though.

Five Star Fantasy Options
Maurice Jones-Drew – Mojo had no problem assuming the role as primary ball carrier with Fred Taylor moving on to New England. He had 1765 total yards (1391 rushing) and 16 TDs (15 rushing). There is a case to take him #1 overall with Chris Johnson’s potential holdout and Adrian Peterson’s fumbling issues.

Four Star Fantasy Options
None

Three Star Fantasy Options
None

Two Star Fantasy Options
Mike Sims-Walker – Sims-Walker had a solid season with 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 TDs. He has good size and speed, but will need help, be it from his receiver mates or creative play calling, to keep him effective. He failed to top 64 yards the final six games. In fact, he only had 175 yards in those games (29.2 ypg).

Marcedes Lewis – Lewis had an excellent yard per catch average (16.2). Still, with 518 yards last year he makes for a solid backup fantasy TE.

One Star Fantasy Options
David Garrard – Garrard is simply not a good fantasy QB. His career highs in passing yards (3620) and TDs (18) just don’t translate into a quality fantasy QB. He has ran for 300+ yards in each of the past two seasons, but there is zero upside to Garrard. His home-road splits are ridiculous. 
- Home:  2019 yards, 12 TD,  5 INTs
- Away:  1578 yards, 3 TDs, 5 INTs

Mike Thomas – Thomas showed some flashes last year, and while he managed at least 52 yards on six occasions, he never topped 65 yards. Plus, he had just 1 TD.

Jaguars Defense/Special Teams – They have some good match-ups with Buffalo (Week 5), Kansas City (7), Cleveland (11), and Oakland (14). They had just 14 sacks and 15 INTs last year though. They are no more than a spot start.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.