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After a rough road trip to Tampa Bay Joe Nathan is out as closer and Matt Capps is in. Nathan blew two consecutive saves and saw his ERA jump from 2.25 to 8.44 over the process. Unfortunately Capps has been equally ineffective, blowing one save and allowing the Rays to cut a 3-1 deficit in half. Capps’ ERA jumped from 1.35 to 4.50. Obviously you should grab Capps if he is available in your league, though I anticipate Nathan reclaiming his job at some point.

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All of the players have average draft positions at Mock Draft Central of 200 or higher.
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First Base:  Ike Davis, New York Mets
Davis, hitting behind Jose Reyes and David Wright, has plenty of room for growth in his second season. Not that his .271-73-19-71-3 rookie debut was disappointing. I think the Mets will have one of the better offenses in the National League this year if they can stay healthy. Davis will reap the rewards. Ike’s ADP is 201.
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Second Base:   Omar Infante, Florida Marlins
There are a few things I like about Omar. First, he hit .309 over the past three years. Second, with second base, third base, and outfield eligibility he provides great flexibility for fantasy owners. Finally, his ADP of 232 makes him an exceptional value.
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Third Base: Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies
If you’re looking for home runs or stolen bases at third base, you can look elsewhere. He should however contribute in the other three categories, especially while Chase Utley is out and the number two slot is his. He’s a decent option at a 243 ADP.
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Shortstop:  Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers
Peralta is another three category producer. He should score a fair amount of runs (averaged 79 over past six years), hit a decent amount of home runs (averaged 17.8 over past six years), and drive in a decent amount of RBI (averaged 78.5 over past six years). He also gives you third base eligibility, and is a nice value at a 253 ADP.
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Catcher:  Russell Martin, New York Yankees
The Yankees could breathe new life into Russell Martin’s fantasy value. It seems like forever ago that he was a fantasy star, but he’s only 28. In the Yankees offense and calling Yankee Stadium home, I expect Martin to be solid, but not spectacular, which is fine given his ADP of 249.
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Right Field:  Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins
Cuddy gives you outfield and first base eligibility. He hits a decent clip (.270 hitter), scores a fair amount of runs (93 in each of the past two years), has some pop (14 HR last year), is a decent run producer (averaged 87.5 the past two years), and even swipes a few bases (combined for 13 the past two year). He’s just a solid addition any fantasy team, and with an ADP of 225 the price is right.
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Center Field:  Peter Bourjos, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Talk about value, Bourjos has an ADP of 363. Bourjos has excellent speed, making 30 stolen bases seem like a reasonable number. He has some power too, which could lead to double-digit home runs. It may be a year early, but he certainly seems like a nice bargain.
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Left Field:  Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates
I’m expecting big things from Tabata. I’m not looking for power numbers, but he should hit around .300, score 90+ runs, and steals 30+ bases. If you miss out on some of the other speedsters (Bourn, Pierre, Gardner), Tabata can be a solid backup plan.
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Starting Pitcher:  Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Kennedy went 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .228 BAA, and 168 strikeouts in 194 innings last year. He was 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .219 BAA after the All-Star Break. With an ADP of 215 he’s a rock solid addition to any fantasy staff.
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Closer:  Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
There are a number to choose from, but given Nathan’s past dominance and 206 ADP, I went with him. Nathan was a top five closer before Tommy John surgery. He is getting his stuff pack, and could easily be a top ten closer in 2011. The Twins tied for 13th with 40 saves last year despite losing Rauch. Even if Nathan isn’t all the way back, he should still be good enough to save 30 games while posting a low ERA and WHIP.
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Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks
• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Closer Rankings

Twins fans have to  have mixed emotions over this weekend’s developments. Joe Nathan tested his elbow and confirmed people’s fears. He will have Tommy John surgery, which will knock him out for the year. It’s not all bad news for Nathan fans. Once recovered from the surgery, pitchers can come back even stronger. This very well could have extended Nathan’s career.

