LestersLegends.com

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It’s that time of year again. It’s time for Jay Bruce to put on a show.
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Last year through July he hit .261 with 53 runs, ten HRs, and 53 RBI in 376 at bats. Then he caught fire and hit .338 in his next 133 at bats from August through October with 27 runs, 15 HRs, and 29 RBI. In 2009 he hit .207 with a .724 OPS before the All-Star Break and .326, 1.078 after it.
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It seems like he’s up to his old tricks again.
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Bruce actually put on a power show in May hitting .342 while clubbing 12 home runs with 33 RBI and a ridiculous 1.141 OPS, but then cooled to hit .236 in June and July with just five home runs and 19 RBI. It became frustrating for fantasy owners no doubt. In one league I nearly traded him for some speed as I couldn’t get him in the lineup over Matt Kemp, Mike Stanton, Cameron Maybin, and David Ortiz.
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Thankfully a deal never materialized because Bruce is on another bender. Since August 8th he is hitting .414 with nine runs, five home runs, and 17 RBI. In his past four games he has 11 RBI, with at least two in each game.
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Sometimes it’s the deals that don’t happen that end up helping you the most.
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I can see sitting him against a tough lefty, but don’t avoid southpaws completely. Bruce has eight home runs in 120 at bats against them and a solid .851 OPS.
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Also check out:

• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Speed Demons Vol. 9
• Is J.J. Hardy Back?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 RBI Guys Vol. 8
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Strikeout Kings Vol. 8
• Is Alejandro De Aza Worth Owning?

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The Reds are blessed with two of the best young hitters in the game in Joey Votto (27) and Jay Bruce (24 in April). Votto made the jump from above-average fantasy first basemen to MVP. I’m not saying that Jay Bruce can become MVP material, but he has the ability to become an elite power-hitting outfielder.
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Bruce topped 20 home runs for the third straight season, setting a career high with 25. He also set career highs in runs (80), RBI (70), and OPS (.846). Perhaps most importantly, he hit .281. Considering he hit .254 and .223 respectively in his first two seasons, last year’s jump in average was monumental.
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It wasn’t that way for the whole season though. Through July he was hitting just .261 with ten HRs in 376 at bats. That average was higher than his career average entering the season (.240), but it was far from spectacular. He made up for it by 53 runs and driving in another 41.

Now an early look at the NL Central.

1. Can the Cubs’ offense bounce back?
Geovany Soto had a miserable season hitting .218. He was brilliant in Triple-A Iowa in 2007 and had an amazing Rookie season. I fully expect him to bounce back in 2010. Even if he is an average of his past two years, he’d have a decent season. Just don’t reach for him. Assuming Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy, they should have better seasons as well. Marlon Byrd hit 70 percent of his HRs at Rangers Ballpark so I expect him to take a step back in Chicago. At his age (34), I don’t expect Derrek Lee to match the 35 HRs and 111 RBIs. As a whole, though, I do think the Cubs will be much-improved on offense next year thanks to the addition by subtraction of Milton Bradley.

2.  Can Carlos Marmol get it done at Closer?
His BAA was equally nasty as a closer and a setup man, though his ERA and WHIP both improved when he took over at closer. He has both the stuff and demeanor to get the job done. I think he can be a high-end closer next year despite entering the season with just23 career Saves.

3.  Is Joey Votto set to bust out big time?
Joey’s average and OPS  soared dramatically in his second full season. Despite playing in 20 fewer games he had 13 more runs, six more doubles, one more HR, the same amount of RBIs, and 11 more walks. As long as he stays healthy, Votto should emerge as one of the games best hitters.

4. How about Jay Bruce?
I’m not sure he’ll light the world on fire, but he should be improved. Hard not to when you hit .223. I’m encouraged by the way he played in September when he hit .353 with 4 HRs and 16 RBIs in 34 ABs.

5. Is Lance Berkman’s dip a sign of things to come?
I don’t think so. He’s about as steady as they come. Gone are the days of 40 HRs and 120 RBIs, but he should still be good for 30 & 110.

6. Is Tommy Manzelli going to be a viable fantasy option?
I don’t think so. He didn’t exactly put up monster numbers for Triple-A Round Rock last year, hitting .289 with 68 runs, 9 HRs, 56 RBIs, and 12 SBs in 530 ABs.

