LestersLegends.com

.
Obviously the state of the NFL is in complete turmoil. Will there be a season? Hard to say, but we have to still prepare like there will be one. We continue our series of analyzing the number one pick in 2011 fantasy football drafts with Jamaal Charles. Charles finished second in the league last year with 1467 yards. He did so while sharing carries with Thomas Jones, who actually had 15 more carries than Charles. Jones ran for 896 yards. Jones’ 3.7 yards per carry paled in comparison to Charles’ 6.4 ypc, which was second in the league to Michael Vick. It’s mind-boggling why Jones got more work, but rest assured that won’t be the case in 2011.
.
Charles was also effective catching the ball out of the backfield, adding 468 yards on 45 receptions. He had 40 catches in 2009 for 297 yards. With more touches in 2011, Charles can challenge for the league lead in total yards.
.
Initially there were questions as to whether Jamaal could hold up for a full season. The bulk of the damage Charles did in 2009 came in the second half when he had fresh legs. Charles more than put those questions to rest. In his last 24 games Charles has averaged 127.5 total yards per game. He’s every bit as explosive as any running back in the league, sporting a career 6.0 ypc. Charles tied for sixth with ten 20+ yard runs. Despite basically playing only half a season in 2009 he was tied for eight with nine 20+ yard runs.
.
The knock on Charles is his lack of touchdowns. He combined for eight (five rushing, three receiving) last year and nine (seven rushing, one receiving, one kick return) in 2009. Four of his five rushing touchdowns last year where from the five yard line and in proving he’s capable of scoring on tough runs. I expect him to continue to excel near the goal line, thanks in part to his versatility in the passing game and the emergence of Dwayne Bowe. I also think he will break more long touchdown runs next year.
.
Personally I wouldn’t take Charles with the number one pick, but there is certainly a case to be made, especially if he receives 300+ carries.
.
.
Also check out:

• Why Michael Vick Should be the #1 Fantasy Pick
• Why Arian Foster Should be the #1 Fantasy Pick
• Why Adrian Peterson Should be the #1 Fantasy Pick

.
I’m sure you’ve heard by now that Matt Cassel underwent an appendectomy. There is talk that he may try to gut it out and play through the pain. Given the Chiefs’ ties to Bill Belichick, I caution you that it is likely just gamesmanship. The Chiefs will likely play it safe and rest Cassel this week despite facing the Chargers in a key AFC West showdown.
.
Regardless if he plays, he’ll be in quite a bit of discomfort. He’d also be facing San Diego’s top-ranked pass defense (186.3  yards allowed per game). He simply cannot be in your fantasy lineup. Since the Chiefs have such a tough draw, I would not recommend using Brodie Croyle if he gets the nod.
.
You likely weren’t going to use Cassel against the Chargers anyway so let’s get to the other decisions. What should you do with Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and Tony Moeaki?
.
With Cassel likely out, I expect a heavy dose of the run. The Chargers have been effective stopping the run as well, ranking fifth with just 95.3 yards per game, but Kansas City is not an ordinary team when it comes to running the ball. They lead the league with 175.2 yards per game. I like both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones to continue putting up big numbers.

Tony Moeaki has been good enough at times, but he is not an option that I would want to roll with in the fantasy playoffs against the top-ranked pass defense with a backup quarterback. That’s just too big of a risk.
.
What about Dwayne Bowe? I had him as my top-ranked receiver for the second straight week, and I’m beginning to think that was a jinx. He got shut down last week by Champ Bailey and the Broncos. Then his quarterback has surgery. Clearly he can’t be the top option anymore this week, but he still has to be in your fantasy lineup. He’s just too good to sit.
.

Also check out:

• Sneaky Week 14 Fantasy Football Pick-ups
• Week 14 Get ‘em or Don’t Sweat ‘em Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 14 Fantasy QB Rankings
• Week 14 Fantasy RB Rankings
• Week 14 Fantasy WR Rankings
• Week 14 Fantasy TE Rankings
• Week 14 Fantasy K Rankings
• Week 14 Fantasy DEF Rankings
• Week 14 Fantasy IDP Rankings
• Week 14 Start/Sit Advice
• Week 14 Fantasy Sleepers

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

This shouldn’t even be a question after the way he ripped through opposing defenses for 1126 total yards (968 rushing) and eight touchdowns over the final eight games last year. You’re talking about 20 fantasy points per game. That puts him in the conversation with Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew territory.