That brings us to the other Twins news. If Nathan can stick around a while longer he can play with Joe Mauer, the Twins catcher that just signed a ten-year $189 million contract. He’s a heck of a ballplayer, but I fear it will just keep the Twins in mediocrity. With such a big amount locked up on one player, the Twins could struggle to put the pieces around him. That same concept failed miserably with the Timberwolves and Kevin Garnett. Mauer will get the praises for sticking with his hometown team, but do note that Mauer did not give his club the hometown discount. In fact, he never has. That doesn’t make him a bad person, but just make sure you are giving him credit for what he deserves.

Whenever your star closer breaks camp to have his surgically-repaired elbow looked at, all the excitement surrounding the start of a new year comes to a screeching halt. The joy of finally having outdoor baseball in Minnesota again is replaced with the fear that they will suffer a similar fate as the Mets in their new ballpark. 

For now they are just running some tests on the elbow, but is certainly is concerning. Hopefully they are just being extra cautious. As long as Dr. James Andrews is not mentioned regarding Nathan, I can breathe a little easier as a Joe Nathan owner. Still, I can’t help put feel something in the pit of my stomach after plunking down $18 of my fictional $330 in a slow auction for his services. My fingers are crossed.

In other news, Dodgers catcher Russell Martin will be out four to six weeks with a strained groin, putting his availability for the season opener in question. It’s unfortunate because Martin beefed up 25 pounds in an effort to return to his former All-Star level.

Not nearly as important as Nathan and Russell, Kansas City’s Alex Gordon will miss nearly a month with a broken thumb. He could also miss Opening Day.

Happy Sweet 16 Emily!

Image courtesy of Icon SMI

Few players have been as consistently dominant as Twins closer Joe Nathan the past six seasons. His ERA has never been above 2.70, and last year’s 2.10 was the second highest of the stretch. His WHIP has never been above 1.02. Only once was his BAA above .187. Only once did he record fewer than 77 strikeouts. He has had at least 36 saves every year. He’s just consistently been one of the best closers in the league.

The only thing that concerns me is the move to Target Field. The past two years he has pitched better when he plays indoors.

2009
26 saves, 2 blown saves, 1.59 ERA, 0.86 WHIP indoors
21 saves, 3 blown saves,  2.79 ERA, 1.03 WHIP outdoors

2008
26 saves, 2 blown saves, 1.01 ERA, 0.74 WHIP
13 saves, 4 blown saves, 1.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

From 2005-2007 though he pitched better outdoors. 2004 was a virtual wash.

He’s also been worse after the All-Star Break the past two years.

2009
23 saves, 2 blown saves, 1.31 ERA, 0.73 WHIP Before
24 saves, 3 blown saves, 2.88 ERA, 1.14 WHIP After

2008
27 saves, 2 blown saves, 1.13 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
12 saves, 4 blown saves, 1.61 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

The splits from the past two years are a little alarming for a pitcher that will be moving to a park where weather could play a key role at the beginning and the end of the year. Especially one that’s 35. Of course, Mariano Rivera is five years his senior and still getting it done. 

So does the move to Target Field end Joe Nathan’s fantasy reign? Hardly. I still have him as my 4th ranked fantasy closer (click to see rankings). I just think his numbers will take a slight dip.

Prediction:  38 saves, 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 75 Ks

Past profiles:
Arizona Diamondbacks:  Brandon Webb
Atlanta Braves: Yunel Escobar
Baltimore Orioles:  Adam Jones
Boston Red Sox:  Clay Buchholz
Chicago Cubs:  Geovany Soto
Chicago White Sox:  Jake Peavy
Cincinnati Reds:  Joey Votto
Cleveland Indians:  Grady Sizemore
Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Florida Marlins: Cameron Maybin
Houston Astros: Lance Berkman
Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Howie Kendrick
Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney
Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Hart