7.  Is Casey McGehee for real?
He had an impressive Rookie season hitting .301 with 58 runs, 16 HRs, and 66 RBIs in 355 ABs. I like the way he responded in September hitting .337 with 5 HRs and 26 RBIs after struggling in August hitting .241. I wouldn’t want him as a starter, but his 2B/3B eligibility make him a decent bench option.

8.  Can Garrett Jones continue to be a power threat?
He certainly hit his share with 21 in 314 ABs for a 14.9 AB/HR ratio. It is highly unlikely that he can maintain that ratio. His OPS of .939 was also significanly higher than the majority of his minor league stints.

9.  Will Mark McGwire be a distraction?
I don’t think so. He came clean early enough where is shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Cards.

10.  Will Ryan Franklin continue to be an elite closer?
Franklin was one of the surprise closers last year when he recorded 38 saves with a 1.92 ERA. His numbers were significantly worse after the All-Star break.

0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, .165 BAA
3.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .284 BAA

While he was a pleasant surprise last year, I see no reason to believe he can match his 2009 production.

Here’s a list of Outfielders who could break out in 2009.

Jay Bruce – Bruce showcased some power with 21 HRs in 108 games, which translates to 31 in a full season, which coincidentally is the number he hit last year between the Reds and in AAA.  His 2007 numbers project to 162 games as he rose through the ranks from Single A to Double A to Triple A.  Does that mean I believe he’ll hit 31 HRs next year?  No.  It hink he may hit a few more.  He had 15 HRs in 64 games after the All-Star Break.  At that pace, he’d hit 38 in a full season.  I don’t think he’s quite up to that task, but 33 HRs isn’t out of the question, especially in that park.  I think he’ll improve his average, which was just .254 last year.  He hit .334 in AAA so .270 isn’t out of the question.  I expect him to produce 80 Runs and RBIs as well.  He’ll need to hit Lefties much better.  He hit .190 against them wiht 3 HRs and 9 RBI in 137 At Bats, compared to .286, 18, and 43 in 276 ABs against Righties.

Nelson Cruz - Nelson raked last year hitting .330 with 19 Runs, 7 HRs, and 26 RBI in 31 games.  This after hitting .342 with 37 HRs, and 99 RBI in 103 AAA games.  He has a history of killing AAA pitching (.328 since 2006) and then struggling in the bigs (.231 in 2006 & 2007).  That changed last year when he finally put it together.  For the first time he’ll start in the Majors.  In a full year he should hit .280 with 75+ Runs, 25+ HRs, and 80+ RBI.

Justin Upton - Many thought last year would be his breakout year.  I think he takes steps this year.  Aside from his stint in A+ and AA ball in 2007 when he combined to hit .319, he hasn’t really delivered on any level.  That said, he has the tools to hit .270 with 70 R, 8 Triples, 20 HRs, and 70 RBI.

Denard Span -  Span was groomed to replace Torii Hunter, but missed out on his chance when Carlos Gomez was acquired in the Johan Santana trade with the Mets.  Some feel he had a better Spring than Gomez, but the team wanted to have a piece of that trade in the lineup on Opening Day.  Span made the most of his opportunity when he was called up.  He hit .294 with 70 Runs, 47 RBI, and 18 SBs in 93 games.  That projects to 122 R, 82 RBI, and 31 SBs.  I don’t think he’ll score that many Runs, but he easily could hit .280 with 100 R, 30 Doubles, 15 HRs, 80 RBI, and 30 SBs.

Adam Jones - Jones made a solid debut with the Orioles after coming over in the Erik Bedard trade, hitting .270 with 61 Runs, 7 Triples, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, and 10 SBs in 132 games.  In 2007 he tore up AAA pitching for Tacoma of the Pacific League hitting .314 with 25 HRs and 84 RBI in 101 games.  His numbers held up pretty well with Baltimore.  He’s a young kid, just 23, and should continue to progress this year hitting .280 with 80 Runs, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, and 15 SBs.