Yet, his ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 25 (15th RB). I actually have him a few notches lower on my RB totem pole (click to see my rankings). I know he’s just 23 (24 in December) without a lot of wear on the tires, but that’s just it. He has 257 career carries. He doesn’t have a track record to show he can handle 250+ carries. With Thomas Jones in town, who knows if he’ll get that opportunity.

Thomas Jones just keeps producing. The Bears drafted Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones responded with 1335 yards. In Benson’s second year with Chicago TJ ran for 1210 yards. He then went to the Jets and ran for 1119 yards. He had just one TD for the Jets and approaching 30. Surely he’s on the decline. Guess again. He ran for 1312 yards and 13 TDs as he turned 30. Fluke year. No more, right? Wrong. He had 1402 yards and 14 TDs last year. He didn’t go to the Chiefs to quietly wind out his NFL career. The Chiefs didn’t bring him in to cheer on Jamaal Charles. Jones will get his carries. Currently Jones is listed as the Chiefs’ starting RB. I know that it’s a ploy to motivate Charles, but if Charles has fumbling issues persists (Charles fumbles every 51 carries, Jones every 175) don’t think that Todd Haley won’t sit Charles to get his message across.

Plus, while Jamaal’s numbers were impressive, you have to consider the fact that he had fresh legs when taking over the starting job in Week 10. The same cannot be said for the opposing defenses he faced. Speaking of the opposing defenses he faced, they weren’t exactly the who’s who of 2009 NFL run defenses. He picked apart the Raiders (29th ranked run defense), the Chargers (20th), the Bills (30th), the Browns (28th), and the Broncos (26th) twice. He only faced two stout run defenses, the Steelers (3rd) and the Bengals (7th). Pittsburgh kept him in check while he ran for 102 yards against Cincinnati. I don’t mean to diminish his accomplishments, but 75 percent of his games came against run defenses that ranked 20th or lower (62.5 percent against 26th or lower) that had a lot more wear and tear than he had.

I still think he will have a good year, with some major offensive explosions mixed in, but I don’t see him going on a run like he went on last year. A lot of things were aligned just right for Charles to do a Chris Johnson impersonation. I would take Charles as my RB1 if I went with a QB (Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees) or WR (Andre Johnson) with my first pick. Otherwise, I would wait and hope to get him as an RB2.

Would you trust Jamaal Charles as your #1 fantasy running back?

The Chiefs were 25th in total offense, but finished just outside the top ten in rushing offense thanks to Jamaal Charles’ Chris Johnson impersonation from Week 10 on. Of course, they muddied his fantasy waters by bringing in Thomas Jones. I don’t expect the team to be much better, but there will be some viable fantasy options once again.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule:   Moderate
They have a couple of tough games against San Diego at home in Week 14 and in Tennessee in Week 16. Between that they get to take on the Rams in St. Louis.

Five Star Fantasy Options
None

Four Star Fantasy Options
Jamaal Charles – The way  he finished the season averaging 143.1 total yards (121 rushing) and a TD over the last eight games was fantasy gold last year. I would have had higher expectations for Charles if Thomas Jones wasn’t brought int.

Three Star Fantasy Options
Thomas Jones – He’s not the primary ball carrier, but Charles has just 257 career carries. There is no proof that he can carry the load for a full season. If he goes down, Jones’ becomes a legit RB2. He has value in flex leagues because he’ll likely get the ball in the red zone.

Dwayne Bowe – Bowe was a major disappointment last year as he quickly became entrenched in Todd Haley’s doghouse. He has the potential to breakout, but do temper your expectations until he proves he’s taking the right mental approach.

Two Star Fantasy Options
Matt Cassel –  With Charlie Weiss on board, I expect more out of Cassel. That depends on the protection his line gives him. He has two RBs that can catch the ball out of the backfield, as well as Bowe and Chris Chambers, who re-emerged last year. He has the potential to be a solid QB2 this year.

Chris Chambers – Almost as improbable as Jamaal Charles’ finish was Chambers. He had nine catches for 122 yards and a score in seven games with San Diego. He took off with the Chiefs catching 36 passes for 608 yards and 4 TDs in nine games.  His upside is limited, but he gives you good depth at WR.

One Star Fantasy Option
Dexter McCluster – He could be this year’s version of Percy Harvin. He’s super athletic and can do a variety of things on offense. Consistency will likely be an issue.

Chiefs Defense/Special Teams – The Chiefs have some nice games on their schedule such as Browns in Week 2, the Bills in Week 8, the Raiders in Week 9, the Seahawks in Week 12, and the Rams in Week 15. They had just 22 sacks and 15 INTs last year so they should probably go undrafted. You can pick them up for a spot start if they show improvement.

Click here for additional 2010 NFL Team Previews.

Who says you can’t kill two birds with one stone…or in this case sink two players’ fantasy value at once. That’s exactly what happened when Thomas Jones signed with the Chiefs. Clearly any high that Jamaal Charles’ owners have been on following his impressive run at the end of the year came to an abrupt halt at the news of Jones’ signing. While I still think Charles will be a solid fantasy starter, I think I can put the Chris Johnson Lite moniker away.

Meanwhile Jones will take a back seat to Charles. I can’t comprehend why he wouldn’t go to a contender. He could have been a backup for Minnesota or Philadelphia. He could have been in a 50-50 split in San Diego. He could have been the lead dog in Houston. Even bad teams like Seattle, Detroit, and Tampa Bay would have been better options for he would at least be the lead back. Being a backup for a dismal team makes little sense to me.

Jones could have been a decent #2 or #3 RB depending on where he landed. Now I see him more as a low-end #3 or a #4. I’d put him lower, but he does seem to produce even when the odds are against him.

I’ve been invited to participate in Fantasy Trader’s fantasy football roundtable.

This week’s topic:
If one were to prorate Jamaal Charles’ final eight games of 2009 to a full season, he’d handily outscore Adrian Peterson and betters all RB’s not named Chris Johnson in PPR formats. What are your expectations for Charles in 2010?

Click here for the full article.

My response:
I began calling him Chris Johnson Lite at the end of the year because of his ability to rip off a long run or two seemingly every game. He posted a phenomenal 5.9 yards per carry, and had 1131 total yards with 8 TDs in the last eight weeks. That’s 141.4 yards and a score per game for half a year.

His beastly numbers impressed me enough to have him as my 11th rated RB heading into next year. While I can’t dismiss his numbers, I do get that Steve Slaton type vibe from Charles. I just don’t know if there’s an encore.

Kansas City has just about nothing going for them on offense outside of Charles. My guess is he’ll face a lot more eight and nine man fronts. Teams will dare the Chiefs to beat them with the run. I just don’t know that he can stand up to that sort of defensive pressure.

Jamaal Charles is the type of player that I will most likely not own in 2010. I can’t imagine a league with an owner that doesn’t hold him in higher regard than I do, and I’m OK with that.

We’ve done the Big Dog RBs, Second Tier RBs, Third Tier RBs, Fourth Tier RBs, and Serviceable RBs, now it’s time to look at the Scrap Pile.  These are RBs that you’ll only use for bye weeks or in case of injury.

Ahman Green – He’s on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off an injury-plagued season.  However, he is still a starting RB (for the time being) so he’s worthy of a roster spot.  If he can stay healthy and Houston’s passing attack is on, there could be some decent weeks for Ahman.

DeAngelo Williams – He had close to 900 total yards last year while finishing strong (242 yards & 3 TDs in his last three games).  He also had 121 yards in Week 6 and 82 in Week 13 so he displayed some signs of life.  However, the Panthers brought in Jonathan Stewart for a reason.  DeAngelo may hold the starting job out of the gate, but he could easily be lapped.