Shin-Soo Choo – South Korea’s Shin-Soo Choo had a mini-breakout last year hitting .309 with 68 Runs, 28 Doubles, 14 HRs, and 66 RBI in 94 games for the Indians.  Those numbers project to 117 Runs, 48 Doubles, 24 HRs, and 114 RBI in a full season.  While I don’t expect him to reach those lofty numbers, I could see him bat .300 with 90 Runs, 40 Doubles, 20 HRs, and 90 RBI. 

Elijah Dukes – You know the M.O. on Dukes.  Plenty of talent and plenty of issues.  The move to Washington seemed to be a good one for Dukes both on and off the field.  On it he scored 48 Runs with 13 HRs, 44 RBI, and 13 SBs in 81 games, which projects to 96 R, 26 HR, 88 RBI, and 26 SBs.  I don’t think he’ll quite reach those numbers, but I can see 80 R, 20 HRs, 75 RBI, and 20 SBs if he stays healthy both physically and mentally.

Cameron Maybin – Though his taste in the bigs last year (.500 with 9 Runs, 16 Hits, 4 SBs in 8 games) was much briefer than his 2007 taste (.143, 8 R, 7 H, 5 SBs in 24 games) it was far more successful.  He has swiped 73 bases in 299 minor league games.  He very well could hit leadoff for the Marlins, which could put his Run total near 100 with 25-30 SBs if he stays healthy and doesn’t need more seasoning in AAA.  He’ll turn 22 in April.

Chris Dickerson – Dickerson made an impressive debut with the Reds last year hitting .304 with 20 Runs, 31 Hits, 9 Doubles, 2 Triples, 6 HRs, 15 RBI, and 5 SBs in 31 games.  His slugging percentage was an impressive .608.  Before you start handing him the Rookie of the Year, his high slugging percentate in the Minors was .479.  That came last year though so it’s encouraging.  I think where he’ll help you is in the Runs and Stolen Bases departments.  He has 135 SBs in 622 Minor League games.  If he gets a full season in he could score 80 Runs and swipe 25 bases.  I’d expect him to hit about 25 Doubles and 15 HRs bringing that Slugging Percentage below .500.

Wednesday, August 6th
Johnny Peralta went 5 for 5 with 2 Runs, 2 Doubles, a HR, and 2 RBI.  Albert Pujols went 4 for 4 with 2 Runs, a Double, a Grand Slam, and 4 RBI.  Mark DeRosa went 2 for 3 with a Run, a Double, a Grand Slam, and 5 RBI.  Denard Span went 3 for 5 with a Triple, 4 RBI, and a SB.  Richie Weeks and Randy Wynn each had 4 Hits.  Vladimir Guerrero had 4 RBI.  Mike Cameron, Jason Bartlett, Ty Wiggington, Garrett Anderson, Brian McCann, Dan Murphy, Billy Butler, Casey Blake, Ryan Ludwick, and Jacoby Ellsbury (3 RBI) each had 3 Hits.  Jay Bruce, Carlos Pena, Cliff Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Markakis, Aaron Rowand, Jim Thome, and Rod Barajas each had 3 RBI.  Ben Zobrist and Mark Teixeira each scored 3 Runs.

Jeff Karstens nearly had a Perfect Game.  He settled for a Complete Game two-hit Shutout to improve to 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA.  Tim Lincecum gave up 2 Runs on 5 Hits in 8 Innings with 8 Ks to improve to 12-3 with a 2.68 ERA.  Kyle Kendrick gave up 4 Hits in 6 scoreless Innings to improve to 10-5.  Shaun Marcum gave up 1 Run on 3 Hits in 7 Innings with 7 Ks to improve to 6-5 with a 3.44 ERA.  Cha Seung Baek gave up 2 Runs in 6-1/3 Innings to improve to 4-5.  John Danks gave up 1 Run on 4 Hits in 6-2/3 Innings with 6 Ks to improve to 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA.  Tim Wakefield gave up 1 Earned Run on 4 Hits with 6 Ks in 6 Innings to improve to 7-8 with a 3.67 ERA.  Randy Johnson gave up 2 Runs in 7-1/3 Innings with 7 Ks, but lost.  Pedro Martinez gave up 2 Earned Runs on 4 Hits in 6-1/3 Innings, but lost.