Chester Taylor – If Adrian Peterson misses some time, Chester Taylor will vault into the Top Ten the weeks All Day is out.  As is, he’ll spell All Day and pick up some decent 40-60 yard games.  He’s probably the #1 handcuff out there.

Felix Jones – This dude is fast.  He’s from the University of Arkansas like Jerry Jones.  MB3 is the goods, but Felix will be taking carries for sure.  He’s also one of the best handcuffs given Dallas’ potent offense.

Deuce McAllister – He’ll turn 30 this year and is coming off an injury.  He also has to share the load with Reggie Bush in a pass-happy offense.  Things are stacked against him.  He will be the short-yardage guy though so he should score some TDs.  That said, I don’t see much more than 500 yards out of him.

Justin Fargas – You’ve got to feel a little bad for Fargas.  He ran for over 1000 yards last year for the sorry Raiders.  His reward?  The drafting of Run DMC.  He still should get some play though.  He clearly has big-game ability as evidenced by his three games of 139+ yards.  He averaged 106 yards and 0.6 TDs in Weeks 9-13.

Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall is interesting as the Steelers already have Willie Parker.  He’s got great speed with a great build.  He had a great Junior year for Illinois rushing for 1681 yards and 17 TDs.  He added 34 receptions.  Given his size over Fast Willie, he could get the goal line touches.

Ahmad Bradshaw/Derrick Ward - Ahmad didn’t do much in the regular season (190 yards), but looked pretty solid in the playoffs (208 yards in 4 games).  Ward looked good early, but didn’t didn’t do anything after Week 6 except for a big 154 yard effort in Week 13.  It’s likely that all three Giant RBs (Brandon Jacobs included) will get some touches.  If Jacobs goes down Bradshaw and Ward will have bigger roles.

Chris Brown – He was one of my Sleeper picks last year for Tennesse, and he did decent at times.  Now he’s on to Houston.  He seems older than the 27 he turned in April so there is still tread on the tires.  If (and most likely when) Ahman Green goes down, he’ll likely be thrust into the starter role.  Never much of a TD threat, he scored 4 in the last 5 weeks of the 2007 season. 

Chris Johnson – Replacing Chris Brown in Tennessee will be rookie Chris Johnson out of East Carolina.  He’s listed behind 2007 rookie Chris Henry, but the Titans must not have been thrilled with him given their 1st round selection of Johnson.  He’s not a big back, but could be a nice change-of-pace to LenDale White.  He’s lighting quick (4.24).  He had 1423 yards and 17 TDs rushing and another 528 yards and 6 TDs receiving.  He’ll have to prove he can stay healhty, but he’s a Home Run waiting to happen.

Jerious Norwood – His reign in Atlanta was short-lived as Michael Turner has stolen his starting gig.  He is lighting-quick though and should be a nice change-of-pace to Turner.  If Turner proves he can’t stay healthy or is not up to the task of being the Lead Dog, Norwood’s value will increase.

Warrick Dunn – Until he hangs up his cleats, I will not overlook Mr. Dunn.  He has quietly surpassed the 10,000 yard mark for his career.  How many people would have expected that.  Even in a down year he had close to 1000 total yards.  If Cadillac Williams isn’t up for the task, Dunn will still have some fantasy relevance.

Tatum Bell – If Kevin Smith doesn’t make the adjustments needed to be an NFL back suddenly Tatum Bell becomes interesting.  That said, the ceiling is rather low for Bell, and I wouldn’t get my hopes up if I were him.

Ladell Betts – He proved he’s more than capable if CP goes down.  However, Portis has been very durable in his career.  Betts will take touches away to keep CP fresh, but don’t look for major numbers out of Betts barring an unforseen injury.

Ryan Torain – He plays for Denver so never count him out.  The rookie out of Arizona State probably has the highest high-low differential in the league.

DeShaun Foster – He’s backing up Frank Gore now so there’s not much hope for Foster.  However, if Gore goes down, Foster is an adequate replacement.

Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith – If Larry Johnson suffers a setback, the load will likely be shared between Kolby, who ran decent down the stretch, and rookie Jamaal Charles out of Texas.

Previous Previews
Quarterbacks